Uganda’s oil ambitions slip further out of reach

Subject Outlook for Uganda's oil sector. Significance Uganda’s dreams of becoming an oil producer have hit another delay with the expiry of an agreement for Tullow to farm down part of its stake in the Lake Albert oilfields to Total and the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC). Tullow will now seek a new buyer, but in the meantime Total, the project lead, has suspended work on the export pipeline element of the project. Impacts Tullow has said it will relaunch the sales process to reduce its stake and is confident of finding a buyer. Recent exploration success in Guyana will help fill the gap in Tullow’s project pipeline created by delay in Uganda. If Kenya’s planned oil export pipeline goes ahead, Uganda’s oil could yet be exported via Kenya, a route Uganda and Total rejected in 2016. The recurrent setbacks could also affect wider perceptions in the investment community as the government touts plans for industrial parks.

Significance In January, eastern-based military leader Khalifa Haftar forced the closure of oil export terminals in the Gulf of Sirte, causing oil production and exports to plummet by 80-90%. The retreat of Haftar’s forces from western Libya as units supporting the Government of National Accord (GNA) advance towards Sirte raises questions about how control of the hydrocarbons sector will evolve. Impacts Some increases in oil exports are likely, but they may be short-lived. If oil exports do not rise this year, fears of a budget crisis will grow. The NOC is unlikely to support the GNA trying to use more oil sector promises to mobilise international support, for example from Turkey.


Significance Kampala's oscillation over its preferred route is adding to setbacks affecting its oil export plans, delaying anticipated revenues. The resulting fiscal squeeze is one of the several challenges facing Museveni following his return for a fifth term in office. Impacts The government will emphasise Chinese interest in the oil sector in a bid to project Museveni's economic plans as a success to voters. The falling ratio of donor aid to GNI (16% in 2004 to 8% in 2016) will reduce Western states' leverage to demand governance reforms. Uganda's importance as a security bulwark in East Africa will reduce Western states' appetite to criticise Museveni.


2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 474-483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Innocent Otache

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore agripreneurship development as a strategy for economic growth and development. Design/methodology/approach Though a few related literature were reviewed, this paper relies heavily on the author’s viewpoint regarding how Nigeria can grow and develop its economy through agripreneurship development. Findings The present economic challenges that Nigeria is facing are blamed on overdependence on the oil sector, bad governance, corruption, leadership failure, policy inconsistency, overdependence on imported goods and ostensible neglect of the agricultural sector. Also, policymakers, economic analysts and the government have advocated strongly for diversification of the economy. Besides, there is a consensus among scholars, economic analysts and policymakers that “agriculture is the answer.” Research limitations/implications This paper addresses specifically one sector of the economy – the agricultural sector. On the other hand, economic crisis needs to be addressed holistically by resolving specific issues that confront different sectors of the economy. Practical implications This paper has some insightful policy and practical implications for the Nigerian Government and Nigerians. The government and Nigerians need to take practical steps to grow and develop the economy. On the part of the government, apart from the need to transform the agricultural sector by allocating enough funds to it, the government should establish well-equipped agripreneurship development centers and organize periodically agripreneurship development programmes for the main purpose of training and developing both current and potential agripreneurs who will be able to apply today’s agricultural techniques and practices which involve a great deal of creativity and innovation for a successful agribusiness. The federal government should integrate agripreneurship education into Nigeria’s education system. Similarly, the Nigerian people, particularly the youths or graduates should be encouraged to choose agribusiness as a career. Originality/value While previous papers have offered different solutions to the current economic crisis that Nigeria is experiencing, ranging from economic to structural reforms, this paper differs significantly from others by recommending specifically agripreneurship development as a strategy for revamping Nigeria’s economy from its current recession. Moreover, there is a dearth of literature on agripreneurship and agripreneurship development. This paper therefore fills the literature gap.


Author(s):  
Edeh, Chukwudi Emmanuel ◽  
Obi, Cyril Ogugua ◽  
Mbaeri, Clara Ndidiamaka ◽  
Ebite Ogochukwu Njideka

The objective of the study is to examine the impact of FDI on exports in Nigeria for the period 1981-2018. Specifically, two linear equations were formulated to trace the impact of FDI on oil sector and non-oil sector. The explanatory variables in the study were exchange rate, GDP, degree of openness, FDI, and inflation. The ADF technique was used to test for the stationarity of the time series data. The results of the Error Correction models reveal that there is a positive and significant (P(FDI) = 0.000) relationship between FDI and oil export in Nigeria. One per cent increase in FDI leads to 0.47 per cent increase in oil export over the period under study. There is a positive and significant (P(FDI) = 0.005) relationship between FDI and non-oil export in Nigeria. One per cent increase in FDI leads to 0.31 per cent increase in non-oil export over the period under study. The impact of FDI on the oil export is higher than the non-oil sector by 0.16 per cent. The study recommends for more aggressive policies to attract FDI in the oil sector to be pursued by the government. Obstacles to doing business in Nigeria should be removed. KEYWORDS: Foreign direct investment, oil export, non-oil export


Significance Despite such controversies, the government is pinning hopes for economic recovery on restoring hydrocarbons production alongside longstanding plans to reduce the country’s dependence on oil. While large international oil companies are retreating to the relative safety of the deep offshore, the government will look to new partnerships with China and India for large infrastructure projects. Impacts Employment gains in the oil sector will be marginal compared to increases in the agricultural sector. Recent state interventions against oil majors are unlikely to deter future investment. Counter-insurgency operations against Boko Haram could distract from government peace efforts in the Niger Delta.


Significance Fund officials praised the government's efforts to rein in spending in response to low oil prices but said further steps were needed to ensure economic stability and improve transparency in public finances. The restructuring of state oil firm Sonangol, announced in April, will be critical for this process. Impacts Sonangol's reforms will shape business cross-regionally, given its multi-sector interests and status as one of Africa's largest companies. If certain of the firm's operations are streamlined, it could affect the livelihoods of some of its approximately 10,000 employees. The 16-billion-dollar Kaombo offshore oil project, led by Total, will prove fundamental for sustaining Angola's future oil output. Angola's status as the region's largest oil producer will persist as long as Nigerian output is reduced by Niger delta militant attacks. Isabel dos Santos's extensive business experience will bolster the investor credibility of the oil sector reforms.


Significance It has proven a disappointment, failing to explain how ambitious targets will be met, while confirming the reversal of the oil sector liberalisation enacted by the Pena Nieto administration, which had been showing some promising results. Impacts The government cannot mount a massive rescue of Pemex without endangering its own finances. Any substantial drop in global oil prices could present an insurmountable obstacle for Pemex, and a significant blow to public finances. A downgrade of Pemex’s debt could push rating agencies to do the same with the bonds of the federal government.


Significance The collapse of world oil prices has brought fiscal policy sharply into focus in Ecuador. At a time when the budget deficit is widening and the opposition is strengthening, the government faces the prospect of receiving significantly less income from the oil sector than anticipated. The fallout from the plunge of oil prices coincides with the beginning of the constitutional debate that could allow the re-election of President Rafael Correa in 2017. Impacts The government will intensify efforts to raise oil output in a bid to ease the impact of falling oil prices. Conflicts between central and local government will probably increase as public resources become scarcer. If oil prices remain low, the appeal of exiting dollarisation and establishing full control over monetary policy will rise.


Subject The outlook for the oil sector. Significance While Ecuador is the smallest member of OPEC, oil is its largest export and the government's primary source of revenue. The collapse of world oil prices has forced the government to introduce import controls to support the balance of payments and cut public spending to reduce the budget deficit. However, rising levels of oil production have softened the blow of falling oil prices. The government hopes to continue this trend by attracting new investment into the oil sector, despite the downturn in the world market. Impacts The perilous state of the balance of payments and public finances will increase the need to attract new foreign investment into oil. Chinese oil companies are likely to increase their presence in Ecuador, reflecting trends elsewhere in Latin America. Development of the oil fields previously integrated into Yasuni/ITT should increase total oil output significantly from 2018-19.


Subject Venezuela's beleaguered oil sector. Significance With an economy dominated by oil, the collapse in oil prices during 2016 hurt Venezuela severely, already struggling with output and investment. This year brings a range of oil-related challenges, starting with the uncertain prospects for crude prices, balanced between the fragile OPEC-led production cuts and a hoped-for increase in global oil demand during the year. Impacts Low prices and production could raise the default risk for both PDVSA and the government. Despite huge reserves, higher-cost extra-heavy crude is not an attractive investment if low prices persist. Debts to China will further reduce the volume of oil available for sale, limiting revenue and prospects for boosting output.


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