A Comparison of Methods for Assessing the Lifetime Reliability of a Moored FPSO

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Grime ◽  
R. S. Langley
Keyword(s):  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Design Codes ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Safety Level ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Design Storm ◽  
Current Design

Current design codes for floating offshore structures are based on measures of short-term reliability. That is, a design storm is selected via an extreme value analysis of the environmental conditions and the reliability of the vessel in that design storm is computed. Although this approach yields valuable information on the vessel motions, it does not produce a statistically rigorous assessment of the lifetime probability of failure. An alternative approach is to perform a long-term reliability analysis in which consideration is taken of all sea states potentially encountered by the vessel during the design life. Although permitted as a design approach in current design codes, the associated computational expense generally prevents its use in practice. A new efficient approach to long-term reliability analysis is presented here, the results of which are compared with a traditional short-term analysis for the surge motion of a representative moored FPSO in head seas. This serves to illustrate the failure probabilities actually embedded within current design code methods, and the way in which design methods might be adapted to achieve a specified target safety level.

The use of long-term rainfall records for augmenting historic flood series: a case study on the upper Dee, Aberdeenshire, Scotland

1987 ◽  
Vol 78 (4) ◽  
pp. 275-285 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. J. McEwen
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Historical Sources ◽  
Climatic Fluctuations ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
General Terms ◽  
Recurrence Intervals

ABSTRACTEstablishing the magnitude and frequency of floods within upland catchments on the basis of short-term gauged runoff records is crucially dependent upon the extent to which the record is truly representative. In the case of the River Dee, upstream of Crathie in Aberdeenshire, gauged discharge records are limited in length. Although the middle Dee has been gauged since 1929, the gauge within the upper catchment has only ten years of record. Thus, reliable estimates of the return intervals of extreme floods for this part of the Dee can only be obtained by using a variety of historical sources to extend the flood series.Long-term rainfall records, where available, provide a valuable independent check on the reconstructed flood series. Such rainfall records, when analysed in terms of the magnitude, frequency and duration of major events, should, in general terms, correspond with the flood series. In this paper, the recurrence interval of extreme rainfalls of varying magnitude and duration in upper Deeside is estimated by extreme value analysis of the annual maximum series. The frequency of rainfall events above varying thresholds is also assessed. The existence of climatic fluctuations giving highly variable recurrence intervals for rainfall events of the same magnitude is demonstrated. Finally, the seasonality of frequent flood-producing storms is analysed. Patterns observed within the rainfall record are compared with those previously established within the historic flood series to substantiate and augment the flood record.

scholarly journals Long-Term and Seasonal Trends in Global Wave Height Extremes Derived from ERA-5 Reanalysis Data

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 1015
Author(s):  
Alicia Takbash ◽  
Ian R. Young
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Winter Storms ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Significant Wave

A non-stationary extreme value analysis of 41 years (1979–2019) of global ERA5 (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis) significant wave height data is undertaken to investigate trends in the values of 100-year significant wave height, Hs100. The analysis shows that there has been a statistically significant increase in the value of Hs100 over large regions of the Southern Hemisphere. There have also been smaller decreases in Hs100 in the Northern Hemisphere, although the related trends are generally not statistically significant. The increases in the Southern Hemisphere are a result of an increase in either the frequency or intensity of winter storms, particularly in the Southern Ocean.

Reevaluation of Design Waves Off the Western Indian Coast Considering Climate Change

2016 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 88-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pentapati Satyavathi ◽  
Makarand C. Deo ◽  
Jyoti Kerkar ◽  
Ponnumony Vethamony
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Generalized Pareto Distribution ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Wave Data

AbstractKnowledge of design waves with long return periods forms an essential input to many engineering applications, including structural design and analysis. Such extreme or long-term waves are conventionally evaluated using observed or hindcast historical wave data. Globally, waves are expected to undergo future changes in magnitude and behavior as a result of climate change induced by global warming. Considering future climate change, this study attempts to reevaluate significant wave height (Hs) as well as average spectral wave period (Tz) with a return period of 100 years for a series of locations along the western Indian coastline. Historical waves are simulated using a numerical wave model forced by wind data extracted from the archives of the National Center for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, while future wave data are generated by a state-of-the-art Canadian general circulation model. A statistical extreme value analysis of past and projected wave data carried out with the help of the generalized Pareto distribution showed an increase in 100-year Hs and Tz along the Indian coastline, pointing out the necessity to reconsider the safety of offshore structures in the light of global warming.

Comparison of the Long-Term Trends of the Largest Waves in the Ice-Free Arctic Waters From Different Reanalysis Products

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takuji Waseda ◽  
Takehiko Nose ◽  
Adrean Webb
Keyword(s):  
Arctic Ocean ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Ship Route ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Horizontal Grid

The long-term trends of the expected largest waves in the ice-free Arctic waters from Laptev to Beaufort Seas was studied analyzing the ERA-interim reanalysis from 1979 to 2016. The analysis showed that the positive trend is largest in October and increased almost 70 cm in 38 years. For ships navigating the Northern Ship Route, it is important to know what the possible largest waves to expect during its cruise. In view of conducting the extreme value analysis, the uncertainty of the largest wave needs to be validated. However, the observation in the Arctic Ocean is limited. We, therefore, rely on the reanalysis wave products in the Arctic Ocean, whose uncertainty is yet to be determined. ERA-Interim and ERA-5 are compared in the Laptev, the East Siberian, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. The comparison is relevant as the two products differ in its horizontal grid resolution and availability of the satellite altimeter significant wave height data assimilation. During 2010–2016 when the ERA5 is available, only a small difference from ERA-Interim was detected in the mean. However, the expected largest waves in the domain tended to be large for the ERA-5, 8% normalized bias. The tendency was quite similar with a high correlation of 0.98.

Response-based extreme value analysis of moored offshore structures due to wave, wind, and current

1998 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 145-150 ◽  
Author(s):  
Atiela Incecik ◽  
John Bowers ◽  
Gill Mould ◽  
Oguz Yilmaz
Keyword(s):  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Value Analysis

Design properties of laterally loaded nailed or bolted wood joints

1988 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 633-643 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian Smith ◽  
Luke R. J. Whale ◽  
Colin Anderson ◽  
Barry O. Hilson ◽  
Peter D. Rodd
Keyword(s):  
Mechanical Properties ◽  
Key Words ◽  
Bolted Joints ◽  
Design Codes ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Limit States ◽  
Design Solutions ◽  
Reliable Knowledge ◽  
Laterally Loaded

This paper summarizes the output from a long-term project commenced in 1980 with the objective of providing reliable knowledge of the mechanical properties of nailed or bolted joints subjected to short-term lateral loadings. Motivation was the development on an international basis of probability-based partial coefficients limit states design codes for structural timberwork. Comparisons are presented between design solutions produced by applying this research and those by the use of contemporary "soft conversion" international partial coefficients limit states design codes that were calibrated from previously available data. Differences relate primarily to design of bolted joints. It is shown that there is an established acceptance in Canada of the approach adopted. Key words: wood, joints, nails, bolts, design.

Extreme Value Analyses of Dynamic Response Parameters of a Wind Tower Structure Under Short-Term Nonlinear Irregular Seastate

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo Nascimento ◽  
Luis Sagrilo ◽  
Gilberto Ellwanger
Keyword(s):  
Nonlinear Behavior ◽  
Nonlinear Effects ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Irregular Waves ◽  
Wind Loading ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Gaussian Stochastic Process ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Non Gaussian

In the assessment of marine structures in shallow waters domain it is important to take into account the nonlinear (or non-Gaussian) nature of the irregular waves when predicting short and long-term responses of such structures. Other sources of nonlinearities in the response are also present due to some nonlinear effects such as: wet-dry surface effects, wind force on dry parts of the structure, drag term in Morison hydrodynamic force equation, etc. The estimation of the characteristic short-term extreme responses requires the extreme value analysis of a non-Gaussian stochastic process. There are many approaches available in literature which can be employed, such as: Hermite-based model, Weibull-fitting model, etc. In this paper two distinct Weibull fitting models (one based on the first two and other based on the first three moments of the response peaks sample) and Hermite-based models using both conventional and linear moments (L-moments) are investigated for the prediction of extreme short-term response of mono-column wind tower installed in a water depth of 20m and subject to wave, current and wind loading. The tower responses (load effects) time-histories are obtained by means of a time-domain finite element-based program using 3-D geometric nonlinear beam elements developed for the dynamic analysis of this type of structure. In this program, the nonlinear behavior of the irregular waves is modelled by means of the second order Sharma and Dean theory [1] and the wind forces are represented by a very simplified load model based on wind velocity simulated time-series and the obstruction area of the tower and blades.

Characteristic Levels of Strongly Nonlinear Extreme Wave Load Effects

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas B. Johannessen ◽  
Øistein Hagen
Keyword(s):  
Wave Breaking ◽  
Nonlinear Problems ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Nonlinear Load ◽  
Load Effect ◽  
Strongly Nonlinear ◽  
Load Effects ◽  
Term Analysis

Offshore structures are typically required to withstand extreme and abnormal load effects with annual probabilities of occurrence of 10−2 and 10−4 respectively. For linear or weakly nonlinear problems, the load effects with the prescribed annual probabilities of occurrence are typically estimated as a relatively rare occurrence in the short term distribution of 100 year and 10 000 year seastates. For strongly nonlinear load effects, it is not given that an extreme seastate can be used reliably to estimate the characteristic load effect. The governing load may occur as an extremely rare event in a much lower seastate. In attempting to model the load effect in an extreme seastate, the short term probability level is not known nor is it known whether the physics of the wave loading is captured correctly in an extreme seastate. Examples of such strongly nonlinear load effects are slamming loads on large volume offshore structures or wave in deck loads on jacket structures subject to seabed subsidence. Similarly, for structures which are unmanned in extreme weather, the governing load effects for the manned structure will occur as extremely rare events in a relatively frequent seastate. The present paper is concerned with the long term distribution of strongly nonlinear load effects. Using a simple point estimate of the wave elevation correct to second order and a crest kinematics model which takes into account the possibility of wave breaking, the long term distribution of drag load on a column above the still water level is studied and compared with a similar loading model based on second order kinematics which does not include the effect of wave breaking. The findings illustrate the challenges listed above. Model tests are useful in quantifying strongly nonlinear load effects which cannot be calculated accurately. But only a relatively small number of seastates can be run in a model test campaign and it is not feasible to estimate short term responses far beyond the three hour 90% fractile level. Similarly, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is increasingly useful in investigating complex wave induced load effects. But only a relatively small number of wave events can be run using CFD, a long term analysis of load effects cannot in general be carried out. It appears that there is a class of nonlinear problems which require a long term analysis of the load effect in order for the annual probability of occurrence to be estimated accurately. For problems which cannot be estimated by simple analytical means, the governing wave events can be identified by long term analysis of a simple model which capture the essential physics of the problem and then analysed in detail by use of CFD or model tests.

Extreme Value Analysis of the Response of a Turret-Moored FPSO

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lui´s Volnei Sudati Sagrilo ◽  
Arvid Naess ◽  
Zhen Gao
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Coupled Analysis ◽  
System Response ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Utilization Factor ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Extreme Response

One of the standardized procedures used in the design of floating systems and their mooring and production lines is the so-called short-term design approach where the system is analyzed for some specific extreme environmental conditions. Along with this procedure, a nonlinear time-domain coupled dynamic analysis, considering the floater and its risers and mooring lines, is nowadays feasible to be employed in the design practice. One important and challenging aspect of this process is concerned with the estimation of the characteristic short-term extreme values of the system response parameters based on the sampled time-series. In this paper a common procedure used to establish these extreme values for floater system response parameters, which is based on a Weibull distribution model for the time-series peaks, is reviewed in the light of a recently proposed approach based on a general parametric model for the average conditional exceedance rate of peaks. It is shown that the former model corresponds to a particular case of the latter one. Numerical results are presented for the response parameters of a turret-moored FPSO considering a short-term coupled analysis of the whole system under an extreme environmental condition of wind, wave and current. Specifically, the extreme response of surge motion, top tension of the most loaded mooring line and DnV’s utilization factor for the most critical section of a 8″ SLWR (Steel Lazy Wave Riser) are investigated.

scholarly journals WIND WAVE FREQUENCIES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE REGION

1978 ◽  
Vol 1 (16) ◽  
pp. 3
Author(s):  
Rodney J. Sobay
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Continental Shelf ◽  
Wind Wave ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Local Wind ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Coral Sea ◽  
Wave Conditions

Australia's Coral Sea coast from Bundaberg north to Cape York has a wind wave climate that is almost unique. The coastline is afforded unparalleled protection from the 1900 km Great Barrier Reef, yet it lies in a tropical cyclone region and must expect recurrent intense wind and wave conditions. The Great Barrier Reef is a continuous chain of quite separate coral reef clusters located near the edge of the continental shelf. The separate reefs are often exposed at low tide, the inner fringe of the clusters ranges from 10 km offshore north of Cairns to 200 km offshore south of Rockhampton and the outer fringe is typically some 50 km further offshore, beyond which the ocean bed drops rapidly away. Incident wave energy from the Coral Sea is invariably dissipated on the outer edge of the Reef and wave conditions on the continental shelf can reasonably be considered due to local wind conditions. The Reef imposes an effective fetch limitations on wave generation over the continental shelf and there is, as a consequence, a moderately rapid response of wave conditions to changes in local wind conditions. A pronounced diurnal variation in the wind climate is reflected also in the wave climate and the stability of the region's tropical climate leads to frequent calm to slight sea conditions. This stability however is occasionally exploded by the generation and passage of a tropical cyclone in mid to late summer. Large waves can be generated by the intense winds of the tropical cyclone (hurricane or typhoon), often an order of magnitude greater than those in response to non-cyclonic events. The rational design of coastal structures and the rational pursuit of coastal zone management requires appropriate estimates of the frequency of occurrence of waves of various heights. Ideally such information is obtained from an extreme value analysis of long term wave records at the particular site in question. Permanent wave recording programs unfortunately have only become common practice in the present decade and wave records, if they exist at all for a particular site, are rarely long enough to allow a satisfactory extreme value analysis. It is clear, in the Australian context at least, that historical wave data alone is not yet sufficient to derive satisfactory estimates of long term wave frequencies. The alternative is system modelling. Wind is a major meteorological variable and its long term recording has been a standard meteorological practice now for over half a century.

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