Guinea's junta will dominate the political transition

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West African ◽  
Political Transition ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Community ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Authoritarian Rule ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Constitutional Order ◽  
Election Victory

Significance Conde’s increasingly authoritarian rule had generated widespread resentment, particularly following his controversial third-term election victory in October 2020. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) condemned the coup and suspended Guinea’s membership until the return of “constitutional order” but did not call for Conde’s reinstatement. Impacts International fears over Guinea’s stability may hinder new investments in the country’s mining sector in the short and medium term. The junta will not interfere with existing mining concessions and contracts. ECOWAS’s soft acquiescence to the coup may encourage other regional coup attempts. The junta will likely invite members of the opposition to form a broad-based transitional government while it maintains overall control.

Economic Community of West African States, Regional security and the Implementation of Humanitarian Intervention and the Responsibility to Protect: Rhetoric or Reality?

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 162-183
Author(s):  
Peter Arthur
Keyword(s):  
Humanitarian Intervention ◽  
West African ◽  
Responsibility To Protect ◽  
Regional Security ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Community ◽  
Political Will ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Peace And Security ◽  
Conflicting Interests

The last 25 years have seen Economic Community of West African States, through the use of various norms, structures and protocols, make the promotion of security and the implementation of humanitarian intervention and the responsibility to protect (R2P) important aspects of the political landscape in the sub-region. The article argues that despite the great strides made by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in the implementation of R2P, there are not only challenges (inadequate funds available for peace and security missions, conflicting interests and lack of agreement, poor co-ordination, inadequate human and logistics capacity) with its application in the sub-region, but also concerns about its future. Thus, to promote security and realise the goals of implementing humanitarian intervention and R2P in the ECOWAS sub-region, not only should the actors involved have the requisite capacity but also political will and commitment, citizen awareness, and co-operation among ECOWAS member-states and with the international community should remain crucial to the process.

Election dispute belies Togo's deeper stability risks

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Child Mortality ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
West African ◽  
The Political ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Franc Zone ◽  
The Military ◽  
Democratic Norms

Subject The political outlook in Togo. Significance On April 28, the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) announced that President Faure Gnassingbe had won re-election in the presidential ballot held on April 25, with 58.75% of the vote. His controversial third term will extend his family's rule to nearly 50 years. Opposition candidate Jean-Pierre Fabre secured 34.95% of the vote. His Combat for Political Change (CAP) alliance rejects the result. Impacts Western donors' effectiveness at pushing for democratic norms will wane as Togo, like other African states, accesses new debt sources. Togo's membership of the West African CFA franc zone, which is backed by the French treasury, will ensure currency stability. A Burkina Faso-style ouster of Gnassingbe is unlikely, for now -- he enjoys the support of the military who first installed him. Despite being spared the Ebola crisis, standards of public health will remain poor, with child mortality rates far above global averages.

Prospects for Turkey in the second quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Political Crises ◽  
Wait And See ◽  
Election Victory ◽  
Legitimacy Crisis ◽  
Legislative Election

Subject Prospects for Turkey in the second quarter. Significance President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) have survived the political crises of the past year with little damage and, short of a substantial economic or legitimacy crisis, will likely score another legislative election victory on June 7. Businesses, the financial sector and households are all likely to remain in wait-and-see mode, and financial markets to be jittery.

Intervention in The Gambia may prove unique

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Intervention ◽  
West African ◽  
The Gambia ◽  
Truth Commission ◽  
Economic Community ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Assistance ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Security Guarantees

Significance For over a month, Jammeh rebuffed diplomatic efforts by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to accept Adama Barrow's victory in the December 1 presidential poll. An ECOWAS military intervention into The Gambia -- accompanied by last-minute diplomatic efforts and purported financial and security guarantees -- finally forced Jammeh to accept defeat. Impacts A truth commission offering amnesty for military officials and the outgoing government could prompt discord within the new ruling alliance. Military restructuring will be a priority for Barrow's government. International assistance will likely flow in support of the new president. The Gambia's tourism sector -- which makes up nearly 20% of the country's GDP -- will struggle to recover in the short-term. The ECOWAS intervention could prove unpopular among members' domestic constituencies if a lengthy, costly mission emerges.

Corruption may undermine Kenyan government credibility

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Civil Society ◽  
Political System ◽  
Zero Tolerance ◽  
The Political ◽  
Public Confidence ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Government Institutions

Significance Kenya has been rocked by a string of corruption scandals in government institutions over recent weeks. The episode has served as a powerful reminder to both ordinary Kenyans and foreign investors that public-sector corruption remains pervasive -- and that President Uhuru Kenyatta’s government has failed to make significant inroads on the issue despite its rhetorical claims of ‘zero tolerance’. Impacts The lack of progress in anti-corruption efforts will raise concern among donor countries. Along with other barriers, evidence of corruption will limit FDI and constrain GDP growth in the medium term. Failure to tackle graft will erode public confidence in the political system, leading to further civil society protests.

Algerian army will try to guard fiefdom in transition

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Military Leadership ◽  
The Political ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Constitutional Order ◽  
Formal Power ◽  
The Military

Significance The military leadership has seized control of the political process, but has shown little interest in assuming formal power, often demonstrating sympathies with protesters while preserving the constitutional order. Impacts The prime minister and interim president may be pushed to quit as a concession. Elections planned for July 4 may be postponed if unrest grows. The economy may suffer as tourism will decline and foreign investors will hesitate to become involved in an uncertain energy sector.

Guinea-Bissau elections may not end instability

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
West African ◽  
Economic Community ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Guinea Bissau ◽  
Presidential System ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Turmoil

Subject Outlook for presidential elections in Guinea-Bissau. Significance Controversial outgoing President Jose Mario Vaz is among twelve candidates vying for the presidency on November 24. While the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)-backed elections are set to go ahead as planned, fears linger that they will not end recurring political turmoil. Impacts If Pereira wins, he will likely try drafting a new constitution to give greater clarity to the current ambiguous semi-presidential system. Ongoing political instability will exacerbate border insecurity and long-standing narco-trafficking. A more active, internationally backed civil society will ensure added scrutiny of political parties and the government over the long term.

West African regional bloc faces harmonisation tests

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
West African ◽  
Economic Community ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type

Subject ECOWAS tests. Significance Recent elections across the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have been marred by violence and fraud allegations, and fresh constitutional crises abound. While trade harmonisation efforts are gaining traction, obstacles to implementation persist. Impacts The multiplicity of trade arrangements being negotiated by ECOWAS member states will likely slow the process of trade harmonisation. There will be heightened scrutiny of Senegal’s December local polls after recent electoral disputes and increasing centralisation of power. While most of Togo's opposition will participate in local polls this month, growing disunity could sidetrack its efforts to oust Gnassingbe.

Political Positions and Opposition in the Spanish Catholic Church

1976 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 198-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfred Fierro Bardaji
Keyword(s):  
Catholic Church ◽  
Political System ◽  
Political Transition ◽  
The Political ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
Near Future

THIS STUDY HAS BEEN WRITTEN DURING THE STAGE OF BROAD political transition inside the Spanish State, following the death of General Franco, in November 1975. The new monarch, Juan Carlos I, has already carried out some acts that will define Spanish politics in the near future, by confirming the men who governed during Franco's last years: but what attitude the political system will take under the monarchy is still unforeseeable; and, although everyone is waiting for a certain liberalization of the regime, the real scope that liberalization will have in the short and medium term remains problematical.

scholarly journals The Court of Justice of the Economic Community of West African States as a Constitutional Court

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kangnikoé Bado
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
West African ◽  
Legal Order ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
Economic Community ◽  
Constitutional Courts ◽  
Member States ◽  
Constitutional Order ◽  
Court Of Justice ◽  
Innovative Solutions

One of the major innovations made by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is the unequivocal granting of a supranational role to the Court of Justice of the organisation. However, its human rights mandate has led to real and potential tensions within the ECOWAS legal order. The tensions stem from the legal force of judgments of constitutional courts of member states and the admissibility of individual petitions before the Court. This work identifies some deficiencies in the current regime of the human rights mandate of the Court. Gaps exist at the level of the member states’ constitutional order, as well as at the community level. The supranational competence of the jurisdiction must be implemented by the possibility of ordering concrete measures to be taken by states for the reparation of human rights violations. Innovative solutions are suggested in this work in order to fill procedural and substantial gaps in the protection system established in West Africa.

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