Myanmar policy zest could suffer in 2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Party ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Government Support ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Pressure ◽  
One Year ◽  
The One ◽  
The Military

Significance Her comments hint at the political difficulties facing the one-year-old NLD-led administration in 2017. Impacts Myanmar holds 19 by-elections on April 1, which will measure the NLD’s popularity. Government support for the military will aid civil-military ties but alienate minorities and democratic activists. International pressure over the Rohingya controversy will mount. Only modest progress is likely on the ethnic peace process this year, which will frustrate Beijing. The NLD could face a challenge from a new political party on the left in 2020.

Opposition weakness will empower Canada's Trudeau

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Policy Agenda ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Labour Unions ◽  
Federal Level ◽  
Political Clout ◽  
One Year ◽  
The One

Significance Canada's opposition parties are engaged in protracted, 18-month contests to elect their next leaders, who will challenge Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the governing Liberals in the 2019 federal election. With Trudeau passing the one-year mark in office, many of both parties' most prominent figures are sitting the races out, judging Trudeau's electoral position unassailable. However, once the leadership contests gain momentum, they will reveal important political and policy splits that could offer early indications of Trudeau's prospects for re-election. Impacts The governing Liberals will legislate mostly unchallenged at the federal level. However, provincial premiers may be a source of more robust opposition to Trudeau's policy agenda. The internal divisions in the NDP may diminish the political clout of labour unions in Ottawa. A pro-business centrist Conservative leader could alienate social conservatives and shake loose a splinter movement.

Muslim Brotherhood will struggle to recover in Egypt

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Muslim Brotherhood ◽  
Political Islam ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Critical View ◽  
The Government ◽  
One Year ◽  
The One ◽  
State Functions

Significance Cairo’s aversion to political Islam has seen it dismantle the aging leadership of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood (MB), most of whom are either dead, in prison or scattered. The remaining members are divided, with many taking a highly critical view of the MB’s activities during the one-year presidency of Mohammed Morsi. Impacts Poor economic management has led to growing resentment from Egypt’s poor and those outside the political and military elite. The government will continue to force media to adopt state-sanctioned positions and terminology when reporting on the MB. The MB threat allows the authorities to repress public dissatisfaction with the economy or other state functions and responsibilities.

Myanmar will ignore West and push on towards new polls

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
Military Regime ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National League ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Military ◽  
Public Opposition

Significance The army detained Suu Kyi and other National League for Democracy (NLD) officials on February 1, claiming fraud in the November 8 general election in which the NLD increased its parliamentary majority. It has declared a one-year state of emergency and promises to hold fresh polls thereafter. Impacts The coup will slow the progress of the peace process designed to end conflicts between the military and ethnically based armed groups. Naypyidaw is even less likely than before to cooperate with Dhaka over repatriating Rohingya refugees residing in Bangladeshi camps. Public opposition to the military regime will spike if the authorities fail to maintain a downward trend in COVID-19 infections.

Cienfuegos affair threatens Mexico-US security ties

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
Political Influence ◽  
The Political ◽  
Security Cooperation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Military ◽  
Trump Administration

Significance The situation has highlighted several issues of concern around the influence of the Mexican military, the government’s reliance on it and the challenges Mexico and its security agencies face in trying to meet US demands while addressing domestic threats. Impacts Mexican militarisation was facilitated by Trump administration apathy on human rights; this will change under President Joe Biden. Increased US-bound migration, encouraged by Biden’s more humane rhetoric, will heighten the need for bilateral security cooperation. Future Mexican administrations will struggle to reverse the political influence the military has obtained.

scholarly journals Red capital in Hong Kong

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 149-160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heidi Wang-Kaeding ◽  
Malte Philipp Kaeding
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Comparative Capitalism ◽  
Liberal Societies ◽  
One Country Two Systems ◽  
The One ◽  
Systems Framework ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is threefold: first, to recount the scale, composition and agents of red capital in Hong Kong; second, to conceptualise the peculiarity of red capital; and third, to explore the impact of red capital on the political and economic institutional setup in Hong Kong. Design/methodology/approach The paper consults the comparative capitalism literature to conceptualise the phenomenon of red capital. The paper gathers data from Hong Kong Stock Exchange and indices to provide an overview of red capital. Furthermore, the case study of 2016 Legislative Election is deployed to investigate the mechanisms of red capital’s influence. The paper concludes with a summary of how red capital may challenge the validity of the “One Country, Two Systems” framework. Findings This paper argues that red capital replicates China’s state–capital nexus in Hong Kong and morphs the game of competition in favour of Chinese nationally controlled companies. In tandem with the emerging visibility of the party–state in Hong Kong’s economic sphere, the authors observe attempts of Chinese economic actors to compromise democratic institutions, deemed obstacles to state control. Originality/value This paper is the first attempt to systematically embed the discussion of red capital into comparative capitalism literature. This study provides conceptual tools to examine why red capital could pose a threat to liberal societies such as Hong Kong. Through this paper, we introduce a novel research agenda to scrutinise capital from authoritarian states and investigate how the capital is changing the political infrastructure shaped by liberal principles and values.

Election dispute belies Togo's deeper stability risks

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Child Mortality ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
West African ◽  
The Political ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Franc Zone ◽  
The Military ◽  
Democratic Norms

Subject The political outlook in Togo. Significance On April 28, the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) announced that President Faure Gnassingbe had won re-election in the presidential ballot held on April 25, with 58.75% of the vote. His controversial third term will extend his family's rule to nearly 50 years. Opposition candidate Jean-Pierre Fabre secured 34.95% of the vote. His Combat for Political Change (CAP) alliance rejects the result. Impacts Western donors' effectiveness at pushing for democratic norms will wane as Togo, like other African states, accesses new debt sources. Togo's membership of the West African CFA franc zone, which is backed by the French treasury, will ensure currency stability. A Burkina Faso-style ouster of Gnassingbe is unlikely, for now -- he enjoys the support of the military who first installed him. Despite being spared the Ebola crisis, standards of public health will remain poor, with child mortality rates far above global averages.

Thai charter vote foreshadows post-transition politics

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Political System ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Authoritarian State ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Military

Subject Outlook for the post-transition political system. Significance The August 7 constitutional referendum will be conducted under tightened controls on political organisation, making a 'yes' vote more likely. Although the Democratic Party criticises the draft for its attempt to return Thailand to a semi-authoritarian state, efforts by deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 'red-shirt' supporters to organise protests offer the only real opposition to the junta's plan. This struggle foreshadows the political system that is likely to emerge after the next parliamentary elections. Impacts Regulatory risk to investors post-transition would be limited: the military, the Democrats and the PTP are pro-business. China will not alter the status quo in its Thai relations, but will need to invest in building ties with the next monarch. Washington will tolerate most eventualities, except a violent crackdown against the military's opponents.

Turkey's army reform could turn into power grab

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Forces ◽  
The State ◽  
Political Life ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Constitutional Reforms ◽  
Military Relations ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Turkish Society

Subject The impact of the failed July coup on civilian-military relations. Significance The psychological impacts of the attempted coup across political life cannot be understated; it has far-reaching implications for the political, bureaucratic and even ideological structures of the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK). In the aftermath of the attempted putsch, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is more determined than ever to alter the civilian-military machinery of government in Turkey radically. Impacts The purge and radical reforms will bring into question the TSK's operational and strategic reliability for Western partners. A permanently weakened TSK would ease the way for constitutional reforms strengthening Erdogan's grip on the state. It will take years to rebuild the confidence and prestige the military has lost among broad swathes of Turkish society. Any criticism of the TSK reforms, domestically or from abroad, will meet the authorities' fierce condemnation.

IMF lending will prod Ukraine to sustain reforms

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Capital Markets ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
International Capital ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Capital Markets ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Government

Significance After releasing 1 billion dollars in April, the IMF is urging Ukraine to implement land and pension reforms to make it eligible for further lending tranches. The government is finding it hard to pursue controversial changes opposed by many voters and taken up as causes by the political opposition. Gontareva's resignation reflects a lack of government support and is a setback for the reformist camp. Impacts The 'economic war' emerging alongside armed conflict in the east will dent prospects for growth and reform. Failure to secure further IMF financing could accelerate the planned return to international capital markets, perhaps in the third quarter. Attempts to push through reforms such as land sales may lead to increased political strife but not a full-blown political crisis.

Algerian army will try to guard fiefdom in transition

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Military Leadership ◽  
The Political ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Constitutional Order ◽  
Formal Power ◽  
The Military

Significance The military leadership has seized control of the political process, but has shown little interest in assuming formal power, often demonstrating sympathies with protesters while preserving the constitutional order. Impacts The prime minister and interim president may be pushed to quit as a concession. Elections planned for July 4 may be postponed if unrest grows. The economy may suffer as tourism will decline and foreign investors will hesitate to become involved in an uncertain energy sector.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document