Pipeline Integrity Management: Estimating and Prioritizing the Risk Resulting From Pipeline Facility Operations

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Larry C. Decker
Keyword(s):  
Risk Model ◽  
Risk Profile ◽  
Logical Approach ◽  
Relative Safety ◽  
Management Plans ◽  
Integrity Management ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
Consistent Approach ◽  
Cost Risk

Recent efforts to develop a consistent approach to understanding the risk associated with operating a cross country pipeline have focused primarily on the pipe itself. Integrity management plans often include a prioritized risk profile that all but ignores the specific risks associated with operating tank farms, terminals, pumps and compression. This paper outlines a detailed logical approach that can be utilized to evaluate the relative safety, environmental and cost risk associated with operating diverse types of equipment within a pipeline station. Topics covered include the basic objectives of a facility risk model while providing the detail (granulation) necessary to continuously improve. A specific methodology is suggested as a systematic tactic to make an “apples to apples” comparison of diverse stations, lines and types of equipment, from a risk standpoint.

scholarly journals Modeling of Bank Credit Risk Management Using the Cost Risk Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 211
Author(s):  
Iryna Yanenkova ◽  
Yuliia Nehoda ◽  
Svetlana Drobyazko ◽  
Andrii Zavhorodnii ◽  
Lyudmyla Berezovska
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Credit Risk Management ◽  
Loan Default ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Credit Portfolio ◽  
Cost Risk

This article deals with the issue of managing bank credit risk using a cost risk model. Modeling of bank credit risk management was proposed based on neural-cell technologies, which expand the possibilities of modeling complex objects and processes and provide high reliability of credit risk determination. The purpose of the article is to improve and develop methodical support and practical recommendations for reducing the level of risk based on the value-at-risk (VaR) methodology and its subsequent combination with methods of fuzzy programming and symbiotic methodical support. The model makes it possible to create decision support subsystems for nonperforming loan management based on the neuro-fuzzy approach. For this paper, economic and mathematical tools (based on the VaR methodology) were used, which made it possible to analyze and forecast the dynamics of overdue payment; assess the quality of the credit portfolio of the bank; determine possible trends in bank development. A scientific and practical approach is taken to assess and forecast the degree of credit problematicity by qualitative criteria using a mathematical model based on a fuzzy technology, which can forecast the increased risk of loan default at an early stage in the process of monitoring the loan portfolio and model forecasting changes in the degree of credit problematicity on change of indicators. A methodology is proposed for the analysis and forecasting of indicators of troubled loan debt, which should be implemented as software and included in the decision support system during the process of monitoring the risk of the bank’s credit portfolio.

Scenario based evaluation of a cost risk model through sensitivity analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 403-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Önder Ökmen ◽  
Ahmet Öztaş
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Practical Method ◽  
Cost Evaluation ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Detailed Evaluation ◽  
Cost Risk

Purpose – Actual costs frequently deviate from the estimated costs in either favorable or adverse direction in construction projects. Conventional cost evaluation methods do not take the uncertainty and correlation effects into account. In this regard, a simulation-based cost risk analysis model, the Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model, previously has been proposed to evaluate the uncertainty effect on construction costs in case of correlated costs and correlated risk-factors. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the detailed evaluation of the Cost Risk Analysis Model through scenario and sensitivity analyses. Design/methodology/approach – The evaluation process consists of three scenarios with three sensitivity analyses in each and 28 simulations in total. During applications, the model’s important parameter called the mean proportion coefficient is modified and the user-dependent variables like the risk-factor influence degrees are changed to observe the response of the model to these modifications and to examine the indirect, two-sided and qualitative correlation capturing algorithm of the model. Monte Carlo Simulation is also applied on the same data to compare the results. Findings – The findings have shown that the Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model is capable of capturing the correlation between the costs and between the risk-factors, and operates in accordance with the theoretical expectancies. Originality/value – Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model can be preferred as a reliable and practical method by the professionals of the construction sector thanks to its detailed evaluation introduced in this paper.

scholarly journals Effects of CCA Participation during Examination Stand-down Period on Examination Results – A School Cross-country Team Experience

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 20-27
Author(s):  
Steven Chin Hwee QUEK
Keyword(s):  
Learning Opportunity ◽  
School Population ◽  
School Sports ◽  
Team Experience ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
Consistent Approach

It is a common practice in schools in Singapore to implement CCA stand-down period of about four weeks prior to the examination to allow students to focus on their revision. This study attempted to investigate the effects of a school sports team’s participation in CCA training during the stand-down period on their exams results. A school cross country team where the author taught was selected for the study. It was found that students who continued to train three times a week for four weeks prior to the examinations did not perform any worse in their examination results. Instead students in the team who opted to stand-down, like the rest of the school population, actually performed worse. The athletes who were training were very focused as they felt that time was a premium. They also started work in advance and adopted a more consistent approach to their work. Having training also made these students rest better and gave them a break to recharge and freshen up. Overall, having a goal helps them stay energised and focused. With the necessary guidance and facilitation, juggling CCA and examination can be a valuable learning opportunity for students, making them the holistic students that the CCA programme aims to achieve.

scholarly journals Correction of Accounting Errors through Post Balance Sheet Event Analysis for Romanian Companies

Economies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monica Laura Zlati ◽  
Valentin Marian Antohi ◽  
Petronela Cardon
Keyword(s):  
Risk Model ◽  
Financial Analysis ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Risk Profile ◽  
Event Analysis ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Accounting Errors

The study scope is to present the typology of the events analyzed through our research and their impact on the quality of reported financial data. The objectives of the study are to analyze the vulnerability of enterprises according to methodological criteria such as risks and calculations of the risk profile, as well as to establish the necessary measures for correcting the accounting errors based on the conclusions drawn from the analysis. The method used is prospective, financial analysis of the data taken from the financial statements of the companies included in the sample, dynamic for a period of 6 years (2011–2016). Based on the method used, a risk model has been conceptualized to identify the vulnerabilities and risks reported in the financial statements and to define a company risk profile based on which error correction measures can be adopted. Considering the amplitude of the necessary check-ups and the methodology of the imposed accounting treatments, we believe that the topic addressed is a real area of interest for the professional accountants because it organizes the application procedures and limits the impact of errors on the quality of financial reporting in Romania.

Deterministic QRA Model and Implementation Experience via an Integrity Management Software Tool

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jane Dawson ◽  
Iain Colquhoun ◽  
Inessa Yablonskikh ◽  
Russell Wenz ◽  
Tuan Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Geographical Information Systems ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Software Tool ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Failure Rates ◽  
Assessment Practice ◽  
Integrity Management

Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management tends to use semi-quantitative index-based or model-based methodologies. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high-risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability-based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provide greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach to suit the operator’s data availability and quality, and analysis needs. The paper also discusses experiences of implementing this type of risk model in Pipeline Integrity Management System (PIMS) software and the use of and integration of data via existing pipeline geographical information systems (GIS).

Complete Integrity Assessment of a Non-Piggable Multi-Diameter Cross Country Pipeline in a Network Shared by Multiple Electrically Continuous Parallel Pipelines

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amit Mishra ◽  
Saurabh Vats ◽  
Carlos A. Palacios T. ◽  
Himanshu Joshi ◽  
Ishan Khurana
Keyword(s):  
Stress Corrosion ◽  
Stress Corrosion Cracking ◽  
Accurate Data ◽  
Internal Corrosion ◽  
Integrity Assessment ◽  
Direct Assessment ◽  
Integrity Management ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
External Corrosion

Abstract A complete Pipeline Integrity Management System is the need of the hour. Apart from keeping in mind the enormous environment concerns in this rapidly dwindling era of hydrocarbons, a successful pipeline owner always strives to profitably operate their precious assets. To operate a pipeline efficiently, a plan is required to maintain its health and increase the remaining life. Various types of pipelines pose various problems which the owner needs to resolve systematically and with a well-ordered approach. A similar challenge was faced by a refinery in India. The refinery has a design capacity to process 15 MMTPA of crude per annum. The imports and exports are carried out through the local Port Trust which is one of the deepest inner harbour on the west coast. Multiple pipelines run to and from the refinery and the port trust (approximate distance — 10 km). The subject pipeline in question currently transports Mixed Xylene (MX) from refinery to port. The pipeline has a diversified operating history with various other products being transferred in the past. However, the pipeline is used very scarcely. The problem posed by the subject pipeline was similar to what many other cross-country pipelines face — the pipeline was not piggable. Five (5) other parallel pipelines share the same right-of-way, all of which are piggable and have their integrity assessment performed via Intelligent Pigging on a planned basis. There was also a concern about collecting the most accurate data since the pipeline had not undergone an integrity assessment since its commissioning in 2001. However, it was yearly pressure tested to ensure integrity of the pipeline. Parallel pipelines pose a bigger challenge for obtaining accurate data for a particular pipeline amongst them. Keeping all this in mind, a complete integrity management was planned for the MX pipeline and thus concluded on performing a turnkey Direct Assessment (DA) program. The DA program included Internal Corrosion Direct Assessment (ICDA) to assess and manage the threats of internal corrosion, External Corrosion Direct Assessment (ECDA) for external corrosion threats and Stress Corrosion Cracking Direct Assessment (SCCDA) for determining susceptibility towards the threat of stress corrosion cracking on the pipeline. Utilization of latest technologies helped in adapting and overcoming the multiple problems faced by legacy technologies especially in difficult ROW conditions and complex pipeline networks, such as the MX pipeline. This paper provides an insight into how an operator can combine latest available technologies and deploy it in unison with the complete integrity management plan.

Developing a Full Risk Picture for Gas Pipeline Consequences

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ken E. Oliphant ◽  
David A. Joyal ◽  
Vida Meidanshahi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Model ◽  
Receptor Density ◽  
Specific Time ◽  
Gas Distribution ◽  
Location Factors ◽  
Type Distribution ◽  
Integrity Management ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Modelling Approach

Properly characterizing the consequences of pipeline incidents is a critical component of assessing pipeline risk. Previous research has shown that these consequences follow a Pareto type distribution for gas distribution, gas transmission and hazardous liquid pipelines where low probability – high consequence (LPHC) events dominate the risk picture. This behavior is driven by a combination of deterministic (e.g. pipe diameter, pressure, location factors, etc.) and random factors (e.g. receptor density at specific time of release, variable environmental factors at time of release, etc.). This paper examines how the Pareto type behavior of the consequences of pipeline incidents arises and demonstrates how this behavior can be modeled through the use of a quantitative pipeline risk model. The result is a more complete picture of pipeline risk, including insight into LPHC events. Use of the modelling approach for integrity management is discussed.

Estimating Toughness for LF and DC Welded ERW Seams

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Kiefner ◽  
Michael Rosenfeld ◽  
Peter Veloo ◽  
Troy Rovella
Keyword(s):  
Low Frequency ◽  
Bond Line ◽  
Large Database ◽  
Manufacturing Defects ◽  
Integrity Assessment ◽  
Level Of Confidence ◽  
Line Region ◽  
Management Plans ◽  
Integrity Management ◽  
Pipe Materials

Abstract ERW pipe materials, particularly those manufactured prior to 1970, have exhibited higher rates of failures from seam manufacturing defects than other types of pipe materials. Typically, the seam bond line regions of low-frequency (LF) and direct-current (DC) welded ERW pipe materials exhibit poor resistance to manufacturing defects. The toughness of the bond line region is difficult to determine, and it is likely to vary from one piece of pipe to another. Pipeline operators must address the risk of ERW seam failures as part of their integrity management plans, but it is unlikely that they will know the toughness levels in the seams of their pipelines comprised of such materials. To avoid having to know the toughness levels in the seams, a pipeline operator can utilize a hydrostatic test to verify the integrity of a vintage ERW pipeline, but there are disadvantages the main one being that the pipeline must be taken out of service. Most likely an operator will choose to use an ILI crack tool to locate ERW seam anomalies to avoid having to take the pipeline out of service. Even if the seam defects can be located, correctly sized, and classified, however, the operator may have no idea of the effective toughness that is the key to deciding whether or not a given crack has to be excavated and repaired. Presented herein are two options for improving the effectiveness of an ILI integrity assessment of a pipeline with low toughness ERW seams. • Option 1 involves assuming a conservative level of toughness. Some such levels are available in the publicly available documents. Data from a large database of ERW seam failures are used to show the effectiveness of a fixed level of toughness at identifying critical defects while minimizing unnecessary digs. • Option 2 consists of first: back-calculating the toughness levels associated with the known crack sizes and failure pressures of the defects in the database of ERW seam failures, and second: calculating the probability that each type of defect would have been correctly identified at a particular level of confidence using a particular level of toughness. Using either of these options, a pipeline operator can improve the effectiveness of an ILI-crack-tool integrity assessment of a pipeline comprised of LF or DC welded ERW seams by reducing the number of unnecessary excavations while still being able to find the critical defects with an acceptable level of confidence.

Plan of Communications and Relationship With Third Parties for the Bolivia-Brazil Pipeline Right-of-Way

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ma´rcia Cauduro
Keyword(s):  
Management Program ◽  
Third Parties ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Corporate Communications ◽  
Technical Staff ◽  
Right Of Way ◽  
Management Plans ◽  
Integrity Management ◽  
Global Statistics ◽  
The Right

Objective: This work aims to present to the Plan of Communications and Relationship with Communities implemented by TBG as a tool for the Bolivia-Brazil Pipeline integrity management. Scope: In studies carried out by the European Gas Pipeline Incident Data Group (EGIG), global statistics demonstrate that most accidents involving pipelines are caused by improper actions of third parties. The expansion of sugar cane crops and the improvements in utilities, such as telephone, electricity, water and sewage services in the cities along the pipeline have increased the number of events of interference in the right-of-way. These facts have evidenced the need for creating a Plan of Communications and Relationship with landowners and neighboring communities to assure the continuous monitoring of the Bolivia-Brazil Pipeline right-of-way. The Plan of Communications and Relationship with Communities is designed to reduce the risk of accidents caused by the improper action of third parties. The strategy of action is focused on strengthening the relationships among the right-of-way technical staff, TBG subcontractors, and other publics affected by the pipeline. It also encourages the use of the toll-free Gas Hotline (0800 026 0400) - TBG main communication channel with communities. The intensive publicity targeted at specific audiences ensures that local populations and other relevant publics raise their awareness on the importance of preserving the right-of-way, and the precautions that must be taken in their neighborhoods, mainly in cases of interferences, such as urban improvement projects and farming activities by keeping permanent contact with TBG through the Gas Hotline. This work will also present the interfaces among the right-of-way technical staff, the corporate communications team, and specific target audiences; communication resources, guidelines, technical training programs, Gas Hotline monitoring and management plans, indicators of services provided to the communities and landowners, and the results of the Gas Pipeline Management Program.

Resilient System Design Using Cost-Risk Analysis With Functional Models

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elham Keshavarzi ◽  
Matthew McIntire ◽  
Kai Goebel ◽  
Irem Y. Tumer ◽  
Christopher Hoyle
Keyword(s):  
Risk Model ◽  
Functional Model ◽  
Preference Ranking ◽  
Failure Behavior ◽  
Failure Path ◽  
Functional Models ◽  
Failure Propagation ◽  
Potential Failure ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Cost Risk

This paper presents a framework to compare the resiliency of different designs during the conceptual design, when information about implementation details is unavailable. We apply the Inherent Behavioral Functional Model (IBFM) tool to develop an initial functional model for a system and simulate the failure behavior. The simulated failure scenarios provide us the information on the unique failure propagation paths and the end state/final behavior of the system assigned to each failure. Each failure path is caused by injecting one or multiple simultaneous faults into the functional model. Within this framework, we generate a population of functional models from a baseline seed model, and evaluate its potential failure scenarios. We also develop a cost-risk model to compare resiliency of different designs, and produce a preference ranking. select the most resilient one, based upon the cost-risk objective. The risk is calculated based on the probability of having an undesired end state for each design, and a consequential cost is assigned to each failure to quantify the cost-risk for a given design. In this paper, we implement and demonstrate the proposed method on the design of a resilient mono-propellant system.

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