Egypt will increase gas production to raise investment

Significance The government wants to maintain upstream investment momentum following recent successes in increasing gas production to regain self-sufficiency and restart exports. Impacts Increased investment in exploration and production should bolster confidence in Egypt’s ability to honour its export commitments. New contracts would allow companies to sell their share of production, without being obliged to sell to the government at fixed prices. Gas exports will not generate huge revenues, but self-sufficiency will have a beneficial effect on the balance of payments.

Subject Gas sector update. Significance Despite sharp reductions in oil companies' global exploration and production, Egypt is attracting multi-billion-dollar fast-track upstream oil and gas investment. Cairo has already made progress in addressing key imbalances in its energy sector, and succeeded in reducing arrears to oil companies. Boosting upstream oil and gas production will eventually help stabilise the budget. Impacts Egypt's gas balance could turn positive by 2020, reducing the country's demand for LNG and oil product imports. Incentives for renewables, particularly solar power, are a likely path for diversifying the energy mix and stemming domestic gas demand. The government is likely to remain committed to generous PSAs. It will also probably advance domestic gas pricing reform to maintain the upstream sector's current momentum.


2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 12
Author(s):  
Mohammad Hidayaturrahman

Government policies in natural resource management, especially in the oil and gas sector face a lot of problems. However, the government also has a responsibility to improve the life of people affected from oil and gas exploration and production activities. This research was aimed at investigating how the implementation of policies run by the central and local government toward the oil and gas management and community empowerment, especially the community located closely  to oil and gas exploration and production activity in Madura, East Java. This research method is phenomenological research using descriptive qualitative approach. Therefore, this study is conducted through direct observation on the object during the research time. The data collection is done through observation and interview. The results of this study revealed that it is needed an integrated step done by the government, vertically, whether central, provincial, district, and village to synchronize oil and gas management and community empowerment programs. By doing so, the ideas and desires to improve the welfare and increase the state income will be realized, especially in focusing corporate and government programs improving citizen’ economic and education, whose area becomes the location of oil and gas production.


Subject Nigerian self-sufficiency push. Significance The government has renewed efforts to prioritise food self-sufficiency and modernise farming practices. However, despite the impetus to drive sector growth and diversify away from oil, necessary wider structural reforms have stalled. Impacts Big-ticket programmes will attract most international focus despite the investment potential in Nigeria's mainly small-scale holdings. Growth in agricultural output will remain low in the medium term as inefficiencies persist and core inflation remains elevated. The government’s import ban may aid domestic production targets but will further encourage a flourishing ‘grey market’ (eg, parboiled rice).


Subject Trinidad and Tobago's economic outlook. Significance After several years of contraction, the Trinidad and Tobago economy is now showing signs of recovery, based on rising natural gas production and an uptick in oil prices. In addition, the government has instituted policy reforms to better control public finances. Efforts are also being made to increase economic cooperation with other countries, but this has been complicated by a mixed picture in terms of foreign relations. Impacts Concerns over Islamist activities and a rise in suspected terrorism financing may mar the economic outlook. Efforts to build new international partnerships may see a rise in some business and infrastructure sectors. Rising gas production and oil prices will boost the hydrocarbons sector.


Significance Its fairness has been challenged by the opposition and international observers. Erdogan is nevertheless pressing ahead with consolidating his authority; in the coming months he will shake up Turkey's administrative system. Impacts Erdogan will remain firmly in control inside Turkey and the opposition will be further marginalised. Business confidence in Istanbul will remain low. The government will seek foreign investors in such sectors as mining to help ease balance of payments difficulties.


Significance Guyana, hitherto a non-oil producing state, will produce growing volumes of crude oil. This will bring a range of consequences, potentially both positive and negative. It will see Guyana's GDP per capita soar, its balance of payments improve and the government’s income grow. However, it will also face so-called ‘resource curse’ risks, including economic distortions, corruption, wasteful government spending, ’Dutch disease’ and potentially even geopolitical complications. Impacts The government will struggle to manage expectations and use an unprecedented inflow of revenues to best advantage. Guyana’s new-found wealth could inflame tensions with neighbouring Venezuela, which claims much of its territory. There is a low but potentially high-impact risk that serious confrontation with Venezuela could bring in other players.


Subject The outlook for the oil sector. Significance While Ecuador is the smallest member of OPEC, oil is its largest export and the government's primary source of revenue. The collapse of world oil prices has forced the government to introduce import controls to support the balance of payments and cut public spending to reduce the budget deficit. However, rising levels of oil production have softened the blow of falling oil prices. The government hopes to continue this trend by attracting new investment into the oil sector, despite the downturn in the world market. Impacts The perilous state of the balance of payments and public finances will increase the need to attract new foreign investment into oil. Chinese oil companies are likely to increase their presence in Ecuador, reflecting trends elsewhere in Latin America. Development of the oil fields previously integrated into Yasuni/ITT should increase total oil output significantly from 2018-19.


Significance The country's energy outlook has been transformed by the discovery of a huge natural gas field in Eni's Shorouk concession along Egypt's maritime border with Cyprus, announced by the Italian oil major on August 30. If Eni's estimates are accurate, the field will increase Egypt's gas reserves by almost half and mean Egypt can regain natural gas self-sufficiency in the 2020s. Impacts The economic impact will depend on the progress of energy reforms, including subsidy cuts and structural changes to the electricity sector. The gas discovery will make Egyptian companies drive a harder bargain in negotiations with firms seeking to export Israeli gas. The find should generate savings on fuel imports, boosting both Egypt's balance of payments and energy-intensive industries. It will encourage power sector investors by guaranteeing the availability of enough natural gas to fuel their new plants.


Subject Egypt's social protection programmes. Significance A sizeable proportion of the population has been hit by the November 2016 currency devaluation, intended to quell distortions in the foreign currency market, in which the Egyptian pound lost more than half of its value. Living standards were hit hard, both by the effects of the 50% devaluation and by successive hikes in fixed prices for subsidised fuel and electricity. Inflation averaged 30% during 2017 and has only come down marginally to about 18% on average in the first eight months of 2018. The government has expanded its social protection system in the face of these pressures. Impacts The demand for protein-rich food will increase as cash transfers boost income. The cash provision is likely to lead to more overcrowding in schools in poor areas. The government will seek a political dividend from new social programmes as it tries to bolster its legitimacy.


Significance The Zohr field is one of the largest gas fields discovered in Egyptian waters. The launch of production heralds a major new supply of gas for the country as it faces a sharp decline in most of its existing gas fields. Impacts State-owned EGAS will buy Zohr-produced gas, adding to pressure on the government’s outstanding debts to international operators. The discovery of Zohr and its rapid development will increase interest in upstream opportunities from international oil and gas companies. The start of Zohr gas production will put on hold any consideration by the Egyptian government of gas imports from Israel and Cyprus.


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