Groundwater depletion will reduce cropping intensity in India

Groundwater depletion is becoming a global threat to food security, yet the ultimate impacts of depletion on agricultural production and the efficacy of available adaptation strategies remain poorly quantified. We use high-resolution satellite and census data from India, the world’s largest consumer of groundwater, to quantify the impacts of groundwater depletion on cropping intensity, a crucial driver of agricultural production. Our results suggest that, given current depletion trends, cropping intensity may decrease by 20% nationwide and by 68% in groundwater-depleted regions. Even if surface irrigation delivery is increased as a supply-side adaptation strategy, which is being widely promoted by the Indian government, cropping intensity will decrease, become more vulnerable to interannual rainfall variability, and become more spatially uneven. We find that groundwater and canal irrigation are not substitutable and that additional adaptation strategies will be necessary to maintain current levels of production in the face of groundwater depletion.

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Using Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnections to evaluate interannual rainfall variability over China in the Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 6.0 and Global Coupled 2.0 configurations

10.5194/gmd-2017-252 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Claudia Christine Stephan ◽

Nicholas P. Klingaman ◽

Pier Luigi Vidale ◽

Andrew G. Turner ◽

Marie-Estelle Demory ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Large Scale ◽

Climate Models ◽

Rainfall Variability ◽

Reanalysis Data ◽

Horizontal Resolution ◽

Unified Model ◽

Seasonal Precipitation ◽

Climate Simulations ◽

Interannual Rainfall Variability ◽

The Mean

Abstract. Six climate simulations of the Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 6.0 and Global Coupled 2.0 configurations are evaluated against observations and reanalysis data for their ability to simulate the mean state and year-to-year variability of precipitation over China. To analyze the sensitivity to air-sea coupling and horizontal resolution, atmosphere-only and coupled integrations at atmospheric horizontal resolutions of N96, N216 and N512 (corresponding to ~ 200, 90, and 40 km in the zonal direction at the equator, respectively) are analyzed. The mean and interannual variance of seasonal precipitation are too high in all simulations over China, but improve with finer resolution and coupling. Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) analysis is applied to simulated and observed precipitation to identify spatial patterns of temporally coherent interannual variability in seasonal precipitation. To connect these patterns to large-scale atmospheric and coupled air-sea processes, atmospheric and oceanic fields are regressed onto the corresponding seasonal-mean timeseries. All simulations reproduce the observed leading pattern of interannual rainfall variability in winter, spring and autumn; the leading pattern in summer is present in all but one simulation. However, only in two simulations are the four leading patterns associated with the observed physical mechanisms. Coupled simulations capture more observed patterns of variability and associate more of them with the correct physical mechanism, compared to atmosphere-only simulations at the same resolution. However, finer resolution does not improve the fidelity of these patterns or their associated mechanisms. This shows that evaluating climate models by only geographical distribution of mean precipitation and its interannual variance is insufficient. The EOT analysis adds knowledge about coherent variability and associated mechanisms.

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AN ARCHITECTURAL ADAPTATION STRATEGY FOR THE DYNAMICS OF THE KAHAYAN RIVER’S WATER LEVEL AT KAMPUNG PAHANDUT, PALANGKA RAYA CITY

Riset Arsitektur (RISA) ◽

10.26593/risa.v1i04.2751.379-398 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 1 (04) ◽

pp. 379-398

Author(s):

Alifi Diptya Nidikara; Giosia Pele Widjaja

Keyword(s):

Water Level ◽

River Water ◽

Adaptation Strategy ◽

Adaptation Strategies ◽

Activity Data ◽

Starting Point ◽

Data Collection Technique ◽

High Degree ◽

The City ◽

Dry And Rainy Seasons

Abstract- Kalimantan (Borneo) is famous as the island of a Pulau Seribu due to the large number of rivers that run across its cities. One of the longest is the Kahayan river that flows through the city of Palangka Raya. The river as an important aspect in Kalimantan people’s life has made it the starting point for the embryo of a city in the form of river side dwellings that keeps on developing amidst the dynamics of the Kahayan river that undergoes a high degree of change in terms of water level during the dry and rainy seasons. The issue that arises is the addition and loss of space due to the changes of the river water level. The purpose of this research is to describe the adaptation strategies used by the writer in Kampung Pahandut that is unique when compared other kampongs (villages) due to its condition of having dry and flooded streets in the dwelling area. This research is qualitative in nature, employing the narrative descriptive method. The data collection technique uses purposive sampling to collect the physical and activity data. The physical and activity data were gained through a survey of the research object as well as picture taking, field observation, as well as the medium ofinterviews conducted with the Kampung Pahandut villagers. The data was then processed by classifying the numerous changes that had happened in both physical and activity-related terms as well as analyzing and concluding the adaptation strategies. It was found that in Kampung Pahandut there were both physical and activity-related changes as efforts to accommodate its people to enable them to survive the dry and flooding condition due to the changes of the river water level. Within these efforts there was also architectural adaptation based on the study consisting of three adaptation strategies, namely: being adjustable, refittable, and movable. Keywords: architectural adaptation, changes in water level, Kahayan River, Kampung Pahandut

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A Note on Rainfall Variability and Trends in Nigeria: Implications for Agricultural Production*

Studies in Microeconomics ◽

10.1177/23210222211051472 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 232102222110514

Author(s):

Kolawole Ogundari ◽

Adebola Abimbola Ademuwagun ◽

Ogechukwu Appah

Keyword(s):

Food Security ◽

Coefficient Of Variation ◽

Agricultural Production ◽

Hypothesis Test ◽

Rainfall Variability ◽

Climatic Variability ◽

Least Square ◽

Annual Rainfall ◽

Average Annual Rainfall ◽

Over Time

The climatic change crisis has led to a renewed interest in understanding the dynamic of climatic variability over time. This is because rainfall variability in response to climate change poses a severe threat to global food security and agricultural production in general. As a result of this, the study investigates the convergence of rainfall variability in Nigeria. We use historical climate data on annual rainfall collected from meteorological stations across 12 states and covering 1992–2013. This gives rise to a balanced panel data of 12 states and 20 periods, which yields 240 observations. The study used a sigma convergence hypothesis test estimated using ordinary least square, fixed-effect and feasible generalized least square models. The coefficient of variation is taken as a measure of rainfall variability in the study. The results showed a negative (declining) linear correlation between rainfall’s coefficient of variation and data year. This means that rainfall variability decreased over time. This indicates evidence of convergence of rainfall, which means states with lower average annual rainfall are catching up on states with higher average annual rainfall over time. And, from the agricultural production standpoint, this result shows that the potential threat of rainfall variability to food security is not severe. In addition, it indicates a decrease in risk and uncertainty in food crop production associated with rainfall variability. JEL Classifications: O13, O55, Q10, Q54

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Issues of Climate Change, Impact, and Adaptation Strategies in Nigeria

Climate Change and Environmental Concerns ◽

10.4018/978-1-5225-5487-5.ch030 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 591-603

Author(s):

Nwakor Flora Ngozi ◽

Amadi C. Okey ◽

Okwusi Moses Chukwunwike ◽

Adiele Ezekiel Chinyere

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Agricultural Production ◽

Negative Impact ◽

Agricultural Practices ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Adaptation Strategy ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Post Harvest ◽

Crop Varieties ◽

The Impact

Climate change is a global problem affecting agricultural production, a good adaptation strategy for this phenomena should be sought for increase agricultural production. The study was conducted in Nigeria to assess the Impact of Climate Change on root and tuber crops production among farmers in Nigeria. Secondary data were used for the study, they were collected from NRCRI Umudike and other individual publications. The result shows that climate change had negative impact on root and tubers crops production including potato. Adaptation of Agriculture to climate change in the areas of crop and animal production, post harvest activities and capacity building, divers friction of livelihood sources through the use of different farming methods and improved agricultural practices will help to reduce the impact of climate change. Examples are establishment of forestry, generation of improved and disease resistance crop varieties addition of value into agricultural products and post harvest activities for climate change adaptation and sustainable development.

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Modeling Adaptation Strategies against Climate Change Impacts in Integrated Rice-Wheat Agricultural Production System of Pakistan

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph17072522 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 17 (7) ◽

pp. 2522 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Muhammad Khalid Anser ◽

Tayyaba Hina ◽

Shahzad Hameed ◽

Muhammad Hamid Nasir ◽

Ishfaq Ahmad ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Production System ◽

Agricultural Production ◽

Economic Impacts ◽

Adaptation Strategies ◽

Crop Modeling ◽

Analysis Model ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Global Circulation Models ◽

Agricultural Production System

There are numerous anticipated effects of climate change (CC) on agriculture in the developing and the developed world. Pakistan is among the top ten most prone nations to CC in the world. The objective of this analysis was to quantify the economic impacts of CC on the agricultural production system and to quantify the impacts of suggested adaptation strategies at the farm level. The study was conducted in the Punjab province’s rice-wheat cropping system. For this purpose, climate modeling was carried out by using two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), i.e., RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, and five global circulation models (GCMs). The crop modeling was carried out by using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) and the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop simulation models (CSMs), which were tested on the cross-sectional data of 217 farm households collected from the seven strata in the study area. The socio-economic impacts were calculated using the Multidimensional Impact Assessment Tradeoff Analysis Model (TOA-MD). The results revealed that CC’s net economic impact using both RCPs and CSMs was negative. In both CSMs, the poverty status was higher in RCP 8.5 than in RCP 4.5. The adaptation package showed positive results in poverty reduction and improvement in the livelihood conditions of the agricultural households. The adoption rate for DSSAT was about 78%, and for APSIM, it was about 68%. The adaptation benefits observed in DSSAT were higher than in APSIM. The results showed that the suggested adaptations could have a significant impact on the resilience of the atmospheric changes. Therefore, without these adaptation measures, i.e., increase in sowing density, improved cultivars, increase in nitrogen use, and fertigation, there would be negative impacts of CC that would capitalize on livelihood and food security in the study area.

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Farmers’ Perceptions on Climate Variability and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in Cinzana, Mali

Journal of Agricultural Studies ◽

10.5296/jas.v4i3.9331 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 4 (3) ◽

pp. 13 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Touré Halimatou ◽

Zampaligre Nouhoun ◽

Traoré Kalifa ◽

Kyei-Baffour Nicholas

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Variability ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Rainfall Variability ◽

Adaptation Strategies ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Farm Size ◽

Annual Rainfall ◽

Sub Saharan ◽

Future Economic Development

Several studies predict that climate change will highly affect the African continent. These changes in climate and climate variability may be challenging issues for future economic development of the continent in general, and particularly in the region of sub Saharan Africa. Offering a case study of Sahelian zone of Mali in the present study aimed to understand farmers’ perceptions of climate variability and change and to evaluate adaptation options used by farmers in the Cinzana commune of Mali. One hundred and nineteen farmers were interviewed using a questionnaire designed with six sections. The result showed that all farmers interviewed were aware of climate change and climate variability. The Farmers perceived a decrease in annual rainfall variability and an increase of temperature as main factors of climate change and climate variability. The observed meteorological data, showed a decrease of precipitation distribution during the last 14 years of which was observed by farmers. Several strategies such as selling animals, use of improved crop varieties, new activities (outside agriculture) and credit were the commonly preferred adaptation strategies to deal with climate change and variability. Factors surveyed, age, gender, education, household size, farm size were found to be significantly correlated to self-reported to adaptation.

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Cereal Production Trends under Climate Change: Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Southern Africa

Agriculture ◽

10.3390/agriculture9020030 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (2) ◽

pp. 30 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Luxon Nhamo ◽

Greenwell Mathcaya ◽

Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi ◽

Sibusiso Nhlengethwa ◽

Charles Nhemachena ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Food Security ◽

Southern Africa ◽

Crop Production ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Rainfall Variability ◽

International Aid ◽

Adaptation Strategies ◽

Irrigated Agriculture ◽

Cereal Production ◽

The Impact

The increasing frequency and intensity of droughts and floods, coupled with increasing temperatures and declining rainfall totals, are exacerbating existing vulnerabilities in southern Africa. Agriculture is the most affected sector as 95% of cultivated area is rainfed. This review addressed trends in moisture stress and the impacts on crop production, highlighting adaptation possible strategies to ensure food security in southern Africa. Notable changes in rainfall patterns and deficiencies in soil moisture are estimated and discussed, as well as the impact of rainfall variability on crop production and proposed adaptation strategies in agriculture. Climate moisture index (CMI) was used to assess aridity levels. Southern Africa is described as a climate hotspot due to increasing aridity, low adaptive capacity, underdevelopment and marginalisation. Although crop yields have been increasing due to increases in irrigated area and use of improved seed varieties, they have not been able to meet the food requirements of a growing population, compromising regional food security targets. Most countries in the region depend on international aid to supplement yield deficits. The recurrence of droughts caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continue devastating the region, affecting livelihoods, economies and the environment. An example is the 2015/16 ENSO drought that caused the region to call for international aid to feed about 40 million people. In spite of the water scarcity challenges, cereal production continues to increase steadily due to increased investment in irrigated agriculture and improved crop varieties. Given the current and future vulnerability of the agriculture sector in southern Africa, proactive adaptation interventions are important to help farming communities develop resilient systems to adapt to the changes and variability in climate and other stressors.

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Spatial variation of groundwater response to multiple drivers in a depleting alluvial aquifer system, northwestern India

Progress in Physical Geography Earth and Environment ◽

10.1177/0309133319871941 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 44 (1) ◽

pp. 94-119 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Wout M van Dijk ◽

Alexander L Densmore ◽

Christopher R Jackson ◽

Jonathan D Mackay ◽

Suneel K Joshi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Groundwater Level ◽

Potential Evapotranspiration ◽

Groundwater Resources ◽

Alluvial Aquifer ◽

Groundwater Depletion ◽

Impulse Response Functions ◽

Canal Irrigation ◽

Geological Heterogeneity ◽

Aquifer System ◽

Northwestern India

Unsustainable exploitation of groundwater in northwestern India has led to extreme but spatially variable depletion of the alluvial aquifer system in the region. Mitigation and management of groundwater resources require an understanding of the drivers behind the pattern and magnitude of groundwater depletion, but a regional perspective on these drivers has been lacking. The objectives of this study are to (1) understand the extent to which the observed pattern of groundwater level change can be explained by the drivers of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, abstraction, and canal irrigation, and (2) understand how the impacts of these drivers may vary depending on the underlying geological heterogeneity of the system. We used a transfer function-noise (TFN) time series approach to quantify the effect of the various driver components in the period 1974–2010, based on predefined impulse response functions ( θ). The dynamic response to abstraction, summarized by the zeroth moment of the response M0, is spatially variable but is generally large across the proximal and middle parts of the study area, particularly where abstraction is high but alluvial aquifer bodies are less abundant. In contrast, the precipitation response is rapid and fairly uniform across the study area. At larger distances from the Himalayan front, observed groundwater level rise can be explained predominantly by canal irrigation. We conclude that the geological heterogeneity of the aquifer system, which is imposed by the geomorphic setting, affects the response of the aquifer system to the imposed drivers. This heterogeneity thus provides a useful framework that can guide mitigation efforts; for example, efforts to decrease abstraction rates should be focused on areas with thinner and less abundant aquifer bodies.

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Perceived Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategy of Indigenous Community (Chepangs) in Rural Mid-hills of Nepal

Forestry: Journal of Institute of Forestry, Nepal ◽

10.3126/forestry.v16i0.28353 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 16 ◽

pp. 48-61 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Pragya Khanal ◽

Bishnu H. Wagle ◽

Suraj Upadhaya ◽

Prayash Ghimire ◽

Suman Acharya

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Rural Areas ◽

Local Level ◽

National Level ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Adaptation Strategy ◽

Adaptation Strategies ◽

Marginalized Communities ◽

Indigenous Group ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Climate change is projected to increase in vulnerable areas of the world, and marginalized communities residing in rural areas are more vulnerable to the change. The perceptions of climate change and adaptation strategies made by such communities are important considerations in the design of adaptation strategies by policy-makers. We examined the most marginalized indigenous group "Chepang" communities' perceptions towards this change, variability, and their attitudes to adaptations and adapted coping measures in mid-hills of Nepal. We interviewed 155 individuals from two Chepang communities, namely, Shaktikhor and Siddhi in Chitwan district of Nepal. We also analyzed biophysical data to assess the variability. The findings showed that the Chepang community has experienced significant impacts of climate change and variability. They attributed crop disease, insect infestation, human health problem, and weather-related disaster as the impacts of climate change. Strategies they have adopted in response to the change are the use of intense fertilizers in farmland, hybrid seeds cultivation, crop diversification, etc. Local level and national level adaptation policies need to be designed and implemented as soon as possible to help climate vulnerable communities like Chepangs to cope against the impacts of climate change.

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