Greece’s Syriza may lose 2019 vote to come back later

Significance The minority Syriza government has declared its intention to row back from tax and pension reforms to regain popularity ahead of the upcoming polls and the autumn national elections. Since its rushed-out programme, the 11-percentage-point opinion poll lead that opposition New Democracy (ND) had built up has nearly halved, but Syriza has angered its international creditors, who see it as having reneged on post-bailout commitments. Impacts EU partners could revoke debt repayment concessions forcing the government to call on reserves. Interest rates on government bonds will rise as international investors fear a return to fiscal uncertainty. The electorate could turn from Syriza over the longer term, because of its repeated policy U-turns.

Humanomics ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Issa Salim Moh’d ◽  
Mustafa Omar Mohammed ◽  
Buerhan Saiti

Purpose This paper aims to identify the appropriate model to address the financial challenges in agricultural sector in Zanzibar. Since the middle of 1960, clove production has continually and significantly decreased because of some problems and challenges that include financial ones. The financial intermediaries such as banks, cooperatives and micro-enterprises provide micro-financing to the farmers with high interest rates along with collateral requirements. The numerous programmes, measures and policies adopted by the relevant parties to find out the solutions to the dwindling clove production have failed. Design/methodology/approach The authors will review and examine several existing financial models, identify the issues and challenges of the current financial models and propose an appropriate Islamic financing model. Findings The numerous programmes, measures and policies adopted by the relevant parties to find out the solutions to the dwindling clove production have failed. This study, therefore, proposed a Waqf-Muzara’ah-supply chain model to address the financial challenge. Partnership arrangement is also suggested in the model to mitigate the issues of high interest rates and collateral that constrains the financial ability of the farmers and their agricultural output. Originality/value The contribution of the agricultural sector to the economic development of Zanzibar Islands is considerable. As one of the important agricultural sectors, the clove industry was the economic backbone of the government of Zanzibar. This study is believed to be a pioneering work; hence, it is the first study that investigates empirically the challenges facing the clove industry in Zanzibar.


Significance The RBA has cut its growth forecasts amid rising job losses, weakening demand and increasing signs that the latest COVID-19 lockdowns will continue to slow the economy until the pace of the vaccine roll-out programme can be increased. Impacts Although the RBA is independent, the government will hope it keeps rates low ahead of the elections due next year. Commercial lenders could raise interest rates independently of the RBA if inflation remains high. Wage pressures will re-emerge as labour markets tighten but may be mitigated by the extent of underemployment. Economic growth will be uneven across the country in coming months as pandemic-related restrictions vary by location.


2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (3/4) ◽  
pp. 146-156
Author(s):  
Bhupendra Singh ◽  
Neelu Jyoti Ahuja

Purpose This paper aims to popularize information retrieval from palm leaf manuscripts among computer scientists to make available the guidance of the age-old heritage in shaping the future. Design/methodology/approach With computer technology penetrating every aspect of life, information retrieval algorithms can be exploited to help build a system which can dig into the ocean of knowledge from these manuscripts. Findings The knowledge in them covers all aspects of life. Be it religious beliefs, literature, science, mathematics, or any other. However, due to discontinuation of practice of copying their content on fresh leaves, they now possess a fragile life which needs to be preserved at the earliest. The modern means of digitization can help in their preservation. Research limitations The Government of India and other organizations are doing commendable job of preserving and safeguarding country’s heritage and age-old knowledge system through the movement of digitization. In the years to come, the agonizing problem of manuscripts degradation will be eradicated completely. However, next when it will come to mining the knowledge treasure out of these manuscripts, we would be confronted with another helpless situation. Practical implications The digitization process would capture the manuscripts from present physical palm leaf to digital image form by clicking high-quality pictures. All the text in a palm leaf will be available in the form of images, but on these images, a simple search for any word would not be possible. Originality/value Working towards mining the treasure of knowledge from the palm leaf manuscripts, hordes of challenges have been outlined. Over and above the problem of preventing decay to palm leaf manuscripts is the challenge of deciphering text, image analysis, information retrieval and search. Search is further associated with issues of meaningful and useful extraction through semantic analysis. This paper advocates the dire need for systematic research to be undertaken in this field opening up avenues for past knowledge to guide future prospects in several domains.


Significance At its first meeting of 2017, on January 10-11, the COPOM reduced the benchmark Selic interest rate to 13%. The 75-basis-point (bp) rate cut decision, the largest in nearly five years, accelerated the monetary easing cycle that started in October 2016. Economic recession has been relieving inflationary pressures and opening room for more intense cuts in interest rates. Impacts Further reductions of interest rates may contribute to controlling government debt. Private debt renegotiations at lower interest rates may facilitate a recovery in domestic demand and output. Any positive effects of monetary policy on activity may help contain popular dissatisfaction with the government.


Subject Outlook for Myanmar's ceasefire process after eight ethnic armed groups agreed to sign up. Significance Myanmar's government will sign a ceasefire agreement on October 15. Despite the deal's "nationwide" title it covers only eight of 15 ethnic armed groups, raising security and political concerns ahead of national elections on November 8. Impacts The government will push for current non-signatory ethnic armed groups to join the ceasefire. The National League for Democracy will foster links with ethnic groups, anticipating the post-election period. The military vote may be used to manipulate the election's result.


Subject The emerging infrastructure investment framework in Vietnam. Significance Vietnamese infrastructure lags some regional competitors; Hanoi estimates that investing 500 billion dollars could resolve this, but needs 300 billion of this to come from public-private partnerships (PPP). Following problems with Vietnam's PPP regulatory framework, a new framework was introduced in April and a new public investment law in January, among other measures seeking to attract private capital into national infrastructure. Such measures are timely: the ASEAN Economic Community is coming in late 2015, while Vietnam signed a free trade deal on May 29 with the Eurasian Economic Union; capitalising on both requires Vietnamese infrastructural development. Impacts The government may need to delay some projects while private capital comes online. As government and industry adapt to the new infrastructure investment framework, updates to planning instructions may be needed. A concerted anti-corruption campaign would support efficiency drives in infrastructural development, but progress will be slow.


Subject New unemployment data methodology. Significance China’s urban unemployment rate averaged just under 5% during the first half of 2018, according to new official statistics. The government claims that a new methodology adopted to produce them gauges the level of joblessness better than the previous, largely useless, figures. However, the new data still do not reveal the whole picture: they exclude workers in rural areas (nearly half the workforce) and mask instability in the urban job market. Impacts The growing number of workers in the gig economy will stage strikes and protests in order to improve their pay and working conditions. Rural women, the elderly, disabled and poorly educated workers in particular will struggle to find secure employment. Imbalances in the employment market will remain a serious challenge for the Chinese government for many years to come.


Subject The implications of a sharp rise in foreign holdings of local currency-denominated government bonds in Emerging Europe. Significance A surge in capital inflows into the Czech Republic and Turkey is increasing the scope for a disorderly sell-off in financial markets, as both the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the ECB begin simultaneously withdrawing monetary stimulus. While international investors’ appetite for higher-yielding assets remains strong because of low (or in some cases negative) bond yields in advanced economies, emerging markets (EM) are still vulnerable to the removal of stimulus by the Fed and the ECB. Impacts Global stock markets are at record highs: the rally in the S&P 500 equity index is now the second-strongest bull run in US history. Price pressures in Central Europe, particularly core inflation, will be subdued, except in the Czech Republic. This will allow central banks to maintain loose monetary policies which in turn will support regional bond markets.


Significance The Kurdish referendum has complicated Abadi’s efforts to win reselection after provincial and national elections, expected in April 2018. Abadi -- an Arab Shia -- is vying for voters within a fractured Shia constituency. The referendum, which could break up the country, is deeply unpopular among the Shia base; Abadi, however, needs an alliance with the Kurds to confront Shia political rivals. Impacts The referendum is likely to go ahead, and could prove a flashpoint. Iraq will boost diplomatic engagement with Washington, Riyadh and Ankara. Mainstream Shia parties will work together to limit the rise of Shia militia leaders. A sharp increase in IS terrorist attacks could undermine faith in the government.


Subject Nigerian banking sector. Significance Some of Nigeria’s largest banks made significant profits in 2017 despite the country’s recession, benefitting mainly from high-yielding Nigerian Treasury Bills. This is unlikely to be repeated this year, with yields falling as the government replaces expensive domestic debt with cheaper Eurobonds, and banks attempt to shore up their balance sheets. Higher oil prices will help this process, yet many smaller banks are struggling to replicate their larger rivals' success. Impacts A restructuring of telecommunications company 9Mobile’s loan would benefit banks' non-performing loan numbers. Any uptick in Niger Delta insecurity could negatively impact banks, as most have significant loans with the upstream oil and gas sector. The CBN may issue more loans via commercial banks to small businesses and farmers in the run-up to next year's national elections.


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