Belarus leader espouses patriotism to ensure survival
Subject Soft versus hard versions of nationalism in Belarus. Significance Under pressure from Moscow to make concessions on energy and political relations, President Alexander Lukashenka is trying to turn this to his advantage by presenting himself as the sole effective defender of Belarusian independence. The opposition is warning Lukashenka not to submit to Russian expansionism, making this a central issue for a presidential election due by August 30. Moscow may consider backing an alternative to Lukashenka, but pressing too hard might be counterproductive. Impacts A sudden economic downturn caused by oil supply problems could provoke apolitical and less controllable protests. Constitutional changes in Russia reduce the likelihood that Vladimir Putin wants to head a unified Russian-Belarusian state. Lukashenka will try to rally support from other Eurasian Economic Union leaders in his campaign for better trade terms with Russia. The president will use US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's visit and EU engagement as a partial balance against Russia.