scholarly journals Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2emissions scenarios

Science ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 349 (6243) ◽  
pp. aac4722 ◽  
Author(s):  
J.-P. Gattuso ◽  
A. Magnan ◽  
R. Billé ◽  
W. W. L. Cheung ◽  
E. L. Howes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Climate Regime ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Emissions Scenario

The ocean moderates anthropogenic climate change at the cost of profound alterations of its physics, chemistry, ecology, and services. Here, we evaluate and compare the risks of impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems—and the goods and services they provide—for growing cumulative carbon emissions under two contrasting emissions scenarios. The current emissions trajectory would rapidly and significantly alter many ecosystems and the associated services on which humans heavily depend. A reduced emissions scenario—consistent with the Copenhagen Accord’s goal of a global temperature increase of less than 2°C—is much more favorable to the ocean but still substantially alters important marine ecosystems and associated goods and services. The management options to address ocean impacts narrow as the ocean warms and acidifies. Consequently, any new climate regime that fails to minimize ocean impacts would be incomplete and inadequate.

Differentiated Responsibilities On Population Explosion And Its Impact On Environment – A Corridor For The Crossing?

2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-115
Author(s):  
P.P. Sajimon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Production And Consumption ◽  
The Rich ◽  
Zero Population Growth ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Population And Environment

Climate change and disasters are fast emerging as the most significant challenges of the 21st century as global risks with impacts far beyond just the environment and implications on national security and development. As the world continues its contemporary patterns of production and consumption, the future is at immense risk. Climate Change has the potential to alter the ability of the earth’s physical and biological systems to provide goods and services essential for sustainable development. Today, a number of mainstream population and environment groups are claiming that population growth is a major cause of climate change and that lesser birth rates are the solution. If we cannot stabilize population, there is not an ecosystem on earth that we can save. If developing countries cannot stabilize their populations almost immediately, many of them face the disintegration of ecosystem. But in reality, even if we could today achieve zero population growth that would barely touch the climate problem — where we need to cut emissions by 50 to 80 percent by mid-century. Given existing income inequalities, it is inescapable that over consumption by the rich few is the key problem, rather than overpopulation of the poor many. In the absence of any commitment in the next two decades, their economies would become locked into a trajectory of elevated emissions and unsustainable development, while the cost of reversing the trend will become prohibitively high. This paper examines several outstanding issues on the interface between population and environment. Significantly, the study would come out with some policy recommendations to the policy makers.

scholarly journals Costs of Reducing Global Carbon Emissions

1993 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 27-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
John P Weyant
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Short Range ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Integral Component ◽  
Key Dimensions ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Global Carbon

Projecting the costs of reducing carbon emissions is extremely important, and exceedingly difficult. Such projections are an integral component of cost-benefit analyses of alternative policies in response to climate change. This paper first discusses the key dimensions of any projection of the cost of reducing carbon emissions. Then it discusses the projections that have been made, including long-, medium- and short-range time horizons. Finally, the conclusion summarizes what we know and don't know about the costs of controlling carbon emissions and recommends an agenda for future research.

scholarly journals Cumulative carbon as a policy framework for achieving climate stabilization

2012 ◽  
Vol 370 (1974) ◽  
pp. 4365-4379 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Damon Matthews ◽  
Susan Solomon ◽  
Raymond Pierrehumbert
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Global Temperature Change

The primary objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will avoid dangerous climate impacts. However, greenhouse gas concentration stabilization is an awkward framework within which to assess dangerous climate change on account of the significant lag between a given concentration level and the eventual equilibrium temperature change. By contrast, recent research has shown that global temperature change can be well described by a given cumulative carbon emissions budget. Here, we propose that cumulative carbon emissions represent an alternative framework that is applicable both as a tool for climate mitigation as well as for the assessment of potential climate impacts. We show first that both atmospheric CO 2 concentration at a given year and the associated temperature change are generally associated with a unique cumulative carbon emissions budget that is largely independent of the emissions scenario. The rate of global temperature change can therefore be related to first order to the rate of increase of cumulative carbon emissions. However, transient warming over the next century will also be strongly affected by emissions of shorter lived forcing agents such as aerosols and methane. Non-CO 2 emissions therefore contribute to uncertainty in the cumulative carbon budget associated with near-term temperature targets, and may suggest the need for a mitigation approach that considers separately short- and long-lived gas emissions. By contrast, long-term temperature change remains primarily associated with total cumulative carbon emissions owing to the much longer atmospheric residence time of CO 2 relative to other major climate forcing agents.

scholarly journals Transport externalities of bus stations produced by Greenhouse Gas (GHG)

2020 ◽  
Vol 167 ◽  
pp. 04001
Author(s):  
M Córdova-Suárez ◽  
E Barreno-Ávila ◽  
P Villacrés-Cevallos ◽  
O Ruíz-Robalino
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
External Costs ◽  
Cost Factor ◽  
Average Load ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Indirect Sources

It is established that the interprovincial transportation in bus terminals of the Cities such as Ambato, Riobamba, Salcedo, Latacunga and Guaranda have contributed to the build-up of external costs of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) The climate change costs are calculated by multiplying the carbon emissions by the cost factor. To quantify the GHG emissions, this study has taken into account of both the direct and indirect sources of the Greenhouse Gas Protocol (GHG), as well as the ISO 14064.1: 2006 standard. In view thereof, it was found that the 11 bus terminals of the five cities, namely Latacunga, Riobamba Salcedo, Ambato, Guaranda-which accounts for around 3225 buses, had accounted for the emissions of 25,746.8 tCO2eq, 37,404.6 tCO2eq, 8,762.7 tCO2eq, 92,364.9 tCO2eq, 31,990.3 tCO2eq, respectively. Simply, the average load of such pollution produced per vehicle was 60.8 tCO2eq. and the total emissions were 196,269.3 tCO2eq with an estimated GHG contamination cost of €27,477,702 per year.

The Counterintuitive Relationship between Globalization and Climate Change

2003 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 8-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Samuel Barkin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Effects ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Economic Globalization ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Sea Transport ◽  
Trade Routes ◽  
Anthropogenic Carbon ◽  
The Cost

Scholars and activists are concerned, sometimes simultaneously, with mitigation of anthropogenic climate change and the environmental effects of globalization. Many analysts argue that a solution to both problems is localization; increasing the costs of transportation should increase the cost of long-distance transportation, making local and regional exchange economically relatively more efficient. The argument here, however, is that dealing with climate change will have the effect of reinforcing patterns of economic globalization, at the expense of patterns of economic nationalization and continentalization. Transportation by sea has historically been, and continues to be, more fuel-efficient than transportation by land. Limiting anthropogenic carbon emissions in transportation therefore favors sea transport over land transport. Historically, patterns of trade favored global seaborne trade routes over trade within land-based regions. The model to look in understanding the effect of action on climate change on global trade pattens, therefore, is not the future proposed by the localists, it is at historical patterns.

Impact of Climate Change Mitigation On Ocean Acidification Projections

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fortunat Joos ◽  
Thomas L. Frölicher
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Ocean Acidification ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Cost Efficient ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2

Ocean acidification caused by the uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) by the ocean is an important global change problem (Kleypas et al. 1999; Caldeira and Wickett 2003; Doney et al. 2009). Ongoing ocean acidification is closely linked to global warming, as acidification and warming are primarily caused by continued anthropogenic emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel burning (Marland et al. 2008 ), land use, and land-use change (Strassmann et al. 2007). Future ocean acidification will be determined by past and future emissions of CO2 and their redistribution within the earth system and the ocean. Calculation of the potential range of ocean acidification requires consideration of both a plausible range of emissions scenarios and uncertainties in earth system responses, preferably by using results from multiple scenarios and models. The goal of this chapter is to map out the spatiotemporal evolution of ocean acidification for different metrics and for a wide range of multigas climate change emissions scenarios from the integrated assessment models (Nakićenović 2000; Van Vuuren et al. 2008b). By including emissions reduction scenarios that are among the most stringent in the current literature, this chapter explores the potential benefits of climate mitigation actions in terms of how much ocean acidification can be avoided and how much is likely to remain as a result of inertia within the energy and climate systems. The longterm impacts of carbon emissions are addressed using so-called zero-emissions commitment scenarios and pathways leading to stabilization of atmospheric CO 2. Discussion will primarily rely on results from the cost-efficient Bern2.5CC model (Plattner et al. 2008) and the comprehensive carbon cycle– climate model of the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), CSM1.4-carbon (Steinacher et al. 2009; Frölicher and Joos 2010). The magnitude of the human perturbation of the climate system is well documented by observations (Solomon e t al. 2007). Carbon emissions from human activities force the atmospheric composition, climate, and the geochemical state of the ocean towards conditions that are unique for at least the last million years (see Chapter 2).

scholarly journals Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 °C on Hydrologic Regimes in the Northeastern U.S.

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
Ridwan Siddique ◽  
Alfonso Mejia ◽  
Naoki Mizukami ◽  
Richard N. Palmer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Hydrologic Regimes ◽  
Hydrological Regimes

Regional climate change impacts show a wide range of variations under different levels of global warming. Watersheds in the northeastern region of the United States (NEUS) are projected to undergo the most severe impacts from climate change in the forms of extreme precipitation events, floods and drought, sea level rise, etc. As such, there is high possibility that hydrologic regimes in the NEUS may be altered in the future, which can be absolutely devastating for managing water resources and ecological balance across different watersheds. In this study, we present a comprehensive impact analysis using different hydrologic indicators across selected watersheds in the NEUS under different thresholds of global temperature increases (1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 °C). Precipitation and temperature projections from fourteen downscaled Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 greenhouse gas concentration pathway are used as inputs into a distributed hydrological model to obtain future streamflow conditions. Overall, the results indicate that the majority of the selected watersheds will enter a wetter regime, particularly during the months of winter, while flow conditions during late summer and fall indicate a dry future under all three thresholds of temperature increase. The estimation of time of emergence of new hydrological regimes show large uncertainties under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global temperature increases; however, most of the GCM projections show a strong consensus that new hydrological regimes may appear in the NEUS watersheds under 3.0 °C temperature increase.

scholarly journals Marginal Abatement Cost of Carbon Emissions under Different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 13693
Author(s):  
Na Liu ◽  
Fu-tie Song
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Carbon Price ◽  
Abatement Cost ◽  
Marginal Abatement Cost ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Primary Basis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Future Emissions

Future emissions scenarios have served as a primary basis for assessing climate change and formulating climate policies. To explore the impact of uncertainty in future emissions scenarios on major outcomes related to climate change, this study examines the marginal abatement cost (MAC) of carbon emissions under the latest Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) subject to the economic optimum and the 1.5 °C temperature increase constraint using the Epstein-Zin (EZ) climate model. Taking the ”Regional Rivalry” (SSP3) scenario narrative under the economic optimum as a representative case, the expected MACs per ton CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emissions in the years 2015, 2030, 2060, 2100, and 2200 are: $102.08, $84.42, $61.19, $10.71, and $0.12, respectively. In parallel, the associated expected average mitigation rates (AMRs) are 0%, 63%, 66%, 81%, and 96%, respectively. In summary, in a world developing towards regional rivalry (SSP3) or fossil-fueled development (SSP5) with high mitigation pressure, the MAC values have approximately doubled, compared with the sustainability (SSP1) and inequality (SSP4) storylines with low mitigation pressure levels. The SSP2 (Middle of the Road) shows a moderate MAC decreasing trend with moderate mitigation pressure. The results provide a carbon price benchmark for policy makers with different attitudes towards the unknown future and can be used to formulate carbon mitigation strategy to respond to specific climate goals.

scholarly journals Global and regional impacts of climate change at different levels of global temperature increase

2019 ◽  
Vol 155 (3) ◽  
pp. 377-391 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. W. Arnell ◽  
J. A. Lowe ◽  
A. J. Challinor ◽  
T. J. Osborn
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Regional Impacts ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change
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