In the CANDU nuclear reactor, pressure tubes of cold-worked Zr-2.5Nb material are used in the reactor core to contain the nuclear fuel bundles and heavy water coolant. Pressure tubes are major component of nuclear reactor, but only selected samples are periodically examined due to numerous numbers of tubes. Pressure tube material gradually pick up deuterium, as such are susceptible to a crack initiation and propagation process called delayed hydride cracking (DHC), which is the characteristic of pressure tube integrity evaluation. If cracks are not detected, such a cracking mechanism could lead to unstable rupture of the pressure tube. Up to this time, integrity evaluations are performed using conventional deterministic approaches. So it is expected that the results obtained are too conservative to perform a rational evaluation of lifetime. In this respect, a probabilistic safety assessment method is more appropriate for the assessment of overall pressure tube safety. This paper describes failure criteria for probabilistic analysis and fracture mechanics analyses of the pressure tubes in consideration of DHC. Major input parameters such as initial hydrogen concentration, the depth and aspect ratio of an initial surface crack, DHC velocity and fracture toughness are considered as probabilistic variables. Failure assessment diagram of pressure tube material is proposed and applied in the probabilistic analysis. In all the analyses, failure probabilities are calculated using the Monte Carlo simulation. As a result of analysis, conservatism of deterministic failure criteria is showed.
