Development and Execution of Consequence Assessment for Liquid Pipeline Facilities

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. M. Refaul Ferdous ◽  
Chris Beaudin ◽  
Anthony Payoe ◽  
Lily Li
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Public Safety ◽  
Liquid Product ◽  
Quantitative Measure ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Product Release ◽  
Consequence Assessment ◽  
Qualitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Undesired Event

Risk assessment is an effective and commonly practiced process in industry, including oil and gas sector, as a basis for designing new pipeline terminals and stations and managing integrity of existing facilities. A holistic risk assessment method, which could be qualitative or quantitative, includes both the likelihood and consequence assessments of an undesired event. Prior to 2015, Enbridge Pipelines employed a qualitative risk assessment algorithm to assess the likelihood and consequence of a failure of liquids pipeline facilities. Over the past decade Enbridge has identified a number of shortcomings with the qualitative approach, necessitating the development and use of Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) to support consistency and defensibility in risk-informed decision making. A QRA requires rigorous quantitative algorithms to measure public and environmental safety, and potential business consequences of an undesired event at a facility. While significant literature has been produced, and considerable effort has been expended to quantify the potential impacts of a flammable product release on public safety, very limited work has been done on the quantitative measurement of environment related impacts. In particular, limited research has been successful in aggregating environmental consequences, public safety and business consequences to estimate the total consequence of a liquid hydrocarbon release within a pipeline facility. The consequence assessment of an unwanted event conducted through QRA can be combined with the associated likelihood to provide a quantitative measure of risk. This risk level may be used to support organizations in making risk informed decisions and in analyzing and treating facility risks, specifically in the: • Identification of top risk facilities and high consequence functional areas; • Identification of assets posing the most risk and worst case consequences; • Understanding of system reliability risk and opportunities to optimize facility operation; • Prioritization of facility maintenance projects in the capital and operating budget processes; • Supporting regulatory requirements and expectations; • Presentation of risk down to the equipment or component level; and • Understanding of residual risk and achieved risk reduction. This paper describes the development of a consequence model that monetizes the quantitative measure of public and environment safety, and potential business losses for a liquid product release at pipeline facilities. The proposed model characterizes the severity of impact of released product, expressed in dollars per event, as a function of system volume, proximity and category of receptors, asset location, and available controls.

scholarly journals Biological risk assessment: A challenge for occupational health and safety practitioners during the COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) Pandemic

Work ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Carlos Carvalhais ◽  
Micaela Querido ◽  
Cristiana C. Pereira ◽  
Joana Santos
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Occupational Safety ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Occupational Safety And Health ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Biological Risk ◽  
Occupational Risks ◽  
Qualitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Safety And Health ◽  
Medium Risk

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 global pandemic brought several challenges to occupational safety and health practice. One of these is the need to (re)assess the occupational risks, particularly, biological risks. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this work is to promote guidance to occupational safety and health practitioners when conducting a biological risk assessment in this context. METHODS: The main steps of the biological risk assessment are explained with some inputs regarding the novelty posed by SARS-CoV-2 and an example of a qualitative risk assessment method is presented. Also, its application to two different activities was exemplified. RESULTS: In both cases, the assessment considered that vulnerable workers were working from home or in medical leave. The results showed low or medium risk level for the assessed tasks. For medium risk level, additional controls are advised, such maintain social distancing, sanitize instruments/equipment before use, use proper and well-maintained PPE (when applicable), and promote awareness sessions to spread good practices at work. Employers must be aware of their obligations regarding biological risk assessment and OSH practitioners must be prepared to screen and link the abundance of scientific evidence generated following the outbreak, with the technical practice. CONCLUSIONS: This paper could be an important contribution to OSH practice since it highlights the need to (re)assess occupational risks, especially biological risk, to ensure a safe return to work, providing technical guidance.

scholarly journals Public Safety Risk Assessment of Power Investment Project Based on Fuzzy Set and DS Evidence Theory

2020 ◽  
Vol 143 ◽  
pp. 02009
Author(s):  
Tai-hua Yang ◽  
Jing Qin ◽  
Zhi-xiang Li
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fuzzy Set ◽  
Public Safety ◽  
Evidence Theory ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Public Security ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Safety Risk ◽  
Assessment Index

In recent years, the international situation has become more and more complex, and the regional conflicts have been escalating, and the risks of overseas public security have been increasing. Based on the four types of public security events, a public safety risk assessment index system of "one belt and one road" electric power investment project is established. Combining the Bayesian network model, and using fuzzy set and DS evidence theory, the public security risk level of the “Belt and Road” countries can be this method has been effectively verified and put forward countermeasures by an example.

scholarly journals Determining the Risk Level of Heavy Rain Damage by Region in South Korea

Water ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 219
Author(s):  
Jongsung Kim ◽  
Donghyun Kim ◽  
Myungjin Lee ◽  
Heechan Han ◽  
Hung Soo Kim
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
National Level ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Disaster Prevention ◽  
Qualitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Regional Risk

For risk assessment, two methods, quantitative risk assessment and qualitative risk assessment, are used. In this study, we identified the regional risk level for a disaster-prevention plan for an overall area at the national level using qualitative risk assessment. To overcome the limitations of previous studies, a heavy rain damage risk index (HDRI) was proposed by clarifying the framework and using the indicator selection principle. Using historical damage data, we also carried out hierarchical cluster analysis to identify the major damage types that were not considered in previous risk-assessment studies. The result of the risk-level analysis revealed that risk levels are relatively high in some cities in South Korea where heavy rain damage occurs frequently or is severe. Five causes of damage were derived from this study—A: landslides, B: river inundation, C: poor drainage in arable areas, D: rapid water velocity, and E: inundation in urban lowlands. Finally, a prevention project was proposed considering regional risk level and damage type in this study. Our results can be used when macroscopically planning mid- to long-term disaster prevention projects.

Risk Assessment and Emergency Response of Oil Spill for Offshore Oil Activity

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 (1) ◽  
pp. 299545 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Lyu ◽  
Yong Yang ◽  
Wenpu Wei ◽  
Wei An
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Oil Spill ◽  
Oil Recovery ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Consequence Assessment ◽  
Volume Property ◽  
Oil Spill Response ◽  
Offshore Petroleum

With the greatly development in offshore gas and oil activity in China, the potential risk of oil spill attract more public attentions. In order to effectively limit the spilling incidence and bring it under control, it is necessary to establish a risk assessment model for offshore petroleum activity and prepare the oil spill response resource in an effective way. In this paper, a quantified risk assessment model, including the spill probability and consequence assessment, was developed using fuzzy comprehensive method. The spill probability assessment was established with view of the operative manual and statistic leakage/damage data of different kinds of offshore petroleum facilities and operation; the consequence assessment was proposed to several factors including the spilling volume, property of spilled oil, spilling location and the elements of spilling detection and controlling capability of operator. Based on the result from risk assessment, we can identify the comprehensive spill risk level (low, ALARP, high) and make a decision whether the response resource allocated to the site could be enough. The multiply oil spill response devices and facilities, especially the oil recovery vessel, were largely used in China and will be expand in future.

scholarly journals Pandemic Risk Assessment Model (PRAM): a mathematical modeling approach to pandemic influenza planning

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (16) ◽  
pp. 3400-3411
Author(s):  
D. C. DOVER ◽  
E. M. KIRWIN ◽  
N. HERNANDEZ-CERON ◽  
K. A. NELSON
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Pandemic Influenza ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Antiviral Treatment ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case

SUMMARYThe Pandemic Risk Assessment Model (PRAM) is a mathematical model developed to analyse two pandemic influenza control measures available to public health: antiviral treatment and immunization. PRAM is parameterized using surveillance data from Alberta, Canada during pandemic H1N1. Age structure and risk level are incorporated in the compartmental, deterministic model through a contact matrix. The model characterizes pandemic influenza scenarios by transmissibility and severity properties. Simulating a worst-case scenario similar to the 1918 pandemic with immediate stockpile release, antiviral demand is 20·3% of the population. With concurrent, effective and timely immunization strategies, antiviral demand would be significantly less. PRAM will be useful in informing policy decisions such as the size of the Alberta antiviral stockpile and can contribute to other pandemic influenza planning activities and scenario analyses.

Liquidity Gap Report for Stress Testing Structural Liquidity Risk

GIS Business ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 43-53
Author(s):  
Eugenia Schmitt
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Stress Testing ◽  
Gap Analysis ◽  
Liquidity Risk ◽  
Methodological Basis ◽  
Qualitative Risk Assessment ◽  
The Future ◽  
Liquidity Gap

The need to focus on banks funding structure and stress testing in an explicit way arose as a consequence of the crisis of past decades. Liquidity risks usually occur as a consequence of other kinds of risks, hence analysing scenarios in a prospective manner is essential for the assessment if the bank can fulfill its obligations as they come due and if its funding costs are appropriate. The structural liquidity risk and the degree of the liquidity mismatch can be measured based on the liquidity gap analysis, where expected cash-in- and outflows, divided in different time-buckets are depicted. The liquidity gap report (LGR) shows if a liquidity shortcoming appears in the future and how high is the amount a bank would have to pay, if any hedging were not possible. This paper shows how to build a comprehensive LGR which is the base for both, liquidity and wealth risk evaluation. To improve the accuracy of the forecast, the counterbalancing capacity will be incorporated into the LGR. This tool is a methodological basis for quantitative and qualitative risk assessment and stress testing.

The prospects of occupational risk management during reforms of regulatory legislation basis

2019 ◽  
pp. 39-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vadim B. Alekseev ◽  
Nina V. Zaitseva ◽  
Pavel Z. Shur
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Social Insurance ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Occupational Risk ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Federal Law ◽  
Work Safety ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Legal Principles

Despite wide legislation basis of regulating relations in work safety and workers’ health, one third of workplaces demonstrate exceeded allowable normal levels of workers’ exposure to occupational hazards and present occupational risk for health disorders.In accordance to national legislation acts, evaluation should cover factors of occupational environment and working process, and occupational risk is understood in context of mandatory social insurance. This approach has been formed due to mostly compensatory trend in legal principles of work safety in Russia by now. Implementation of new preventive concept of work safety, based on idea of risk management for workers, necessitates development of legal acts that regulate requirements to evaluation of occupational risk and its reports with consideration of changes in Federal Law on 30 March 1999 №52 FZ “On sanitary epidemiologic well-being of population”.Those acts can include Sanitary Rules and Regulations “Evaluation of occupational risk for workers’ health”, that will contain main principles of risk assessment, requirements to risk assessment, including its characteristics which can serve as a basis of categorizing the risk levels with acceptability.To standardize requirements for informing a worker on the occupational risk, the expediency is specification of sanitary rules “Notifying a worker on occupational risk”. These rules should contain requirements: to a source of data on occupational risk level at workplace, to informational content and to ways of notifying the worker. Specification and implementation of the stated documents enable to fulfil legal requirements completely on work safety — that will provide preservation and increase of efficiency in using work resources.

Risk assessment of Campylobacter species in shellfish: identifying the unknown

1997 ◽  
Vol 35 (11-12) ◽  
pp. 29-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Teunis ◽  
A. Havelaar ◽  
J. Vliegenthart ◽  
G. Roessink
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Contamination Level ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Risk Estimates ◽  
Consumption Data ◽  
Campylobacter Infection ◽  
Campylobacter Spp

Shellfish are frequently contaminated by Campylobacter spp, presumably originating from faeces from gulls feeding in the growing or relaying waters. The possible health effects of eating contaminated shellfish were estimated by quantitative risk assessment. A paucity of data was encountered necessitating many assumptions to complete the risk estimate. The level of Campylobacter spp in shellfish meat was calculated on the basis of a five-tube, single dilution MPN and was strongly season-dependent. The contamination level of mussels (<1/g) appeared to be higher than in oysters. The usual steaming process of mussels was found to completely inactivate Campylobacter spp so that risks are restricted to raw/undercooked shellfish. Consumption data were estimated on the basis of the usual size of a portion of raw shellfish and the weight of meat/individual animal. Using these data, season-dependent dose-distributions could be estimated. The dominant species in Dutch shellfish is C. lari but little is known on its infectivity for man. As a worst case assumption, it was assumed that the infectivity was similar to C. jejuni. A published dose-response model for Campylobacter-infection of volunteers is available but with considerable uncertainty in the low dose region. Using Monte Carlo simulation, risk estimates were constructed. The consumption of a single portion of raw shellfish resulted in a risk of infection of 5–20% for mussels (depending on season; 95% CI 0.01–60%). Repeated (e.g. monthly) exposures throughout a year resulted in an infection risk of 60% (95% CI 7–99%). Risks for oysters were slightly lower than for mussels. It can be concluded that, under the assumptions made, the risk of infection with Campylobacter spp by eating of raw shellfish is substantial. Quantitative risk estimates are highly demanding for the availability and quality of experimental data, and many research needs were identified.

Applying the risk principle to optimize accuracy and equity in correctional risk assessment: Results From a Simulation

2021 ◽  
pp. 0306624X2098652
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Principle ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
The Impact

As the use of risk assessments for correctional populations has grown, so has concern that these instruments exacerbate existing racial and ethnic disparities. While much of the attention arising from this concern has focused on how algorithms are designed, relatively little consideration has been given to how risk assessments are used. To this end, the present study tests whether application of the risk principle would help preserve predictive accuracy while, at the same time, mitigate disparities. Using a sample of 9,529 inmates released from Minnesota prisons who had been assessed multiple times during their confinement on a fully-automated risk assessment, this study relies on both actual and simulated data to examine the impact of program assignment decisions on changes in risk level from intake to release. The findings showed that while the risk principle was used in practice to some extent, the simulated results showed that greater adherence to the risk principle would increase reductions in risk levels and minimize the disparities observed at intake. The simulated data further revealed the most favorable outcomes would be achieved by not only applying the risk principle, but also by expanding program capacity for the higher-risk inmates in order to adequately reduce their risk.

scholarly journals Qualitative Risk Assessment of Cybersecurity and Development of Vulnerability Enhancement Plans in Consideration of Digitalized Ship

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 565
Author(s):  
Yunja Yoo ◽  
Han-Seon Park
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Improvement Plan ◽  
Qualitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Cyber Risk ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Ship Safety

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) published the Guidelines on Maritime Cyber Risk Management in 2017 to strengthen cybersecurity in consideration of digitalized ships. As part of these guidelines, the IMO recommends that each flag state should integrate and manage matters regarding cyber risk in the ship safety management system (SMS) according to the International Safety Management Code (ISM Code) before the first annual verification that takes place on or after 1 January 2021. The purpose of this paper is to identify cybersecurity risk components in the maritime sector that should be managed by the SMS in 2021 and to derive priorities for vulnerability improvement plans through itemized risk assessment. To this end, qualitative risk assessment (RA) was carried out for administrative, technical, and physical security risk components based on industry and international standards, which were additionally presented in the IMO guidelines. Based on the risk matrix from the RA analysis results, a survey on improving cybersecurity vulnerabilities in the maritime sector was conducted, and the analytic hierarchy process was used to analyze the results and derive improvement plan priority measures.

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