Possible reasons for low climate-model sensitivity to increased carbon dioxide concentrations

2014 ◽  
Vol 50 (4) ◽  
pp. 350-355 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. M. Volodin
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer Kay ◽  
Jason Chalmers

<p>While the long-standing quest to constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity has resulted in intense scrutiny of the processes controlling idealized greenhouse warming, the processes controlling idealized greenhouse cooling have received less attention. Here, differences in the climate response to increased and decreased carbon dioxide concentrations are assessed in state-of-the-art fully coupled climate model experiments. One hundred and fifty years after an imposed instantaneous forcing change, surface global warming from a carbon dioxide doubling (abrupt-2xCO2, 2.43 K) is larger than the surface global cooling from a carbon dioxide halving (abrupt-0p5xCO2, 1.97 K). Both forcing and feedback differences explain these climate response differences. Multiple approaches show the radiative forcing for a carbon dioxide doubling is ~10% larger than for a carbon dioxide halving. In addition, radiative feedbacks are less negative in the doubling experiments than in the halving experiments. Specifically, less negative tropical shortwave cloud feedbacks and more positive subtropical cloud feedbacks lead to more greenhouse 2xCO2 warming than 0.5xCO2 greenhouse cooling. Motivated to directly isolate the influence of cloud feedbacks on these experiments, additional abrupt-2xCO2 and abrupt-0p5xCO2 experiments with disabled cloud-climate feedbacks were run. Comparison of these “cloud-locked” simulations with the original “cloud active” simulations shows cloud feedbacks help explain the nonlinear global surface temperature response to greenhouse warming and greenhouse cooling. Overall, these results demonstrate that both radiative forcing and radiative feedbacks are needed to explain differences in the surface climate response to increased and decreased carbon dioxide concentrations.</p>


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky ◽  
Michael E. Mann ◽  
Byron A. Steinman ◽  
Dmitry M. Volobuev

Abstract. Detecting the direction and strength of the causality signal in observed time series is becoming a popular tool for exploration of distributed systems such as Earth's climate system. Here we suggest that in addition to reproducing observed time series of climate variables within required accuracy a model should also exhibit the causality relationship between variables found in nature. Specifically, we propose a novel framework for a comprehensive analysis of climate model responses to external natural and anthropogenic forcing based on the method of conditional dispersion. As an illustration, we assess the causal relationship between anthropogenic forcing (i.e., atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration) and surface temperature anomalies. We demonstrate a strong directional causality between global temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations (meaning that carbon dioxide affects temperature stronger than temperature affects carbon dioxide) in both the observations and in (CMIP5) climate model simulated temperatures.


2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 4053-4060 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky ◽  
Michael E. Mann ◽  
Byron A. Steinman ◽  
Dmitry M. Volobuev

Abstract. Detecting the direction and strength of the causality signal in observed time series is becoming a popular tool for exploration of distributed systems such as Earth's climate system. Here, we suggest that in addition to reproducing observed time series of climate variables within required accuracy a model should also exhibit the causality relationship between variables found in nature. Specifically, we propose a novel framework for a comprehensive analysis of climate model responses to external natural and anthropogenic forcing based on the method of conditional dispersion. As an illustration, we assess the causal relationship between anthropogenic forcing (i.e., atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration) and surface temperature anomalies. We demonstrate a strong directional causality between global temperatures and carbon dioxide concentrations (meaning that carbon dioxide affects temperature more than temperature affects carbon dioxide) in both the observations and in (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5; CMIP5) climate model simulated temperatures.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Philipp de Vrese ◽  
Tobias Stacke ◽  
Jeremy Caves Rugenstein ◽  
Jason Goodman ◽  
Victor Brovkin

AbstractSimple and complex climate models suggest a hard snowball – a completely ice-covered planet – is one of the steady-states of Earth’s climate. However, a seemingly insurmountable challenge to the hard-snowball hypothesis lies in the difficulty in explaining how the planet could have exited the glaciated state within a realistic range of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Here, we use simulations with the Earth system model MPI-ESM to demonstrate that terminal deglaciation could have been triggered by high dust deposition fluxes. In these simulations, deglaciation is not initiated in the tropics, where a strong hydrological cycle constantly regenerates fresh snow at the surface, which limits the dust accumulation and snow aging, resulting in a high surface albedo. Instead, comparatively low precipitation rates in the mid-latitudes in combination with high maximum temperatures facilitate lower albedos and snow dynamics that – for extreme dust fluxes – trigger deglaciation even at present-day carbon dioxide levels.


2006 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 297 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graham Jones ◽  
Gargi Joshi ◽  
Malcolm Clark ◽  
David McConchie

Environmental Context. Carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere are rising every year by 1.5–3.0 ppm and there is now a general acceptance that increased efforts must be made to reduce industrial sources of this greenhouse gas. Carbonation of red mud wastes produced by aluminium refineries has been carried out to study the capacity of these wastes to capture carbon dioxide. Removal is very rapid, with the added carbon dioxide recorded as a large increase in bicarbonate alkalinity. Although these results can only be considered preliminary, the experiments indicate that these wastes can potentially remove up to 15 million tonnes of carbon dioxide produced in Australia per annum. Furthermore, the carbonated waste can be used in other industrial processes to add further value to these waste materials. Abstract. Carbonation of raw red mud produced by aluminium refineries and a chemically and physically neutralized red mud (Bauxsol™) has been carried out to study the capacity of these wastes to capture carbon dioxide. After only 5 min of carbonation of raw red mud, total alkalinity dropped 85%. Hydroxide alkalinity was almost totally consumed, carbonate alkalinity dropped by 88%, and bicarbonate alkalinity increased to 728 mg L–1. After 24 min carbonation, the bicarbonate alkalinity reached its maximum value of 2377 mg L–1, and hydroxide and carbonate alkalinity were virtually absent. After 30 and 60 min carbonation, bicarbonate alkalinity started to decrease slightly as the pH of the slurry increased. After 5 min carbonation of Bauxsol™, total and bicarbonate alkalinity dropped 89% and 9%, respectively. After 20 min carbonation, bicarbonate alkalinity dropped another 11%, but after 30 min carbonation bicarbonate alkalinity increased 26% to levels found in the original Bauxsol material, and pH was stable. Based on these experiments, a calculation of the amount of carbon dioxide that could be removed annually at aluminium refineries in Australia is potentially 15 million tonnes, and suggests that further studies are necessary to maximize this carbon removal process. Furthermore, carbonation produces a product, which can potentially be used in other industrial and agricultural activities to remove toxic metals and nutrients.


1978 ◽  
Vol 86 (3) ◽  
pp. 1149-1151
Author(s):  
P. M. Gramenitskii ◽  
V. A. Galichii ◽  
N. V. Petrova ◽  
N. Yu. Leont'eva

2011 ◽  
Vol 108 (1-3) ◽  
pp. 135-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan Siemens ◽  
Andreas Pacholski ◽  
Katia Heiduk ◽  
Anette Giesemann ◽  
Ulrike Schulte ◽  
...  

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (16) ◽  
pp. 3903-3931 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Schmidt ◽  
G. P. Brasseur ◽  
M. Charron ◽  
E. Manzini ◽  
M. A. Giorgetta ◽  
...  

Abstract This paper introduces the three-dimensional Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA), which treats atmospheric dynamics, radiation, and chemistry interactively for the height range from the earth’s surface to the thermosphere (approximately 250 km). It is based on the latest version of the ECHAM atmospheric general circulation model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, which is extended to include important radiative and dynamical processes of the upper atmosphere and is coupled to a chemistry module containing 48 compounds. The model is applied to study the effects of natural and anthropogenic climate forcing on the atmosphere, represented, on the one hand, by the 11-yr solar cycle and, on the other hand, by a doubling of the present-day concentration of carbon dioxide. The numerical experiments are analyzed with the focus on the effects on temperature and chemical composition in the mesopause region. Results include a temperature response to the solar cycle by 2 to 10 K in the mesopause region with the largest values occurring slightly above the summer mesopause. Ozone in the secondary maximum increases by up to 20% for solar maximum conditions. Changes in winds are in general small. In the case of a doubling of carbon dioxide the simulation indicates a cooling of the atmosphere everywhere above the tropopause but by the smallest values around the mesopause. It is shown that the temperature response up to the mesopause is strongly influenced by changes in dynamics. During Northern Hemisphere summer, dynamical processes alone would lead to an almost global warming of up to 3 K in the uppermost mesosphere.


2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (23) ◽  
pp. 5179-5182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick J. Michaels ◽  
Paul C. Knappenberger ◽  
Christopher Landsea

Abstract In a simulation of enhanced tropical cyclones in a warmer world, Knutson and Tuleya make several assumptions that are not borne out in the real world. They include an unrealistically large carbon dioxide growth rate, an overly strong relationship between sea surface temperature and hurricane intensity, and the use of a mesoscale model that has shown little to no useful skill in predicting current-day hurricane intensity. After accounting for these inaccuracies, a detectable increase in Atlantic hurricane intensity in response to growing atmospheric greenhouse gas levels during this century becomes unlikely.


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