Russia faces tougher Biden but arms talks offer hope

Significance Biden offers Moscow a more straightforward approach that will make constructive dialogue easier, a genuine interest in finding areas of common agreement but also coherent policymaking that sets clear constraints on Russian actions. Impacts Biden is unlikely to contemplate a personal meeting with Russia's Vladimir Putin any time soon. Putin's talk of a defence alliance with China is probably a rhetorical challenge to Washington, for which Beijing matters more. With Trump gone, Republicans will compete to claim they are tougher on Putin than Biden.

Significance The December 7 virtual summit between Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin was an attempt to reduce the risk of imminent conflict. The results, including an agreement to discuss European security, appear to have had some success, but have not led to de-escalation: Moscow shows no sign of pulling back troops massed around Ukraine. Impacts The war risk is not top of the news agenda in Ukraine, and the government seems inclined to downplay it. Closer US-NATO alignment will ease European fears but complicate some decisions. After engagement further afield, NATO will revert to its core function of assuring security in Europe.


Subject Russian agriculture Significance On June 24 President Vladimir Putin signed a decree to prolong Russia's food embargo in retaliation for the continuation of Western sanctions. Putin said the counter-sanctions would benefit domestic producers. The extension will last until August 2016. Russia's food embargo was initially introduced in August 2014 against EU members, the United States, Canada, Australia and Norway. The August 2014 embargo applied to most imports of fruit, vegetables, meat, fish and dairy and milk products. Impacts Russia will remain a large global exporter of grain, but increased investment will be needed, particularly on machinery. Moscow may expand the embargo to new sectors to inflict greater pain on Western producers. Simultaneously, it will seek to increase agricultural ties with non-Western markets to ensure food security.


Subject Outlook for Russia-Asia gas ties. Significance Last year, Russia's President Vladimir Putin signed a 30 year deal worth 400 billion dollars to sell 38 billion cubic metres (bcm) yearly of natural gas to China, starting in 2018-19. Gazprom will have to build the 4,000 kilometres 'Power of Siberia' pipeline. The deal is the cornerstone of Russia's pivot towards Asia. Other elements include the East Siberia Pacific Oil Pipeline, the liberalisation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and the planned second pipeline to China via the Altai Western route. However, the past year's events are frustrating Moscow's ambitions. Whether Russia succeeds or not bears implications for the global gas industry. Impacts By 2035, over 30% of Russia's gas exports will go to Asia. Liquefaction technologies are not on the sanctions list, but they might be if sanctions were widened. To seal the Altai deal, Russia will have to grant price discounts to make the offer too good to refuse.


Subject Russian foreign policy in 2016. Significance Russian foreign policy is driven by an amalgam of realpolitik, nationalism and anti-Western ideology, and consists of both defensive and offensive strategies. The robust, confrontational approach championed by President Vladimir Putin in recent years has produced successes in such areas as the military campaign in Syria, but an undecided outcome in Ukraine and mixed results in other parts of the former Soviet Union. Impacts A NATO summit this July may result in a tougher, more coordinated stance on Russia. Following its official partial withdrawal from Syria, the Russian military will conduct selective attacks. Russia will need careful diplomacy to keep Belarus and Kazakhstan from drifting away as allies.


Subject Prospects for Russian economy in 2016. Significance Russia's economy in 2015 has continued to be plagued by low oil prices that hovered under 50 dollars per barrel, and Western sanctions over Moscow's actions in Ukraine. As the Syrian intervention has shown, President Vladimir Putin is still intent on using Russia's military power to influence global events and also possibly to deflect domestic attention from Russia's economic plight.


Subject Prospects for Russian domestic politics in 2019. Significance Although President Vladimir Putin was re-elected with a large majority in 2018, widely held grievances about pension reform and economic hardship present challenges to which the authorities are proving unable or unwilling to respond adequately. Putin's six-year economic stimulus package faces many obstacles and its mid-to-long-term aims mean it cannot deliver a swift political pay-off.


Significance The population is set to shrink until at least 2036. To support labour productivity as a factor for GDP growth, President Vladimir Putin has set out plans to encourage families and reduce premature death that may realistically slow but not reverse the trend. Impacts Opposition groups will try to capitalise on popular discontent provoked by impending increases in retirement age. New individual financial savings products are needed to help working people plan for future. Permanent immigration from Central Asia and the Caucasus will deplete those countries' labour forces, harming growth prospects.


Subject Soft versus hard versions of nationalism in Belarus. Significance Under pressure from Moscow to make concessions on energy and political relations, President Alexander Lukashenka is trying to turn this to his advantage by presenting himself as the sole effective defender of Belarusian independence. The opposition is warning Lukashenka not to submit to Russian expansionism, making this a central issue for a presidential election due by August 30. Moscow may consider backing an alternative to Lukashenka, but pressing too hard might be counterproductive. Impacts A sudden economic downturn caused by oil supply problems could provoke apolitical and less controllable protests. Constitutional changes in Russia reduce the likelihood that Vladimir Putin wants to head a unified Russian-Belarusian state. Lukashenka will try to rally support from other Eurasian Economic Union leaders in his campaign for better trade terms with Russia. The president will use US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's visit and EU engagement as a partial balance against Russia.


Significance The changes enable Vladimir Putin to run for the presidency again in 2024 and 2030, despite his repeated promises not to do so. As the authorities went all-out to secure the right result, the early voting process was less than transparent and there were numerous reports of abuses and fraud on the day. Impacts The key short-term factor for political uncertainty is the duration of the COVID-19 crisis. The Kremlin has deflected blame from itself so far but a deepening health crisis could make this unsustainable. Following claims of vote-rigging, election commission chief Ella Pamfilova may be sacrificed ahead of the parliamentary elections.


2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 175-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gillian Oliver ◽  
Fiorella Foscarini ◽  
Craigie Sinclair ◽  
Catherine Nicholls ◽  
Lydia Loriente

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to report on the application of information culture analysis techniques in the workplace. The paper suggests that records managers should use ethnographic sensitivity, if they want to have a constructive dialogue with records creators and users, and effect positive change in their organisations. Design/methodology/approach Two pilot studies were conducted in university settings for the purpose of testing an information culture assessment toolkit. The university records managers who carried out the investigation approached the fieldwork ethnographically, in the sense that they were interested in the perspectives of their end users, and tried to understand their information cultures, rather than imposing their recordkeeping concepts and procedures. Findings Information culture analysis was of practical utility in large complex organisations, providing an insight into behaviours, motivations, and most importantly promoted reflection and dialogue among organisational actors. Originality/value The paper raises awareness of the diversity of professional skills and knowledge required by records practitioners. It emphasises that to remain relevant to their organisations, records managers have to be receptive and sensitive to cultural influences.


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