Outlook for a future EU-US trade agreement is poor

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Policy ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Near Future ◽  
The Eu

Subject EU-US trade. Significance US President Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ trade policy threatens the highly interconnected transatlantic economy. This presents a serious challenge to the EU and certain member states more than others, and resolving this tension is unlikely in the near future. Impacts Some US protectionist trade tendencies are likely to continue post-Trump. Trump's accusations that the euro is unfairly undervalued raises the (faint) prospect of an even more profound transatlantic dispute. The importance of the US economy to European firms enables Washington to enforce secondary sanctions.

Unstable politics may make trade deals uncertain

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Services ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Ideological Divergence ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
Trade Partners ◽  
The Eu

Subject Politics and trade talks. Significance Understanding the factors that determine how long trade negotiations take will help businesses navigate the uncertainty, as the UK government prepares to negotiate trade agreements once it leaves the EU. The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between Canada and the EU took seven years to finalise. Less comprehensive renegotiations of international agreements can be shorter, including the US-Mexico-Canada agreement, which took less than two years. Impacts UK sectors highly exposed to the EU or United States, including automotive and financial services, face prolonged investment uncertainty. Timing of national elections, lobbying and the ideological divergence between trade partners will determine post-Brexit trade deal talks. Continued polarisation of major economies' electorates will delay or stop other global deals, including on foreign aid and climate change.

EU-UK FTA leaves open the prospect of future conflict

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Free Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Eu

Significance The agreement offers zero quotas and tariffs on most goods, but there is little coverage on services while trade flows face disruption from significant non-tariff barriers. Impacts The deal will make it slightly easier to reach a UK-US free trade agreement, though strong divisions remain. The strict conditionality associated with the FTA suggests Euroscepticism will remain an important feature of UK politics. The process and costs associated with Brexit makes it less likely that Eurosceptic member states will attempt to leave the EU.

Japanese leadership will revive TPP

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Global Standards ◽  
The Us ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Partnership Agreement ◽  
Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

Subject The revival of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Significance US President Donald Trump in January announced Washington's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP), bringing its implementation to a standstill. Without US participation, the TPP looked dead, since the US economy is larger than the other eleven economies combined. Nevertheless, after months of uncertainty, the project was revived by the eleven members under the leadership of Japan. Impacts Failure or watering down of a TPP-11 would leave China a greater role in setting global standards and norms. Progress towards the TPP-11 could speed up the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and EU-Japan economic partnership agreement. Other states will seek TPP membership in the future, with Taipei and Seoul likely candidates.

EU-Iran payment scheme to focus on humanitarian trade

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Payment Scheme ◽  
Special Purpose Vehicle ◽  
Comprehensive Plan ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Eu

Subject EU-Iran humanitarian trade. Significance Following the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the EU is close to launching a mechanism to facilitate trade with Iran in spite of stringent US sanctions. This special purpose vehicle (SPV) is likely to be released in the coming weeks. Its scope will be less ambitious than originally conceived and will, in its initial version, be restricted to trade in humanitarian and sanctions-exempt goods. Impacts The SPV may strengthen political support in Iran for continued participation in the JCPOA. Unity within the EU will be tested as some member states are more hesitant about disrupting the transatlantic partnership. As the humanitarian impact of US sanctions increases, pushback from the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives is more likely.

Brexit will affect EU and UK trade policy differently

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Policy ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Rules Of Origin ◽  
Foreign Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Subject UK and EU trade policy. Significance The United Kingdom’s departure from the EU will affect both the EU’s economic importance and its ability to realise trade objectives. The impact of the rupture will be greater still for the United Kingdom, which has to develop a trade policy from scratch and reconstruct its trading relationships with scores of countries in addition to the EU. Impacts Rules of origin mean that some UK firms will lose access to foreign markets even where London has concluded a replacement trade agreement. EU and UK demand for imports from the rest of the world will be reduced by the economic impact of Brexit and COVID-19 disruption. Replacing EU trade agreements with third countries will take longer for the UK government because COVID-19 will take priority.

Trade Policy in American Economic History

2018 ◽  
pp. 304-324
Author(s):  
Doug Irwin
Keyword(s):  
Trade Policy ◽  
Economic History ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Foreign Competition ◽  
Political Debate ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The North ◽  
The Us

This chapter reviews the evolution of US foreign trade and trade policy from the colonial period to the present. International trade has been a small but important part of the US economy throughout the country’s history. The Constitution gives Congress the authority to levy import duties. The use of this power has been extremely controversial ever since, with the political debate revolving over whether tariffs on imports should be high or low. This debate has pitted export-oriented producers against domestic producers facing foreign competition. After the Smoot Hawley tariff of 1930, which coincided with the Great Depression, protectionism was given a bad name and the United States began to turn to reciprocal trade agreements with other countries. The led to the formation of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in 1947 and later agreements such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1993.

Prospects for the US economy to end-2016

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Volatility ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Eu

Subject Prospects for the US economy to end-2016. Significance A disappointing employment report for May, with only 38,000 jobs added, has fuelled speculation that the US economy may be in for a year of slowing economic growth in 2016. The Federal Reserve (Fed)'s decision on June 15 to delay further any interest rate hike only highlights that concern, which now is also exacerbated by the financial volatility induced by the United Kingdom's vote to leave the EU.

AIFMD passport: Europe must try harder

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 10-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Sims ◽  
Patrick Brandt ◽  
Greg Norman
Keyword(s):  
Financial Services ◽  
Investment Fund ◽  
Cayman Islands ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Private Placement ◽  
The Us ◽  
Near Future ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Alternative Investment

Purpose To explain two papers published by the European Securities and Marketing Authority (ESMA) covering the application of the mar-keting “passport” under the Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive (AIFMD). Design/methodology/approach Explains ESMA’s first paper, containing an advice to the European Parliament, Council and Commission (collectively the Trilogue) on the potential application of the AIFMD passport to non-EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers (AIFMs) and Alternative in-vestment Funds (AIFs), and a second paper, containing ESMA’s opinion on the current functioning of the AIFMD (currently used by EU AIFMs marketing EU AIFs in the EU) and National Private Placement Regimes (NPPRs, used for marketing by non-EU AIFMs and non-EU AIFs). Findings The ESMA papers were disappointing because they gave far less guidance and encouragement than anticipated that AIFs located in major jurisdictions such as the US and the Cayman Islands will be any easier to market to EU professional investors in the near future. Practical implications AIFMs (both inside and outside the EU) who are already using, or intending to use, the NPPRs should take some comfort that it seems highly unlikely that these regimes will be removed in the near future. Originality/value Practical guidance from experienced financial services lawyers.

Brexit will accentuate global market distortions

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Economic Outlook ◽  
The Eu

Subject Outlook for post-Brexit markets. Significance The UK vote to leave the EU is exacerbating distortions in financial markets. Government bond and equity prices are rising, sending contradictory signals about the global economic outlook. Yields on US and German bonds partly retraced their steps last week as initial fears about the consequences of the Brexit vote diminished. However, the yield on ten-year Treasuries remains 20 basis points (bp) lower than on referendum day, June 23, and the S&P 500 index stands close to a record high. The expanding universe of negative bond yields is fuelling investor appetite for risk assets, including equities. Impacts Markets may be underestimating the likelihood of higher US interest rates given recent signals of improvement in the US economy. Demand for safe-haven assets could stay strong, with the price of gold rising 5.6% since the referendum. Heightened uncertainty may mean that the oil price rally is over; it could even reverse given the persistent supply glut.

Partial UK-US trade deal to join China and USMCA deals

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
The United States ◽  
Significant Activity ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Trade Policy ◽  
United States Mexico

Subject US trade policy after the China and USMCA deals. Significance US President Donald Trump approved the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) on January 29 after Mexico approved it in December. Canada will almost certainly approve it, having begun the ratification process on January 27. The USMCA signing, coming soon after Chinese and US officials signed phase one of their trade agreement on January 16, is the most significant activity on international trade thus far by the US administration. Impacts US trade policy will continue to focus on bilateral deals. Trump benefits politically from attacking US trade imbalances, which his supporters view as having only hurt US industry and commodities. Trump may see the USMCA and China deals as fleeting successes; he might redouble his efforts and pursue stricter deals if re-elected.

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