Is there a link between per capita alcohol consumption and youth drinking? A time–series analysis for Sweden in 1972–2012

Background:It is well recognized that both acute and chronic alcohol use are among the major behaviorally modifiable factors that are associated with suicidal behaviour. High suicide rate in the former Soviet Republics and its profound fluctuation over the past decades have attracted considerable interest. There is mounting evidence that the role of alcohol is a crucial in understanding this phenomenon.Aim:To estimate the aggregate level effect of alcohol on the suicide rate in the former Soviet republic Belarus.Method:Trends in alcohol consumption per capita and suicides rate from 1979 to 2007 were analyzed employing ARIMA time series analysis.Results:According to Bureau of Forensic Medicine autopsy reports the number of BAC-positive suicides increased by 47.7% (from 10.7 to 15.8 per 100.000) and number of BAC-negative suicides increased by 31.4% (from 7 to 9.2 per 100.000). Alcohol in blood was found in 62% suicide victims for the whole period, with the minimum figure 49.3% in 1988 and maximum 68.5% in 1981. The results from the time series analysis indicated the presence of a statistically significant association between the alcohol consumption and BAC-positive suicide rates, while changes in the number of BAC-negative suicides were not related to fluctuation in alcohol consumption level. The analysis suggests that a 1 litre increase in alcohol consumption per capita would result in a 10,9% increase in a number of BAC-positive suicides.Conclusion:The results of present study support the idea that alcohol was responsible for the fluctuation in suicide rate in Belarus.

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Beverage-Specific Alcohol Sale and Suicide in Russia

Crisis ◽

10.1027/0227-5910.30.4.186 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 30 (4) ◽

pp. 186-191 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

Y.E. Razvodovsky

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Binge Drinking ◽

Suicide Rate ◽

Drinking Pattern ◽

Drinking Patterns ◽

Series Analysis ◽

Suicide Rates ◽

Per Capita ◽

Alcohol Sales

Background: The high suicide rate in Russia and its profound fluctuation over the past decades have attracted considerable interest. There is growing evidence that beverage preference and binge-drinking patterns, i.e., excessive consumption of strong spirits, results in a quicker and deeper level of intoxication, which increases the propensity for the alcohol-related suicide. In line with this evidence, we assumed that higher levels of vodka consumption, in conjunction with binge-drinking patterns, would result in a close, aggregate-level association between vodka sales and suicide in Russia. Aims and Methods: To test this hypothesis, trends in beverage-specific alcohol sales per capita and suicide rates from 1970 to 2005 in Russia were analyzed employing ARIMA time-series analysis. Results: The results of the time-series analysis suggested that a 1 liter increase in overall alcohol sales would result in a 4% increase in the male suicide rate and a 2.8% increase in the female suicide rate; a 1 liter increase in vodka sales would increase the suicide rate by 9.3% for men and by 6% for women. Conclusions: This study replicates previous findings from other settings, which suggest that suicide rates tend to be more responsive to changes in distilled spirits consumption per capita than to the total level of alcohol consumption. Assuming that drinking spirits is usually associated with intoxication episodes, these findings provide additional evidence that the drinking pattern is an important determinant in the relationship between alcohol and suicide. The outcomes of this study also provide support for the hypothesis that suicide and alcohol are closely connected in cultures where an intoxication-oriented drinking pattern prevails and adds to the growing body of evidence that alcohol plays a crucial role in the fluctuation in suicide mortality rates in Russia during recent decades.

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The Association between the Australian Alcopops Tax and National Chlamydia Rates among Young People—an Interrupted Time Series Analysis

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph17041343 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 17 (4) ◽

pp. 1343 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

William Gilmore ◽

Tanya Chikritzhs ◽

Hamish McManus ◽

John Kaldor ◽

Rebecca Guy

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Alcohol Consumption ◽

Young People ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Interrupted Time Series ◽

Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽

Sexually Transmitted ◽

Series Analysis ◽

Alcohol Taxation ◽

Gender And Age

A national tax increase, which became known as the “alcopops tax”, was introduced in Australia on the 27th April 2008 on ready-to-drink alcoholic beverages, which are consumed predominantly by young people. The affordability of alcohol has been identified as the strongest environmental driver of alcohol consumption, and alcohol consumption is a well-known risk factor in the spread of sexually transmitted infections via its association with sexual risk-taking. We conducted a study to investigate whether there was any association between the introduction of the tax and changes in national chlamydia rates: (i) notification rates (diagnoses per 100,000 population; primary outcome and standard approach in alcohol taxation studies), and (ii) test positivity rates (diagnoses per 100 tests; secondary outcome) among 15–24 and 25–34-year-olds, using interrupted time series analysis. Gender- and age-specific chlamydia trends among those 35 and older were applied as internal control series and gender- and age-specific consumer price index-adjusted per capita income trends were controlled for as independent variables. We hypothesised that the expected negative association between the tax and chlamydia notification rates might be masked due to increasing chlamydia test counts over the observation period (2000 to 2016). We hypothesised that the association between the tax and chlamydia test positivity rates would occur as an immediate level decrease, as a result of a decrease in alcohol consumption, which, in turn, would lead to a decrease in risky sexual behaviour and, hence, chlamydia transmission. None of the gender and age-specific population-based rates indicated a significant immediate or lagged association with the tax. However, we found an immediate decrease in test positivity rates for 25–34-year-old males (27% reduction—equivalent to 11,891 cases prevented post-tax) that remained detectable up to a lag of six months and a decrease at a lag of six months for 15–24-year-old males (31% reduction—equivalent to 16,615 cases prevented) following the tax. For no other gender or age combination did the change in test positivity rates reach significance. This study adds to the evidence base supporting the use of alcohol taxation to reduce health-related harms experienced by young people and offers a novel method for calculating sexually transmitted infection rates for policy evaluation.

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Is Youth Violence Temporally Related to Alcohol? A Time-Series Analysis of Binge Drinking, Youth Violence and Total Alcohol Consumption in Sweden

Alcohol and Alcoholism ◽

10.1093/alcalc/agt035 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 48 (5) ◽

pp. 598-604 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Johan Svensson ◽

Jonas Landberg

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Alcohol Consumption ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Binge Drinking ◽

Youth Violence ◽

Series Analysis ◽

Total Alcohol

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The effect of changes in alcohol consumption on mortality and admissions with alcohol-related diagnoses in Stockholm County-a time series analysis

Addiction ◽

10.1111/j.1360-0443.1997.tb02872.x ◽

1997 ◽

Vol 92 (11) ◽

pp. 1523-1536 ◽

Cited By ~ 24

Author(s):

HÅKAN LEIFMAN ◽

ANDERS ROMELSJÖ

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Alcohol Consumption ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Stockholm County ◽

Series Analysis

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Contribution of Alcohol to Hypertension Mortality in Russia

Journal of Addiction ◽

10.1155/2014/483910 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 2014 ◽

pp. 1-6 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Y. E. Razvodovsky

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Alcohol Consumption ◽

Mortality Rate ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Binge Drinking ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Mortality Data ◽

Effective Measure ◽

Male And Female ◽

Series Analysis

Background. Hypertension (HTN) is reported to be the leading contributor to premature death globally. Considerable research evidence suggests that excessive alcohol intake (binge drinking) is an independent risk factor for HTN. It was repeatedly emphasized that binge drinking is a major contributor to a high cardiovascular mortality rate in Russia.Objective. The aim of this study was to examine the aggregate-level relation between alcohol consumption and HTN mortality rates in Russia.Method. Age-standardized sex-specific male and female HTN mortality data for the period 1980–2005 and data on overall alcohol consumption were analyzed by means of ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) time-series analysis. The level of alcohol consumption per capita has been estimated using the indirect method based on alcohol psychoses incidence rate and employing ARIMA time-series analysis.Results. Alcohol consumption was significantly associated with both male and female HTN mortality rates: a 1-liter increase in overall alcohol consumption would result in a 6.3% increase in the male HTN mortality rate and in a 4.9% increase in female HTN mortality rate. The results of the analysis suggest that 57.5% of all male HTN deaths and 48.6% of all female HTN deaths in Russia could be attributed to alcohol.Conclusions. The outcomes of this study provide support for the hypothesis that alcohol is an important contributor to the high HTN mortality rate in the Russian Federation. The findings from the present study have important implications with to regards HTN mortality prevention, indicating that a restrictive alcohol policy can be considered as an effective measure of prevention in countries with a higher rate of alcohol consumption.

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Incidence of Tuberculosis and Associations with Indicators of Alcohol Consumption in Three Regions of Northwest Russia in 1975–2009: A Time-Series Analysis

Journal of Environmental and Public Health ◽

10.1155/2013/693963 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 2013 ◽

pp. 1-5 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

V. N. Kuznetsov ◽

K. V. Shelygin ◽

A. M. Grjibovski ◽

A. O. Mariandyshev ◽

E. Johansson ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Alcohol Consumption ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Social Consequences ◽

Alcohol Poisoning ◽

Series Analysis ◽

Vologda Region ◽

Arkhangelsk Region ◽

Increased Risk ◽

Murmansk Region

Background. Alcohol has several social consequences that are associated with increased risk of tuberculosis. However, there have been no studies assessing the links between tuberculosis and alcohol consumption in northwest Russia. The aim of this study was to assess associations between the incidence of tuberculosis and indicators of alcohol consumption in three regions of northwest Russia.Methods. The study was performed in Arkhangelsk, Murmansk and Vologda regions using the data from 1975 to 2009. Deaths from alcohol poisoning and the incidence of alcohol psychoses were used as indicators of alcohol consumption. Associations between the incidence of tuberculosis and the above mentioned indicators were studied using time-series analysis.Results. We identified significant positive associations between the incidence of tuberculosis and the incidence of alcohol psychoses in the same year in Arkhangelsk region (β=0.24, 95% CI: 0.10–0.37) and in Vologda region (β=0.18, 95% CI: 0.10–0.25), but not in Murmansk region.Conclusions. We found an association between the incidence of alcohol psychoses and the incidence of tuberculosis in the same year in Arkhangelsk and Vologda regions suggesting an indirect link between excessive levels of alcohol consumption and the incidence of tuberculosis in Russia.

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