Moldovan president faces anti-reform parliament

Significance She added more than 450,000 votes to her first-round score. Incumbent President Igor Dodon grudgingly conceded defeat, and Russia as well as the EU offered congratulations. Impacts Sandu's presidency will have the loudest pro-reform voice of any state institution. A political stand-off is possible if the presidency and parliament are unwilling to seek a consensus. Early elections will be more a preoccupation for the political class than for the average voter.

Significance The change of president and government in late January has shifted the power balance in favour of the Socialist Party (BSP), but the centre-right Citizens for Bulgaria’s European Development (GERB) is still the stronger political force. The three most influential parties -- GERB, BSP and the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) -- are all focused on preserving the political and economic status quo, and on opposing radical judicial reform as demanded by the EU. Pro-reform forces to the right of GERB are in disarray, while the nationalist parties are united and on the rise. Impacts GERB has yet to find itself a role that could win it another victory over the BSP, as in 2014. As the weaker party, the BSP will be more aggressive in exploiting anti EU sentiment. Long-anticipated judicial reform will remain elusive. The degree of Bulgaria's distance from Brussels will be influenced primarily by events and elections in Western Europe.


Subject The non-appearance of an expected EU anti-corruption report. Significance The European Commission’s cancellation of its second report on anti-corruption efforts across member-states and EU institutions removes a key benchmark against which to hold European governments to account at a time when several are attempting to roll back anti-corruption reforms and disable checks and balances. Given the political sensitivity of the first report, the move also feeds populist criticisms that the EU itself is prone to corruption and unwilling to expose itself to scrutiny. Impacts Populist governments appear to be learning from one another that they can remove limits on their power. This will allow interest groups to entrench their political and economic dominance, hindering economic growth in the long run. The US president’s attacks on parts of the media for ‘fake news’ may encourage use of anti-establishment rhetoric to discredit critics.


Significance Portugal is set for the best five-year period of growth since the turn of the millennium, unemployment is falling and public finances are showing positive signs. The upswing is reflected in the remarkable stability of the political system. Impacts The economic recovery is likely to drive down yields on government bonds. Centeno’s appointment as Eurogroup president will raise Portugal’s standing in the EU. Security concerns in many Mediterranean countries are likely to boost Portugal’s tourism industry.


Significance The EP vote could in theory lead to sanctions under Article 7 of the EU Treaty (TEU). An 'illiberal state' has emerged in Hungary since 2010, profoundly and durably modifying the functioning of the political system, entrenching the power of the ruling Fidesz party and weakening the opposition. Impacts Fidesz will renew its strong majority in the 2018 elections and further consolidate its power in years to come. Member states are unlikely to agree on the deep reform of EU rule of law procedures that would allow a systematic response. Neighbouring states and candidate countries are likely to drift increasingly away from the liberal model.


Subject Four European disintegration risks. Significance After the French presidential election, which saw the decisive victory of Emmanuel Macron over National Front leader Marine Le Pen, a sigh of relief could be heard in European capitals: the worse had been avoided; the EU would thrive again. This relief could be premature. At least four disintegration risks are still threatening the EU. Impacts Even though its economic prospects are positive, the euro-area remains fragile and could plunge back into chaos if left unreformed. An economic downturn would benefit Eurosceptic populist parties. The political uncertainty of a caretaker government in Germany will increase its officials' reluctance to agree to any euro-area reforms.


Significance With Moise becoming increasingly isolated from the political class, he is forging alliances with other sectors to maintain his support. This has led to allegations that he may be dealing with criminal gangs in an effort to cement his control. Impacts High levels of COVID-19 in the Dominican Republic mean transmission rates in Haiti are likely to continue rising. Concerns about Moise’s perceived authoritarian tendencies will further weigh on prospects for investment and international aid. More resignations from Moise’s cabinet would further reduce his political credibility.


Significance Centre-left candidate Zoran Milanovic won the second round with 53% of the vote. Grabar-Kitarovic’s embarrassing campaign performance only partly explains her humiliating second-round defeat; more significant is the growing split in the ruling conservative Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), which backed her. The political scene may see major changes, but not necessarily a move to the left. Impacts Political turmoil will hamper Croatia’s already limited capacity to handle its rotating presidency of the Council of the EU. A change of president may improve Croatia's poor relations with neighbours Bosnia and Serbia. Milanovic is a known quantity whose personal, political and diplomatic capacity will be an improvement on Grabar-Kitarovic’s. Milanovic has frosty relations with Serbia’s Aleksandar Vucic, and Bosniaks remember him saying privately that Bosnia was not a country. Plenkovic’s weakened position will affect the Bosnian HDZ's leader, Dragan Covic, seen as neglecting Bosnian Croat interests.


Subject UK foreign policy. Significance Last week the EU and United Kingdom published their negotiating objectives for the future relationship. The European Commission’s negotiating mandate largely reflects the Political Declaration, including a desire for close formal cooperation in defence, security and foreign policy. The United Kingdom’s objectives indicate that it wants less formal cooperation as it seeks to de-institutionalise its relationship with the bloc. Impacts The economic impact of Brexit could cut the size of the UK defence budget, which has already fallen more than 10% in real terms since 2010. The absence of formal channels of EU-UK cooperation and coordination could result in a weakening of the EU’s sanctions regime on Russia.  The re-election of US President Donald Trump would herald a further four years of transatlantic tensions.


Significance A range of parties, old and new, are battling for the attention of two broad electoral constituencies, one inclined towards Europe, and the other looking east to Russia. Moscow has a clear interest in its Socialist allies winning, but that outcome is uncertain. Impacts Perceptions that the political process (regardless of victors) is controlled by oligarchs will dampen investor interest. The EU is already concerned about some of its notional allies in government but would prefer a pro-Western to a pro-Moscow government. The longer-term drift, economic and ultimately political, is towards the EU.


Author(s):  
M. A. Kukartseva

The article considers the essence and peculiarities of realizing of human security in the EU external policy in general and specifically in Africa. The article reveals the principles of the EU interest in Africa as a focus of their humanitarian policy: phantoms of the collective memory of the political class of Western European countries, huge potential of resources and markets, migration and terrorist threat. It is argued that this policy is considered by the EU as its strategic foreign policy narrative, in the course of which the Union, while ensuring the security of the African continent, primarily realizes its own interests. Specific features of the interpretation of this narrative in official documents of Germany as a key member of the EU are specified. It is revealed that Germany aims to play a major role in shaping European policy towards the African continent, and the specificity of its approach is economic-centric, which distinguishes it from the EU’s general approach to Africa. The key question of the article is how is disinterested Germany’s role, despite its permeation with the spirit of liberal values as a supplier of human security to African countries. It is shown that the discrimination of refugees and migrants in migration flows in the EU emphasized the importance of the Union’s activities in ensuring human security in Africa. In accordance with its goal to become the leading actor of the EU policy on the continent, its role as a leader of the liberal world and the peculiarities of the consequences of the migration crisis for the political and party system of the country and the stability of the social state, Germany proposed the German “Marshall Plan” for Africa as a concretization of its humanitarian policy on the continent. The parameters of this Plan, its advantages and implementation difficulties are considered. It is concluded that the Germany’s approach to Africa, on the whole, indisputably contributes to the latter’s development. At the same time, it is to a large extent focused on solving the tasks of ensuring national security of Germany itself, promoting the interests of German business, creating new German “reserves” in Africa through the African partnership. In this bi-directional process there is no obvious contradiction, but the results of this process can become ambivalent.


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