Brazil infrastructure spending will face obstacles

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Daily Life ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Large Cities ◽  
Fiscal Constraints ◽  
Export Competitiveness

Significance Brazilian infrastructure requires urgent investment. Fiscal constraints are strengthening the government’s inclination towards privatisation and concession plans. As part of the Investment Partnerships Programme (PPI), auctions regarding operation and administration of airports, ports and railways in the country have attracted foreign investors and exceeded the government’s initial targets. Impacts Sluggish infrastructure investment will affect daily life in large cities and hinder long-term export competitiveness. Political turbulence may undermine foreign investors’ interest in Brazil. New rounds of infrastructure auctions will partially offset low public investment.

The new Zambian president faces long-term challenges

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Development ◽  
Social Costs ◽  
Debt Restructuring ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Constraints ◽  
Reform Programme ◽  
The Social ◽  
Voter Suppression ◽  
Spending Cuts

Significance Hichilema's surprise win came despite extensive voter suppression and intimidation attributed to former President Edgar Lungu and the ruling Patriotic Front (PF) against supporters of Hichilema’s United Party for National Development (UPND). Impacts The broad scope of Hichilema’s reform programme will pose difficulties of prioritisation, particularly within current fiscal constraints. Higher copper prices may mitigate some of the social costs associated with debt restructuring and spending cuts. The cancellation of a meeting between President Joe Biden and Hichilema over LGBT rights concerns may complicate relations with Washington.

scholarly journals Government public infrastructure investment and economic performance in Spain (1980-2016)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose Perez-Montiel ◽  
Carles Manera
Keyword(s):  
Public Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Autonomous Communities ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Acyclic Graphs ◽  
Multiplier Effects

Purpose The authors estimate the multiplier effect of government public infrastructure investment in Spain. This paper aims to use annual data of the 17 Spanish autonomous communities for the 1980–2016 period. Design/methodology/approach The authors use dynamic acyclic graphs and the heterogeneous panel structural vector autoregressive (P-SVAR) method of Pedroni (2013). This method is robust to cross-sectional heterogeneity and dependence, which are present in the data. Findings The findings suggest that an increase in the level of government public infrastructure investment generates a positive and persistent effect on the level of output. Five years after the fiscal expansion, the multiplier effects of government public infrastructure investment reach values above one. This confirms that government public infrastructure investment expansions have Keynesian effects. The authors also find that the multiplier effects differ between autonomous communities with above-average and below-average GDP per capita. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no research uses dynamic acyclic graphs and heterogeneous P-SVAR techniques to estimate fiscal multipliers of government public investment in Spain by using subnational data.

Working from home and long-term housing wealth inequality in large cities of advanced economies

2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Reza Tajaddini ◽  
Hassan F. Gholipour ◽  
Amir Arjomandi
Keyword(s):  
Wealth Inequality ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Working Environment ◽  
Housing Wealth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Large Cities ◽  
Working From Home ◽  
Advanced Economies

Purpose The purpose of this study is to explain the potential long-term impacts of working from home on housing wealth inequality in large cities of advanced economies. Design/methodology/approach This study is descriptive research and It supports the arguments by providing some emerging evidence from property markets in developed countries. Findings The authors argue that due to the unique nature of the COVID-19 crisis, it will have a different and long-term impact on housing wealth inequality. Changes in the working arrangements of many professionals will change the housing demand dynamic across different suburbs and may lead to a reduction of the housing wealth gap in the long term. In this paper, the authors propose five mechanisms that may impact housing wealth inequality. Research limitations/implications Long-term data is required to test the proposed conceptual model in this study and the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on housing wealth across and within suburbs of large cities. Practical implications Policymakers and regulators may benefit from the discussions and suggestions provided in this study and consider the proposed avenues on how new changes in the working environment (remote working) may result in a reduction of housing wealth inequality. Originality/value This study presents a new perspective about the potential long-term impacts of working from home that is posed by the COVID-19 pandemic on housing wealth inequality in large cities of developed economies.

scholarly journals The duration of global agri-food export competitiveness

2017 ◽  
Vol 119 (6) ◽  
pp. 1378-1393 ◽  
Author(s):  
Štefan Bojnec ◽  
Imre Fertő
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Revealed Comparative Advantage ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Export Competitiveness

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the pattern, duration and country-level determinants of global agri-food export competitiveness of 23 major global agri-food trading countries. Design/methodology/approach A large panel data set is compiled to facilitate assessment of the pattern, duration and country-level determinants of global agri-food export competitiveness using a revealed comparative advantage index. Findings The results suggest that the duration of revealed comparative advantage is heterogeneous at the agri-food product level. Long-term survival rates as revealed by the comparative advantage indices are among the highest for the Netherlands, France, Belgium, the USA, Argentina and New Zealand. The level of economic development, the share of agricultural employment, subsidies to agriculture and differentiated consumer agri-food products increase the likelihood of failure in the duration of comparative advantage, while the abundance of agricultural land and export diversification reduce that likelihood. Originality/value The framework is conceptually innovative in how it models the likelihood of failure in the duration of comparative advantage and assesses implications. Export competitiveness is a crucial factor in long-term global farm business survival as it fosters opportunities for business prosperity on global markets.

Does public investment crowd-out private investment in India

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shanmugam Muthu
Keyword(s):  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the crowding-in or crowding-out relationship between public and private investment in India. Design/methodology/approach The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is used to estimate the long run relationship between public and private investment using annual data from 1971-1972 to 2009-2010. Findings Based on the empirical findings, it is observed that aggregate public investment has a positive effect on private investment both in the long run and the short run. In contrast to the findings of previous studies, no significant impact of public infrastructure investment on private investments is found in the long run, while non-infrastructure investment has a positive impact on private investment in the short run. Among the various categories of infrastructure sector, a positive and significant impact in the case of electricity, gas and water supply is observed. Similarly, the result indicates that public investment in machinery and equipment and construction have substantially influenced the private sector machinery and equipment in the long run and the short run. In the case of the role of macroeconomic uncertainty, the results find a negative and significant impact on private investment and the impact is higher in the short run than in the long run. Originality/value The present study extends the literature in three important ways: First, the study attempts to capture heterogeneity of public investment as well as disaggregate effects of two different categories of public infrastructure on private investment. The extent to which two different types of public assets impact the private investment in machinery and equipment investment is also examined. Second, ARDL model is used to examine the long-run relationship between public and private investment. Third, the study incorporates macroeconomic uncertainty into the empirical analysis to examine the role of macroeconomic volatility in determining private investment decision.

Public infrastructure investment and fiscal sustainability in Latin America: incompatible goals?

2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis Carranza ◽  
Christian Daude ◽  
Angel Melguizo
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fiscal Space

Purpose – This paper aims to understand the relationship in developing countries between fiscal consolidation and public investment – a flexible part of the budget that is easier to cut during consolidation effort, but with potentially negative growth effects. Analyzing in detail the case of Peru, the paper explores alternative fiscal rules and frameworks that might help create fiscal space for infrastructure investment. Design/methodology/approach – The paper analyses trends in public and total infrastructure investment in six large Latin American economies, in the light of fiscal developments since the early 1980s. In particular, the paper explores the association between fiscal consolidations (improvements in the structural fiscal balance) and public infrastructure investment rates. In the second part, the paper analyzes recent changes in the fiscal framework of Peru and shows how they were conductive in creating additional fiscal space. Findings – The authors argue that post-crisis fiscal frameworks, notably fiscal rules that are increasingly popular in the region, should not only consolidate the recent progress towards debt sustainability, but also create the fiscal space to close these infrastructure gaps. These points are illustrated in a detailed account of recent developments in the fiscal framework and public investment in the Peruvian case. Originality/value – The paper contributes new evidence to the literature on fiscal consolidation and the composition of government expenditures. While the literature based on evidence from the 1990s has argued that fiscal consolidation plans in Latin America have almost always led to a significant reduction in public infrastructure investment, the paper finds less clear cut evidence when extending the analysis backwards (1980s) and forwards (2000s). The example of the case of Peru is used to explore fiscal institutions and rules that might be useful for other developing countries that face important infrastructure gaps.

New Croatian government must tackle structural malaise

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Viability ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Economic Nationalism ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Eastern Europe ◽  
Economic Liberalism ◽  
Rare Opportunity ◽  
Commercial Environment

Subject Croatia's new government. Significance Following early elections in September, the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) and the Bridge of Independent Lists (Most) have agreed to form a new, centre-right coalition under the premiership of Andrej Plenkovic. While the basic composition of the new government remains the same as the last, the present coalition has eschewed its predecessor's nationalist and protectionist bent in favour of political and economic liberalism. Croatia has thus embraced European conventions at a time when the EU's policy prescriptions are being widely challenged in much of Central-Eastern Europe (CEE). Impacts The new government has a rare opportunity to enact meaningful fiscal and structural reforms vital to Croatia's long-term economic viability. Promised reforms to the commercial environment could make Croatia a more attractive place for foreign investors to establish operations. The election of a mainstream, pro-European government will momentarily arrest the CEE-wide trend towards political and economic nationalism.

Infrastructure spending may pick up in Central Europe

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Europe ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Economic Forecast ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscapes

Subject The expected rebound from declining infrastructure investment in Central Europe in 2016-17. Significance In its latest Economic Forecast, the European Commission expects a short-lived decline in public investment in three Central European (CE) countries. This is due to a 'one-off effect', as absorption rates for EU structural and cohesion funds dip across the region, with the closure of the 2007-13 programme period. This will weigh on headline GDP, with the Commission forecasting relatively low 2016 growth rates of 2.1% for Hungary, 2.3% for the Czech Republic and 3.5% for Poland. Impacts Solid growth rates in CE will attract private investment to infrastructure projects, particularly once GDP expands faster in 2017. Infrastructure investment will focus on such traditional sectors as transport and industry rather than financial services in 2016-17. Low borrowing costs and private companies' strong demand for short- and long-term loans will facilitate an upturn in projects in 2017. Given the diverse fiscal and political landscapes across CE, divergence in deals and mixed funding schemes are expected after 2016. CE governments may introduce lending schemes designed to shield new infrastructure projects from financial volatility.

Vietnam eyes PPPs to plug infrastructure gap

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Private Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Infrastructural Development ◽  
Eurasian Economic Union ◽  
New Public ◽  
The Government ◽  
To Come ◽  
Asean Economic Community

Subject The emerging infrastructure investment framework in Vietnam. Significance Vietnamese infrastructure lags some regional competitors; Hanoi estimates that investing 500 billion dollars could resolve this, but needs 300 billion of this to come from public-private partnerships (PPP). Following problems with Vietnam's PPP regulatory framework, a new framework was introduced in April and a new public investment law in January, among other measures seeking to attract private capital into national infrastructure. Such measures are timely: the ASEAN Economic Community is coming in late 2015, while Vietnam signed a free trade deal on May 29 with the Eurasian Economic Union; capitalising on both requires Vietnamese infrastructural development. Impacts The government may need to delay some projects while private capital comes online. As government and industry adapt to the new infrastructure investment framework, updates to planning instructions may be needed. A concerted anti-corruption campaign would support efficiency drives in infrastructural development, but progress will be slow.

Polls leave room for late election surge in Costa Rica

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
National Liberation ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
National Integration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Citizen Action ◽  
Run Off

Subject Costa Rica election preview. Significance As campaigning enters its final stages ahead of the February 4 presidential and legislative elections, the opposition National Liberation Party (PLN) leads the polls. However, popular frustration with the established political parties has led to a surge in momentum for the National Integration Party (PIN), which looks likely to trigger a second round run-off. Impacts The legislative polls will dictate how much clout the president has in Congress, with no one party looking set for a majority. The incumbent Citizen Action Party (PAC) will perform poorly due to Solis’s perceived ineffectiveness and the ongoing ‘cementazo’ scandal. Renewed infrastructure investment could bring long-term benefits for trade and tourism.

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