scholarly journals Clinical and epidemiological indicators and spatial analysis of leprosy cases in patients under 15 years old in an endemic area of Northeast Brazil: an ecological and time series study

BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. e023420 ◽  
Author(s):  
Márcio Bezerra Santos ◽  
Allan Dantas dos Santos ◽  
Aline Silva Barreto ◽  
Mariana do Rosário Souza ◽  
Marco Aurélio de Oliveira Goes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Spatial Analysis ◽  
Physical Disability ◽  
Endemic Area ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Lower Percentage ◽  
Northeast Brazil ◽  
Time Series Study ◽  
Series Study

ObjectiveThis study aimed to analyse the clinical and epidemiological indicators, temporal trends and the spatial distribution of leprosy in patients under 15 years old in an endemic area of Northeast Brazil.DesignRegional surveillance study of all reported cases.SettingState of Sergipe, endemic area of Northeast Brazil.MethodsAn ecological and time series study was conducted, based on secondary data reported by the Brazilian Information System on Notifiable Diseases for leprosy cases diagnosed in Sergipe state (2002–2015). The analysis of temporal trends was performed using the Joinpoint Regression Programme through Poisson regression. We performed spatial analysis by Kernel estimator and Moran index.ResultsThe incidence rate was reduced from 6.29 to 3.78 cases per 100 000 inhabitants in 2002 and 2015, respectively. However, Sergipe was still classified as highly endemicity in 2015. The mean number of household contacts (HHC) examined was significantly lower than those registered. Clinical data indicated that 21.4% of the patients developed leprosy reactions, and 31.3% presented with some physical disability in the multibacillary groups. Patients diagnosed by examination within the HHC presented better indicators, such as lower percentage of leprosy reaction and physical disability. Spatial analysis showed the most risk areas distributed on the northeast and cities around the capital, Aracaju.ConclusionThe data indicate that there is a persistence of activeMyobacterium lepraetransmission and a delay in disease detection, following a pattern of high endemicity in many municipalities. The early detection by HHC examination is important to stop transmission and also to detect the cases in a less severe state.

scholarly journals Tuberculosis forecasting and temporal trends by gender and age in a high endemic city of Northeast Brazil: Are we achieving the disease elimination stage?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamilton Leandro Andrade ◽  
Luiz Arroyo ◽  
Antônio Carlos Ramos ◽  
Marcelino Neto ◽  
Melina Yamamura ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Temporal Trend ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Northeast Brazil ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Time Series Study ◽  
Gender And Age ◽  
Series Study

Abstract Objective: to describe the temporal trend of tuberculosis cases according to gender and age group and to make forecasts in an endemic municipality of northeast Brazil. Method: This was a Time Series study, carried out in a municipality in the northeast of Brazil. Population was composed of tuberculosis cases among residents of the municipality, reported between the years 2002 and 2018. An exploratory analysis of the monthly rates of tuberculosis detection, smoothed according to gender and age group, was performed. Subsequently, the progression of the trend and predictions of the disease were also characterized according to these aspects. For the trends forecast, the seasonal autoregressive linear integrated moving average – Seasonal ARIMA model and the usual Box-Jenkins method were used to choose the most appropriate models.Results: A total of 1,620 cases of tuberculosis were reported, with an incidence of 49.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in men and 34.0 per 100,000 in women. Regarding the incidence for both genders, there was a decreasing trend, which was similar for age. Evidence resulting from the application of the time series shows a decreasing trend between the years 2002–2018, however, it is unlikely that there will be a significant fall in the disease before 2022.

scholarly journals Food independence determinant (Rice) In Supporting The Availability Of National Rice

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 55
Author(s):  
Lendi Ageng Kurnia ◽  
Deden Dinar Iskandar
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Research Design ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Appropriate Technology ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Time Series Study ◽  
Rice Prices ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Series Study

In maintaining the stability of national rice availability, 3 supporting aspects are needed, namely increasing domestic rice production, procuring government rice reserves through Bulog and importing rice. The purpose of this study is 1) to find out the factors that influence the availability of national rice, 2) to find out the factors that influence food independence, especially rice. The data used is secondary data sourced from BPS, FAO statistics and IRRI statistics. The research design used in this study is a time series study from 1970-2016. The model used in the study is Least Square (LS). The results of the analysis show partially the availability of national rice influenced by domestic rice production, government rice reserves and rice imports. While the ability of domestic rice production in supplying the availability of national rice, which is represented in the substance of food independence, is influenced by productivity, rice supply stability, price gap of rice / rice and farmers' welfare. However, it is not influenced by the application of appropriate technology (in this case the use of subsidized fertilizer). The conclusion of this study is that the availability of national rice is not only supplied from within the country but must still be supported by the procurement of imported rice. In increasing food independence, productivity must be increased, ensuring that government rice reserves are always available, monitoring the development of rice / rice prices are always stable, and paying attention to the welfare of farmers as the main actors in rice trading. Whereas the government's policy of providing subsidized fertilizers needs to be refined and monitored in the field because so far only serves as a complement in the provision of rice to the community.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the epidemiological behavior of mortality due to COVID-19 in Brazil: A time series study

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. e0256169
Author(s):  
Ketyllem Tayanne da Silva Costa ◽  
Thiffany Nayara Bento de Morais ◽  
Dayane Caroliny Pereira Justino ◽  
Fábia Barbosa de Andrade
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Health Surveillance ◽  
World Health ◽  
Microsoft Excel ◽  
Time Series Study ◽  
The World ◽  
Independent Variable ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Series Study

The World Health Organization declared, at the end of 2019, a pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, a virus that causes Coronavirus Disease—COVID-19. Currently, Brazil has become the epicenter of the disease, registering approximately 345 thousand deaths. Thus, the study has scientific relevance in health surveillance as it identifies, quantifies and monitors the main behavioral patterns of the mortality rate due to COVID-19, in Brazil and in their respective regions. In this context, the study aims to assess the epidemiological behavior of mortality due to COVID-19 in Brazil: a time series study, referring to the year 2020. This is an ecological time series study, constructed using secondary data. The research was carried out in Brazil, having COVID-19 deaths as the dependent variable that occurred between the 12th and 53rd Epidemiological Week of 2020. The independent variable will be the epidemiological weeks. The data on deaths by COVID-19 were extracted in February 2021, on the Civil Registry Transparency Portal. The cleaning of the database and the information were treated in the Microsoft Excel® Software and, for statistical analysis, the JoinPoint software, version 4.7.0.0 was used. It was observed that Brazil presents an upward curve between the 12th and 19th SE, when it reaches saturation at the peak of mortality, which remains until the 35th SE and, subsequently, a downward curve was identified until the 47th SE, period in the which curve turns back up.

scholarly journals Temporal trends in female breast cancer mortality in Brazil and correlations with social inequalities: ecological time-series study

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolina Maciel Reis Gonzaga ◽  
Ruffo Freitas-Junior ◽  
Maria-Paula Curado ◽  
Ana-Luiza Lima Sousa ◽  
José-Augusto Souza-Neto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Cancer Mortality ◽  
Social Inequalities ◽  
Breast Cancer Mortality ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Female Breast Cancer ◽  
Time Series Study ◽  
Female Breast ◽  
Series Study

scholarly journals Tuberculosis Forecasting and Temporal Trends by Sex and Age in a High Endemic City in Northeast Brazil: Where Were we Before the Covid-19 Pandemic?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamilton Leandro Pinto de Andrade ◽  
Dulce Gomes ◽  
Antônio Carlos Vieira Ramos ◽  
Luiz Henrique Arroyo ◽  
Marcelino Santos Neto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
World Health ◽  
Hiv Positive ◽  
Northeast Brazil ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Series Study

Abstract Background: The aim of this study was to describe the temporal trend of tuberculosis cases according to sex and age group and evidence the level of disease before the Covid-19 pandemic in a city in northeast Brazil. Methods: This was a time series study carried out in a city in northeast Brazil. The population was composed of cases of tuberculosis, excluding those with HIV-positive status, reported between the years 2002 and 2018. An exploratory analysis of the monthly rates of tuberculosis detection, smoothed according to sex and age group, was performed. Subsequently, the progression of the trend and prediction of the disease were also characterized according to these aspects. For the trends forecast, the seasonal autoregressive linear integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the usual Box-Jenkins method were used to choose the most appropriate models. Results: A total of 1,620 cases of tuberculosis were reported, with an incidence of 49.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in men and 34.0 per 100,000 in women. Regarding the incidence for both sexes, there was a decreasing trend, which was similar for age. Evidence resulting from the application of the time series shows a decreasing trend in the years 2002–2018, with a trend of stability. Conclusion: The study demonstrated a decreasing trend in tuberculosis, even before the Covid-19 pandemic, for both sex and age; however, in a step really slow that recommended by the World Health Organization. According to the results, the disease would have achieved a level of stability had it not been for the Covid-19 pandemic. The results are relevant to evidence the problem of TB that transcends its aspects prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.

The role of parental self-regulation and household chaos in parent-toddler interactions: A time-series study.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanne B. Geeraerts ◽  
Joyce Endendijk ◽  
Kirby Deater-Deckard ◽  
Jorg Huijding ◽  
Marike H. F. Deutz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Self Regulation ◽  
Household Chaos ◽  
Time Series Study ◽  
Series Study
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