Using Bayesian network for risk analysis of inland waterway transportation system considering environmental effects

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhu Haoqiang ◽  
Fu Shanshan ◽  
Zhang Di ◽  
Mao Zhe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Environmental Effects ◽  
Transportation System ◽  
Inland Waterway

scholarly journals Metrics for Assessing Overall Performance of Inland Waterway Ports: A Bayesian Network Based Approach

Complexity ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niamat Ullah Ibne Hossain ◽  
Farjana Nur ◽  
Raed Jaradat ◽  
Seyedmohsen Hosseini ◽  
Mohammad Marufuzzaman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Performance Index ◽  
Belief Propagation ◽  
Transportation System ◽  
Maritime Transportation ◽  
Economic Success ◽  
Inland Waterway ◽  
Overall Performance ◽  
Port Economics

Because ports are considered to be the heart of the maritime transportation system, thereby assessing port performance is necessary for a nation’s development and economic success. This study proposes a novel metric, namely, “port performance index (PPI)”, to determine the overall performance and utilization of inland waterway ports based on six criteria, port facility, port availability, port economics, port service, port connectivity, and port environment. Unlike existing literature, which mainly ranks ports based on quantitative factors, this study utilizes a Bayesian Network (BN) model that focuses on both quantitative and qualitative factors to rank a port. The assessment of inland waterway port performance is further analyzed based on different advanced techniques such as sensitivity analysis and belief propagation. Insights drawn from the study show that all the six criteria are necessary to predict PPI. The study also showed that port service has the highest impact while port economics has the lowest impact among the six criteria on PPI for inland waterway ports.

scholarly journals Metrics for assessing overall performance of inland waterway ports : a Bayesian Network based approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Niamat Ullah Ibne Hossain ◽  
Farjana Nur ◽  
Raed Jaradat ◽  
Seyedmohsen Hosseini ◽  
Mohammad Marufuzzaman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Performance Index ◽  
Belief Propagation ◽  
Transportation System ◽  
Maritime Transportation ◽  
Economic Success ◽  
Inland Waterway ◽  
Overall Performance ◽  
Port Economics

Because ports are considered to be the heart of the maritime transportation system, thereby assessing port performance is necessary for a nation’s development and economic success. This study proposes a novel metric, namely, “port performance index (PPI)”, to determine the overall performance and utilization of inland waterway ports based on six criteria, port facility, port availability, port economics, port service, port connectivity, and port environment. Unlike existing literature, which mainly ranks ports based on quantitative factors, this study utilizes a Bayesian Network (BN) model that focuses on both quantitative and qualitative factors to rank a port. The assessment of inland waterway port performance is further analyzed based on different advanced techniques such as sensitivity analysis and belief propagation. Insights drawn from the study show that all the six criteria are necessary to predict PPI. The study also showed that port service has the highest impact while port economics has the lowest impact among the six criteria on PPI for inland waterway ports.

A Bayesian-Network-based Approach to Risk Analysis in Runway Excursions

2019 ◽  
Vol 72 (5) ◽  
pp. 1121-1139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Calle-Alonso ◽  
Carlos J. Pérez ◽  
Eduardo S. Ayra
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Exploratory Analysis ◽  
Hypothesis Tests ◽  
Aircraft Accidents ◽  
Risk Scenarios ◽  
Key Variables ◽  
Expert Recommendations

Aircraft accidents are extremely rare in the aviation sector. However, their consequences can be very dramatic. One of the most important problems is runway excursions, when an aircraft exceeds the end (overrun) or the side (veer-off) of the runway. After performing exploratory analysis and hypothesis tests, a Bayesian-network-based approach was considered to provide information from risk scenarios involving landing procedures. The method was applied to a real database containing key variables related to landing operations on three runways. The objective was to analyse the effects over runway overrun excursions of failing to fulfil expert recommendations upon landing. For this purpose, the most influential variables were analysed statistically, and several scenarios were built, leading to a runway ranking based on the risk assessed.

Fuzzy-support vector machine geotechnical risk analysis method based on Bayesian network

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. 1975-1985 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Liu ◽  
Jian-jing Zhang ◽  
Chong-hao Zhu ◽  
Bo Xiang ◽  
Dong Wang
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Fuzzy Support Vector Machine ◽  
Geotechnical Risk

scholarly journals Risk Analysis of Earth-Rock Dam Breach Based on Dynamic Bayesian Network

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2305 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li ◽  
Wang ◽  
Ge ◽  
Wei ◽  
Li
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Dynamic Bayesian Network ◽  
Time Factors ◽  
Extended Model ◽  
Bayesian Network Model ◽  
Dam Breach ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Operation Period ◽  
Static Risk

Despite the fact that the Bayesian network has great advantages in logical reasoning and calculation compared with the other traditional risk analysis methods, there are still obvious shortcomings in the study of dynamic risk. The risk factors of the earth-rock dam breach are complex, which vary with time during the operation period. Static risk analysis, limited to a specific period of time, cannot meet the needs of comprehensive assessment and early warning. By introducing time factors, a dynamic Bayesian network model was established to study the dynamic characteristics of dam-breach probability. Combined with the calculation of the conditional probability of nodes based on the Leaky Noisy-Or gate extended model, the reasoning results of Bayesian networks were modified by updating the data of different time nodes. Taking an earth-rock dam as an example, the results show that it has less possibility to breach and keep stable along the time axis. Moreover, the factors with vulnerability and instability were found effective, which could provide guidance for dam risk management.

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