Lithuanian conservative parties will win October vote

Significance Gitanas Nauseda won the second-round presidential election on May 26, 2019, by 67% to Ingrida Simonyte’s 33%. Both ran as independents; the opposition conservative Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD) backed Simonyte. Nauseda’s victory seems due to being a married practising Catholic in a conservative country, his greater distance from the political establishment and his opponent’s image as an unmarried and culturally liberal woman. Impacts Relations with Poland will improve further despite unresolved issues, as Lithuania needs a stronger security and economic partner. Relations with China will be based on economic pragmatism. Lithuania will be more committed to promote EU climate policy, now that Virginijus Sinkevicius is the environment commissioner.

2019 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 129-142
Author(s):  
Alicia Kubas

Purpose Since the 2016 presidential election, hyper-partisanship has become a regular facet of the political landscape with Democrats and Republicans in increasing conflict. The purpose of this paper is to determine if perception of government sources related to trust and credibility has changed since the 2016 election and if the experiences and strategies of librarians who teach or consult about government information has changed in response to this environment. Design/methodology/approach A 24-question survey was distributed to garner qualitative and quantitative responses from librarians who teach or consult about government information in an academic environment. A total of 122 responses were used for analysis. Findings Academic librarians are seeing more concern from patrons about disappearing online government information and wider distrust of government information. Librarians also noticed that the political leanings of students color their perspective around government sources and that librarians also need to keep their political beliefs in check. Respondents emphasized a need for more government literacy and information literacy topics when discussing evaluation of government sources. Research limitations/implications The data collection only included responses from academic librarians. Further research could include in-depth interviews and look at experiences in various library types. Originality/value With the timeliness of this topic, there has not been an in-depth investigation into how the Trump administration has changed user trust and perception of government sources from the librarian’s point of view. This paper continues the conversation about how librarians can address the growing distrust of government information and give us insight into the effects of a turbulent political climate on government sources.


Subject Four European disintegration risks. Significance After the French presidential election, which saw the decisive victory of Emmanuel Macron over National Front leader Marine Le Pen, a sigh of relief could be heard in European capitals: the worse had been avoided; the EU would thrive again. This relief could be premature. At least four disintegration risks are still threatening the EU. Impacts Even though its economic prospects are positive, the euro-area remains fragile and could plunge back into chaos if left unreformed. An economic downturn would benefit Eurosceptic populist parties. The political uncertainty of a caretaker government in Germany will increase its officials' reluctance to agree to any euro-area reforms.


Significance The requests are based on plea bargains from former executives of construction company Odebrecht. While the names in ‘Janot’s list’ have not been disclosed, several of them have leaked to the media. They include six ministers in the government of President Michel Temer, two former presidents, ten state governors, and the heads of both houses of Congress. If confirmed, this would make the list a potent bombshell for the Brazilian political class. Impacts The corruption scandal looks set to disrupt next year’s presidential election. Politicians’ disdain for accountability will fuel outrage with the political class. The ground could be fertile for a candidate claiming to be an ‘outsider’.


Significance Economic weakness plus popular resentment of an elite seen as corrupt creates potential for mass demonstrations by pro- and anti-EU factions. Russia's importance as an economic partner is waning but it retains substantial influence through sympathetic political parties. A presidential election this October will be coloured by the unresolved bank fraud scandal, which has created a gulf between the political establishment and the electorate. Impacts Mainstream politicians will be find it hard to shake off perceived links to corruption. Prominent figures, whether oligarchs or pro-Russian politicians, may therefore avoid standing as presidential candidates. Lack of systemic reforms is a constraint on Moldova's ability to engage with EU economies. Domestic turmoil makes the government less likely to challenge Transnistria, which will remain a conduit for Russian pressure.


Subject A profile of Pedro Castillo. Significance Pedro Castillo has emerged as the unexpected winner of Peru’s 2021 presidential election. A schoolteacher far removed from the political establishment, his victory had led to concerns about what his presidency would look like and, indeed, whether it would last a full term. His challenge to the status quo has the political class deeply rattled. Impacts A Castillo government can be expected to increase company taxation, especially in the all-important mining sector. Most businessmen will prefer to wait and see what his government will bring before seeking to subvert it. If he moves far to the centre, Castillo will open up space for criticism on the left, not least from his own party.


2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 298-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noel Campbell ◽  
Marcus Witcher

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that an implication of Holcombe’s (2002) model is a “revolution trap.” This paper extends Holcombe’s model adding Klein’s concept of entrepreneurship as judgment concerning the use of heterogeneous political capital. The authors use the case of the USA presidential election of 1800 to demonstrate the utility of the extension, and to discuss how political entrepreneurship served to prevent a revolution trap. The political entrepreneurship of 1800 established the precedent of peaceful transition of power in the USA, which opened the door to the rapid economic development of the early nineteenth century. Design/methodology/approach – This is a historical case study using letters, newspapers, pamphlets, and other pieces of empirical evidence to highlight an important moment of political entrepreneurship. Findings – Many contemporary observers predicted that the USA would devolve into continuous revolution, which the authors argue Holcombe’s (2002) model predicts. However, political entrepreneurship ended the revolutionary period in the former British North America. Moreover, the political entrepreneurship ending the election crisis established the precedent of peaceful political succession. This precedent comparatively elevated the returns of productive, market entrepreneurship (Baumol, 1990). As a result, the USA experiences a prolonged period of entrepreneurially driven economic growth. Originality/value – To the authors knowledge, no one has developed the implication of a “revolution trap” from Holcombe’s (2002) model, nor has anyone applied Klein’s (2008) model to extend Holcombe’s model of political entrepreneurship. Although the disputed presidential election of 1800 has been extensively researched, no one has analyzed the election and its resolution from the perspective of political entrepreneurship.


Significance The main opposition leader has refused to accept President Uhuru Kenyatta’s victory in the repeat presidential election on October 26. Odinga's withdrawal from the race guaranteed that Kenyatta would win a landslide victory, but also that it would be tarnished by questions of legitimacy. Meanwhile, Odinga’s vow to launch a national resistance movement has considerably raised the political stakes. Impacts An opposition boycott of companies involved in the election may deter foreign direct investment. The electoral commission has lost most Kenyans' confidence and major reform will be required before another election can credibly be held. Other African leaders may become increasingly wary of judicial independence, and look to establish greater political control of the courts.


Significance He has said that he will announce next month whether he will contest the April 2021 presidential election. On the economic front, Talon’s first term has been very successful, but on the political front he has weakened democratic institutions, with virtually no parliamentary opposition for the first time since multiparty democracy was introduced in 1990. Impacts Talon will likely intensify diplomatic efforts to repair relations with Nigeria following the latter's ongoing border closures. Talon will look to increase Benin’s external financing, principally through debt issuance, to fund his development agenda. Benin's recent decision to withdraw from the African Court of Human and Peoples' Rights further highlights Talon's authoritarian tendencies.


Subject Senate Democrats and the post-election party. Significance The 115th Congress will be sworn in on January 3 and President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration will occur on January 20. After bitter internal disputes over the ideological direction of the party and the reasons for Hillary Clinton's shock election loss, the Democratic Party will have to reformulate itself in opposition to the political programme of Trump and a Republican-controlled Congress. The party also will need to resolve questions of leadership, electoral strategy and policy priorities ahead of the 2018 midterm elections and 2020 presidential election. Impacts The record-low number of state-level seats held by Democrats will hinder recruitment of federal candidates with strong local credentials. Senate Democrats are likely to let most Trump appointees through confirmation and attack them once in office. Advocates of environmental and financial regulation from the party's left wing will pressure their centrist leaders.


Subject A profile of Luciano Huck. Significance Increasingly involved in politics in recent years, but without having joined a political party yet, TV host Luciano Huck has in recent months stepped up his efforts to launch a competitive presidential bid in 2022. Huck, who moves comfortably among a range of parties and leaders that orbit the political centre, is popular across various sectors of society thanks to a TV programme he has hosted since 2000 and has several million followers across different social networks. Impacts Sensing a chance to win the presidency, several different parties will seek to attract Huck. A Huck government would blend orthodox economics with more ambitious social policies. Brazil’s current political scenario is favourable to Huck, but the next presidential election is not due until October 2022.


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