Purging Turkish army will leave it more politicised

Subject Turkey's post-coup military. Significance Ever since the failed July 2016 coup, the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) have faced unending expulsions, retirements, detentions and trials. The aim of subordinating the military to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) raises questions about the armed forces' capacity, ideology and morale. Impacts The military's self-image as guardian of Turkish secularism has almost evaporated. A new military generation may have arisen, neither Islamist nor Kemalist but non-political and interested in technology and social media. The military still values NATO membership as the only international organisation where Turkey has veto power. The AKP's defeat in local elections, one of its biggest losses in years, may mark the start of the decline of its 17-year-old power.

Subject Indonesia's new military leadership. Significance Indonesian President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo is seeking more stable civil-military relations ahead of the elections due in 2019. A key role of the military is to assist central and local governments with infrastructure programmes. Yet Jokowi’s appointment in December of Air Chief Marshal Hadi Tjahjanto as head of the Indonesian National Armed Forces (TNI), replacing General Gatot Nurmantyo, underlined his preference for a low-key military leader who has no known political ambitions. Impacts The military will be under pressure to avoid engaging politically with the upcoming local elections. Indonesia may prioritise the upgrading of port infrastructure in keeping with Jokowi’s ‘maritime axis’ doctrine. Jakarta’s navy will blow up more foreign boats as part of Indonesia’s ‘sink the vessels’ policy to combat illegal fishing.


Subject Local election upset. Significance Local elections have dented President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s hold on power. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) appears to have lost both Ankara and Istanbul, which it has held since 1994, and other large cities. The AKP faces a difficult choice between cracking down on its rivals and seeking coexistence with them -- something Erdogan will be loath to do. Impacts Tough controls on social media and freedom of expression are likely. There will be some increase in anti-government activity. Some infrastructure projects in Istanbul and Ankara may halt. Increased political tension will deter investors. Turkey will distance itself further from the West.


Author(s):  
Marco Bünte

Myanmar has had one of the longest ruling military regimes in the world. Ruling directly or indirectly for more than five decades, Myanmar’s armed forces have been able to permeate the country’s main political institutions, its economy, and its society. Myanmar is a highly revealing case study for examining the trajectory of civil–military relations over the past seven decades. Myanmar ended direct military rule only in 2011 after the military had become the most powerful institution in society, weakened the political party opposition severely, coopted several ethnic armed groups, and built up a business empire that allowed it to remain financially independent. The new tutelary regime—established in 2011 after proclaiming a roadmap to “discipline flourishing democracy” in 2003, promulgating a new constitution in 2008, and holding (heavily scripted) elections in 2010—allowed a degree of power-sharing between elected civilian politicians and the military for a decade. Although policymaking in economic, financial, and social arenas was transferred to the elected government, the military remained in firm control of external and internal security and continued to be completely autonomous in the management of its own affairs. As a veto power, the military was also able to protect its prerogatives from a position of strength. Despite this dominant position in the government, civil–military relations were hostile and led to a coup in February 2021. The military felt increasingly threatened and humiliated as civilians destroyed the guardrails it had put in place to protect its core interests within the tutelary regime. The military also felt increasingly alienated as the party the military had established repeatedly failed to perform in the elections.


Subject The police, military and government in the Philippines. Significance Social Weather Stations polling released on October 6 gave President Rodrigo Duterte 64% net approval, implying that, for all his drugs and crime crackdown's international controversy, most voters support him. However, Duterte's approach to the crackdown risks undoing post-Marcos efforts to separate the functions of the police and Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), and to remove the army from involvement in law and order issues. Impacts Duterte's pledges of further funding for the military and police will be popular with these organisations. This should mitigate the risk of any police and military plots against Duterte, rumours of which occasionally surface. The army's role in the practical delivery of government policy is likely to grow. Turf wars between the military and police are still a risk, and could undermine security efforts. Further extensions to the crime crackdown are likely.


Subject The impact of the failed July coup on civilian-military relations. Significance The psychological impacts of the attempted coup across political life cannot be understated; it has far-reaching implications for the political, bureaucratic and even ideological structures of the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). In the aftermath of the attempted putsch, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is more determined than ever to alter the civilian-military machinery of government in Turkey radically. Impacts The purge and radical reforms will bring into question the TSK's operational and strategic reliability for Western partners. A permanently weakened TSK would ease the way for constitutional reforms strengthening Erdogan's grip on the state. It will take years to rebuild the confidence and prestige the military has lost among broad swathes of Turkish society. Any criticism of the TSK reforms, domestically or from abroad, will meet the authorities' fierce condemnation.


Significance Tensions between the Gulf states and Iran have escalated significantly in 2016, in the wake of Iran's signing of a landmark deal in 2015 that brought to an end the decade-long dispute over its nuclear programme. The response of Iran's military to the heightened tensions will be partly influenced by the new chairman of the Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS), the country's top military body, Major General Mohamad Hossein Bagheri. Impacts A more assertive and non-compromising IRGC will increase pressure on President Hassan Rouhani as he seeks re-election in 2017. Improvements in intelligence collection and dissemination are likely in Syria, aimed at reducing Iranian casualties. The military and government are likely to clash soon over the defence budget and its allocation. The government will try to keep the IRGC in check by tipping the media off about alleged financial wrongdoings. With the next US president expected to adopt a harder-line stance on Iran, the diplomatic rapprochement may be reversed partially.


Subject Counterterrorism in Burkina Faso. Significance Despite recent gains against jihadist groups, in recent months attacks have moved beyond the more insecure north and started to occur more frequently in the east and parts of the centre. Separately, authorities are growing increasingly intolerant of public dissent and protest, while revelations of abuses by the military risk scuppering crucial local community support necessary for counterinsurgency operations. Impacts The government will face growing political and public pressure to end persistent strikes. Patriotic support for the armed forces remains widespread, but growing revelations of abuse will tarnish its image. Opposition criticisms of the government’s counterterrorism strategy will increase but avoid directly blaming the military. Public dissatisfaction may grow with the Sahel Group of Five (G5) regional force if the slow pace of its operations persists. The prosecution of alleged coup plotter Gilbert Diendere will enjoy public backing amid calls for justice for victims of the old regime.


Subject The political role of the armed forces. Significance The armed forces have recently assumed an unusually high political profile. The current government has appointed generals to high-level positions and ordered a large-scale intervention led by the army in Rio de Janeiro state security institutions. These measures, many of them unprecedented, are an attempt by President Michel Temer to boost his popularity as a ‘tough-on-crime’ leader. The armed forces are one of the few public institutions enjoying high levels of trust among Brazilians. Impacts Despite recent protest calls for a military coup, support for such a move is restricted to a radical minority. Resistance against further reliance on the military for domestic law enforcement will rise, including among senior officers. Bolsonaro will focus his message on crime, promising to bring more military members into his cabinet, including the Education Ministry.


Subject Facebook and anti-Rohingya violence. Significance On November 6, Facebook released the conclusions of a study it had commissioned on the use of its platform to foment ethnic violence in Myanmar. The report found that systematic manipulation of social media -- primarily by the military and extremist Buddhist groups -- stoked communal tensions and incited violence against Rohingya Muslims. Impacts Authoritarian regimes across the world will abuse tighter content filters for censorship. Non-democracies will embrace Chinese dual-use technology for their effectiveness and affordability. Profit will trump societal impact in Facebook’s business strategy, despite pressure for digital responsibility.


Author(s):  
Aditi Grover ◽  
Jeffrey Foreman ◽  
Mardie Burckes-Miller

Purpose This paper aims to explore the forces at work that negatively influence the self-image perceptions of young women, causing them to strive for an “ultra-thin” ideal. Design/methodology/approach Focus groups explore why and how perceived self-image influences young women’s body and perceptions and, consequently, health. Thematic qualitative analysis explores the realm of information and emotions involved with the thin-ideal. Findings Social contagion theory emerged with a significant impact caused by network influencers and the spread of information and emotions within social networks forces that sustain the need to be ultra-thin, even though there is abundant knowledge about adverse effects. Research limitations/implications Future research should address limitations involving representativeness and generalizability. Practical implications Social marketing programs, including social media, should stress healthy eating habits while focusing on the importance of the self and de-emphasizing the “thin-ideal” image. Originality/value Results will assist in developing more informed and effective prevention programs, including social media campaigns, as preventative healthcare to reduce the risk of the spread of eating disorders and promote psychological health of at-risk young adults.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document