‘FARC’ revival poses major security threat in Colombia

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Party ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
Armed Struggle ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Phase

Subject 'FARC' revival. Significance Nine dissidents formerly of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) were reportedly killed on August 30, in an air strike President Ivan Duque claimed would send a “clear message” to rearming rebels. The operation followed the publication of a video on August 29 in which former FARC commander and lead peace negotiator Luciano Marin, alias ‘Ivan Marquez’, rejected his group’s peace process, calling upon former rebels to join a “new phase of the armed struggle”. Impacts Duque will portray the group as mere criminals, but its self-identification as the FARC will stick, to the detriment of the peace process. The remaining leadership of the demobilised FARC political party has condemned the calls to rearm but could face reprisals. While alliances would strengthen the new ‘FARC’, failure to achieve such deals may lead to conflict with FARC splinter groups or the ELN. Rebel attacks will increase as the new group establishes itself, especially in the lead-up to October’s elections.

Drug violence set to rise in Ecuador

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Penal Code ◽  
Border Region ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Police Station ◽  
Bomb Attack ◽  
Drug Violence

Significance The kidnappings follow a series of violent incidents in the area, including a bomb attack on March 20 that killed three soldiers and the bombing of a police station on January 27 that injured more than 20. The violence comes as armed groups in neighbouring Colombia fight for control of lucrative drug networks in the wake of that country’s peace process with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Impacts Right-wing politicians and parties will use the escalation in violence to call for a strengthening of the police, military and penal code. Supporters of the former President Rafael Correa will benefit if Moreno is unable to contain violence to the border region. Escalating violence will unnerve investors but it is unlikely to reduce inward investment unless the conflict spreads south.

Mozambique’s northern conflict will enter new phase

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Intervention ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
New Phase

Significance The troops arrived amid delays in the deployment of a planned Southern African Development Community (SADC) intervention force and uncertainties over how the different military initiatives will align. Impacts Foreign military intervention and investments in counter-insurgency will reinforce the ruling FRELIMO party. Factional infighting within FRELIMO over who should succeed President Felipe Nyusi will increase. The peace process with RENAMO risks unravelling unless renewed progress can be made quickly.

Poor peacebuilding risks power vacuums in Colombia

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Aid Workers ◽  
National Liberation ◽  
Framework Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Local Populations ◽  
Colombian Government ◽  
The Government

Subject Shadow governance in Colombia. Significance On March 30, the Colombian government and the National Liberation Army (ELN) signed a framework agreement in Caracas formally to launch peace talks. Meanwhile, negotiations between the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) are in their final stages. The coordination of negotiations with Colombia's two leftist guerrilla groups is crucial in ensuring the security and stability of their territorial strongholds after they make peace. Impacts Necessary peacebuilding cooperation with guerrillas will leave the government open to attacks from the opposition and peace process critics. The success of foreign aid workers will depend on their building local democratic capacities rather than assisting the government. State efforts to tackle BACRIM encroachment by force could destroy any hard-won legitimacy with local populations.

Myanmar policy zest could suffer in 2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Party ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Government Support ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Pressure ◽  
One Year ◽  
The One ◽  
The Military

Significance Her comments hint at the political difficulties facing the one-year-old NLD-led administration in 2017. Impacts Myanmar holds 19 by-elections on April 1, which will measure the NLD’s popularity. Government support for the military will aid civil-military ties but alienate minorities and democratic activists. International pressure over the Rohingya controversy will mount. Only modest progress is likely on the ethnic peace process this year, which will frustrate Beijing. The NLD could face a challenge from a new political party on the left in 2020.

Colombia post-war insecurity to preclude defence cuts

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
Military Leaders ◽  
Military Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
The Government ◽  
Post War

Subject Military reform plans. Significance The declining intensity of Colombia's civil war has encouraged politicians and security officials to re-assess the function and structure of the armed forces. Military leaders have sought to diversify into new activities, such as policing and reconstruction in order to avoid budget cuts. In its latest announcement, the government declared that, for now, troop numbers will not be reduced. However, in the context of declining combat operations and a costly post-conflict reconstruction programme, cuts to the military budget are possible over the medium term. Impacts A permanent end to the civil war may precipitate a reduction in military purchases of helicopters and other counterinsurgency equipment. Nevertheless, armed crime groups will present an ongoing security threat, potentially justifying the maintenance of high military spending. Any future efforts to cut back military powers and budgets will provoke resistance from the institution and its congressional allies. Military supporters may seek to offset its decline by calling for greater army intervention in urban areas during peaks of gang violence.

Hezbollah and Israel will avoid intentional escalation

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Party ◽  
Small Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Position ◽  
Military Vehicle ◽  
Increasing Risk ◽  
Face Saving ◽  
New Phase

Significance Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah -- a Shia militant group and political party -- last month announced that the organisation would shoot down any Israeli drones in Lebanese airspace and declared that its conflict with Israel had entered a ‘new phase’. Nasrallah also said Hezbollah would no longer adhere to self-imposed restrictions confining attacks to the Shebaa Farms (a small area of disputed territory held by Israel). That followed an Israeli airstrike that killed two Hezbollah members in Syria and subsequent alleged drone and air attacks inside Lebanon. Hezbollah responded by targeting an Israeli military vehicle travelling near the border -- the first incident of its kind since 2015. Impacts Hezbollah will be wary that any confrontation could jeopardise its strengthened political position inside Lebanon. Dealing with tensions through limited, face-saving retaliatory actions nonetheless carries a risk of miscalculation. Israel will prioritise diplomacy and strikes against supply lines outside Lebanese territory to disrupt Hezbollah’s weapons programmes. Further Israeli strikes on targets in Lebanon or Hezbollah strikes outside the Shebaa Farms area will be indicators of increasing risk.

Taliban mull transition from jihad to politics

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Women's Rights ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Women’S Rights ◽  
Political Movement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Future Strategy ◽  
Political Settlement

Significance Khalilzad's efforts to kick-start a peace process have had a significant impact on Taliban thinking about future strategy. Some see transforming the insurgency into a political movement as the best way forward. Impacts Russia says it supports the US-led peace drive, but its rival efforts may be more disruptive than helpful. Women's rights have no powerful external champion given US haste for a deal and could be rapidly eroded. Disarming the Taliban's armed forces will become an obstacle if a political settlement is agreed.

Colombia violence to rise as elections approach

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Transitional Justice ◽  
Local Community ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Major Step ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Era ◽  
The Government ◽  
Roll Out

Subject Peace process. Significance The 2016 peace deal between the government and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, FARC) was a major step towards ending more than half a century of armed conflict and was hailed by many as the dawn of a new era for Colombia. However, the roll-out of the deal is facing institutional, social and financial challenges amid increasing polarisation fuelled by President Ivan Duque’s attempts to reform the Special Jurisdiction for Peace (JEP), the transitional justice system created to facilitate the peace process. Impacts The reopening of the debate on the statutory law of the JEP has set a dangerous precedent for future negotiations with other armed groups. Dissident FARC groups constitute a growing threat to security in a number of peripheral regions. Military scandals threaten further to undermine faith in the state’s commitment to peace, encouraging more demobilised rebels to rearm. Acts of intimidation and violence against local community leaders will increase ahead of October’s regional and local elections.

Philippines violence will rise ahead of election

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Freedom Fighters ◽  
Power And Energy

Significance High-impact attacks by the ASG, the New People's Army (NPA) and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) in recent months threaten internal security and the struggling southern peace process ahead of national and local elections in May 2016. Impacts The mining, power and energy sectors will be targets of violence. Companies in these sectors may need to increase security expenditure. The Philippines armed forces will need to expand internal security efforts.

Extremism is rising in Europe's security forces

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Sensitive Information ◽  
Security Threat ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Intelligence Agency ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
News Reports ◽  
Armed Services

Subject Extremism in security forces. Significance According to recent news reports, Germany's military intelligence agency launched investigations into 550 cases involving far-right extremism in the armed forces in 2019. The figures shed light on the risks of radicalisation and infiltration of armed and other security forces by far-right extremists. Across Western Europe, the risk of far-right violence has increased, prompting investigations into security forces personnel. Infiltration of armed services poses a security threat by giving extremists access to weapons, training and sensitive information. Impacts Extreme right groups are becoming better organised and equipped. Far-right political parties are unlikely to show support for individuals found guilty of extremism within the security forces. The risk of Islamist radicalisation within the security forces is greater in France than other countries.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document