Norway election is unlikely to alter energy policy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
European Economic Area ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Green Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Area ◽  
Parliamentary Support

Significance Polls suggest that Conservative Party, which has led government for eight years, will not be re-elected. The smaller parties which the Conservatives usually rely on for parliamentary support are also polling poorly. The opposition Labour Party appears in poll position to lead the next government. Impacts Stable oil prices and rising gas prices will help drive Norway’s economic recovery in the short term. The Green Party, which adopts the most hard-line position against oil and gas, is unlikely to be in the next government. A strong result for the Centre Party could see Norway become more critical of the European Economic Area and Schengen regime.

Florida voters react to Biden's Caribbean policy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Relief ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
The State ◽  
Pivotal Role ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Family Connections ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The Government

Significance Many areas of the Caribbean have trade, investment and family connections with communities in Florida. As the state now plays a pivotal role in US electoral politics, crises in the region can take on added political importance for parts of Florida’s electorate. Impacts Forecasts of short-term economic recovery for Florida remain highly uncertain given the continuing impact of the pandemic. Clashing interests across the Caribbean may demand greater coordination of US policy than the government can currently offer. Healthcare and disaster relief capabilities within the state are severely overstretched and could be overwhelmed by a new crisis.

Examining year-end spending spikes in the European Economic Area: a comparative study of procurement contracts

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Clifford P. McCue ◽  
Eric Prier ◽  
Ryan J. Lofaro
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Study ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Public Procurement ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
European Economic Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
European Economic ◽  
Economic Area ◽  
Contract Type ◽  
Procurement Contracts

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to analyze year-end spending practices in the European Economic Area (EEA) to baseline the pervasiveness of year-end spending spikes across countries in Europe.Design/methodology/approachThe Tenders Electronic Daily dataset is used to descriptively analyze above-threshold procurement contracts by country, year and contract type from 2009 to 2018. Proportional distributions are employed to compare percentages of spend across quarters. Analyses are run within each country on the number of years displaying a fourth quarter spike, as well as within each country and contract type.FindingsThe results show that while spending spikes for above-threshold contracts in the final fiscal quarter are not consistent across all countries, patterns emerge when the data are disaggregated by country. The most populous nations in the EEA are more likely to have years with the highest proportion of fiscal spend occurring in the fourth quarter. Further, the type of contract makes a difference – services and supplies contracts are more likely to display fourth quarter spikes than works contracts.Originality/valueThis article provides the first analysis of the year-end spending spike across countries in Europe using procurement data, as well as the first to disaggregate by year and contract type. Findings support the literature on the presence of year-end spikes; such spikes exist even for above-threshold public procurement contracts.

Legacy issues constrain Sudan's economic recovery

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Sudanese ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Fiscal Revenue

Significance Khartoum has benefited from a fixed per-barrel transit fee given falling oil prices, but the Sudanese economy has yet to recover from the shock caused by South Sudan's secession in 2011. According to the IMF's latest review, Sudan at that point lost three quarters of its oil production, one-half of its fiscal revenue and two-thirds of its international payments capacity. While the economy has begun to stabilise, recovery is fragile. Impacts Khartoum benefits from the delay to transit fee renegotiation, but talks are likely to begin soon. This may provoke renewed confrontations over other issues, such as the border and claims about rebel support. However, a renewed suspension of South Sudanese oil exports would hurt Juba more than Khartoum.

UK voters will ignore budget and elect hung parliament

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Economic ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Political Event ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Deficit Reduction

Significance The budget will prove to be all but the last political event before the final campaign and the May 7 general election. Although the detail had to be determined in cooperation with the Liberal Democrats, Osborne's package was an unashamed pitch for a Conservative term of office. The crucial contest at the election will be the government's claim to have delivered on economic recovery and deficit reduction over the past five years, versus the Labour Party's assertion that its own preferred route to budgetary stability is better balanced and more socially acceptable. Impacts The link, if any, between the economy and politics is uncertain: the Conservatives won in 1992 (recession) but lost in 1997 (boom). The United Kingdom has experienced a 'voteless recovery' -- a huge move from pessimism to optimism, with no benefit for the Conservatives. Benign international economic conditions (notably the sharp fall in global oil prices) have boosted growth for 2015. This shift could be easily reversed if oil prices were to return to 2012-14 levels. Assumptions that the 'age of austerity' is over and the budget will achieve balance in the next parliament are very premature.

Africa's 'oil price winners' face mixed prospects

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Southern Africa ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Political Space ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Diversification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Civil Unrest ◽  
Sub Saharan

Subject Africa's oil price winners. Significance Despite traditionally being winners during periods of oil price decline, the medium-term outlook is mixed for sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) oil importing countries -- reflected in the IMF's recent downgrade of its SSA outlook from 5.75% to 4.9%. Short-term gains reduce the fuel import bill, but uncertainty looms over energy investments in eastern African, while idiosyncratic risks cloud the outlook for southern Africa. While oil exporters may also reap some benefits, much will depend on the degree of oil dependency, political space to make the necessary policy retrenchments, and the extent of government financial buffers. Impacts If sustained, low oil prices could provoke civil unrest, rather than reforms, in oil exporting countries. Most oil exporters will struggle to maintain macroeconomic stability if oil remains low for more than a year. However, economic diversification to some degree helps to shield the region from sharp global slowdowns.

Low oil prices put pressure on China's energy policy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
International Market ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
National Oil Companies ◽  
Financial Pressure ◽  
Difficult Time

Subject Effect of low oil prices on China. Significance China is the world's second-largest oil user and imports nearly 60% of its annual requirements. If oil prices remain below 50 dollars per barrel, China's import bill for crude oil will fall by tens of billions of dollars in 2015, while the national oil companies (NOCs) face a difficult time as their profits from oil production are squeezed. However, the consequences are not straightforward due to the government's role in setting energy prices and the mix of commercial and state objectives of the NOCs. Impacts Financial pressure on China's NOCs will not be as great as on their international counterparts. The NOCs are likely to embark on a spree of buying overseas oil and gas assets. With contracted gas supplies exceeding domestic demand, Chinese LNG importers will sell surplus on the international market.

Low oil prices will force policy choices on Azerbaijan

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Choices ◽  
The Past ◽  
Fiscal Space ◽  
Will Force ◽  
The Impact

Subject The impact of prolonged low oil prices. Significance Hydrocarbons drove rapid economic expansion in the past. The associated increase in income fuelled the growth of domestically oriented sectors, such as trade and construction. Publicly financed infrastructure spending, using the fiscal space created by oil and gas revenues, also contributed. Impacts Sluggish oil production will compound the impact of persistent low oil prices. Fiscal consolidation will also require a stronger focus on the prioritisation of spending. Devaluation has not fully restored competitiveness but is a source of stress for the banking system.

New Cyprus parliament will be tougher to deal with

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Presidential System ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Government ◽  
Republic Of Cyprus ◽  
Parliamentary Support

Subject The May 22 parliamentary elections. Significance The elections had the lowest turnout in the history of the Republic of Cyprus and brought about significant changes in the composition of the chamber. They were conducted amid a climate of fragile economic recovery and talks with the Turkish Cypriots on reunification. The outcome was a weakening of parliamentary support for the talks and a louder voice for nationalist, anti-austerity and anti-reform views. Impacts The government that is in place will not be affected because Cyprus has a presidential system. However, the lack of a parliamentary majority could hinder the Cypriot economy's fragile recovery. Resolving the division of Cyprus problem would be a significant positive boost for the very insecure Eastern Mediterranean.

Oil optimism may face headwinds in Guyana

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Environment ◽  
Oil Exploration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Border Dispute ◽  
Offshore Oil And Gas ◽  
Offshore Oil ◽  
Exploration Activity

Subject The outlook for offshore oil. Significance A recent offshore oil and gas find has given Guyana hope of becoming a significant oil producer. However, while this and an earlier find are encouraging and further exploration is planned, the current uncertain economic environment and fluctuating oil prices suggest that bringing these finds into production is not guaranteed. Impacts Oil exploration activity may prompt a flare-up of the continuing border dispute with Venezuela. A major offshore oil find would have a very significant impact on Guyana's GDP of some 4 billion dollars. However, over-optimism could lead to borrowing against an expected future windfall, or the temptation to prioritise 'vanity' projects.

Prospects for Nigeria in 2017

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Niger Delta ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type

Subject Prospects for Nigeria in 2017. Significance Hopes of an economic turnaround will be limited by the continued shortage of foreign exchange crippling industrial outputs and consumer sectors. Renewed militancy and halting of oil production in the Niger Delta -- in addition to isolated Boko Haram attacks -- could make economic recovery unachievable in the short term. Unemployment and everyday poverty in urban centres may create pockets of emergent protest.

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