Somali regional election portends unstable status quo

Subject Impact of the recent Jubaland regional election. Significance Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe on August 22 won a third term in office after receiving 56 of 74 votes from regional parliamentarians. However, the election was marred by allegations that Madobe manipulated the process, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has refused to recognise the result and two separate opposition camps -- backing Abdirashid Mohamed Hiddig and Abdinasir Seerar respectively -- have elected their own regional parliaments and presidents. Impacts Madobe’s re-election will deal a major blow to the FGS’s efforts to install allies in regional states. The recent arrest of Madobe’s security minister in Mogadishu will sour the political climate further. Al-Shabaab will use the episode to paint regional and national leaders as powerless and beholden to foreign interests.

2019 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 129-142
Author(s):  
Alicia Kubas

Purpose Since the 2016 presidential election, hyper-partisanship has become a regular facet of the political landscape with Democrats and Republicans in increasing conflict. The purpose of this paper is to determine if perception of government sources related to trust and credibility has changed since the 2016 election and if the experiences and strategies of librarians who teach or consult about government information has changed in response to this environment. Design/methodology/approach A 24-question survey was distributed to garner qualitative and quantitative responses from librarians who teach or consult about government information in an academic environment. A total of 122 responses were used for analysis. Findings Academic librarians are seeing more concern from patrons about disappearing online government information and wider distrust of government information. Librarians also noticed that the political leanings of students color their perspective around government sources and that librarians also need to keep their political beliefs in check. Respondents emphasized a need for more government literacy and information literacy topics when discussing evaluation of government sources. Research limitations/implications The data collection only included responses from academic librarians. Further research could include in-depth interviews and look at experiences in various library types. Originality/value With the timeliness of this topic, there has not been an in-depth investigation into how the Trump administration has changed user trust and perception of government sources from the librarian’s point of view. This paper continues the conversation about how librarians can address the growing distrust of government information and give us insight into the effects of a turbulent political climate on government sources.


Subject Outlook for the post-transition political system. Significance The August 7 constitutional referendum will be conducted under tightened controls on political organisation, making a 'yes' vote more likely. Although the Democratic Party criticises the draft for its attempt to return Thailand to a semi-authoritarian state, efforts by deposed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's 'red-shirt' supporters to organise protests offer the only real opposition to the junta's plan. This struggle foreshadows the political system that is likely to emerge after the next parliamentary elections. Impacts Regulatory risk to investors post-transition would be limited: the military, the Democrats and the PTP are pro-business. China will not alter the status quo in its Thai relations, but will need to invest in building ties with the next monarch. Washington will tolerate most eventualities, except a violent crackdown against the military's opponents.


Subject The impact of last month's coup attempt on economic activity. Significance The business community is nervous post-coup. A state of emergency is in force and enterprises and business organisations that have had relations with the Fethullah Gulen movement face investigation. Impacts Companies working in and with Turkey need extra care about business partners, their public profiles and developments in politics and policy. Stock exchange investors and funds must pay more heed to the risks and opportunities the political climate creates for individual firms. Foreign direct investment may fall owing to additional uncertainty due to the political situation; some firms may divert investment abroad. Media independence and pluralism will be weakened further, with private investors reluctant to own, or advertise in, opposition outlets.


Significance The change of president and government in late January has shifted the power balance in favour of the Socialist Party (BSP), but the centre-right Citizens for Bulgaria’s European Development (GERB) is still the stronger political force. The three most influential parties -- GERB, BSP and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) -- are all focused on preserving the political and economic status quo, and on opposing radical judicial reform as demanded by the EU. Pro-reform forces to the right of GERB are in disarray, while the nationalist parties are united and on the rise. Impacts GERB has yet to find itself a role that could win it another victory over the BSP, as in 2014. As the weaker party, the BSP will be more aggressive in exploiting anti EU sentiment. Long-anticipated judicial reform will remain elusive. The degree of Bulgaria's distance from Brussels will be influenced primarily by events and elections in Western Europe.


Subject Tax tensions. Significance The governors of four states joined forces on April 17 to seek a new fiscal agreement with the federal government. They argue that the 1978 Fiscal Coordination Law (also known as the Fiscal Pact), which establishes a formula by which taxes are transferred to the federal government and redistributed among Mexico’s 32 states, is unfair and that they receive only a small proportion of the resources they contribute. They intend to produce proposals to amend the law this month. Impacts The complaining governors could become leading opposition figures against AMLO and his government. AMLO’s perceived COVID-19 failings will harm his popularity, potentially benefiting governors with presidential ambitions. All states need to increase taxes to curb regional inequality, but this will be resisted by many owing to the political costs of taxation. As long as the current Fiscal Pact remains unchanged, opacity and dependency will define dealings between federal and state governments.


Subject A profile of Pedro Castillo. Significance Pedro Castillo has emerged as the unexpected winner of Peru’s 2021 presidential election. A schoolteacher far removed from the political establishment, his victory had led to concerns about what his presidency would look like and, indeed, whether it would last a full term. His challenge to the status quo has the political class deeply rattled. Impacts A Castillo government can be expected to increase company taxation, especially in the all-important mining sector. Most businessmen will prefer to wait and see what his government will bring before seeking to subvert it. If he moves far to the centre, Castillo will open up space for criticism on the left, not least from his own party.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey Muldoon ◽  
Eric W. Liguori ◽  
Steve Lovett ◽  
Christopher Stone

Purpose This paper aims to analyze the political background of the Hawthorne criticisms, positing that the political atmosphere of the 1940s, influenced by the decline of the new deal liberalism and the rise of the conservative coalition, stimulated scholars to challenge the Hawthorne studies. Design/methodology/approach Primary sources used in the guise of archival commentaries, journal articles and other published works (books and book chapters). Secondary sources are offered to provide additional insight and context. Findings The findings show that politics unnecessarily discredited Mayo. As a result, contemporary scholars failed to recognize Mayo’s work as an important part of the basis for modern management theory. Research limitations/implications The purpose of the research is to look into the political context of the Hawthorne studies to understand how management practice and research is impacted by ongoing political issues. Originality/value To date, no work has fully accounted for or understood the political climate of the time in considering the criticisms of the Hawthorne studies. By more fully understanding the political context, scholars can reevaluate the weight they place on the then criticisms of the Hawthorne studies.


Subject Political outlook for Thailand. Significance King Maha Vajiralongkorn’s response to a draft constitution presented to him in December sparked multiple changes in the shape of Thailand’s constitutional monarchy that were quickly ushered through the military-appointed National Legislative Assembly (NLA). The king’s move raises doubts about his commitment to the political status quo. Impacts Changes in the civilian-military power balance could affect businesses attached to partisan interests. Media restrictions will tighten yet further. That the new US administration is occupied elsewhere allows Thailand more diplomatic room.


Subject Outlook for Somalia's political transition. Significance Leaders of the federal government and member states will meet on January 10 in Kismayo to finalise the framework for the August-September 2016 political transition. This will involve state-level electoral colleges selecting parliamentarians based on clan and constituency-based representation, rather than direct elections. Impacts Any transition in 2016 would fulfil a key donor requirement and mark a break with the politics of the 2004-12 period. Insecurity will challenge the transition, as the political turmoil in Burundi threatens further strain on AMISOM coherence and troop levels. Donor backing for AMISOM is set to shift, with the EU reducing its support by 20% from January.


Subject Rise of left-wing populists in East and Southern Africa. Significance The failure of the political mainstream to address the needs of the poor has created space for the emergence of a new generation of populist movements and leaders. In Tanzania and Zambia, this has led to the election of populist presidents. In South Africa, it has resulted in the emergence of a populist opposition party and the rise of a series of interconnected social movements animated by anti-elitist sentiment. What distinguishes the new populist wave is that it seeks to overthrow existing inequalities, consciously targeting established 'nationalist' or 'liberation' forces that are seen to have grown complacent and corrupt. Impacts The rise of populist opposition parties will encourage governments to adopt more populist economic policies. Higher government spending and lower regard for orthodox economic advice could increase budget deficits and lead to rising national debt. Several states will become more vocal criticisms of global inequalities, and perceived Western hypocrisy, in forums such as the WTO and UN.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document