Impact of VAT Reform on Swedish Restaurants: A Synthetic Control Group Approach*

AbstractIn some applications, researchers using the synthetic control method (SCM) to evaluate the effect of a policy may struggle to determine whether they have identified a “good match” between the control group and treated group. In this paper, we demonstrate the utility of the mean and maximum Absolute Standardized Mean Difference (ASMD) as a test of balance between a synthetic control unit and treated unit, and provide guidance on what constitutes a poor fit when using a synthetic control. We explore and compare other potential metrics using a simulation study. We provide an application of our proposed balance metric to the 2013 Los Angeles (LA) Firearm Study [9]. Using Uniform Crime Report data, we apply the SCM to obtain a counterfactual for the LA firearm-related crime rate based on a weighted combination of control units in a donor pool of cities. We use this counterfactual to estimate the effect of the LA Firearm Study intervention and explore the impact of changing the donor pool and pre-intervention duration period on resulting matches and estimated effects. We demonstrate how decision-making about the quality of a synthetic control can be improved by using ASMD. The mean and max ASMD clearly differentiate between poor matches and good matches. Researchers need better guidance on what is a meaningful imbalance between synthetic control and treated groups. In addition to the use of gap plots, the proposed balance metric can provide an objective way of determining fit.

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Assessment of the impact of the employment roadmap on the unemployment rate of the Republic of Kazakhstan: synthetic control method

Central Asian Economic Review ◽

10.52821/2224-5561-2021-2-121-130 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 121-130

Author(s):

T. S. Sokira ◽

Z. T. Myshbayeva

Keyword(s):

Unemployment Rate ◽

Control Method ◽

Action Plan ◽

Control Group ◽

Synthetic Control ◽

Donor Pool ◽

Synthetic Control Method ◽

The Republic ◽

The Impact ◽

Weighted Combination

The purpose of the research is to assess the impact of the action plan of the Employment Roadmap on the unemployment rate in Kazakhstan.Methodology. Synthetic Control Method was used in this paper. The method, which compares one or more units exposed to the event and determines what would have happened if the unit had not been treated. In other words, this method creates a weighted combination of control states to create a single «synthetic» control group, in order to approach the counterfactual unit in Kazakhstan in the absence of a plan or Roadmap.The originality / value of the research based on the analysis, panel data from Kazakhstan and 13 donor pool countries for the period 2000-2019 were taken for modeling.Findings: As a result of the study, it was revealed that the unemployment rate would have been 2% higher in 2019 if Kazakhstan had not adopted an action plan in the form of an Employment Roadmap in 2009.

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Effect on background checks of newly-enacted comprehensive background check policies in Oregon and Washington: a synthetic control approach

Injury Epidemiology ◽

10.1186/s40621-019-0225-8 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Alvaro Castillo-Carniglia ◽

Daniel W. Webster ◽

Garen J. Wintemute

Keyword(s):

Gradual Increase ◽

Group Method ◽

Control Group ◽

Synthetic Control ◽

Private Party ◽

Control Approach ◽

Background Checks ◽

Background Check ◽

Criminal Background ◽

Check System

Abstract Background Comprehensive background check (CBC) laws extend background check requirements to private party firearm transfers to prevent firearm acquisitions by prohibited persons. The aim of our study was to estimate the association between CBC policies and changes in background check rates for firearm acquisition in two states (Oregon and Washington) that have newly-enacted CBC policies. Methods We used data on handgun background checks from January 1999 to December 2018 from the National Instant Criminal Background Check System. Observed trends in exposed states were contrasted with counterfactual trends estimated with the synthetic control group method. Findings CBC policies were associated with increases in background checks in Oregon (by 18.0%; p = 0.074), but not in Washington (4%; p = 0.321). A gradual increase in private party checks was seen following enactment in Washington; however, firearm transactions coded as “private” represent less than 5% of total background checks in that state. Conclusions Comprehensive background check policies appear to be effective in increasing pre-firearm-sale background checks in Oregon but not in Washington. Differences appear to be related to variations in the proportion of firearm sales that are private party transfers and to gradual adaptation to the new law by private gun sellers.

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Using register data to estimate causal effects of interventions: An ex post synthetic control-group approach

Scandinavian Journal of Public Health ◽

10.1177/1403494817702338 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 45 (17_suppl) ◽

pp. 50-55 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Magnus Bygren ◽

Ryszard Szulkin

Keyword(s):

Observational Data ◽

Treatment Effect ◽

Job Training ◽

Panel Data Analysis ◽

Register Data ◽

Causal Effects ◽

Control Group ◽

Synthetic Control ◽

Regression To The Mean ◽

Ex Post

Aims: It is common in the context of evaluations that participants have not been selected on the basis of transparent participation criteria, and researchers and evaluators many times have to make do with observational data to estimate effects of job training programs and similar interventions. The techniques developed by researchers in such endeavours are useful not only to researchers narrowly focused on evaluations, but also to social and population science more generally, as observational data overwhelmingly are the norm, and the endogeneity challenges encountered in the estimation of causal effects with such data are not trivial. The aim of this article is to illustrate how register data can be used strategically to evaluate programs and interventions and to estimate causal effects of participation in these. Methods: We use propensity score matching on pretreatment-period variables to derive a synthetic control group, and we use this group as a comparison to estimate the employment-treatment effect of participation in a large job-training program. Results: We find the effect of treatment to be small and positive but transient. Conclusions: Our method reveals a strong regression to the mean effect, extremely easy to interpret as a treatment effect had a less advanced design been used (e.g. a within-subjects panel data analysis), and illustrates one of the unique advantages of using population register data for research purposes.

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Comprehensive background check policy and firearm background checks in three US states

Injury Prevention ◽

10.1136/injuryprev-2017-042475 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 24 (6) ◽

pp. 431-436 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Alvaro Castillo-Carniglia ◽

Rose M C Kagawa ◽

Daniel W Webster ◽

Jon S Vernick ◽

Magdalena Cerdá ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sensitivity Analyses ◽

Group Method ◽

Control Group ◽

Synthetic Control ◽

Private Party ◽

Background Checks ◽

Background Check ◽

Consistent Increase ◽

The Difference ◽

Using Data

BackgroundComprehensive background check (CBC) policies are hypothesised to reduce firearm-related violence because they extend background checks to private party firearm sales, but no study has determined whether these policies actually increase background checks, an expected intermediary outcome. We evaluate the association between CBC policies and the rates of firearm background checks in three states that recently implemented these policies: Delaware (July 2013), Colorado (July 2013) and Washington (December 2014).MethodsWe used the synthetic control group method to estimate the difference from estimated counterfactual postintervention trends in the monthly rate of background checks per 1 00 000 people for handguns, long guns and both types combined, using data for January 1999 through December 2016. Inference was based on results from permutation tests. We conducted multiple sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of our results.ResultsBackground check rates increased in Delaware, by 22%–34% depending on the type of firearm, following enactment of its CBC law. No overall changes were observed in Washington and Colorado. Our results were robust to changes in the comparison group and statistical methods.ConclusionsThe enactment of CBC policies was associated with an overall increase in firearm background checks only in Delaware. Data external to the study suggest that Washington experienced a modest, but consistent, increase in background checks for private party sales, and Colorado experienced a similar increase in checks for sales not at gun shows. Non-compliance may explain the lack of an overall increase in background checks in Washington and Colorado.

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Self-Schemas and Self-Esteem Discrepancies in Subclinical Paranoia: The Essential Role of Depressive Symptoms

Frontiers in Psychiatry ◽

10.3389/fpsyt.2021.623755 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 ◽

Author(s):

Manel Monsonet ◽

Sergi Ballespí ◽

Tamara Sheinbaum ◽

Carmen Valiente ◽

Regina Espinosa ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Depressive Symptoms ◽

Essential Role ◽

Total Sample ◽

Self Esteem ◽

Clinical Population ◽

Control Group ◽

Dimensional Approach ◽

Group Approach ◽

Implicit And Explicit

Background : Self-concepts are being intensively investigated in relation to paranoia, but research has shown some contradictory findings. Studying subclinical phenomena in a non-clinical population should allow for a clearer understanding given that clinical confounding factors are avoided. We explored self-esteem, self-schemas, and implicit/explicit self-esteem discrepancies in three non-clinical groups with different psychopathological traits and a control group.Methods: Participants with elevated trait-paranoia (n = 41), depressive symptoms (n = 34), a combination of both traits (n = 32), and a control group (n = 71) were assessed on implicit and explicit self-esteem, self-schemas, depression, and paranoia. A dimensional approach with the total sample (n = 208) was also used to complement the information provided by the group approach.Results: All groups presented similar and positive levels of implicit self-esteem. Trait-paranoia participants had similar levels of explicit self-esteem and self-schemas compared with the control group. However, the group with a combination of trait-paranoia and depressive symptoms showed the lowest levels of positive self-schemas and self-esteem. Furthermore, this group and the control group displayed implicit/explicit self-esteem discrepancies, although in opposite directions and with different implications. The dimensional approach revealed associations of trait-paranoia and depressive symptoms with poor explicit self-esteem and self-schemas but not with implicit self-esteem.Conclusions: Trait-paranoia participants showed different self-representations depending on whether depressive symptoms were present or not. The interaction between subclinical neurotic and psychotic traits entailed a detrimental self-representation that might increase the risk for psychopathology.

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Evaluating the economic impact of a preventative seismic legislation in Ecuador

Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal ◽

10.14738/assrj.71.7677 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. 330-340

Author(s):

Juan Ponce ◽

Andrés Salazar

Keyword(s):

Economic Impact ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Value Added ◽

Control Group ◽

Synthetic Control ◽

Seismic Resistant ◽

Negative Effect ◽

New Construction ◽

Inspection Policy ◽

The Cost

At the end of 2013 a compulsory inspection policy was introduced in Quito-Ecuador to ensure that new buildings complied with seismic resistant design requirements. This policy could affect the economic sector of construction by increasing the cost of buildings. It is in this context that this paper analyses the economic impact of the new construction policy. Given that this policy only applied to the canton of Quito and not to any other canton in Ecuador, the paper creates a synthetic control group on the basis of infrastructure and socio-economic data of the fifteen most heavily populated cantons in the country. The results show a statistically significant and negative impact. In other words, although the new policy succeeded in improving the seismic resistant quality of buildings in the canton of Quito, at the same time it had a negative effect on the per capita gross value added of the construction sector.

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Internal Validity

10.1093/oso/9780190661557.003.0007 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Richard McCleary ◽

David McDowall ◽

Bradley J. Bartos

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Internal Validity ◽

Control Group ◽

Synthetic Control ◽

Donor Pool ◽

Control Time ◽

Data Control ◽

Rubin's Causal Model ◽

Definition Of ◽

And Control

Chapter 7 begins with an outline and description of five threats to internal validity common to time series designs: history, maturation, instrumentation, regression, and selection. Given the fundamental role of prediction in the modern scientific method, scientific hypotheses are necessarily causal. After an outline of the evolving definition of “causality” in the social sciences, contemporary Rubin causality or counterfactual causality is introduced. Under the assumption that subjects were randomly assigned to the treatment and control groups, Rubin’s causal model allows one to estimate the unobserved causal parameter from observed data. Control time series are chosen so as to render plausible threats to internal validity implausible. An appropriate control time series may not exist, however, an ideal time series may be possible to construct. Synthetic control group models construct a control time series that optimally recreates the treated unit’s preintervention trend using a combination of untreated donor pool units.

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Hurricane Iniki: measuring the long-term economic impact of a natural disaster using synthetic control

Environment and Development Economics ◽

10.1017/s1355770x11000350 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 17 (2) ◽

pp. 187-205 ◽

Cited By ~ 80

Author(s):

Makena Coffman ◽

Ilan Noy

Keyword(s):

Hawaiian Island ◽

Control Program ◽

American Statistical Association ◽

Control Group ◽

Synthetic Control ◽

Tobacco Control Program ◽

Singular Event ◽

Long Term Impact ◽

Control Methodology

AbstractThe long-term impacts of disasters are ‘hidden’ as it becomes increasingly difficult over time to attribute them to a singular event. We use a synthetic control methodology, formalized in Abadie, A. et al. (2010), Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: estimating the effect of California's tobacco control program, Journal of the American Statistical Association105(490): 493–505, to estimate the long-term impacts of a 1992 hurricane on the Hawaiian island of Kauai. Hurricane Iniki, the strongest storm to hit Hawaii in many years, wrought an estimated US$ 7.4 billion (2008) in direct damages. Since the unaffected Hawaiian Islands provide a control group, the case of Iniki is uniquely suited to provide insight into the long-term impact of natural disasters. We show that Kauai's economy has yet to recover, 18 years after this event. We estimate the island's current population to be 12 per cent smaller than it would have been had the hurricane not occurred. Similarly, aggregate personal income and the number of private sector jobs are proportionally lower.

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