Pre-election jostling could affect Libyan oil exports

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Exports

Headline LIBYA: Pre-election jostling could affect oil exports

Iran can quickly hike oil exports as politics allow

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Market Share ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Comprehensive Plan ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Slow Progress

Significance Tehran’s more sophisticated sanctions avoidance tactics and greater willingness to test Washington’s enforcement have substantially boosted exports from 2019 lows. The slow progress on a US-Iranian mutual return to compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), has increased market uncertainty. Impacts Before sanctions lifting, limited waivers might add a few hundred thousand b/d of exports to US allies such as India, Japan and South Korea. New foreign oil investment will depend on views of Tehran’s domestic politics after June polls and the durability of a deal with Washington. Post-sanctions, Iran’s efforts to regain market share will create tensions with OPEC+ partners in quota negotiations.

Kazakhstan curbs oil output but eyes future growth

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Total Output ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Instability ◽  
Public Investments ◽  
Market Impacts ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector ◽  
Future Growth

Significance The oil sector's contribution to GDP fell last year, but this was due only to the market impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Kazakhstan continues to depend heavily on oil exports for tax revenue and consequently for recurrent government spending and large public investments. Impacts Rising production at the Tengiz, Karachaganak and Kashagan fields will increase their share of total output from 63% in 2020 to 72% in 2025. The continued concentration of foreign investment in the oil and gas sector will thwart attempts at economic diversification. Slowing production at old deposits in western and southern Kazakhstan is fraught with risks of social instability and unrest.

Legacy issues constrain Sudan's economic recovery

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
South Sudanese ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Fiscal Revenue

Significance Khartoum has benefited from a fixed per-barrel transit fee given falling oil prices, but the Sudanese economy has yet to recover from the shock caused by South Sudan's secession in 2011. According to the IMF's latest review, Sudan at that point lost three quarters of its oil production, one-half of its fiscal revenue and two-thirds of its international payments capacity. While the economy has begun to stabilise, recovery is fragile. Impacts Khartoum benefits from the delay to transit fee renegotiation, but talks are likely to begin soon. This may provoke renewed confrontations over other issues, such as the border and claims about rebel support. However, a renewed suspension of South Sudanese oil exports would hurt Juba more than Khartoum.

Security and demography will boost Israel-Russia ties

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Soviet Union ◽  
Mass Flow ◽  
Former Soviet Union ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Southern Border ◽  
Business Regulations ◽  
Economic Ties

Significance This followed the Trump-Putin Helsinki summit at which the two leaders discussed Israel’s concerns over the threat from Iran, as the Syrian government regains control over its southern border. As part of his anti-Tehran policy, Netanyahu has repeatedly sought to influence Russia, arguably assisted by a broader improvement of relations between the two publics and governments on the back of the mass flow of immigrants (‘olim’) from the former Soviet Union (FSU) to Israel in 1990-2010. Impacts Despite growing economic ties, Moscow is unlikely to seek to use oil exports or business regulations as leverage over Israeli policy. Immigrants from Russia will be more hawkish than the rest of the population on Israeli-Palestinian issues. Russian-origin Israelis will not use their influence to encourage Israel to acquiesce in Russian support for Iranian allies in Syria.

Iran nuclear deal could test European unity

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
National Security ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
European Unity ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Trading Partners

Significance The recent appointments of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Advisor John Bolton, both critics of the deal, could contribute to Trump’s willingness to withdraw -- despite progress in consultations between Washington and its European allies to address US concerns. Impacts The reluctance of financial institutions to enter Iran’s market makes it difficult for firms to secure financing for their Iran operations. US secondary sanctions would have a particularly negative impact on Iran’s top European trading partners: Italy, France, Germany and Spain. A snapback of US sanctions would cut Iranian oil exports and push up crude oil prices.

Iraqi Kurds’ economic recovery will be limited

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Federal Government ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for Iraq’s Kurdish region. Significance The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) has seen a limited economic recovery over the past year. It suffered catastrophically following the central government's imposition of sanctions following the region’s abortive 2017 independence bid. Impacts A likely larger federal government allocation to the KRI in the 2019/20 budget will facilitate economic recovery. Increased US pressure to boost Iraqi oil exports to Turkey will increase local government revenues. As both local and federal government revenues depend on oil, falling prices would cause another contraction.

Libyan discontent could risk further destabilisation

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Governance Structures ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vulnerable Youth ◽  
Standards Of Living ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Extremist Groups

Significance Since late August both governments have been challenged by a wave of demonstrations protesting endemic corruption and deteriorating standards of living -- partly as a result of a blockade of oil exports since January by eastern authorities. Some rallies have been met with violence. Impacts Protests and violent attempts to quash them are likely to shake what little faith ordinary Libyans retain in existing governance structures. Protesters may target key infrastructure -- including oil -- hoping to make their voices heard, risking another shock to the economy. Extremist groups, including Islamic State, could seek to exploit grievances underpinning the protests, recruiting vulnerable youth.

Turning tide of Libya war will have wide repercussions

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Territorial Control ◽  
The Government

Significance A new battle-line has now formed in central Libya. The LNA’s offensive ended largely because of Turkey’s intervention in Libya since January. Extensive Turkish support for the Tripoli government, the Government of National Accord (GNA), neutralised the aerial military advantages the LNA had gained thanks to its foreign sponsors, primarily the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This turned the tide in the conflict. The shift will have geopolitical repercussions and alter local players’ calculations and dynamics. Impacts France must decide whether its hostility towards Turkey and Islamist politics is worth the price: allowing Russia a greater role in Libya. Turkey will attempt to expand the GNA’s territorial control towards Jufra and the oil crescent. A unified Libyan government would reduce both Russian and Turkish influence. Oil exports are likely to stay volatile while fields change hands, though the GNA will be keen to restart any wells it controls.

Domestic demand will reduce Saudi crude oil exports

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Exports

Headline SAUDI ARABIA: Domestic demand will reduce oil exports

US policy in Libya will quietly counteract Egypt, UAE

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Civil War ◽  
The United States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Exports

Subject US policy towards Libya. Significance Since the killing of US Ambassador Chris Stevens in Benghazi in September 2012, the United States has detached itself from Libya, but, as the country moves towards civil war, Washington is considering various forms of re-engagement. More muscular US policy in Libya would increase prospects for stability. Impacts Most foreign businesses will be able to re-enter the country in the next two years if a unity government is agreed. This will be most feasible in isolated 'pockets of stability' around energy facilities, key cities, and potentially demilitarised zones. Oil exports are unlikely to rebound significantly beyond 800,000 barrels per day.

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