Low oil prices will force policy choices on Azerbaijan

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Choices ◽  
The Past ◽  
Fiscal Space ◽  
Will Force ◽  
The Impact

Subject The impact of prolonged low oil prices. Significance Hydrocarbons drove rapid economic expansion in the past. The associated increase in income fuelled the growth of domestically oriented sectors, such as trade and construction. Publicly financed infrastructure spending, using the fiscal space created by oil and gas revenues, also contributed. Impacts Sluggish oil production will compound the impact of persistent low oil prices. Fiscal consolidation will also require a stronger focus on the prioritisation of spending. Devaluation has not fully restored competitiveness but is a source of stress for the banking system.

Gulf Cooperation Council

Policy Papers ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 (66) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
Business Climate ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Growth Environment ◽  
Fiscal Space ◽  
Global Growth

Global economic activity is gaining momentum. Global growth is forecast at 3.6 percent this year, and 3.7 percent in 2018, compared to 3.2 percent in 2016. Risks around this forecast are broadly balanced in the near term, but are skewed to the downside over the medium term. The more positive global growth environment should support somewhat stronger oil demand. With inflation in advanced countries remaining subdued, monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative. GCC countries are continuing to adjust to lower oil prices. Substantial fiscal consolidation has taken place in most countries, mainly focused on expenditure reduction. This is necessary, but it has weakened non-oil growth. With the pace of fiscal consolidation set to slow, non-oil growth is expected to increase to 2.6 percent this year, from 1.8 percent last year. However, because of lower oil output, overall real GDP growth is projected to slow to 0.5 percent in 2017 from 2.2 percent in 2016. Growth prospects in the medium-term remain subdued amid relatively low oil prices and geopolitical risks. Policymakers have made a strong start in adjusting fiscal policy. While the needed pace of fiscal adjustment varies across countries depending on the fiscal space available, in general countries should continue to focus on recurrent expenditure rationalization, further energy price reforms, increased non-oil revenues, and improved efficiency of capital spending. Fiscal consolidation should be accompanied by a further improvement in fiscal frameworks and institutions. The direction of fiscal policy in the GCC is broadly consistent with these recommendations. Policies should continue to be geared toward managing evolving liquidity situations in the banking system and supporting the private sector’s access to funding. While countries have made progress in enhancing their financial policy frameworks, strengthening liquidity forecasting and developing liquidity management instruments will help banks adjust to a tighter liquidity environment. Banks generally remain profitable, well capitalized, and liquid, but with growth expected to remain relatively weak, the monitoring of financial sector vulnerabilities should continue to be enhanced. Diversification and private sector development will be needed to offset lower government spending and ensure stronger, sustainable, and inclusive growth. This will require stepped-up reforms to improve the business climate and reduce the role of the public sector in the economy through privatization and PPPs. Reforms are needed to increase the incentives for nationals to work in the private sector and for private sector firms to hire them. Increasing female participation in the labor market and employment would benefit productivity and growth across the region. Where fiscal space is available, fiscal policy can be used to support the structural reforms needed to boost private sector growth and employment.

Shareholder risk-taking incentives in the presence of contingent capital

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahmoud Fatouh ◽  
Ayowande A. McCunn
Keyword(s):  
Risk Taking ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Basic Model ◽  
Conversion Rates ◽  
A Minor ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This paper aims to present a model of shareholders’ willingness to exert effort to reduce the likelihood of bank distress and the implications of the presence of contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds in the liabilities structure of a bank. Design/methodology/approach This study presents a basic model about the moral hazard surrounding shareholders willingness to exert effort that increases the likelihood of a bank’s success. This study uses a one-shot game and so do not capture the effects of repeated interactions. Findings Consistent with the existing literature, this study shows that the direction of the wealth transfer at the conversion of CoCo bonds determines their impact on shareholder risk-taking incentives. This study also finds that “anytime” CoCos (CoCo bonds trigger-able anytime at the discretion of managers) have a minor advantage over regular CoCo bonds, and that quality of capital requirements can reduce the risk-taking incentives of shareholders. Practical implications This study argues that shareholders can also use manager-specific CoCo bonds to reduce the riskiness of the bank activities. The issuance of such bonds can increase the resilience of individual banks and the whole banking system. Regulators can use restrictions on conversion rates and/or requirements on the quality of capital to address the impact of CoCo bonds issuance on risk-taking incentives. Originality/value To model the risk-taking incentives, authors generally modify the asset processes to introduce components that reflect asymmetric information between CoCo holders and shareholders and/or managers. This paper follows a simpler method similar to that of Holmström and Tirole (1998).

COVID-19 may hit less resilient EU eastern areas more

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Significant Development ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Capital Cities ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
The Past ◽  
Standards Of Living ◽  
Slow Progress ◽  
Economic Slowdown ◽  
Clear Cases ◽  
The Impact

Significance At least in the EU’s eleven eastern member states (EU-11), there has been significant if slow progress in lifting standards of living across the board in the past decade. However, progress is uneven and the impact of the economic slowdown due to lockdowns in the past year may well have affected disproportionately already poorer regions. Impacts Some governments, notably Hungary’s, will put political loyalty above need in directing recovery funds to the localities. People in ‘left-behind’ regions may seek a better life in relatively prosperous capital cities or abroad. There is scope for countries and regions to learn from each other given clear cases of significant development in the past decade.

Disintermediation of banks in a developing economy

2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 222-243 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tahseen Mohsan Khan ◽  
Syed Kumail Abbas Rizvi ◽  
Ramla Sadiq
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Panel Regressions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Major Hypothesis

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate how Pakistani banks manage their portfolios (lending vs investment) when the economic indicators are not supportive. This study investigates three aspects of the banking system in Pakistan – prevalence of disintermediation, post-crisis profitability orientation and depositor protection by financial system in unfavorable conditions. Design/methodology/approach This study is limited to identifying the key economic and financial drivers behind disintermediation and its subsequent impact on banks’ profitability and depositors’ protection. GLS panel regressions and Engle–Granger causality test as specified by the error correction model have been used to test the major hypothesis of this study. Findings This study shows that small banks have been shifting major part of their portfolios toward risk-free investments to be able to maintain their profitability more efficiently and effectively, like large banks. The study also observes that significant pairing causality exists between gross credit loans and investments confirming disintermediation hypothesis for all types of banks except Islamic or Sharia compliant banks, whereas for significant pairing causality, the results are mixed for remaining variables among gross credit loans as a proportion of assets and economic variables that include GDP growth, unemployment, KSE-100 and SBP policy rate. It is also confirmed by the results that disintermediation improves banks profitability and depositor protection, thus providing a good rationale and justification to banks for opting it. Originality/value The study focuses on the impact of structural changes in portfolios only of commercial banks’ revenue-generating assets not including other financial institutions as a part of banking system. Furthermore, data are extracted from balance sheets and is the sole property of corresponding author.

scholarly journals An empirical study of oil and gas value chain agility in the UAE

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (9) ◽  
pp. 3541-3569 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ala Shqairat ◽  
Balan Sundarakani
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Moderate Effect ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the agility of oil and gas value chains in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and to understand the impact of implementing supply disruption (SD) strategies, outsourcing strategies (OS) and management strategies (MS) on oil and gas value chain agility (VCA). The results can support the oil and gas industry across the UAE to build resilience in the value chain. Design/methodology/approach The research design consists of a comprehensive literature review, followed by questionnaire-based survey responses of 106 participants and comprehensive statistical analysis, thus validate the developed theoretical framework and contribute to both practical and methodological approaches. Findings The findings indicate that oil and gas value chain in the UAE has moderate a significant degree of SD, when OS in place that are synchronized with the overall MS. Among the hypotheses developed, two were accepted thus warranting both SD strategies (r=+0.432) and MS (r= +0.457) found to have a positive moderate effect on VCA. The third hypothesis was rejected by revealing OS (r=+0.387) found to have a positive moderate relationship with VCA. Therefore, implementation of all three strategies has a positive moderate effect on the agility of the value chain and, therefore, supports to sustain competitive position. Research limitations/implications Some of the limitations of this research include the geographic coverage of the study region and other methodological limitation. Practical implications The research provides guidance for oil and gas supply chain managers to better understand the critical factors that impact and determine VCA. The paper also describes relevant strategies that should be taken into consideration by these managers in order to build their agile value chains. Social implications The research contributes to the social dimensions of supply chain sustainability of how resilient is the oil and gas value chain during uncertain conditions, so that it can respond to uncertain changes in order to contribute to corporate social responsibility. Originality/value This research is the first of its kind in the UAE region to assess the link between dimensions of agile value chain, OS, SD strategies and MS primarily from the Emirates of Abu Dhabi and Dubai.

HR talent and the new HR competencies

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 217-222 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dave Ulrich ◽  
Jon Younger ◽  
Wayne Brockbank ◽  
Mike Ulrich
Keyword(s):  
Human Resources ◽  
Business Performance ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
University Of Michigan ◽  
Ongoing Research ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Competency Domains ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hr Competencies

PurposeThis article aims to describe partial results of the 2012 Global Human Resources Competency Study (HRCS), led by the RBL Group and the Ross School of Business, University of Michigan.Design/methodology/approachOver the past 25 years, this ongoing research project has provided the most global, comprehensive, and empirical identification of the competencies expected of HR professionals, and the impact of these competencies on both individual HR professional effectiveness and business performance.FindingsThis article points out a number of the key findings of the research – including the six fundamental competency domains that HR professionals must demonstrate to impact business performance – and identifies implications of the study findings for HR talent planning, assessment and development.Originality/valueHRCS findings have influenced thousands of HR departments, from global giants to smaller organizations in every continent.

Empirical evaluation of structure-conduct-performance paradigm as applied to the Iranian Islamic banking system

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahdi Ghaemi Asl ◽  
Muhammad Mahdi Rashidi ◽  
Alireza Ghorbani
Keyword(s):  
Market Structure ◽  
Market Share ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Empirical Evaluation ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Simple Regression Model ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the impact of market structure and market share on the performance of the Islamic banks operating in the Iranian banking system based on the structure-conduct-performance (SCP) paradigm. Design/methodology/approach The Iranian Islamic banking system’s market structure is evaluated by using the econometrics method to test the validity of the traditional SCP paradigm. For this purpose, the authors estimate a simple regression model that is consisted of several independent variables, such as the market share, bank size, real gross domestic product, liquidity and Herfindahl-Hirschman index as a proxy variable for concentration and one dependent variable, namely, the profit as a proxy for performance. The panel data includes a data sample of 22 Islamic banks operating from 2006 to 2019. Data are extracted from the balance sheet of Islamic banks and the time-series database of the Central Bank of Iran and World Bank. Findings The study’s findings indicate that both concentration and market share have a positive impact on the performance of banks in the Iranian Islamic banking system. This result is contradicted with both traditional SCP and efficient structure hypotheses; however, it confirms the existence of oligopoly or cartel in the Iranian Islamic banking system that few banks try to gain the highest share of profit and maintain their market share by colluding with each other. This result is in contradiction with other research studies about the market structure in the Iranian banking system that claimed that banks in Iran operate under monopolistic competition. In addition, it shows that the privatization of some banks in Iran does not improve and help competition in the Iranian banking system. Originality/value This paper is a pioneer empirical study analyzing the market structure, concentration and collusion based on the SCP paradigm in Iranian Islamic banking. The results of the study support the existence of collusive behavior among the Islamic bank in Iran that is not aligned with Sharia. This study clearly shows the difference between ideal Islamic banking and Islamic banking in practice in Islamic countries. This clearly indicates that only prohibiting some operations like receiving interest, gambling and bearing excessive risk is not enough. In fact, the Islamic banking system should be based on the Sharia rule in all aspects and much more modification and study have to be done to achieve an appropriate Islamic banking system. These possible modifications to overcome the issues of cartel-like market structure and collusive behavior in the Iranian Islamic banking system include making the Iranian banking system more transparent, letting foreign banks enter the Iranian banking system and minimizing the government intervention in the Iranian banking system.

Exploration of COVID-19 impact on the dimensions of food safety and security: a perspective of societal issues with relief measures

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Janpriy Sharma ◽  
Mohit Tyagi ◽  
Arvind Bhardwaj
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Food Safety ◽  
Agricultural Practices ◽  
Research Literature ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Food Industries ◽  
Societal Issues ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

PurposeOutbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has created the catastrophic situation, it has crippled all the economic activities and seized off the operations of food supply chain (FSC). Disrupted FSC escalated the societal concerns related to food safety and security. The purpose of this study is to consolidate various issues, exploring the perspectives associated with the agricultural practices, food industries and society concerns related with the FSC performance system dynamics amid of COVID-19 pandemic.Design/methodology/approachTo structure this work, a detailed research literature insight focussing on the key findings associated with the past disease outbreaks like influenza, avian flu, Ebola, bird flu, SARS, foot and mouth disease and ongoing phase of COVID-19, encompassing the perspective related with various agricultural and concerned supply chain practices is clustered. Furthermore, issues having relevancy with the notion of this work, sourced from platforms of print and electronic media have been incorporated to ground the reality associated with the impacts, for better visualisation of the perspectives.FindingsThis study outlays the key findings which are relevant with the past pandemic outbreaks from the core of the research literature. It details the impact of the current COVID-19 scenario on the various FSC operations, focussing on dimensions allied with the industry, economic and society concerns. For the same, to mitigate the effects, relief measures focussing on the short- and long-term perspectives have been incorporated. Steps ramped up by the Government of India (GOI) to safeguard masses from the threat of food security, accelerate pace of the FSC operations and upscale operating capacities of the industries and agriculture practices have incorporated.Research limitations/implicationsPresented work is persuaded amid of the COVID-19 lockdown restrictions hence it outlays the theoretical perspectives only. But, these perspectives portray the ongoing scenario's impacts, extending its implication to the people coming from the industry and academia background. This study can felicitate the government bodies to make them familiar with the various impacts which indented the FSCs, food industries and added woes to the society concerns.Originality/valueIndia is the second largest populated nation of the world, and outspread of the COVID-19 has capsized the FSCs and raised the various instances, making population vulnerable to the threats of food insecurity. This study encompasses effect of the FSC disruption by incorporating its effect on the food industries practices, societal issues and extending possible relief measures to restructure the FSC dynamics. As of now, study focussing on the Indian FSC concerns, detailing of impacts due to pandemic outbreak, relief measures to sail out of the hard times are not available.

Natural resource governance, accountability and legitimising propensity: insights from Ghana's oil and gas sector

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Asare ◽  
Bruce Burton ◽  
Theresa Dunne
Keyword(s):  
Natural Resource ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Resource Discovery ◽  
Legitimacy Theory ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Resource Governance ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study explores Ghanaian views about accountability discharge by firms and government in the context of the nation's newly discovered oil and gas resources. The research focusses on a range of issues relating to stakeholder interaction, communication flows and the impact of decision-making on Ghanaian lives, as perceived by individuals on the ground.Design/methodology/approachThe paper adapts elements of legitimacy theory to interpret the outcome of a series of semi-structured interviews with members of key accountee and accountor groups including citizens and representatives of the state and private firms in the oil and gas industry in Ghana.FindingsThe results indicate that rather than attempting to effect substantive accountability discharge, Ghana's government and oil and gas firms employ a wide range of legitimation strategies despite the apparently complete absence of the accountee power normally seen as driving the need for social contract repair.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings suggest that accountability discharge in Ghana is cursory at best, with several legitimising strategies in evidence. The representatives from state institutions appear to share some of the concerns, suggesting that the problems are entrenched and will require robust enforcement of a strengthened regulatory approach to effect meaningful change.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to the literature on the discharge of institutional accountability by building on earlier conceptualisations of legitimacy theory to explore perceptions around a recent natural resource discovery. The analysis highlights grave concerns regarding the behaviour of state and corporate actors, one that runs counter to sub-Saharan African tradition.

It's all in the past: how do colonial legacies between host and home countries affect the expatriate experience?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Richardson
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Values ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Research Field ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Colonial Legacy ◽  
The Past ◽  
Host Country Nationals ◽  
Practical Experiences ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact

PurposeWithin the expatriation subset of the wider IB literature, the focus of research has been on contemporary contextual factors. The purpose of this paper is to link the present to the past by investigating how the individual expatriate experience may be affected by a colonial legacy between host and home countries.Design/methodology/approachGiven the exploratory nature of this study, a qualitative interview-based approach eliciting thick, detailed descriptions of the practical experiences of seven Japanese expatriate managers working in Malaysia was adopted. These were supplemented by additional interviews with three host-country nationals who work alongside some of the expatriates. The data were analysed through a two-stage coding process.FindingsThe expatriate respondents were largely unanimous in their view that the colonial past between the two countries had no negative impact on their experiences in Malaysia, and the Malaysian interviewees corroborated this. On the contrary, the majority of the expatriates actually spoke positively about their experiences. This was especially true for expatriates in both the tourism and education/research field whose work was linked in some way to the period of Japanese occupation.Research limitations/implicationsThe small, single-context nature of the investigation limits generalisation. There are also many particularities in this study (the nature of Japanese-Malaysian postcolonial relations, cultural values of the Malaysians and Japanese, and so on) that are perhaps not easily relatable to other contexts. Having said this, qualitative research is not always geared towards generalisability but rather towards contextual intricacies and nuances.Originality/valueWhile most of the extant literature on expatriation has examined largely contemporary factors, this paper explores the impact of more historical events on the expatriate experience. Although such events may seem distant from an expatriate's current activities, this study suggests that in certain circumstances, they may have a lingering effect.

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