Haiti election schedule ushers in year of tensions

Significance This will be a hectic electoral year, with a referendum on a new, as yet unknown, constitution scheduled for April and then presidential, legislative and local elections later in the year. Tensions will be high ahead of these polls, especially given opposition concerns that President Jovenel Moise will seek re-election and to entrench himself in power. Impacts Major investments will be paused in 2021 as businesses wait for electoral tensions to pass. Given Haiti’s weak economy, international funding may be needed to allow all the elections to be held. Any sustained increase in violence could lead the UN to consider a temporary pre-election peacekeeping or monitoring deployment.

2019 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Soud Alelaimat

Purpose This study aims to identify the factors affecting the political participation of Jordanian university students, especially their voting in national and local elections. The study examines the impact of gender, age, family income and regional affiliation that represent important social and economic factors affecting political participation on the voting of Jordanian university students. Design/methodology/approach Quantitative research method was used in this study. The study population contained three Jordanian universities representing the various segments of the Jordanian society: Al-Al Bayt University (Northern Region), Jordanian University (Central Region) and Mu'tah University (Southern Region). The study relied on a purposive sample of 900 students, 300 students per university (150 males and 150 females). The survey was conducted in the academic year 2018-2019. A questionnaire reviewed by two jurors (peer reviewers) was used to collect the data. Findings The study concluded that the gender, age, family income and regional affiliation factors affect the voting of Jordanian university students in national and local elections. The more the gender varies, the more the voting shifts in favor of males students. The more the age varies, the more the voting shifts in favor of older students. The more the family income varies, the more the voting shifts in favor of high-income students. The more the regional affiliation varies, the more the voting shifts in favor of Jordanians students. Originality/value This study is an approach to interpret the factors affecting voting of Jordanian university students, such as gender, age, family income and regional affiliation, which led to different voting in the national and local elections.


Subject Urban governance in South Africa. Significance Amid preparations for 2016 local elections, the Treasury has warned that 86 out 278 municipalities are in "financial distress". Urban debt woes are causing fiscal risks elsewhere in the state apparatus, notably for power utility Eskom. Political interference in senior appointments and consequent high executive turnover and skills deficits are partly to blame. However, it is also clear that some municipalities are unviable. Impacts Municipalities in former 'homeland' areas will be hard to reform due to the added layer of government created by traditional chiefs. High wage demands from public sector unions may force municipalities to cut capital or maintenance spending, hurting service delivery. The fortunes of large cities such as Johannesburg will continue to diverge from smaller municipalities.


Significance King Mohammed VI has committed forces to the Saudi-led coalition conducing operations in Yemen to reinforce the alliance with Gulf states. It may be because of these ties that Morocco's Islamist Justice and Development Party (PJD) survived the regional political backlash against the Muslim Brotherhood -- with which the PJD has some parallels, but no formal links. Prime Minister and PJD leader Abdelilah Benkirane has developed a close working relationship with King Mohammed and the royal court. With the economy performing well, Benkirane's chances of prolonging his mandate look promising. Impacts Local elections will signal the level of popular support for the PJD. If Benkirane retains the premiership post-2016, he may seek a more prominent role for the PJD -- in cabinet and the civil service. This could bring him into conflict with the king.


Significance However, the June 14 local elections resulted overall in the pro-European parties winning 56.5%, with the pro-Russians securing 31.5%. The result will be a relief for the pro-European camp, which had feared that the ongoing banking scandal -- which has seen 1 billion dollars go missing and the resignation on June 12 of Prime Minister Chiril Gaburici -- could portend an upsurge in support for pro-Russian groups. However, despite the pro-European win, Moldova's Gagauz region remains one of Russia's strongest supporters and will remain a potential pressure point. Impacts Russia's enduring prominence in Gagauzia's political landscape will give Moscow a foothold in Moldovan politics. Russia's interest in Moldovan politics will prompt Moldovan supporters of European integration to speed up that process. The EU will have to continue to support Moldova's economy, if only to match Russia's economic support for Gagauzia.


Subject Kyrgyzstan's constitutional referendum. Significance Now that President Almazbek Atambayev has secured the constitutional changes he wanted, it is unclear how he benefits. The December 11 referendum was a success in its own terms despite the dearth of public understanding of the issues, but was accompanied by an acrimonious divorce between the ruling Social Democratic Party and its long-term coalition partner, Ata-Meken. Impacts A weaker government and divided parliament will struggle to focus on chronic and serious economic problems. The Social Democrats are in a stronger position nationwide thanks to their strong showing in simultaneous local elections. Kyrgyz nationalist and conservative groups will feel emboldened as some of the amendments are seen as concessions to them.


Subject African politics and security to end-2017. Significance Key regional leaders are set to step down from national and party presidencies in Angola and South Africa, presidents in Nigeria and Zimbabwe are in ill health, while growing displacement crises in the Central African Republic (CAR) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) could worsen without increased international funding and support. Although famine risks have lessened in South Sudan, conflict and instability will persist in Nigeria and Somalia as renewed insurgency threats grow.


Significance Military and security personnel voted early on April 29, with a turnout of 12%. There are concerns that widespread apathy, coupled with a desire among the Tunisian electorate with the opportunity to express their dissatisfaction with the unity government’s performance, will dampen turnout and undermine the municipal councils from the outset. Impacts The local election results could cause parties to reassess campaign strategies for the 2019 general elections. Local governance will be effective only if adequate mechanisms are in place to transfer financial resources. The municipal elections present an opportunity for women and younger candidates.


Subject Relations between sub-national governments in Taiwan and China. Significance China is attempting to bypass Taiwan’s central government -- with which it has severed formal ties -- and forge better relations with major municipalities and locally elected leaders. These efforts have found greater success since recent local elections that dealt major setbacks to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Impacts Politicians from both parties will be emboldened to turn to Chinese investment to stimulate local economies. Han Kuo-yu, newly elected mayor of Kaohsiung city, could lead the main opposition party’s comeback at the national level. Relations with China are likely to play a decisive role once again in Taiwan’s 2020 national elections.


Subject The Local Administration Draft Law. Significance A new Local Administration Draft Law is currently being discussed in parliament to replace the existing legislation, dating from 1979. The capacity of local government to carry out various developmental functions has long been undermined by the centralised political and fiscal system. The new law, however, aims to give broader powers to subnational authorities. The law is meant to pave the way for local elections, scheduled for the first quarter of 2019. Impacts The central government will use local elections to boost its popularity and demonstrate commitment to democratic reform. The application of the new law will increase competition among local government units to attract private investment. The local economy will grow in areas where councillors can ease the process of doing business and decrease bureaucracy. More job opportunities will be created at the local level.


Significance For the first time, there is a sustained increase in support for Scottish independence. The main reasons include dislike of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his cabinet north of the border, the UK government’s pursuit of a ‘hard’ Brexit and questions about its response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Impacts Soaring Scottish unemployment when the UK furlough schemes end would undermine London’s claim to be protecting Scottish jobs. Rising support for Scottish independence could prompt the UK government to seek a closer trade agreement with the EU. The UK government will be unable to conceal the economic impacts of Brexit under the economic fallout of COVID-19. A Scottish vote for independence would put huge pressure on the UK government to resign and call early elections.


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