Resilient System Design Using Cost-Risk Analysis With Functional Models

Author(s):  
Elham Keshavarzi ◽  
Matthew McIntire ◽  
Kai Goebel ◽  
Irem Y. Tumer ◽  
Christopher Hoyle

This paper presents a framework to compare the resiliency of different designs during the conceptual design, when information about implementation details is unavailable. We apply the Inherent Behavioral Functional Model (IBFM) tool to develop an initial functional model for a system and simulate the failure behavior. The simulated failure scenarios provide us the information on the unique failure propagation paths and the end state/final behavior of the system assigned to each failure. Each failure path is caused by injecting one or multiple simultaneous faults into the functional model. Within this framework, we generate a population of functional models from a baseline seed model, and evaluate its potential failure scenarios. We also develop a cost-risk model to compare resiliency of different designs, and produce a preference ranking. select the most resilient one, based upon the cost-risk objective. The risk is calculated based on the probability of having an undesired end state for each design, and a consequential cost is assigned to each failure to quantify the cost-risk for a given design. In this paper, we implement and demonstrate the proposed method on the design of a resilient mono-propellant system.

Author(s):  
Matthew G. McIntire ◽  
Elham Keshavarzi ◽  
Irem Y. Tumer ◽  
Christopher Hoyle

This paper represents a step toward a more complete frame-work of safety analysis early in the design process, specifically during functional modeling. This would be especially useful when designing in a new domain, where many functions have yet to be solved, or for a problem where the functional architecture space is large. In order to effectively analyze the inherent safety of a design only described by its functions and flows, we require some way to simulate it. As an already-available function failure reasoning tool, Function Failure Identification and Propagation (FFIP) utilizes two distinct system models: a behavioral model, and a functional model. The behavioral model simulates system component behavior, and FFIP maps specific component behaviors to functions in the functional model. We have created a new function-failure reasoning method which generalizes failure behavior directly to functions, by which the engineer can create functional models to simulate the functional failure propagations a system may experience early in the design process without a separate behavioral model. We give each basis-defined function-flow element a pre-defined behavior consisting of nominal and failure operational modes, and the resultant effect each mode has on its functions connected flows. Flows are represented by a two-variable object reminiscent of a bond from bond graphs: the state of each flow is represented by an effort variable and a flow-rate variable. The functional model may be thought of as a bond graph where each functional element is a state machine. Users can quickly describe functional models with consistent behavior by constructing their models as Python NetworkX graph objects, so that they may quickly model multiple functional architectures of their proposed system. We are implementing the method in Python to be used in conjunction with other function-failure analysis tools. We also introduce a new method for the inclusion of time in a state machine model, so that dynamic systems may be modeled as fast-evaluating state machines. State machines have no inherent representation of time, while physics-based models simulate along repetitive time steps. We use a more middle-ground pseudo time approach. State transitions may impose a time delay once all of their connected flow conditions are met. Once the entire system model has reached steady state in a timeless sense, the clock is advanced all at once to the first time at which a reported delay is ended. Simulation then resumes in the timeless sense. We seek to demonstrate this modeling method on an electrical power system functional model used in previous FFIP studies, in order to compare the failure scenario results of an exhaustive fault combination experiment with similar results using the FFIP method.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 211
Author(s):  
Iryna Yanenkova ◽  
Yuliia Nehoda ◽  
Svetlana Drobyazko ◽  
Andrii Zavhorodnii ◽  
Lyudmyla Berezovska

This article deals with the issue of managing bank credit risk using a cost risk model. Modeling of bank credit risk management was proposed based on neural-cell technologies, which expand the possibilities of modeling complex objects and processes and provide high reliability of credit risk determination. The purpose of the article is to improve and develop methodical support and practical recommendations for reducing the level of risk based on the value-at-risk (VaR) methodology and its subsequent combination with methods of fuzzy programming and symbiotic methodical support. The model makes it possible to create decision support subsystems for nonperforming loan management based on the neuro-fuzzy approach. For this paper, economic and mathematical tools (based on the VaR methodology) were used, which made it possible to analyze and forecast the dynamics of overdue payment; assess the quality of the credit portfolio of the bank; determine possible trends in bank development. A scientific and practical approach is taken to assess and forecast the degree of credit problematicity by qualitative criteria using a mathematical model based on a fuzzy technology, which can forecast the increased risk of loan default at an early stage in the process of monitoring the loan portfolio and model forecasting changes in the degree of credit problematicity on change of indicators. A methodology is proposed for the analysis and forecasting of indicators of troubled loan debt, which should be implemented as software and included in the decision support system during the process of monitoring the risk of the bank’s credit portfolio.


Author(s):  
Daniel Krus ◽  
Katie Grantham Lough

When designing a product, the earlier the potential risks can be identified, the more costs can be saved, as it is easier to modify a design in its early stages. Several methods exist to analyze the risk in a system, but all require a mature design. However, by applying the concept of “common interfaces” to a functional model and utilizing a historical knowledge base, it is possible to analyze chains of failures during the conceptual phase of product design. This paper presents a method based on these “common interfaces” to be used in conjunction with other methods such as Risk in Early Design in order to allow a more complete risk analysis during the conceptual design phase. Finally, application of this method is demonstrated in a design setting by applying it to a thermal control subsystem.


2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 403-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Önder Ökmen ◽  
Ahmet Öztaş

Purpose – Actual costs frequently deviate from the estimated costs in either favorable or adverse direction in construction projects. Conventional cost evaluation methods do not take the uncertainty and correlation effects into account. In this regard, a simulation-based cost risk analysis model, the Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model, previously has been proposed to evaluate the uncertainty effect on construction costs in case of correlated costs and correlated risk-factors. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the detailed evaluation of the Cost Risk Analysis Model through scenario and sensitivity analyses. Design/methodology/approach – The evaluation process consists of three scenarios with three sensitivity analyses in each and 28 simulations in total. During applications, the model’s important parameter called the mean proportion coefficient is modified and the user-dependent variables like the risk-factor influence degrees are changed to observe the response of the model to these modifications and to examine the indirect, two-sided and qualitative correlation capturing algorithm of the model. Monte Carlo Simulation is also applied on the same data to compare the results. Findings – The findings have shown that the Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model is capable of capturing the correlation between the costs and between the risk-factors, and operates in accordance with the theoretical expectancies. Originality/value – Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model can be preferred as a reliable and practical method by the professionals of the construction sector thanks to its detailed evaluation introduced in this paper.


2021 ◽  
Vol 133 ◽  
pp. 15-26
Author(s):  
Paweł Drózd ◽  
Adam Rosiński

The paper presents the issues of railway traffic control devices testing and focuses on European Train Control System (ETCS) devices widely implemented in railways. The functions of the ETCS system, principles of operation are described. The basic telegrams transmitted in the track-to-train relation are listed. The process of designing and verifying the implemented data and what parameters are checked at the stage of field tests using the locomotive is briefly described. The functional model of the SRK devices, including ETCS elements, was presented, and the close relationship between the base layer of the railway traffic control devices and the ETCS was shown. Equipment testing reduces the availability of the rail network, engages staff, and generates costs. A test generation method is presented to minimize the impact. Two indicators are proposed for reducing the set of checks, the cost of checking and the information effectiveness. The cost of checking due to the problematic estimate is generalized, divided into three groups taking into account the difficulty and resource consumption of bringing the devices to the initial state and their operation according to the test. Therefore, the obtained set of checks is suboptimal and ensures complete coverage of the functions with tests, which is essential when testing devices. The tests are carried out using available setting commands and the implementation of tasks - entry and exit routes at the station. The proposed method is universal and can be applied to any railway traffic control device, regardless of the manufacturing technology. It is a non-invasive method in the structure of the tested devices and does not require additional hardware resources.


Author(s):  
Larry C. Decker

Recent efforts to develop a consistent approach to understanding the risk associated with operating a cross country pipeline have focused primarily on the pipe itself. Integrity management plans often include a prioritized risk profile that all but ignores the specific risks associated with operating tank farms, terminals, pumps and compression. This paper outlines a detailed logical approach that can be utilized to evaluate the relative safety, environmental and cost risk associated with operating diverse types of equipment within a pipeline station. Topics covered include the basic objectives of a facility risk model while providing the detail (granulation) necessary to continuously improve. A specific methodology is suggested as a systematic tactic to make an “apples to apples” comparison of diverse stations, lines and types of equipment, from a risk standpoint.


Author(s):  
J.S. Linsey ◽  
K.L. Wood ◽  
A.B. Markman

AbstractDesign by analogy is a powerful part of the design process across the wide variety of modalities used by designers such as linguistic descriptions, sketches, and diagrams. We need tools to support people's ability to find and use analogies. A deeper understanding of the cognitive mechanisms underlying design and analogy is a crucial step in developing these tools. This paper presents an experiment that explores the effects of representation within the modality of sketching, the effects of functional models, and the retrieval and use of analogies. We find that the level of abstraction for the representation of prior knowledge and the representation of a current design problem both affect people's ability to retrieve and use analogous solutions. A general semantic description in memory facilitates retrieval of that prior knowledge. The ability to find and use an analogy is also facilitated by having an appropriate functional model of the problem. These studies result in a number of important implications for the development of tools to support design by analogy. Foremost among these implications is the ability to provide multiple representations of design problems by which designers may reason across, where the verb construct in the English language is a preferred mode for these representations.


2003 ◽  
Vol 125 (4) ◽  
pp. 682-693 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark A. Kurfman ◽  
Michael E. Stock ◽  
Robert B. Stone ◽  
Jagan Rajan ◽  
Kristin L. Wood

This paper presents the results of research attempts to substantiate repeatability and uniqueness claims of a functional model derivation method following a hypothesis generation and testing procedure outlined in design research literature. Three experiments are constructed and carried out with a participant pool that possesses a range of engineering design skill levels. The experiments test the utility of a functional model derivation method to produce repeatable functional models for a given product among different designers. In addition to this, uniqueness of the functional models produced by the participants is examined. Results indicate the method enhances repeatability and leads designers toward a unique functional model of a product. Shortcomings of the method and opportunities for improvement are also identified.


Author(s):  
Ananya Nandy ◽  
Andy Dong ◽  
Kosa Goucher-Lambert

Abstract In order to retrieve analogous designs for design-by-analogy, computational systems require the calculation of similarity between the target design and a repository of source designs. Representing designs as functional abstractions can support designers in practicing design-by-analogy by minimizing fixation on surface-level similarities. In addition, when a design is represented by a functional model using a function-flow format, many measures are available to determine functional similarity. In most current function-based design-by-analogy systems, the functions are represented as vectors and measures like cosine similarity are used to retrieve analogous designs. However, it is hypothesized that changing the similarity measure can significantly change the examples that are retrieved. In this paper, several similarity measures are empirically tested across a set of functional models of energy harvesting products. In addition, the paper explores representing the functional models as networks to find functionally similar designs using graph similarity measures. Surprisingly, the types of designs that are considered similar by vector-based and one of the graph similarity measures are found to vary significantly. Even among a set of functional models that share known similar technology, the different measures find inconsistent degrees of similarity — some measures find the set of models to be very similar and some find them to be very dissimilar. The findings have implications on the choice of similarity metric and its effect on finding analogous designs that, in this case, have similar pairs of functions and flows in their functional models. Since literature has shown that the types of designs presented can impact their effectiveness in aiding the design process, this work intends to spur further consideration of the impact of using different similarity measures when assessing design similarity computationally.


Author(s):  
Robert L. Nagel ◽  
Matt R. Bohm ◽  
Julie S. Linsey

The consideration of function is prevalent across numerous domains as a technique allowing complex problems to be abstracted into a form more readily solvable. In engineering design, functional models tend to be of a more generalized nature describing what a system should do based on customer needs, target specifications, objectives, and constraints. While the value of function in engineering design seems to be generally recognized, it remains a difficult concept to teach to engineering design students. In this paper, a study on the effectiveness of an algorithmic approach for teaching function and functional model generation is presented. This paper is a follow-up on to the 2012 ASME IDETC paper, An Algorithmic Approach to Teaching Functionality. This algorithmic approach uses a series of grammar rules to assemble function chains which then can be aggregated into a complete functional model. In this paper, the results of a study using the algorithmic approach at Texas A&M in a graduate level design course are presented. The analysis of the results is discussed, and the preliminary evidence shows promise toward supporting our hypothesis that the algorithmic approach has a positive impact on student learning.


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