Presidential pardons anticipate South Korea's election

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Role ◽  
Voter Opinion

Significance A former prime minister was also pardoned, while an ex-lawmaker convicted of plotting a pro-Pyongyang rebellion was paroled. Impacts Prudence and ill-health are likely to prevent Park from playing any direct political role in future. In Seoul's vengeful politics, pardoning Park is also a bid by Moon to protect himself from potential persecution when he steps down. Conservative presidential candidate Yoon Seok-youl has lost his former lead, but voter opinion is volatile; there is still time to recover.

Uganda president co-opts to dilute Mbabazi threat

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Civil Conflict ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Regional Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
General Elections

Subject Election outlook in Uganda. Significance President Yoweri Museveni is confirmed as the National Resistance Movement's (NRM) official presidential candidate for February 2016 general elections. His most threatening challenger is former Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi, whose defection is the most significant in a decade. However, in the wake of the NRM party primaries and delegates conference, Museveni has shown his ability to consolidate support among the political elite. Impacts Uganda's elections will distract focus from its official mediation role in Burundi's deteriorating security crisis. However, Museveni may also guard Uganda's position as the regional mediator for fear of losing influence. Burundi is at high risk of civil conflict, with repercussions for regional stability ahead of Uganda's elections.

US-Thai military and trade links could cool

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Political Role ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Military

Subject US-Thailand relations. Significance The US Pacific Command's participation in the successful international collaboration to rescue 13 people from a cave in Thailand on July 10 was viewed on both sides as an affirmation of the US-Thailand alliance, and as a further boost to a new momentum in the broader bilateral relationship following a sharp slowdown after Thailand’s 2014 military coup. Improvement in relations is due partly to the reluctance of President Donald Trump's administration to emphasise democracy and human rights in foreign policy and more specifically to Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha’s visit to the White House last October. Impacts Warmer ties will not necessarily translate to increased US investment in Thailand. Thailand will need to look further afield for private investment in its Eastern Economic Corridor. If a China-US trade war occurs, Bangkok would try to avoid choosing sides but could ultimately pick Washington. The Trump administration’s push to reduce the US trade deficit with Thailand could cause frictions absent a quick deal. Thailand’s new constitution gives the military a lasting political role; US-Thai military links could therefore later help ties.

Ivory Coast’s Gon Coulibaly likely to triumph in polls

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Cost Of Living ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Arrest Warrant ◽  
Economic Boom ◽  
Opposition Parties

Subject Profile of Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly. Significance Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly was nominated on March 12 as the presidential candidate for the ruling Rally of Houphouetists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP) to succeed incumbent President Alassane Ouattara. Gon Coulibaly was nominated without any contest, which prompted protests from some senior RHDP members. With populist contender Guillaume Soro subject to an international arrest warrant and in self-imposed exile, and the main opposition parties yet to confirm an individual or joint candidate, the election appears Gon Coulibaly’s to lose. Impacts The elections could potentially be postponed if the COVID-19 outbreak becomes particularly severe. Ouattara will likely remain an influential figure during a Gon Coulibaly presidency, which could prove a double-edged sword for the latter. An economic boom has not trickled down to ordinary workers, making renewed public-sector strikes and cost of living protests likely. Defence Minister Hamed Bakayoko will likely help Gon Coulibaly keep the key military constituency on side ahead of the elections.

Malaysia's 1MDB case will see global scrutiny

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Role ◽  
Chief Minister

Significance The PAC will compile its report, while the Auditor General's office, which has also been investigating, will make its report available later in February. Months of controversy over the 1MDB matter are damaging domestic and international perceptions of Prime Minister Najib Razak's government. Impacts The opposition's fragmentation will limit the advantage it can take of 1MDB politically. The Kedah chief minister crisis will add to Malaysian sultans' growing political role. International 1MDB investigations could cause diplomatic frictions between Malaysia and other countries.

Malian premier’s peace push may falter after elections

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Burkina Faso ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Central Regions ◽  
Frontier Region

Subject Developments ahead of the presidential elections. Significance Prime Minister Soumeylou Boubeye Maiga on March 26 completed a tour of the insecure northern and central regions. President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita has been accused of sluggishness in pushing the peace process in the north forward, but Maiga -- appointed in December -- has injected fresh momentum into the government’s approach. Keita is likely to stand for a second term in presidential elections scheduled in July. Impacts Restoring security in central Mali will be difficult, after years of violence that has fuelled inter-communal mistrust and resentments. The ADEMA party has yet to choose a presidential candidate -- if any -- and it is unclear whether it will support Keita in the elections. The G5 Sahel force should lead to a more focused military effort in the frontier region between Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso.

Canada-US ties will see fewer irritants under Biden

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Federal Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Peacekeeping ◽  
Keystone Xl ◽  
Keystone Xl Pipeline

Significance Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is preparing to welcome a more predictable and stable partner in Biden than outgoing Republican President Donald Trump. However, Biden is also expected quickly to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline, cutting another lifeline to Canada’s oil industry and creating some strain in Canada-US ties. Impacts Improved Canada-US ties will persist even if Trudeau loses the next federal election to Conservative Erin O’Toole. Canada will re-engage militarily with UN peacekeeping and NATO deployments. Trudeau will encourage Biden to end US prosecution of Meng Wanzhou, allowing Canada to release her; Biden may agree. Canada’s border with the United States will open in stages as COVID-19 recedes. Ottawa will push Biden to end ‘Buy American’ procurement policies, with little success.

Neither side is ready to step back in Georgian crisis

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
National Movement ◽  
Election Victory ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The authorities went ahead with the arrest of Nika Melia, leader of the opposition United National Movement (UNM), on February 23 even after the prime minister resigned in protest. Georgian Dream's actions have caused concern in Western capitals that approved its election victory when the opposition cried foul. Impacts The crisis is a setback for the government's stated plan to apply for EU membership in 2024. There is growing talk in the United States about individual sanctions targeting Ivanishvili and his associates. Political turmoil will harm hopes of foreign direct investment and the imminent Anaklia port tender.

UK prime minister will likely remain in power for now

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Conservative Party ◽  
Culture Wars ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
The Eu

Significance As many as a dozen lockdown parties are now alleged to have been held at Downing Street, significantly damaging Johnson’s support among the public and his Conservative Party. His position as party leader and prime minister is gravely threatened. Impacts Johnson’s domestic troubles, coupled with rising economic concerns, increase the chance of an agreement with the EU over Northern Ireland. Disillusionment with Johnson, opposition to net-zero and culture wars open the door for Nigel Farage’s Reform Party to revive its appeal. Rising inflation threatens to undermine consumer confidence and slow the economic recovery over the coming year.

Assassination threatens to destabilise Haiti further

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Security Council ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The State ◽  
Gang Violence ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
Political Turmoil

Significance The assassination follows months of political turmoil and rising gang violence and comes just weeks before elections, scheduled for September 26. Interim Prime Minister Claude Joseph, who has taken charge of the country, said yesterday that measures were being taken “to guarantee the continuity of the state and to protect the nation". Impacts Further political assassinations would exacerbate unrest. The Dominican Republic has closed its border, fearing a migrant surge; the situation will bolster public support there for a border wall. The UN Security Council meets today and may authorise emergency action in Haiti; any substantial redeployment, however, would take time.

PM's death will prompt new Ivorian succession struggle

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Legislative Election ◽  
Economic Inequalities

Significance His death was announced a day after the March 6 legislative election results showed the ruling Rally of Houphouetists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP) secured 137 out of 254 contested seats. Bakayoko’s death has opened up a race to succeed President Alassane Ouattara at the end of his third and final term in 2025. Impacts Ouattara will likely hand-pick his successor again and seek to spearhead the RHDP’s 2025 campaign. An emboldened opposition will seek to exploit the government’s failure to stem widening economic inequalities. A new prime minister will struggle to create jobs and alleviate poverty to stem public anger and boost his popularity.

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