EU-China economic ties will become more distant

Significance The pandemic has exposed Europe’s dependence on China for medical equipment, the vulnerability of European firms to Chinese takeovers and China’s lack of transparency in general. The resulting deterioration of European governments’ views of China increases the likelihood that EU-China economic relations will become somewhat more distant over time. Impacts The EU’s view of China is aligning more with that of the United States, but differences in aims and tactics impede cooperation. The election of Joe Biden as US president in November would strengthen Western cohesion and cooperation over China. European public opinion on China is likely to become more negative over time.

Significance The deal was one of a number of key agreements that Prime Minister Narendra Modi signed during his visit to Tehran on May 23. The visit aimed to advance relations following the lifting of sanctions on Iran in January, and a decade of missed opportunities and rising suspicion in relations between Tehran and Delhi. Impacts Expanding energy and trade ties will support Iran's efforts to diversify its economy and trade relationships. Building economic ties with India will help the normalisation of Tehran's international relations. India will limit security and defence cooperation with Iran in order to avoid alienating Israel, Gulf states and the United States.


Subject Erdogan’s visit to Serbia. Significance The Turkish president’s visit to Serbia on October 9-11 was much publicised. Recep Tayyip Erdogan received a hero’s welcome at a rally in Novi Pazar, where he appeared alongside Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. Both governments are keen to boost economic ties. Impacts Size and location make Serbia a key economic and diplomatic partner for Turkey in former Yugoslavia. The Turkish state will continue to claim leadership over Balkan Muslims and seek to contain the influence of radical Islam. All Balkan governments will seek good ties with Turkey and to minimise any fallout from Erdogan’s spat with the EU and the United States.


Subject Russian influence in Bosnia. Significance Russia seems much more adept at playing the Balkan political game than the EU or the United States. Thanks to that and the gradual weakening of Bosnia’s EU perspective, Russia has managed to fill the EU vacuum and establish influence over Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH) with a minimum of investment. Impacts BiH could achieve EU candidate status in 2019 if it can satisfy the European Commission that it is meeting required conditions. The EU’s much stronger economic relations with Balkan states will limit Russian influence. Russia’s presence in both Bosnia and Serbia will continue to take the form solely of being able to influence Serbs.


Significance Pragmatism will be to the forefront in the early implementation of the Phase One trade agreement between the two countries that came into effect in mid-February. At the same time, the hard line is more prominent in the Trump administration’s efforts to curtail China’s telecoms giants, Huawei Technologies and ZTE Corporation. Impacts The mistrust between the United States and China during the pandemic will discourage cooperation in other spheres. China’s drive to reshape the institutional architecture of global governance and to be self-sufficient in technology will continue. Despite disliking multilateralism, Trump will engage with multilateral bodies to curb China’s efforts to reshape global governance. Any US-EU trade agreement could seek to limit China exploiting additional fraying of US-EU relations caused by the pandemic.


2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 227-243
Author(s):  
Patrick Carter ◽  
Jeffrie Wang ◽  
Davis Chau

PurposeThe similarities between the developments of the United States (U.S.) and China into global powers (countries with global economic, military, and political influence) can be analyzed through big data analysis from both countries. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether or not China is on the same path to becoming a world power like what the U.S. did one hundred years ago.Design/methodology/approachThe data of this study is drawn from political rhetoric and linguistic analysis by using “big data” technology to identify the most common words and political trends over time from speeches made by the U.S. and Chinese leaders from three periods, including 1905-1945 in U.S., 1977-2017 in U.S. and 1977-2017 in China.FindingsRhetoric relating to national identity was most common amongst Chinese and the U.S. leaders over time. The differences between the early-modern U.S. and the current U.S. showed the behavioral changes of countries as they become powerful. It is concluded that China is not a world power at this stage. Yet, it is currently on the path towards becoming one, and is already reflecting characteristics of present-day U.S., a current world power.Originality/valueThis paper presents a novel approach to analyze historical documents through big data text mining, a methodology scarcely used in historical studies. It highlights how China as of now is most likely in a transitionary stage of becoming a world power.


Significance Trump entered office deeply sceptical of the importance of wars in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, but his critics say his troop-withdrawal announcements are timed to distract US public opinion from the Mueller probe into his administration and 2016 election campaign. Other critics -- some of them otherwise Trump’s allies, including Republican senators -- fear the troop withdrawals will raise the terrorism threat facing the United States. Impacts A government shutdown tonight would see a further push for continuing resolutions to fund the government, pending further talks. Mattis had been a quasi-envoy to US defence partners in Asia; they will be concerned by his departure. Resurgence of terrorism in Syria or Afghanistan could undermine Trump politically, if the threat facing the United States rises. Republican Senate control should help Mattis’s replacement get confirmed more easily.


Subject EU-US ties. Significance Attracting the ire of US President Donald Trump, the US goods trade deficit with the EU has widened since 2009. While Trump blames the imbalance on the EU charging higher tariffs on its US imports than the United States charges on its EU imports, the deficit is instead driven by US demand. Most US-EU trade is between foreign affiliates and the declaration between Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in late July reaffirmed the close economic ties between the two blocs. Impacts The prospects for US exports of LNG to the EU will be higher if Chinese retaliatory restrictions remain in place. The US farm lobby will push for agriculture to be covered in the trade negotiations. The negotiations are unlikely to lead to a return to a comprehensive Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership-type deal. Renegotiating US-EU goods trade tariffs will necessarily involve other chapters including services or foreign investment. Escalating trade tariffs would damage the EU but would damage the United States more owing to the size of US-EU cross-border investments.


Subject Headwinds for US-ASEAN trade. Significance The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) last month withdrew ‘developing country’ status from several countries, including half the ASEAN states. This 'developing' status to a large extent protects countries that have it from US investigations into their trade practices. Impacts US companies will file more trade complaints against their South-east Asian rivals because the threshold for such complaints will be lower. More US tariffs on goods from ASEAN countries would increase the cost of doing business for South-east Asia. South-east Asian public opinion towards the United States will deteriorate.


Subject Political and economic relations between Delhi and Washington. Significance Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar last week said Delhi and Washington faced a challenge to “refresh” bilateral ties, despite “dramatic changes” over the last 20 years. India and the United States are strategic partners, but relations have come under strain over Kashmir, defence and trade. Impacts The recent halting of US-Taliban talks, which had worried Delhi because they excluded Kabul, will remove a minor source of India-US tension. India-US commercial spats will hurt Delhi’s ‘Make in India’ scheme, designed to persuade international manufactures to seek local partners. Enduring India-US strains would undermine Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy, as Delhi is a key partner within it.


2002 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergio Fabbrini

The Terrorist Attacks In New York And Washington Dc On 11 September 2001, and the killing of thousands of people were not sufficient to dispel a mood of suspicion in European public opinion towards America. Of course, during the very first days after the attack, there was widespread grief and sorrow about the event among Europeans. But, as soon as discussion on the right strategy to pursu to combat terrorism began, the initial mood of identification with America started to change. And when America, although backed by a large international coalition and legitimated by two UN resolutions, moved towards an armed intervention in Afghanistan, European anti-Americanism emerged again. Thus, during the armed intervention in Afghanistan, especially when the bombing led to the death of innocent victims, a social mobilization against the American war grew day after day, with its critics apparently losing sight of the fact that a dramatic terrorist attack on America had recently taken place.The interesting question is why does anti-Americanism re-emerge regularly in large sections of European public opinion? This intermittent Anti-Americanism appears more in southern and continental Europe, than in the northern British Isles and Scandinavia, where it is outdone by a more vociferous anti-Europeanism. In the latter countries, anti-Americanism takes the form of uneasiness with the United States. In fact, in spite of Britain's traditional special relationship with the United States, the fact cannot be denied that post-war British elites grudgingly accept their inferior status in that special relationship. But, of course, frustration with America is not the same as anger towards America. In any case, in (continental) Europe, anti- Americanism seems to be one of the few public philosophies that can unite large sections of the left, the right and the Catholic Church. It is a public philosophy which emerges especially in periods of war (and of international crisis in general).


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document