China’s ‘dual circulation’ aims at economic security

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Electronic Components ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Short Run ◽  
External Conditions ◽  
Innovation Capacity ◽  
Quantum Technology ◽  
D Investment

Significance It contains both continuity, in its emphasis on domestic demand as a driver of growth, and discontinuity, in its shift in focus towards adjusting to unfavourable external conditions -- in particular tension with the United States, which Beijing expects will continue in the long term. Impacts In the short run, the lingering effects of the pandemic and recurrence of local outbreaks will constrain more buoyant consumption growth. Electronic components, food and energy will be priorities for self-reliance. Significant rises in R&D investment will be needed if China is to increase its innovation capacity substantially. Priority sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, quantum technology and life sciences will be specific targets for R&D.

China's Five-Year Plan aims at economic security

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Demand Growth ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
Consumer Markets ◽  
New Strategies

Significance The lessons of the COVID-19 pandemic and responses to more antagonistic relations with the United States have been written into Beijing's long-term plans. Some existing priorities have gained new salience and new strategies have been added. Impacts Self-sufficiency means more emphasis on a strong manufacturing sector and less on services. Downplaying GDP growth acknowledges the uncertainty of the medium-term outlook and the inevitability of growth slowing in the longer term. Increases in per capita income will help promote demand growth, as will expanding online consumer markets, especially in rural areas. Major targets for consumption spending include cars, housing and services such as education and healthcare.

India’s vaccine diplomacy brings money and influence

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
The United States ◽  
Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pharmaceutical Ingredients ◽  
The World

Significance Last week, its partners in the ‘Quad’ grouping -- the United States, Japan and Australia -- agreed to help increase its vaccine manufacturing and exporting capacity. Each of the Quad members is wary of China, which like India is gifting and selling coronavirus jabs around the world. Impacts India’s manufacturing sector will attract more foreign direct investment. Greater cooperation over supply chains will help strengthen India-Australia ties. Indian pharma will in the long term aim to ease dependence on imports of active pharmaceutical ingredients from China.

Plans will raise China's profile in standard-setting

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Standard Setting ◽  
The United States ◽  
Leadership Role ◽  
International Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Green Development ◽  
Development Feature ◽  
Market Driven ◽  
Industry Associations

Significance They establish a framework for building China’s influence in the standard-setting realm over the next 15 years. China has developed a considerable presence in standards development organisations, both at the international level and in industry associations primarily based in the United States and Europe. However, its influence in these forums remains low relative to its ambitions. Impacts China will allow market-driven multistakeholder standards associations a greater role in a process so far coordinated mainly by the state. The Communist Party will maintain an overall leadership role in driving China’s standardisation work. China-led regional forums and China-based multistakeholder associations may in the long term displace US-based forums in specific areas. Environmental protection and 'green development' feature heavily in the guidelines, offering concrete areas for international cooperation. China will look to gain competencies in accreditation, certification, inspection and testing, where it has historically lagged.

Does the exchange rate overshoot in an emerging economy?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Aftab ◽  
Amir Rafique ◽  
Evan Lau
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Extant Literature ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Substantial Decline

Purpose The sticky-price monetary model of exchange rate states the overshooting hypothesis as, exchange rate depreciation beyond its long-term value in response to an increase in money supply owing to the sticky nature of prices. Because of interest and relevance to policy, there is a huge extant literature on it but with mixed findings that suggest the need for further studies to refine the findings. Pakistan’s rupee exchange rate against the US dollar depreciated 128.44% over the period May 2007–December 2018. Considering this substantial decline in rupee's value, this study aims to examine either the rupee short-run value is over-shot of its long-term value. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a linear ARDL approach that segregates the short-run and long-run effects thus clarifying the premise of exchange rate overshooting. Furthermore, this study also uses nonlinear ARDL as a robustness check incorporating structural breaks. Findings Findings based on a linear model show evidence of exchange rate undershooting that means a positive money shock causes the exchange rate to appreciate. A nonlinear analysis also provides support to these findings. However, the increase in relative money supply has more such effect than that of a decrease in the relative money supply. Moreover, the authorities’ inclination to stabilize the exchange rate appreciates its short-run value. Originality/value This study substantiates the overshooting hypothesis literature by considering the role of asymmetric effects of exchange rate determinants and structural breaks that is a rare attempt in the extant literature.

Equity market timing and capital structure: evidence on post-IPO firms in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dewi Ratih
Keyword(s):  
Capital Structure ◽  
Market Timing ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Corporate Capital ◽  
Corporate Capital Structure ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Equity Market Timing

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze and evaluate the impacts of equity market timing on corporate capital structure policies in Indonesia by apply Baker and Wurgler’s analytical approach to firms in Indonesia to see, first, if that approach applies to Indonesian firms and, second, if it can be generalized to other emerging markets. Design/methodology/approach This study will focus on capital structure policies based on Market Timing Theory in developing countries, which uses the panel data of companies listed in Indonesian Stock Exchange after IPO. The companies used as research object are 70 firms in the non-financial/non-banking sector with the observation period of 2000–2015. The period of measurement is five years after IPO. Using a past market value in which equity market timing is measured in two-time measurements, i.e. yearly timing and long-term timing to prove its persistence. Findings Consistent with equity market timing theory, the results suggest that firms tend to issue equities when their market valuations are relatively higher than their book values and their past market values are high. As a consequence, the firms become underleveraged or have their debts reduced in the short run. The results of long-term measurement on equity market timing do not appear to affect the firms’ capital structure decisions due to the firms’ relatively quick adjustments of optimal capital structures. The conclusion is that equity market timing is an important element in the short run but not in the long run. Research limitations/implications The results of this study describe how firms in Indonesia take advantage of temporary market share fluctuations through equity market timing in their capital structure policies before ultimately making adjustments to the directions they are targeting. Practical implications The use of equity market timing is more aimed at reducing the debt ratio and avoiding unfavorable conditions in the debt market, as well as taking advantage of the capital gains derived from the differences in their stock prices. This study also has practical implications on investment policies that need to consider the adaptation factor of the industrial environment when it comes to making capital structure decisions, including how the entity must take policy when uncertain economic conditions. Social implications Through the research behavior of capital structure more in-depth decision is expected to provide an overview for investors widely in determining investment policy. Thus, the investment strategy is more planned and can also anticipate unexpected conditions. Originality/value This research is the first study to analyze and to evaluate the impacts of equity market timing on corporate capital structure policies on post-IPO firms in Indonesia. This research is an empirical study that investigates the relevance of equity market timing considerations in the determination of debt-equity choices in the capital structure, included in the conditions of the global financial crisis.

Overeducation, persistence and unemployment in Spanish labour market

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nuria Sánchez-Sánchez ◽  
Adolfo Cosme Fernández Puente
Keyword(s):  
Education Reform ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
High Elasticity ◽  
The One ◽  
Term Labour

PurposeThe phenomenon of overeducation and the magnitude and persistence of the imbalance impact are analysed for the Spanish labour market from 2006 to 2013.Design/methodology/approachThe authors present random-effects probit estimations comparing individuals and their short-term and long-term labour mismatches.FindingsThe results support the existence of long-term persistence (status in the previous year) and short-term persistence (status at the beginning of the observed period) in overeducation. Precariousness in the labour market, measured by temporality or by the strong destruction of employment, could force individuals to choose a job below their qualification. Additionally, the phenomenon of overeducation is shown to have increased in the period 2010–2013 in relation to the period 2006–2009 independently of the region considered, though those regions with higher unemployment rates display greater imbalances.Research limitations/implicationsAlthough the results come from two different samples, it is possible to conclude that overeducation is a phenomenon that tends to perpetuate over time in Spain.Practical implicationsOne of the issues of greatest interest that is crucial to assess the relevance of the spreading of overeducation is whether overeducation can be considered as a temporal mismatch, in which case the seriousness of the problem would not be so important, or, on the contrary, as a persistent one, in which case, governments should take it into account in their education reform programmes.Originality/valueOvereducation persistence has been studied in countries such as the United States, Canada, Switzerland or Germany; however, in Spain, there are hardly any studies. Spanish labour market has certain specificities that make the analyses relevant: the high unemployment rates and high elasticity of employment with respect to the economic cycles. Under these circumstances, workers could opt for more stable positions that require a lower qualification than the one they have. This option could be even more convenient during crisis. Additionally, the article includes a disaggregated analysis by Spanish regions. The differences in the unemployment rates within and between regions are significant (some of them had at the beginning of the crisis an unemployment rate close to 7%, while in others it exceeded 12%) which allows the authors to study the phenomenon in different contexts.

The alternative futures of the International Centre for Biosaline Agriculture: from salinity research to greening the desert

foresight ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 389-409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sohail Inayatullah ◽  
Ismahane A. Elouafi
Keyword(s):  
Action Learning ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Alternative Futures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Knowledge Based ◽  
Strategic Plans ◽  
Short Run ◽  
History Of ◽  
Anticipatory Action

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present findings, based on a report for the International Centre for Biosaline Agriculture (ICBA), of the preferred visions, scenarios and strategies of stakeholders articulated at a workshop held in Dubai from November 25 to 26, 2012. Design/methodology/approach – The “six pillars” approach to foresight was used to articulate visions of preferred futures of over 50 international stakeholders, including representatives from the UAE Government, national and international donors, the private sector and leading scientists from universities and international scientific institutions. These visions were then translated into a strategic and business plan for ICBA. Findings – The research center was successfully able to use foresight methods to develop a long-term strategic plan, continuing its history of innovation in knowledge-based research relating to saline and marginal environments. Novel visions and strategies for water and food futures were developed. A risk assessment of each vision was conducted. Research limitations/implications – This case study presents visions with scenarios and strategic pathways. It illustrates the utility in setting long-term visions first and then linking with strategic plans. Limitations include that the success of such a venture cannot be judged for at least five to six years. While in the short run, resources – human, partnerships, capital and leadership – have been mobilized, it is too soon to gauge real success of the foresight workshop, project. Practical implications – The study shows links between visions, scenarios and strategic pathways. Social implications – The study includes valuable discussions by leading scientists of water and food futures as well as the organizational and leadership capabilities required to deliver alternative futures. Originality/value – One of the few workshop-oriented interventions in the Middle East and North Africa Region (MENA) region using the anticipatory action learning six pillars framework is included. The study contrasts normal expert-based conferencing in the MENA region.

scholarly journals Using the ARDL-ECM approach to investigate the nexus between support price and wheat production

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 139-152
Author(s):  
Abbas Ali Chandio ◽  
Yuansheng Jiang ◽  
Abdul Rehman
Keyword(s):  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Wheat Production ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Long Term Effect ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Support Price ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effect Of Support

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of support price on wheat production in Pakistan during the period 1971–2016.Design/methodology/approachTo capture the effect of support price on wheat production, the authors estimated the long-run linkage by using the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration.FindingsThis study confirmed the presence of a positive and long-term effect of area under cultivation, support price and fertilizer consumption on wheat production through ARDL bounds test. The results showed that both in the long run and short run, support price plays an important role in the enhancement of wheat production. The authors also found that the coefficients of the area under cultivation and fertilizer consumption variables were statistically significant and positive both in the long run and short run.Originality/valueThe use of the ARDL approach that examines the long-run and short-run effects of support price on wheat production in Pakistan makes the current study unique. An emerging economic literature suggests that only limited research has been conducted in this area.

scholarly journals New Zealand White Rabbits Effectively ClearBorrelia burgdorferiB31 despite the Bacterium’s FunctionalvlsEAntigenic Variation System

2019 ◽  
Vol 87 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maliha Batool ◽  
Andrew E. Hillhouse ◽  
Yurij Ionov ◽  
Kelli J. Kochan ◽  
Fatemeh Mohebbi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Persistent Infection ◽  
Antigenic Variation ◽  
Surface Expression ◽  
The United States ◽  
Antimicrobial Treatment ◽  
Current Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Highly Evolved

ABSTRACTBorrelia burgdorferiis a tick-borne bacterium responsible for approximately 300,000 annual cases of Lyme disease (LD) in the United States, with increasing incidences in other parts of the world. The debilitating nature of LD is mainly attributed to the ability ofB. burgdorferito persist in patients for many years despite strong anti-Borreliaantibody responses. Antimicrobial treatment of persistent infection is challenging. Similar to infection of humans,B. burgdorferiestablishes long-term infection in various experimental animal models except for New Zealand White (NZW) rabbits, which clear the spirochete within 4 to 12 weeks. LD spirochetes have a highly evolved antigenic variationvlssystem, on the lp28-1 plasmid, where gene conversion results in surface expression of the antigenically variable VlsE protein. VlsE is required forB. burgdorferito establish persistent infection by continually evading otherwise potent antibodies. Since the clearance ofB. burgdorferiis mediated by humoral immunity in NZW rabbits, the previously reported results that LD spirochetes lose lp28-1 during rabbit infection could potentially explain the failure ofB. burgdorferito persist. However, the present study unequivocally disproves that previous finding by demonstrating that LD spirochetes retain thevlssystem. However, despite thevlssystem being fully functional, the spirochete fails to evade anti-Borreliaantibodies of NZW rabbits. In addition to being protective against homologous and heterologous challenges, the rabbit antibodies significantly ameliorate LD-induced arthritis in persistently infected mice. Overall, the current data indicate that NZW rabbits develop a protective antibody repertoire, whose specificities, once defined, will identify potential candidates for a much-anticipated LD vaccine.

Global R&D policy will shift toward industrial needs

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
The United States ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
The 2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
Industrial Needs ◽  
D Investment ◽  
The Eu

Subject Outlook for R&D policies across OECD countries. Significance China has just announced new rules that greatly expand its visa programme for allowing foreign scientists to settle in the country, the People's Daily reported on January 25. Rising research and development (R&D) expenditure in BRICS countries is reducing the lead of OECD economies and deepening the interdependence between regions occupying key niches in global value chains. The 2008 financial crisis has reframed the importance of R&D policies as a means of responding to low productivity growth in OECD economies and for tackling major policy issues with limited funds. The oil price fall will affect green innovation adversely, but could spur further R&D investment in emerging economies dependent on fossil fuel exports. Impacts Advances in vehicle telematics, wearable technology and mobile payment will fuel developments in big data. The United States will invest more in R&D than the EU, as it has stronger foundations in the digital economy. The BRICS economies will see growing importance, as China's gross R&D overtook the EU in 2012.

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