Macron is looking to enhance France’s industrial base

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Industrial Base ◽  
The Past ◽  
Rural France

Subject France's manufacturing outlook. Significance France’s manufacturing sector has been the most attractive in Europe for foreign investors over the past ten years but the structural challenges within the sector, most notably the shift from manufacturing towards an economy based more on services, look set to deepen. Impacts Plans to reindustrialise parts of rural France may attract investment, but getting people to live there will be difficult. The ECB is likely to loosen monetary policy, and manufacturers borrowing at lower rates would boost euro-area industry. The threat of social unrest in urban areas may deter potential investors.

“Fête de la Soupe”: rural identity, self-representation, and the(re)-making of the village in France

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 296-314 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hélène B. Ducros
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Rural Setting ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rural Identity ◽  
Organizational Challenges ◽  
The Past ◽  
Rural France ◽  
The Village ◽  
Do So

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore a grassroot festival in rural France organized around the concept of soup. The annual fête de la soupe held in a village in Auvergne provides a small-scale example of the ways in which space, time and festivalization interact in placemaking. Design/methodology/approach Ethnographic research highlights the motivations and experiences of the organizers and volunteer-participants, as well as some of the organizational challenges. Findings Revealing that the profit motive and economic outcomes are not dominant, this paper shows instead that the fête constitutes a space of relation-building between place and people, between people themselves and an introspective moment over the past and future of place as “rural”. While preserving rurality symbolized and mediated by the exchange of soup as the ultimate peasant dish, the festival is also an opportunity for villagers to revitalize the rural and showcase it as a place of creativity. Originality/value The study addresses the experience of volunteers and organizers in festivals, uses qualitative methods to do so and focuses on festivals in the rural setting, filling three gaps identified by others in the literature.

China and 'Grexit' risks weigh on EMs globally

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Listed Companies ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Emergency Measures

Significance This month, 3 trillion dollars had been wiped off the value of all listed companies since a seven-year high on June 12, undermining confidence in the government's ability to steer the market. These developments along with the lingering risk of a Greek exit ('Grexit') from the euro-area, despite the provisional agreement reached on July 12, are taking a toll on emerging market (EM) asssets more broadly. Impacts The emergency measures aimed at stemming the sell-off in Chinese equities will help stabilise the stock market. Foreign investors' exposure to China's retail-based equity market is likely to remain limited. The renewed Brent crude price fall, down 14.2% since early May, will pressure oil exporters' currencies while benefiting oil importers.

Excess euro-area liquidity raises bank lending risks

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Basel Iii ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reserve Requirements ◽  
Regulatory Standards ◽  
Excess Liquidity

Significance The ECB stopped purchasing bonds this month after running its asset purchase programme (APP) since March 2015. The APP flooded commercial banks with liquidity in excess of their minimum reserve requirements, which they could use to grant new loans. The ECB achieved its goal of increasing credit to the private sector, raising domestic demand and warding off price deflation, but commercial banks have kept large amounts of excess liquidity. Impacts Euro-area banks' average profitability has improved during the APP scheme, but less accommodating monetary policy may reverse this trend. The high prudential ratios the Basel III regulatory standards require should make euro-area banks more resilient to monetary tightening. The ECB's mopping up may pose difficulties to banks relying on excess liquidity to meet the Basel III coverage liquidity ratio.

Intra-elite rivalries shape Algerian economic policies

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sharp Fall

Significance The statement comes against a move by Bouteflika to undercut an effort by Ouyahia to promote privatisation as part of a strategy for dealing with the sharp fall in oil and gas revenue, which has saddled the country with large fiscal and balance-of-payments deficits. Bouteflika’s intervention took the form of a decree stating that his office must have the final say on the sale of any state asset. It was issued within days of Ouyahia announcing a new privatisation policy. Impacts There is a risk that the combination of supply restrictions and loose monetary policy will drive up inflation. The import ban will attract foreign investors to import substitution projects, but they will be loath to put in much capital and technology. Checking Ouyahia’s ambitions is an important element in the plans for Bouteflika’s circle to prolong their grip on power.

Euro-area GDP growth will slow in 2019

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Lower Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Large Size ◽  
Area Growth ◽  
Risks Assessment ◽  
European Parliament Elections ◽  
The Impact

Subject Reasons behind the euro-area growth slowdown. Significance In its Winter 2019 interim forecasts, the European Commission downgraded its expectations for euro-area growth to 1.3% and 1.6% for 2019 and 2020, respectively, from 1.9% and 1.7% three months earlier. At its January meeting, the ECB Governing Council foreshadowed lower growth, shifting its risks assessment, saying that downside risks will dominate. Impacts The European Parliament elections could have a destabilising impact on growth in some countries. Monetary policy can do nothing to cushion the impact of lower growth caused by trade conflict. In case of recession, monetary policy stimulus will be constrained by the large size of the ECB balance sheet.

Low euro-area growth supports case for ECB action

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Private Consumption ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
National Data ◽  
Deposit Rate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Area Growth ◽  
Near Term

Significance This is the same pace as in the third quarter, marking the eleventh consecutive quarter of expansion. For January-December, growth accelerated to 1.5% from 0.9% in 2014, in line with the December ECB staff projection. National data were generally below market expectations, but confirmed that the recovery remains on track. Impacts Private consumption will remain the primary growth driver in the near term, supported by recovering labour markets and low inflation. Inflation will stay subdued owing to falling oil prices; the recovery is too lacklustre to kick off a rise in prices. The ECB will expand its QE programme in March, cutting the deposit rate deeper into negative territory. After its recent rebound, the euro should weaken again as the ECB eases monetary policy further.

Market nerves roil Turkey and Central Europe

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Inflection Point ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Guidance

Significance Markets have taken badly the Fed's more hawkish policy guidance for 2017, not expecting such a shift in monetary policy so soon. The shift in US monetary policy comes just as the ECB is preparing the ground for the gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus. While Turkish assets are the most vulnerable partly because of the severe escalation in political risk, the Polish zloty is also at risk thanks mainly to its status as one of the most liquid EM currencies. Impacts Investors see global financial markets at an inflection point as monetary policy gives way to fiscal policy as the main source of stimulus. This monetary-to-fiscal shift will fuel uncertainty about the direction of asset prices. Rising oil prices will allay concerns about deflation in the euro-area. As major Emerging Europe currencies suffer, the ruble is rising against the dollar amid oil price rises and Trump’s Russia-friendly remarks.

Neither Beijing nor Washington will budge on tariffs

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Trade Disputes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Taiwan Strait ◽  
The Belt And Road

Significance Over the past few month the world’s two largest economies have exchanged threats to impose tariffs on each other. The first set on both sides took effect on July 6. The bilateral trade disputes create uncertainty in global financial markets. Current and future tariffs will hurt both economies and others around the world too. Impacts China will try to compensate by seeking cooperation with other regions and promoting initiatives such as the Belt and Road. China is likely to continue acting toughly on other issues, such as the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. Tariffs and weaker domestic demand will put downward pressure on China’s manufacturing sector in particular. Volatility in China's stock markets will have spill-over effects on other Asian markets and test the resilience of these economies.

The risks surrounding ECB stimulus withdrawal are high

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Core Inflation ◽  
Bear Market ◽  
The Past ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
Export Competitiveness ◽  
Equity Funds ◽  
Equity Index

Subject Monetary divergence Significance After reaching multi-year highs in the second half of 2017, euro-area manufacturing and services surveys are now signposting slower growth. Meanwhile, euro strength is dampening inflation pressures. Thus the ECB will be cautious in its plans to ‘normalise’ its ultra-loose monetary policy. Impacts The euro has gained 15% against the dollar over the past twelve months; growing divergence with US policy will fuel further strength. Further euro strength is likely to put more downward pressure on euro-area core inflation and could damage export competitiveness. Markets are likely to remain volatile; the S&P 500 equity index is experiencing its second-most volatile year outside a bear market. Investors’ appetite for ‘risk assets’ will remain strong; 65 billion dollars has gone into emerging market bond and equity funds in 2018.

Prospects for euro-area to end-2020

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Bounce Back ◽  
The Eu

Subject Prospects for euro-area to end-2020. Significance The euro-area is facing its most challenging economic downturn to date. The ECB has responded with strongly supportive monetary policy and both Germany and the EU have adopted unprecedented fiscal measures, increasing the prospects of a stronger recovery in the third and fourth quarters, and building momentum for a strong bounce back in 2021.

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