AbstractObjectivesUnited States government scientists estimate that COVID-19 may kill tens of thousands of Americans. Many of the pre-existing conditions that increase the risk of death in those with COVID-19 are the same diseases that are affected by long-term exposure to air pollution. We investigated whether long-term average exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is associated with an increased risk of COVID-19 death in the United States.DesignA nationwide, cross-sectional study using county-level data.Data sourcesCOVID-19 death counts were collected for more than 3,000 counties in the United States (representing 98% of the population) up to April 22, 2020 from Johns Hopkins University, Center for Systems Science and Engineering Coronavirus Resource Center.Main outcome measuresWe fit negative binomial mixed models using county-level COVID-19 deaths as the outcome and county-level long-term average of PM2.5 as the exposure. In the main analysis, we adjusted by 20 potential confounding factors including population size, age distribution, population density, time since the beginning of the outbreak, time since state’s issuance of stay-at-home order, hospital beds, number of individuals tested, weather, and socioeconomic and behavioral variables such as obesity and smoking. We included a random intercept by state to account for potential correlation in counties within the same state. We conducted more than 68 additional sensitivity analyses.ResultsWe found that an increase of only 1 μg/m3 in PM2.5 is associated with an 8% increase in the COVID-19 death rate (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2%, 15%). The results were statistically significant and robust to secondary and sensitivity analyses.ConclusionsA small increase in long-term exposure to PM2.5 leads to a large increase in the COVID-19 death rate. Despite the inherent limitations of the ecological study design, our results underscore the importance of continuing to enforce existing air pollution regulations to protect human health both during and after the COVID-19 crisis. The data and code are publicly available so our analyses can be updated routinely.Summary BoxWhat is already known on this topicLong-term exposure to PM2.5 is linked to many of the comorbidities that have been associated with poor prognosis and death in COVID-19 patients, including cardiovascular and lung disease.PM2.5 exposure is associated with increased risk of severe outcomes in patients with certain infectious respiratory diseases, including influenza, pneumonia, and SARS.Air pollution exposure is known to cause inflammation and cellular damage, and evidence suggests that it may suppress early immune response to infection.What this study addsThis is the first nationwide study of the relationship between historical exposure to air pollution exposure and COVID-19 death rate, relying on data from more than 3,000 counties in the United States. The results suggest that long-term exposure to PM2.5 is associated with higher COVID-19 mortality rates, after adjustment for a wide range of socioeconomic, demographic, weather, behavioral, epidemic stage, and healthcare-related confounders.This study relies entirely on publicly available data and fully reproducible, public code to facilitate continued investigation of these relationships by the broader scientific community as the COVID-19 outbreak evolves and more data become available.A small increase in long-term PM2.5 exposure was associated with a substantial increase in the county’s COVID-19 mortality rate up to April 22, 2020.
Air pollution and COVID-19 mortality in the United States: Strengths and limitations of an ecological regression analysis
