A review of the Southern Oscillation: oceanic-atmospheric circulation changes and related rainfall anomalies

1984 ◽  
Vol 36A (5) ◽  
pp. 490-504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vernon E. Kousky ◽  
Mary T. Kagano ◽  
Iracema F. A. Cavalcanti
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies ◽  
Circulation Changes

scholarly journals Origins of Biases in CMIP5 Models Simulating Northwest Pacific Summertime Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies during the Decaying Phase of ENSO

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (14) ◽  
pp. 5707-5729 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weichen Tao ◽  
Gang Huang ◽  
Renguang Wu ◽  
Kaiming Hu ◽  
Pengfei Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
Circulation Anomalies ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract The present study documents the biases of summertime northwest Pacific (NWP) atmospheric circulation anomalies during the decaying phase of ENSO and investigates their plausible reasons in 32 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Based on an intermodel empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related 850-hPa wind anomalies, the dominant modes of biases are extracted. The first EOF mode, explaining 21.3% of total intermodel variance, is characterized by a cyclone over the NWP, indicating a weaker NWP anticyclone. The cyclone appears to be a Rossby wave response to unrealistic equatorial western Pacific (WP) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies related to excessive equatorial Pacific cold tongue in the models. On one hand, the cold SST biases increase the mean zonal SST gradient, which further intensifies warm zonal advection, favoring the development and persistence of equatorial WP SST anomalies. On the other hand, they reduce the anomalous convection caused by ENSO-related warming, and the resultant increase in downward shortwave radiation contributes to the SST anomalies there. The second EOF mode, explaining 18.6% of total intermodel variance, features an anticyclone over the NWP with location shifted northward. The related SST anomalies in the Indo-Pacific sector show a tripole structure, with warming in the tropical Indian Ocean and equatorial central and eastern Pacific and cooling in the NWP. The Indo-Pacific SST anomalies are highly controlled by ENSO amplitude, which is determined by the intensity of subtropical cells via the adjustment of meridional and vertical advection in the models.

scholarly journals Aerosol reductions outweigh circulation changes for future improvements in Beijing haze

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liang Guo ◽  
Laura J. Wilcox ◽  
Massimo Bollasina ◽  
Steven T. Turnock ◽  
Marianne T. Lund ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation Patterns ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Main Driver ◽  
Emission Changes ◽  
Aerosol Emissions ◽  
Circulation Changes

Abstract. Despite local emission reductions, severe haze events remain a serious issue in Beijing. Previous studies have suggested that both greenhouse gas increases and aerosol decreases are likely to increase the frequency of weather patterns conducive to haze events. However, the combined effect of atmospheric circulation changes and aerosol and precursor emission changes on Beijing haze remains unclear. We use the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to explore the effects of aerosol and greenhouse gas emission changes on both haze weather and Beijing haze itself. We confirm that the occurrence of haze weather patterns is likely to increase in future under all SSPs, and show that even though aerosol reductions play a small role, greenhouse gas increases are the main driver, especially during the second half of the 21st century. However, the severity of the haze events decreases on decadal timescales by as much as 70 % by 2100. The main influence on the haze itself is the reductions in local aerosol emissions, which outweigh the effects of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. This demonstrates that aerosol reductions are beneficial, despite their influence on the circulation.

scholarly journals Atmospheric Dynamics Feedback: Concept, Simulations, and Climate Implications

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (8) ◽  
pp. 3249-3264 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael P. Byrne ◽  
Tapio Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Atmospheric Dynamics ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Circulation Changes

AbstractThe regional climate response to radiative forcing is largely controlled by changes in the atmospheric circulation. It has been suggested that global climate sensitivity also depends on the circulation response, an effect called the “atmospheric dynamics feedback.” Using a technique to isolate the influence of changes in atmospheric circulation on top-of-the-atmosphere radiation, the authors calculate the atmospheric dynamics feedback in coupled climate models. Large-scale circulation changes contribute substantially to all-sky and cloud feedbacks in the tropics but are relatively less important at higher latitudes. Globally averaged, the atmospheric dynamics feedback is positive and amplifies the near-surface temperature response to climate change by an average of 8% in simulations with coupled models. A constraint related to the atmospheric mass budget results in the dynamics feedback being small on large scales relative to feedbacks associated with thermodynamic processes. Idealized-forcing simulations suggest that circulation changes at high latitudes are potentially more effective at influencing global temperature than circulation changes at low latitudes, and the implications for past and future climate change are discussed.

Quantifying Teleconnection pathways leading to Low Rainfall anomalies during Boreal Summer in Indonesian Borneo

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Lam ◽  
Marlene Kretschmer ◽  
Samantha Adams ◽  
Alberto Arribas ◽  
Rachel Prudden ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Causal Inference ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies

<p>Teleconnections are sources of predictability for regional weather and climate, which can be represented by causal relationships between climate features in physically separated regions. In this study, teleconnections of low rainfall anomalies in Indonesian Borneo are analysed and quantified using causal inference theory and causal networks. Causal hypotheses are first developed based on climate model experiments in literature and then justified by means of partial regression analysis between NCEP reanalysis sea surface temperatures and climate indices (drivers) and rainfall data in Indonesian Borneo from various sources (target variable). We find that, as previous studies have highlighted, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a profound effect on rainfall in Indonesia Borneo, with positive Niño 3.4 index serving as a direct driver of low rainfall, also partially through reduced sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over Indonesian waters. On the other hand, while Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) influences Indonesian Borneo rainfall through SSTs over the same area as a thermodynamic effect, its remaining effect has shifted at multidecadal timescale, opening the rooms for further research. This work informs the potential of a systematic causal approach to statistical inference as a powerful tool to verify and explore atmospheric teleconnections and enables seasonal forecasting to strengthen prevention and control of drought and fire multihazards over peatlands in the study region.</p><p>Keywords: Tropical teleconnections, Causal inference, Climate variability, Drought, Indonesia</p>

scholarly journals Impacts of large-scale atmospheric circulation changes due to winter sea-ice retreat on Black Carbon transport and deposition to the Arctic

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Pozzoli ◽  
Srdan Dobricic ◽  
Simone Russo ◽  
Elisabetta Vignati
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The North ◽  
Ice Retreat ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Sea Ice Retreat

Abstract. Winter warming and sea ice retreat observed in the Arctic in the last decades determine changes of large scale atmospheric circulation pattern that may impact as well the transport of black carbon (BC) to the Arctic and its deposition on the sea ice, with possible feedbacks on the regional and global climate forcing. In this study we developed and applied a new statistical algorithm, based on the Maximum Likelihood Estimate approach, to determine how the changes of three large scale weather patterns (the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Scandinavian Blocking, and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation), associated with winter increasing temperatures and sea ice retreat in the Arctic, impact the transport of BC to the Arctic and its deposition. We found that the three atmospheric patterns together determine a decreasing winter deposition trend of BC between 1980 and 2015 in the Eastern Arctic while they increase BC deposition in the Western Arctic. The increasing trend is mainly due to the more frequent occurrences of stable high pressure systems (atmospheric blocking) near Scandinavia favouring the transport in the lower troposphere of BC from Europe and North Atlantic directly into to the Arctic. The North Atlantic Oscillation has a smaller impact on BC deposition in the Arctic, but determines an increasing BC atmospheric load over the entire Arctic Ocean with increasing BC concentrations in the upper troposphere. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation does not influence significantly the transport and deposition of BC to the Arctic. The results show that changes in atmospheric circulation due to polar atmospheric warming and reduced winter sea ice significantly impacted BC transport and deposition. The anthropogenic emission reductions applied in the last decades were, therefore, crucial to counterbalance the most likely trend of increasing BC pollution in the Arctic.

Climate and atmospheric circulation changes over the past 1000 years reconstructed from oxygen isotopes in lake-sediment carbonate from Ireland

The Holocene ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 20 (7) ◽  
pp. 1105-1111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Holmes ◽  
Carol Arrowsmith ◽  
William Austin ◽  
John Boyle ◽  
Elizabeth Fisher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Lake Sediment ◽  
Oxygen Isotopes ◽  
The Past ◽  
Circulation Changes ◽  
Past 1000 Years

scholarly journals AMO- and ENSO-Driven Summertime Circulation and Precipitation Variations in North America

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (19) ◽  
pp. 6477-6495 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qi Hu ◽  
Song Feng
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Precipitation Anomaly ◽  
Enso Cycle ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
Forced Waves

Abstract Interannual and multidecadal time-scale anomalies in sea surface temperatures (SST) of the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans could result in persistent atmospheric circulation and regional precipitation anomalies for years to decades. Understanding the processes that connect such SST forcings with circulation and precipitation anomalies is thus important for understanding climate variations and for improving predictions at interannual–decadal time scales. This study focuses on the interrelationship between the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and their resulting interannual to multidecadal time-scale variations in summertime precipitation in North America. Major results show that the ENSO forcing can strongly modify the atmospheric circulation variations driven by the AMO. Moreover, these modifications differ considerably between the subtropics and the mid- and high-latitude regions. In the subtropics, ENSO-driven variations in precipitation are fairly uniform across longitudes so ENSO effects only add interannual variations to the amplitude of the precipitation anomaly pattern driven by the AMO. In the mid- and high latitudes, ENSO-forced waves in the atmosphere strongly modify the circulation anomalies driven by the AMO, resulting in distinctive interannual variations following the ENSO cycle. The role of the AMO is shown by an asymmetry in precipitation during ENSO between the warm and cold phases of the AMO. These results extend the outcomes of the studies of the recent Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Drought Working Group from the AMO and ENSO effects on droughts to understanding of the mechanisms and causal processes connecting the individual and combined SST forcing of the AMO and ENSO with the interannual and multidecadal variations in summertime precipitation and droughts in North America.

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