Nigeria's north-east military strategy is failing

Significance This marks the highest-ranking combat casualty suffered by the Nigerian army to date and is part of a series of recent ISWAP attacks as the group transitions into another fighting season following the end of the rainy season. Impacts The military will soon look to launch another major operation into ISWAP-held territory. Absent more robust and flexible ground capabilities, newly delivered A-29 Super Tucano aircraft will have limited effect against ISWAP. Humanitarian services will be confronted by increasing risks.

Significance The attacks come on the back of a general uptick in violence by the terrorist group both in north-east Nigeria and across its borders. The renewed violence suggests that even in its current degraded and divided state, Boko Haram’s various factions retain the capacity to hurt civilians and security personnel in north-eastern Nigeria and disrupt crucial humanitarian efforts. Impacts Renewed violence in north-eastern Nigeria will hamper the delivery of vital humanitarian assistance and government resettlement efforts. Despite current divisions, growing military successes by Boko Haram’s competing factions could potentially facilitate closer coordination. Growing terror attacks could reduce the impetus for the military to address human rights concerns or decommission local vigilante groups.


Significance Delivery of relief to 8.5 million people in north-eastern Nigeria is complicated by persistent insecurity due to the Boko Haram insurgency, the dependency of the aid community on military cooperation for access, alleged corruption and mismanagement by government agents and contractors, an uncertain domestic political situation and ambiguity about mid-term funding from international sources. These challenges have led to an enduring humanitarian disaster and the possibility of reversals on the regional security front. Impacts Political uncertainty due to President Muhammadu Buhari’s poor health will hamper national efforts on the humanitarian front. An unimproved humanitarian situation will complicate the military’s counter-insurgency campaign, and harm long-term security efforts. Ongoing corruption revelations, particularly within the military, could undermine security sector and federal executive relations. Renewed Niger Delta militancy and pro-Biafra separatism could distract the federal government's attention from the north-east.


Significance Even if firmer evidence emerges, few recorded attacks are likely to be attributable to Russian payments. The main thrust of Russian policy has now shifted from helping the Taliban to supporting US efforts to withdraw from Afghanistan. Impacts The story may have the limited effect of making Russia communicate its aims on Afghanistan more clearly. The claims will remain a US campaign issue as they touch on Trump's judgement, care for the military and willingness to confront Russia. True or not, the claims will reinforce Moscow's reputation as a ruthless and determined player.


Significance The growing attacks on aid workers undermines repeatedly touted victories by Abuja, and military chiefs who have imposed a new unrealistic December deadline to end the insurgency. Impacts The stigma attached to COVID-19 positive patients could leave aid workers vulnerable if they are portrayed as importers of the virus. The limiting of programmes will have a major impact on displaced persons in isolated communities and may cause tensions with aid groups. Supposed increases in insurgent activity during the rainy season do not appear to be borne out by available data.


Significance These will be the third polls under President Abdelmadjid Tebboune. As for the two previous votes -- the November 2020 constitutional referendum and the June 2021 legislative election -- participation in the local elections is likely to be poor. Such low voter turnout is progressively eroding the government’s legitimacy. Impacts The military leadership may blame Tebboune for overseeing three failed elections and could further marginalise him from decision-making. Tebboune will remain president, but he and his cabinet may increasingly be managed by the Ministry of Defence. Khaled Nezzar, the architect of the 1991 coup, has been rehabilitated, which appears to be influencing military strategy.


2019 ◽  
Vol 75 (5) ◽  
pp. 1082-1099 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rita Marcella ◽  
Graeme Baxter ◽  
Agnieszka Walicka

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present the results of a study that explored human behaviour in response to political “facts” presented online by political parties in Scotland. Design/methodology/approach The study consisted of interactive online interviews with 23 citizens in North-East Scotland, in the run-up to the 2017 UK General Election. Findings Participants demonstrated cognitive and critical responses to facts but little affective reaction. They judged facts swiftly and largely intuitively, providing evidence that facts are frequently consumed, accepted or rejected without further verification processes. Users demonstrated varying levels of engagement with the information they consume, and subject knowledge may influence the extent to which respondents trust facts, in previously unanticipated ways. Users tended to notice facts with which they disagreed and, in terms of prominence, particularly noted and responded to facts which painted extremely negative or positive pictures. Most acknowledged limitations in capacity to interrogate facts, but some were delusionally confident. Originality/value Relatively little empirical research has been conducted exploring the perceived credibility of political or government information online. It is believed that this and a companion study are the first to have specifically investigated the Scottish political arena. This paper presents a new, exploratory fact interrogation model, alongside an expanded information quality awareness model.


Significance The situation has highlighted several issues of concern around the influence of the Mexican military, the government’s reliance on it and the challenges Mexico and its security agencies face in trying to meet US demands while addressing domestic threats. Impacts Mexican militarisation was facilitated by Trump administration apathy on human rights; this will change under President Joe Biden. Increased US-bound migration, encouraged by Biden’s more humane rhetoric, will heighten the need for bilateral security cooperation. Future Mexican administrations will struggle to reverse the political influence the military has obtained.


2021 ◽  
pp. e001696
Author(s):  
Chris M A Kwaja ◽  
D J Olivieri ◽  
S Boland ◽  
P C Henwood ◽  
B Card ◽  
...  

IntroductionCivilian–military relations play an important yet under-researched role in low-income and middle-income country epidemic response. One crucial component of civilian–military relations is defining the role of the military. This paper evaluates the role of Nigerian military during the 2014–2016 West African Ebola epidemic.MethodsFocus groups and key informant interviews were conducted throughout three states in North East region of Nigeria: Borno, Yobe and Adamawa. Participants were identified through mapping of stakeholder involvement in Nigerian epidemic response. English-translated transcripts of each key informant interview and focus group discussion were then coded and key themes were elucidated and analysed.ResultsMajor themes elucidated include developing inclusive coordination plans between civilian and military entities, facilitating human rights reporting mechanisms and distributing military resources more equitably across geographical catchment areas. The Nigerian Military served numerous functions: 37% (22/59) of respondents indicated ‘security/peace’ as the military’s primary function, while 42% (25/59) cited health services. Variations across geographic settings were also noted: 35% (7/20) of participants in Borno stated the military primarily provided transportation, while 73% (11/15) in Adamawa and 29% (7/24) in Yobe listed health services.ConclusionsRobust civilian–military relations require an appropriately defined role of the military and clear civilian–military communication. Important considerations to contextualise civilian–military relations include military cultural–linguistic understanding, human rights promotion, and community-based needs assessments; such foci can facilitate the military’s understanding of community norms and civilian cooperation with military aims. In turn, more robust civilian–military relations can promote overall epidemic response and reduce the global burden of disease.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeyapriya Foster

<p><b>M.I.A, born Mathangi Arulpragasam, is a British Sri Lankan Tamil artist-activist whose acronymised stage persona refers to the military term Missing in Action. Set against hegemonic readings which privilege postcolonial, feminist, or transnational categories of analyses, my original contribution to knowledge is to locate M.I.A’s work in the political contexts in which they are produced. I thereby foreground the hidden Tamil erasures of the Sri Lankan civil war (1983-2009) that traverse the artist’s productions. The historicisation of M.I.A’s politics of haunting is not only a research gap, but central in understanding the artist’s texts. Using hauntology as a framework and close textual analysis as a method, this thesis constitutes a Tamil-centric reading of M.I.A’s work as well as a nuanced contribution to hauntology studies. </b></p><p>My study identifies the Tamil cemeteries evoked in four songs—“Galang” (2003), “Bucky Done Gun” (2004), “Born Free” (2010), and “Borders” (2015)—inquiring into their visual translations, functions, objectives, and larger political significance. I particularly focus on their visual language that emerge from the collective absence-presences of the war, shared by the Tamil diaspora, of which the artist and I are part. My analyses also extend to probing salient aspects of the lyrics, performance, sound- and sartorial politics. </p><p>My textual analyses render the following findings: M.I.A’s productions recirculate histories of Tamil erasure as sites of death. They replicate and extend the funerary work of the cemeteries of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)—a Sri Lankan Tamil nationalist, separatist, and militant organisation that fought for an independent state in the north and north east of Sri Lanka. The artist recartographises Tamil cemeteries into ubiquitous popcultural expressions, in which the aesthetic techniques—animated stencils, flags, murals, photo montages, and performative bodies—visibilise and physicalise the materiality of violence enacted upon Tamils. M.I.A’s topographies of death rematerialise the architecture of cemeteries as inconspicuous yet omnipresent sites of absence, marking a simultaneous obscuration and ubiquitisation of cemeterial landscapes. These memory locales tend to Tamil graves, expose Tamil truth claims, and let the dead speak with and through the depiction of their brutalised bodies. Urging a responsibility for the (living) dead, they challenge the state’s control over ontology and visibility that renders Tamil lives unlivable and absent.</p>


2021 ◽  
pp. 120-126
Author(s):  
Mykhailo Tsiurupa

The time limits of the life of one generation are about 25-30 years, so lived in the struggle for building its own state and its armed defence, this time for Ukraine goes down in the history of the first generation of creation and attempts to comply with four military doctrines (1993-2004-2012-2015), in which our own defence course was proclaimed. The theoretical basis of these official documents of significance were certain paradigms of military-political thinking, according to which Ukraine did not consider it a continuation of politics. The direction and principles of military policy (defence or security policy in European terminology) for modern Ukraine from the mid-20s of the XIX century, as well as 100 years ago, again came to the fore in connection with the implementation of previously abstract concepts " annexation "," occupation "," war ", which allegedly did not exist for our country in recent history. But today they have been embodied or, in the image of Franz Kafka, "reincarnated" into threatening forms of Russia's military practice against our state, the end of which is not yet visible in the near future. The military-theoretical and political response was the "Military Strategy of Ukraine" in 2021, which "opened" a new generation of paradigms of militarypolitical thinking. The main thesis is the belief that the protection of sovereignty and strengthening of military security is the military-theoretical and political response was the "Military Strategy of Ukraine" in 2021, which "opened" a new generation of paradigms of military-political thinking. The main thesis is the belief that the protection of sovereignty and strengthening of military security is the creation of a "comprehensive defence system" with the integration of all forces of the state and civil society, law enforcement agencies and volunteers, administrative regions and territorial communities. The military-theoretical and political response was the "Military Strategy of Ukraine" in 2021, which "opened" a new generation of paradigms of military-political thinking. We will prove that this is a philosophy of military security instead of the previously expressed doctrinal military-political ideas of entrusting a matter of national importance to the forces of the defence sector. The new generation of public life Ukraine will begin with a new paradigm of militarypolitical thinking, the central idea of which is the transition from hopes for the political levers of defence for international cooperation to the creation of a system of comprehensive national security with the synergistic potential of Ukrainianity.


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