Turkey’s defence spend will rise despite economic woes

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government ◽  
Positive Effect

Significance Official spending on defence and security for 2022 is up by about 22% year-on-year. This does not include extrabudgetary resources which are kept secret even from lawmakers. The lack of transparency and independent oversight leaves it unclear whether the government is spending wisely or efficiently. Impacts The aim of 100% self-sufficiency in critical defence technologies is far-fetched given existing dependence on imports and foreign licences. Erdogan could drag Turkey into war on its borders to deflect attention from his economic mismanagement. Buying Russian S-400 missiles will cost Turkey its share of revenue from the US-led F-35 project and access to new defence technologies. Arms embargoes have had a positive effect in pushing Turkey to produce some banned products formerly sourced from its allies.

Principal operators' farm risk attitudes in hot and cold climates

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Zia Wahdat ◽  
Michael Gunderson
Keyword(s):  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
Risk Attitudes ◽  
Ordered Logit ◽  
Climate Classification ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Hot Climate ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government

PurposeThe study investigates whether there is an association between climate types and farm risk attitudes of principal operators.Design/methodology/approachThe study exploits temperature variation in the diverse climate types across the US and defines hot- and cold-climate states. Ordered logit and generalized ordered logit models are used to model principal operators' farm risk attitudes, which are measured on a Likert scale. The study uses two datasets. The first dataset is a 2017 survey of US large commercial producers (LCPs). The second dataset provides a Köppen-Geiger climate classification of the US at a spatial resolution of 5 arcmin for a 25-year period (1986–2010).FindingsThe study finds that principal operators in hot-climate states are 4–5% more likely to have a higher willingness to take farm risk compared to principal operators in cold-climate states.Research limitations/implicationsIt is likely that farm risk mitigation decisions differ between hot- and cold-climate states. For instance, the authors show that corn acres' enrollment in federal crop insurance and computers' usage for farm business are pursued more intensely in cold-climate states than in hot-climate states. A differentiation of farm risk attitude by hot- and cold-climate states may help agribusiness, the government and economists in their farm product offerings, farm risk management programs and agricultural finance models, respectively.Originality/valueBased on Köppen-Geiger climate classification, the study introduces hot- and cold-climate concepts to understand the relationship between climate types and principal operators' farm risk attitudes.

Puerto Rican shutdown would increase default fears

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Puerto Rican ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Congress ◽  
Federal Intervention ◽  
Congressional Vote ◽  
General Obligation Bonds ◽  
General Obligation ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government

Significance Puerto Rico is facing a severe fiscal crunch; its general obligation bonds are rated junk status and the government has said that a 2.9 billion dollar bond issuance -- at risk because of the congressional vote -- is required to prevent a shutdown in the next three months. Impacts There is little-to-no prospect of Puerto Rican statehood while Republicans control the US Congress. Puerto Rico would gain five representatives and two senators, likely to vote Democratic. However, this may encourage some Republicans to back federal intervention on debt, to ward off calls for statehood.

Nigerian government's self-sufficiency goals will lag

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Small Scale ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Farming Practices ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Core Inflation ◽  
Parboiled Rice ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
Grey Market ◽  
The Government

Subject Nigerian self-sufficiency push. Significance The government has renewed efforts to prioritise food self-sufficiency and modernise farming practices. However, despite the impetus to drive sector growth and diversify away from oil, necessary wider structural reforms have stalled. Impacts Big-ticket programmes will attract most international focus despite the investment potential in Nigeria's mainly small-scale holdings. Growth in agricultural output will remain low in the medium term as inefficiencies persist and core inflation remains elevated. The government’s import ban may aid domestic production targets but will further encourage a flourishing ‘grey market’ (eg, parboiled rice).

Egypt will increase gas production to raise investment

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Beneficial Effect ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
Exploration And Production ◽  
Fixed Prices ◽  
The Government ◽  
Upstream Investment

Significance The government wants to maintain upstream investment momentum following recent successes in increasing gas production to regain self-sufficiency and restart exports. Impacts Increased investment in exploration and production should bolster confidence in Egypt’s ability to honour its export commitments. New contracts would allow companies to sell their share of production, without being obliged to sell to the government at fixed prices. Gas exports will not generate huge revenues, but self-sufficiency will have a beneficial effect on the balance of payments.

Iraq sees rising risk of a US-Iran clash in 2020

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Action ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government ◽  
Warning Services

Significance These have caused the United States to begin the process of shuttering its Baghdad embassy -- while signalling that it could reverse the process if the government moves more aggressively against pro-Iran groups within the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) that are blamed for the strikes. Impacts Groups will step up attacks designed to lever the US-led coalition out of Iraq, while seeking to mask their identity. The United States will have greater latitude for military action to weaken Tehran in November or December, if it closes the embassy. Japanese, Saudi, Emirati and some European embassies relying on US evacuation and warning services might also be forced out. Washington might opt instead to downsize the embassy, which cannot operate normally due to COVID-19 and security threats. Even if the US embassy closed, some coalition military sites and the US consulate in the Kurdistan region would remain open.

Nicaragua pandemic downplaying is a political gamble

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Social Impacts ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trade And Investment ◽  
Economic And Social Impacts ◽  
Opposition Parties

Significance Some initiatives have been introduced to help counter the economic and social impacts of the pandemic, but the government’s actions appear to be driven less by the need to address the health crisis than by a desire to shore up political support ahead of elections next year. Impacts Opposition parties are beginning to forge electoral alliances in the hope of benefitting from popular frustration with the government. Trade and investment into Nicaragua will remain minimal, with external firms wary about the potential prevalence of COVID-19. The outcome of the US presidential elections in November will affect the potential for US aid and investment.

Sudan's economic reform will prove challenging

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Foreign Investment ◽  
International Aid ◽  
Economic Hardship ◽  
Debt Relief ◽  
Major Focus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Government Corruption ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government

Significance Bringing tangible improvements to the economy will be a major challenge for Sudan’s new transitional government. Economic hardship and anger over perceived government corruption were recurring causes of protests over recent years and could be again. Impacts The government will publicise its efforts to stabilise prices, although actually achieving this may prove elusive. Efforts to secure removal from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism will be a major focus, but this process will take time. Delisting would be welcomed by businesses and investors, and would boost debt relief prospects, but will not resolve underlying challenges. Significant new foreign investment will depend on the government’s performance, but fresh injections of international aid can be expected.

scholarly journals Uncertainty and nonlinear macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the US: a SEIVAR-based analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ansgar Belke ◽  
Pascal Goemans
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Uncertainty Distribution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽  
The Us ◽  
Macroeconomic Effects ◽  
The Government

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks vary with the degree of macroeconomic uncertainty.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use quarterly US data from 1960 to 2017 and employ the Self-Exciting Interacted VAR (SEIVAR) to compute nonlinear generalized impulse response functions (GIRFs) to an orthogonalized government spending shock during tranquil and in uncertain times. The parsimonious design of the SEIVAR enables us to focus on extreme deciles of the uncertainty distribution and to control for the financing side of the government budget, monetary policy, financial frictions and consumer confidence.FindingsFiscal spending has positive output effects in tranquil times, but is contractionary during times of heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. The results indicate an important role of the endogenous response of macroeconomic uncertainty. Investigating different government spending purposes, only increases in research and development expenditures reduce uncertainty and boost output during uncertain times.Originality/valueThe authors contribute to the literature in using a method which allows to control for a large set of confounding factors and accounts for the uncertainty response.

Khartoum will resist committing to power sharing

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
South Sudan ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
The West ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rebel Groups ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Government ◽  
South Kordofan

Significance Since South Sudan seceded in 2011, Khartoum has confronted conflict on three fronts. Armed conflict escalated in Blue Nile and South Kordofan in mid-2011, while clashes between pro- and anti-government forces and outbreaks of inter-communal fighting have plagued Darfur and West Kordofan. Impacts Ongoing conflict will dash hopes of Sudan's removal from the US State Sponsors of Terrorism list. Reports about fighting and atrocities in areas to which the government restricts access will further strain relations with the West. Khartoum will continue to pressure Juba against providing support to any rebel groups in Sudan. The government will step up its call that AU-UN peacekeepers withdraw from Darfur.

Russian metal exports adjust to tariffs and sanctions

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Environmental Cost ◽  
Domestic Consumption ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ferrous Metals ◽  
The Us ◽  
Single Industry ◽  
Non Ferrous Metals ◽  
The Government

Subject Russia's metals sector and its prospects. Significance Russia's metals sector is second in importance only to oil and gas. Steel is much more important in volume and value terms than non-ferrous metals, including sanctions-hit aluminium. Overcapacity in the sector means that investment is likely to be restricted to capacity maintenance and some new projects offering high value-added opportunities. Rusal, the largest Russian aluminium producer, has until November 12 to extricate itself from the US sanctions list, otherwise its domestic production will be hard hit, even though the government will try to increase domestic consumption of the metal. Impacts Volatility in the metals sector poses risks to employment and incomes in 84 of Russia's 319 single-industry towns ('monograds'). Taking aluminium processing to a higher stage in Russia will boost revenues at less environmental cost than that incurred at earlier stages. A dearth of expert personnel acting as 'innovation advocates' is hampering broader industrial application of aluminium-based technologies.

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