Comparisons between mild and severe cases of hand, foot and mouth disease in temporal trends: a comparative time series study from mainland China

AbstractSeasonal autoregressive-integrated moving average (SARIMA) has been widely used to model and forecast incidence of infectious diseases in time-series analysis. This study aimed to model and forecast monthly cases of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in China. Monthly incidence HFMD cases in China from May 2008 to August 2018 were analysed with the SARIMA model. A seasonal variation of HFMD incidence was found from May 2008 to August 2018 in China, with a predominant peak from April to July and a trough from January to March. In addition, the annual peak occurred periodically with a large annual peak followed by a relatively small annual peak. A SARIMA model of SARIMA (1, 1, 2) (0, 1, 1)12 was identified, and the mean error rate and determination coefficient were 16.86% and 94.27%, respectively. There was an annual periodicity and seasonal variation of HFMD incidence in China, which could be predicted well by a SARIMA (1, 1, 2) (0, 1, 1)12 model.

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Assessment of foot-and-mouth disease risk areas in mainland China based spatial multi-criteria decision analysis

10.21203/rs.3.rs-424752/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Wang Haoran ◽

Xiao Jianhua ◽

Ouyang Maolin ◽

Gao Hongyan ◽

Bie Jia ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Factors ◽

Decision Analysis ◽

Disease Risk ◽

Mainland China ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Multi Criteria Decision Analysis ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

Risk Areas ◽

And Control

Abstract Background Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals. As a transboundary animal disease, the prevention and control of FMD are important. This study was based on spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to assess FMD risk areas in mainland China. Ten risk factors were identified for constructing risk maps by scoring, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to calculate the criteria weights of all factors. Different risk factors had different units and attributes, and fuzzy membership was used to standardize the risk factors. The weighted linear combination (WLC) and one-at-a-time (OAT) were used to obtain risk and uncertainty maps as well as to perform sensitivity analysis. Results Four major risk areas were identified in mainland China, including western (Xinjiang and Tibet), southern (Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi and Guangdong), northern (Gansu, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia), and eastern (Hebei, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu and Shandong). We found spring as the main season for FMD outbreaks. Risk areas were associated with the distance to previous outbreak points, grazing areas and cattle density. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis indicated that the risk map had good predictive power (AUC = 0.8532). Conclusions These results can be used to delineate FMD risk areas in mainland China, and provinces can adopt the targeted preventive measures and control strategies.

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The temporal characteristics of the lag-response relationship and related key time points between ambient temperature and hand, foot and mouth disease: A multicity study from mainland China

The Science of The Total Environment ◽

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141679 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 749 ◽

pp. 141679

Author(s):

Xiaowei Yi ◽

Zhaorui Chang ◽

Xing Zhao ◽

Yue Ma ◽

Fengfeng Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Ambient Temperature ◽

Mainland China ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Response Relationship ◽

Temporal Characteristics ◽

Time Points ◽

Foot And Mouth

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Early Evidence of Inactivated Enterovirus 71 Vaccine Impact Against Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in a Major Center of Ongoing Transmission in China, 2011–2018: A Longitudinal Surveillance Study

Clinical Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1093/cid/ciz1188 ◽

2019 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Jennifer R Head ◽

Philip A Collender ◽

Joseph A Lewnard ◽

Nicholas K Skaff ◽

Ling Li ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Incidence Rate ◽

Enterovirus 71 ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Asia Pacific ◽

Full Time ◽

Study Region ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

Vaccine Impact

Abstract Background Enterovirus 71 (EV71) is a major causative agent of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), associated with severe manifestations of the disease. Pediatric immunization with inactivated EV71 vaccine was initiated in 2016 in the Asia-Pacific region, including China. We analyzed a time series of HFMD cases attributable to EV71, coxsackievirus A16 (CA16), and other enteroviruses in Chengdu, a major transmission center in China, to assess early impacts of immunization. Methods Reported HFMD cases were obtained from China’s notifiable disease surveillance system. We compared observed postvaccination incidence rates during 2017–2018 with counterfactual predictions made from a negative binomial regression and a random forest model fitted to prevaccine years (2011–2015). We fit a change point model to the full time series to evaluate whether the trend of EV71 HFMD changed following vaccination. Results Between 2011 and 2018, 279 352 HFMD cases were reported in the study region. The average incidence rate of EV71 HFMD in 2017–2018 was 60% (95% prediction interval [PI], 41%–72%) lower than predicted in the absence of immunization, corresponding to an estimated 6911 (95% PI, 3246–11 542) EV71 cases averted over 2 years. There were 52% (95% PI, 42%–60%) fewer severe HFMD cases than predicted. However, the incidence rate of non-CA16 and non-EV71 HFMD was elevated in 2018. We identified a significant decline in the trend of EV71 HFMD 4 months into the postvaccine period. Conclusions We provide the first real-world evidence that programmatic vaccination against EV71 is effective against childhood HFMD and present an approach to detect early vaccine impact or intended consequences from surveillance data.

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Clinical and epidemiological indicators and spatial analysis of leprosy cases in patients under 15 years old in an endemic area of Northeast Brazil: an ecological and time series study

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2018-023420 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (7) ◽

pp. e023420 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Márcio Bezerra Santos ◽

Allan Dantas dos Santos ◽

Aline Silva Barreto ◽

Mariana do Rosário Souza ◽

Marco Aurélio de Oliveira Goes ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Spatial Analysis ◽

Physical Disability ◽

Endemic Area ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Lower Percentage ◽

Northeast Brazil ◽

Time Series Study ◽

Series Study

ObjectiveThis study aimed to analyse the clinical and epidemiological indicators, temporal trends and the spatial distribution of leprosy in patients under 15 years old in an endemic area of Northeast Brazil.DesignRegional surveillance study of all reported cases.SettingState of Sergipe, endemic area of Northeast Brazil.MethodsAn ecological and time series study was conducted, based on secondary data reported by the Brazilian Information System on Notifiable Diseases for leprosy cases diagnosed in Sergipe state (2002–2015). The analysis of temporal trends was performed using the Joinpoint Regression Programme through Poisson regression. We performed spatial analysis by Kernel estimator and Moran index.ResultsThe incidence rate was reduced from 6.29 to 3.78 cases per 100 000 inhabitants in 2002 and 2015, respectively. However, Sergipe was still classified as highly endemicity in 2015. The mean number of household contacts (HHC) examined was significantly lower than those registered. Clinical data indicated that 21.4% of the patients developed leprosy reactions, and 31.3% presented with some physical disability in the multibacillary groups. Patients diagnosed by examination within the HHC presented better indicators, such as lower percentage of leprosy reaction and physical disability. Spatial analysis showed the most risk areas distributed on the northeast and cities around the capital, Aracaju.ConclusionThe data indicate that there is a persistence of activeMyobacterium lepraetransmission and a delay in disease detection, following a pattern of high endemicity in many municipalities. The early detection by HHC examination is important to stop transmission and also to detect the cases in a less severe state.

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Evaluating the effectiveness of national measles elimination action in mainland China during 2004–2016: A multi-site interrupted time-series study

Vaccine ◽

10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.04.053 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 38 (28) ◽

pp. 4440-4447

Author(s):

Lijun Xu ◽

Jun Chen ◽

Zhiying Zhan ◽

Tingting Chen ◽

Wenhui Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Mainland China ◽

Interrupted Time Series ◽

Time Series Study ◽

Measles Elimination ◽

Series Study

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Outbreak response intervention models of vaccine-preventable diseases in humans and foot-and-mouth disease in livestock: a protocol for a systematic review

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2019-036172 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (10) ◽

pp. e036172

Author(s):

James M Azam ◽

Elisha B Are ◽

Xiaoxi Pang ◽

Matthew J Ferrari ◽

Juliet R C Pulliam

Keyword(s):

Systematic Review ◽

Decision Making ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Outbreak Response ◽

Vaccine Preventable Diseases ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

Response Decision ◽

The Impact

IntroductionOutbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases continue to threaten public health, despite the proven effectiveness of vaccines. Interventions such as vaccination, social distancing and palliative care are usually implemented, either individually or in combination, to control these outbreaks. Mathematical models are often used to assess the impact of these interventions and for supporting outbreak response decision making. The objectives of this systematic review, which covers all human vaccine-preventable diseases, are to determine the relative impact of vaccination compared with other outbreak interventions, and to ascertain the temporal trends in the use of modelling in outbreak response decision making. We will also identify gaps and opportunities for future research through a comparison with the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak response modelling literature, which has good examples of the use of modelling to inform outbreak response intervention decision making.Methods and analysisWe searched on PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar and some preprint servers from the start of indexing to 15 January 2020. Inclusion: modelling studies, published in English, that use a mechanistic approach to evaluate the impact of an outbreak intervention. Exclusion: reviews, and studies that do not describe or use mechanistic models or do not describe an outbreak. We will extract data from the included studies such as their objectives, model types and composition, and conclusions on the impact of the intervention. We will ascertain the impact of models on outbreak response decision making through visualisation of time trends in the use of the models. We will also present our results in narrative style.Ethics and disseminationThis systematic review will not require any ethics approval since it only involves scientific articles. The review will be disseminated in a peer-reviewed journal and at various conferences fitting its scope.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42020160803.

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