Real Options Models for Maintenance Decision Making for Offshore Jacket Platforms

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandra Santa-Cruz ◽  
Ernesto Heredia-Zavoni
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Financial Options

Real options models are currently available as one of the best tools for the assessment of investment projects. This is so mainly due to the capability of the real options models to: (1) account for uncertainties in financial variables that are crucial to the investment project; and (2) quantify the value of the possibility to make a decision on whether to defer, abandon, expand or reduce the project at one or several points along time. Recently, some researchers have proposed the use of real options models for the assessment of infrastructure projects for hydrocarbon exploitation from an economics point of view. The objective of this work is to develop real options models for decision making regarding inspection, maintenance and decommissioning of offshore facilities taking into account the financial and technical aspects of the project. In all cases it is considered that at some point in the future, within the service lifetime of the structure, the decision maker will have an option to carry or not an inspection, and take or not a maintenance or decommissioning action, which will determine the structural and financial performance of the project for its remaining lifetime. The in-service times with no structural failure and the rehabilitation times are modeled as random variables. The cash flows are modeled as stochastic processes considering interruption of operation due to repairs after failure. Analytical expressions are derived for the computation of structural reliability and availability depending upon maintenance actions. An example is given for a jacket platform subjected to fatigue deterioration and damage. Simple and compound options of maintenance and decommissioning options are analyzed. The value of the project is computed by means of an approach similar to that of Black and Scholes for financial options [2]. The results are compared to those obtained under the traditional Net Present Value approach.

Maintenance Decisions for Offshore Structures Using Real Options Theory

2004 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ernesto Heredia-Zavoni ◽  
Sandra Santa-Cruz
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Offshore Structures ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Real Options Theory ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Maintenance Decisions ◽  
Options Theory

Real Options methods are currently used to assess investment projects considering: (1) the decision options that one can have along the development of the project, such as to expand it, or reduce it, or to abandon it, or to differ it, and (2) the uncertainty in some financial variables for the assessment of the economic investment. In these two regards, Real Options methods are superior to the traditional Net Present Value method. The purpose of the present paper is to establish the basis for Real Options modeling for decision making on design, inspection, maintenance, and decommissioning of offshore structures. The use of Real Options theory is sought in order to account for: (1) uncertainties in the financial variables involved in risk assessment based on expected costs, such as the economic consequences due to failure of a system; and (2) uncertainties associated with the resistance and loading of the structure for reliability assessment. An application of Real Options Theory is given in the paper for decision making on maintenance for an offshore structure. Cash flow from oil revenue is modeled as a stochastic process. Preventive and corrective maintenance is analyzed as a critical situation where the decision maker has the option to pay the costs of maintenance in order to obtain a benefit. Expressions are derived for the estimation of the value of the maintenance option; they are based on the derivation of the Black-Scholes equation for the evaluation of financial options. It is shown that the value of such project is equal to the sum of the net cash flow of the project (as with a Net Present Value evaluation) plus the value of the maintenance option. Projects with one and two decision times along the life of the structure are formulated and analyzed. Closed form solutions are obtained for such cases. An example is given in order to illustrate the differences between maintenance decisions using the Net Present Value and the Real Options method.

Real Options for the Valuation of Investment Projects

2021 ◽  
pp. 20-33
Author(s):  
Raisa Pérez-Vas
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Theoretical Framework ◽  
The Real ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
High Uncertainty

The objective of this chapter is to analyze the methodology for evaluating investment projects through real options. The limitations of traditional models based on cash flows and the current environment that presents constant changes and high uncertainty have led to a new field of research, real options. The valuation of investment projects carries inherent decision-making, where the best options for the company are analyzed, the real options providing a decision flexibility that classic models do not provide. This chapter contains the most important theoretical framework, where the beginnings of this methodology, the most important types of options, and the methodology for their evaluation are discussed, as well as two practical examples for a better understanding of this methodology.

APPLYING REAL OPTIONS AND THE MAXIMUM NPV RULE TO MARKET ENTRY/EXIT STRATEGIES

2005 ◽  
Vol 22 (01) ◽  
pp. 71-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
TYRONE T. LIN ◽  
TUNG-LI SHIH
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Growth Factors ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Market Entry ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Present Value ◽  
The Real ◽  
Real Options Approach ◽  
Complex Calculation

This study applies the real options approach to examine the maximum net present value of the market entry/exit thresholds given uncertain cash flows. The discount and growth factors are determined in the proposed entry/exit models, facilitating the complex calculation of the discount and growth rates to determine the present value of cash flow streams. Accordingly, this work successfully combines the maximum net present value method and the real options approach for decision-making by simply considering the discount and growth factors.

scholarly journals Valuation of a Company Producing and Trading Seaweed for Human Consumption: Classical Methods vs. Real Options

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 5262
Author(s):  
Raisa Pérez-Vas ◽  
Félix Puime Guillén ◽  
Joaquín Enríquez-Díaz
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Human Consumption ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Financial Valuation ◽  
Classical Models ◽  
A Company

Aquaculture is an increasingly relevant sector in the exploitation of natural resources; therefore, it is appropriate to propose various models that include the fundamental variables for its economic-financial valuation from a business point of view. The objective of this paper is to analyze different models for the valuation of investment projects in a company in the aquaculture sector in order to conclude whether there is a model that represents a better valuation. Therefore, in this study, four valuation models have been applied, three classical models (net present value, internal rate of return, and payback) and a more recent model, real options (RO) for a company producing and marketing seaweed in Galicia (region located in the northwest of Spain). The results obtained, RO (€5,527,144.04) and net present value (€5,479,659.19), conclude that the RO model estimates a higher added value by taking into account in its calculations the flexibility given by the expansion option. Future lines of research include the application of valuation models that have been applied to companies belonging to the same sector in order to compare whether the results found are similar.

Project portfolio valuation using real options

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 126-146
Author(s):  
A.B. Lanchakov ◽  
S.A. Filin ◽  
A.Zh. Yakushev
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Real Option ◽  
Project Portfolio ◽  
Risk And Uncertainty ◽  
Expected Effect ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Financial Options ◽  
Portfolio Efficiency ◽  
The Face ◽  
Effective Development

Subject. The article analyzes the expected effect of a portfolio of projects in the face of risk and uncertainty, when using real options. Objectives. The purpose is to offer a more objective formula to assess the expected impact of a portfolio of projects for real investment objects under risk and uncertainty, using real options, and provide recommendations for improving the portfolio efficiency. Methods. The study draws on methods of real options and evaluation of investment projects through the real option value, the cash flow discounting method, synthesis, and mathematical modeling. Results. We systematized the main types of real options and developed a formula for calculating the expected effect of project portfolio implementation. The said formula shows that considering the additional long-term costs embedded in a portfolio of real options, which are associated with the use of these real options, and, therefore, reducing the overall risk of projects and the entire portfolio, permit to improve the objectivity of such calculations. Conclusions. When analyzing real options that have real assets as underlying instruments, it is often impossible to apply the computational formulae for financial options, as they differ significantly. The systematization of the main types of real options helps expand the range of application of management solutions. The offered formula enables to improve the efficiency of project insurance under risk and uncertainty and to use additional opportunities for effective development of the company.

USING REAL OPTIONS IN AN INVESTMENT VALUATION AND DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (8) ◽  
pp. 43-46
Author(s):  
T. T. ADAMIYA ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Options ◽  
Financial Management ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
Traditional Assessment ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Additional Value

The current stage of global development is characterized by opportunities for investment activity, along with an instability of the economic situation and high uncertainty, dictates the need for investors and managers to make effective decisions, taking into account constantly changing conditions. An investor, while making a decision which project to accept, for the most part, uses the standard methods of financial management as a basis for forecasting and analysis. Considering fast-moving processes of technology change, as well as the conditions of market uncertainty, significant risk and agency problems, the article proposes the use of real options as an insurance (hedging) tool for investors against risks at different stages of the investment project. Risk management can be carried out through real options - the tool of flexibility in decision making. Traditional assessment methods ignore the ability to adapt internal and external changes, however management flexibility can significantly reduce risks, and therefore create additional value.

scholarly journals Analytical hierarchy process - bocr applied for the best lean project selection for production lines

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 054
Author(s):  
José Antonio De Miranda Lammoglia ◽  
Nilson Brandalise ◽  
Cecilia Toledo Hernandez
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Lean Manufacturing ◽  
Production Management ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Production Volume ◽  
Production Lines ◽  
Global Competitiveness ◽  
Investment Projects

The scenario of global competitiveness demands more and more of the organizations the search for continuous improvement. For survival, in the face of adverse market conditions, modern production management strategies are essential to make production processes increasingly efficient, lean and sustainable, minimizing losses in their production systems. In this sense, when thinking about changes in production lines, in search of improvements in their process, criteria that provide Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks (BOCR) should be considered. In this way, managers and executives should rely on tools and methods that allow them to guide their decisions in a clear way. The objective of this work is to apply a method of Decision Making with Multiple Criteria to the alternatives of investment projects in production lines in Lean Manufacturing concept. As a general result, it was possible to observe the applicability of the AHP BOCR method for the decision-making case involving several criteria and subcriteria for choosing the Lean investment project in the steel environment, the preferred alternative being the discontinuity of the production line 1 and the absorption of their respective production volume by production lines 2 and 3 through investments in them.

scholarly journals DETERMINATION OF OPTIMAL FUNDING SOURCES FROM A SET OF ALTERNATIVES

2021 ◽  
pp. 55-63
Author(s):  
N. Koshevsky
Keyword(s):  
Capital Structure ◽  
Economic Efficiency ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Practical Case ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Funding Sources ◽  
Return On Capital ◽  
The Impact

The introduction provides a brief review of the literature on methods for assessing the effectiveness of investment projects, based on which the choice of optimal sources of financing is made. In the main part of the work, various scenarios for the implementation of an investment project are disclosed: sources of financing that are alternative to the baseline scenario are attracted. In the final part of the work, the considered scenarios are assessed and conclusions are drawn.For each enterprise, improving the financial and economic efficiency of its activities is one of the priority tasks. These tasks include the need to increase the return on capital, the choice of funding sources that have a positive effect on economic efficiency. This paper examines the ways of choosing the optimal, from the point of view of the impact on economic efficiency, instruments for financing an investment project. A practical case of project financing with an assessment of the effectiveness of the implementation of an investment project is considered. To analyze the alternatives, a financial business model was developed, which allows you to quickly make changes, update performance indicators and make decisions about the required capital structure. It is concluded that the optimal capital structure with the highest NPV indicator and that when assessing the efficiency parameters, it is necessary to make an adjustment for the possible presence in the company's capital structure of funding sources that distort the comparability of the project in relation to projects without such sources (for example, budget grants).

The Weitzman Argument

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Gollier
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rate ◽  
Opportunity Cost ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Cost Of Capital ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Simple Rule ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Net Benefit ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Net Benefits

This chapter examines a model in which the exogeneous rate of return of capital is constant but random. Safe investment projects must be evaluated and implemented before this uncertainty can be fully revealed, i.e., before knowing the opportunity cost of capital. A simple rule of thumb in this context would be to compute the net present value (NPV) for each possible discount rate, and to implement the project if the expected NPV is positive. If the evaluator uses this approach, this is as if one would discount cash flows at a rate that is decreasing with maturity. This approach is implicitly based on the assumptions that the stakeholders are risk-neutral and transfer the net benefits of the project to an increase in immediate consumption. Opposite results prevail if one assumes that the net benefit is consumed at the maturity of the project.

Evaluating Foreign Direct Investment Projects

2018 ◽  
pp. 193-239
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Host Country ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Home Country ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Parent Company ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Country Level ◽  
At Home

As explained in the foregoing chapter, once the relevant cash outflows and inflows associated with a foreign direct investment project are estimated so as to calculate the net cash flows, the desirability of the investment project should then be determined in terms of its economic profitability. Therefore, in this chapter the methods widely used in evaluating investment projects are discussed and their advantages as well as shortcomings are highlighted. Later in the chapter, evaluating foreign direct investment projects from the viewpoint of the parent company is elaborated in terms of profit and/or income transferred to the home country. The same investment evaluation techniques were applied to the net cash flows transferred to the home country of the parent company. The possible income and/or dividends to be remitted to the home country of a parent company are identified and discussed so as to reflect the viewpoints of investing parent companies when planning foreign direct investments. This two-level evaluation approach is generally followed in practice to make sure that direct investments are profitable at both host and home country levels, since an investment project that is not profitable at host country level would not be profitable at home country level either or a project that is profitable at host country level may not be profitable at home country level.

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