scholarly journals Prioritising surgical cases deferred by the COVID-19 pandemic: an ethics-inspired algorithmic framework for health leaders

BMJ Leader ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. leader-2020-000343
Author(s):  
Amit Jain ◽  
Tinglong Dai ◽  
Christopher G Myers ◽  
Punya Jain ◽  
Shruti Aggarwal
Keyword(s):  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Health System ◽  
System Capacity ◽  
Surgical Case ◽  
The World ◽  
The Face ◽  
Algorithmic Framework ◽  
Limited Health ◽  
Healthcare Leaders

Elective surgical suspension during the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a sizeable surgical case backlog throughout the world. As we ramp back up, how do we decide which cases take priority? Potential future waves (or a future pandemic) may lead to additional surgical shutdown and subsequent reopening. Deciding which cases to prioritise in the face of limited health system capacity has emerged as a new challenge for healthcare leaders. Here we present an ethically grounded and operationally efficient surgical prioritisation framework for healthcare leaders and practitioners, drawing insights from decision analysis and organisational sciences.

Principles for Health System Capacity Planning: Insights for Healthcare Leaders

2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 17-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Shaw ◽  
Ivy Wong ◽  
Bailey Griffin ◽  
Michael Robertson ◽  
R. Bhatia
Keyword(s):  
Health System ◽  
Capacity Planning ◽  
System Capacity ◽  
Healthcare Leaders

scholarly journals An overview of basics for developing a reopening roadmap amid COVID-19 pandemic, a suggestion for the world

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehrdad Askarian ◽  
Gary Groot ◽  
Ehsan Taherifard ◽  
Erfan Taherifard ◽  
Hossein Akbarialiabad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Health System ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
System Capacity ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Epidemiological Monitoring ◽  
Preventive Actions ◽  
The World ◽  
Previous Phase

Abstract The necessity of easing pandemic restrictions is apparent, and due to the harsh consequences of lockdowns, governments are willing to find a rational pathway to reopen their activities. To find out the basics of developing a reopening roadmap, we reviewed 16 roadmaps. The most notable findings are as following: Protecting the high-risk groups, increasing testing and contact tracing capacity, making decisions scientifically, and making the decisions to impose the lowest risks to the economy were the most principles mentioned in the roadmaps. Social distancing, using a face-covering mask, and washing hands were the necessary preventive actions that were recommended for individuals. Health key metrics pointed out in the roadmaps were categorized into four subsets; sufficient preventive capacities, appropriate diagnosis capacity, appropriate epidemiological monitoring capacity, and sufficient health system capacity to be resilient in facing the surges and next phases of the pandemic. All roadmaps describe their in-phases strategy in three major steps, with a minimum of two weeks considered for each phase. Based on the health key metrics, most of the roadmaps noted when progressing to the next phases, while some of them did not focus on the criteria of returning to the previous phase; which may alter the dynamicity of a roadmap.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) on the dynamics of COVID-19: A mathematical modelling study of the case of Ethiopia

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. e0259874
Author(s):  
Bedilu Alamirie Ejigu ◽  
Manalebish Debalike Asfaw ◽  
Lisa Cavalerie ◽  
Tilahun Abebaw ◽  
Mark Nanyingi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health System ◽  
System Capacity ◽  
World Health ◽  
Rural Populations ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020 and by November 14, 2020 there were 53.3M confirmed cases and 1.3M reported deaths in the world. In the same period, Ethiopia reported 102K cases and 1.5K deaths. Effective public health preparedness and response to COVID-19 requires timely projections of the time and size of the peak of the outbreak. Currently, Ethiopia under the COVAX facility has begun vaccinating high risk populations but due to vaccine supply shortages and the absence of an effective treatment, the implementation of NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions), like hand washing, wearing face coverings or social distancing, still remain the most effective methods of controlling the pandemic as recommended by WHO. This study proposes a modified Susceptible Exposed Infected and Recovered (SEIR) model to predict the number of COVID-19 cases at different stages of the disease under the implementation of NPIs at different adherence levels in both urban and rural settings of Ethiopia. To estimate the number of cases and their peak time, 30 different scenarios were simulated. The results indicated that the peak time of the pandemic is different in urban and rural populations of Ethiopia. In the urban population, under moderate implementation of three NPIs the pandemic will be expected to reach its peak in December, 2020 with 147,972 cases, of which 18,100 are symptomatic and 957 will require admission to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Among the implemented NPIs, increasing the coverage of wearing masks by 10% could reduce the number of new cases on average by one-fifth in urban-populations. Varying the coverage of wearing masks in rural populations minimally reduces the number of cases. In conclusion, the models indicate that the projected number of hospital cases during the peak time is higher than the Ethiopian health system capacity. To contain symptomatic and ICU cases within the health system capacity, the government should pay attention to the strict implementation of the existing NPIs or impose additional public health measures.

scholarly journals The potential effects of widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the World Health Organization African Region: a predictive model

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. e002647 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Waogodo Cabore ◽  
Humphrey Cyprian Karamagi ◽  
Hillary Kipruto ◽  
James Avoka Asamani ◽  
Benson Droti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Health System ◽  
System Capacity ◽  
World Health ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Chain Model ◽  
The World ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Risk Of Exposure ◽  
Country Specific

The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been unprecedented in its speed and effects. Interruption of its transmission to prevent widespread community transmission is critical because its effects go beyond the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths and affect the health system capacity to provide other essential services. Highlighting the implications of such a situation, the predictions presented here are derived using a Markov chain model, with the transition states and country specific probabilities derived based on currently available knowledge. A risk of exposure, and vulnerability index are used to make the probabilities country specific. The results predict a high risk of exposure in states of small size, together with Algeria, South Africa and Cameroon. Nigeria will have the largest number of infections, followed by Algeria and South Africa. Mauritania would have the fewest cases, followed by Seychelles and Eritrea. Per capita, Mauritius, Seychelles and Equatorial Guinea would have the highest proportion of their population affected, while Niger, Mauritania and Chad would have the lowest. Of the World Health Organization's 1 billion population in Africa, 22% (16%–26%) will be infected in the first year, with 37 (29 – 44) million symptomatic cases and 150 078 (82 735–189 579) deaths. There will be an estimated 4.6 (3.6–5.5) million COVID-19 hospitalisations, of which 139 521 (81 876–167 044) would be severe cases requiring oxygen, and 89 043 (52 253–106 599) critical cases requiring breathing support. The needed mitigation measures would significantly strain health system capacities, particularly for secondary and tertiary services, while many cases may pass undetected in primary care facilities due to weak diagnostic capacity and non-specific symptoms. The effect of avoiding widespread and sustained community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is significant, and most likely outweighs any costs of preventing such a scenario. Effective containment measures should be promoted in all countries to best manage the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) on the dynamics of COVID-19: A mathematical modelling study in the case of Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bedilu Alamirie Ejigu ◽  
Manalebish Debalike Asfaw ◽  
Lisa Cavalerie ◽  
Tilahun Abebaw ◽  
Mark Nanyingi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health System ◽  
System Capacity ◽  
World Health ◽  
Rural Populations ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractThe World Health Organisation (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020 and by November 14, 2020 there were 53.3M confirmed cases and 1.3M reported deaths in the world. In the same period, Ethiopia reported 102K cases and 1.5K deaths. Effective public health preparedness and response to COVID-19 requires timely projections of the time and size of the peak of the outbreak. Currently, in the absence of vaccine or effective treatment, the implementation of NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions), like hand washing, wearing face coverings or social distancing, is recommended by WHO to bring the pandemic under control. This study proposes a modified Susceptible Exposed Infected and Recovered (SEIR) model to predict the number of COVID-19 cases at different stages of the disease under the implementation of NPIs with different adherence levels in both urban and rural settings of Ethiopia. To estimate the number of cases and their peak time, 30 different scenarios were simulated. The results reveal that the peak time of the pandemic is different in urban and rural populations of Ethiopia. In the urban population, under moderate implementation of three NPIs the pandemic will be expected to reach its peak in December, 2020 with 147,972 cases, of which 18,100 are symptomatic and 957 will require admission to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Among the implemented NPIs, increasing the coverage of wearing masks by 10% could reduce the number of new cases on average by one-fifth in urban-populations. Varying the coverage of wearing masks in rural populations minimally reduces the number of cases. In conclusion, the projection result reveals that the projected number of hospital cases is higher than the Ethiopian health system capacity during the peak time. To contain symptomatic and ICU cases within health system capacity, the government should give attention to the strict implementation of the existing NPIs or impose additional public health measures.

Power of Darkness: Narrative and Biographical Reflexivity in A Series of Unfortunate Events

2008 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 200-212
Author(s):  
ELIZABETH BULLEN
Keyword(s):  
The Self ◽  
Risk Society ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Young Readers ◽  
The World ◽  
The Face ◽  
High Earning ◽  
Textual Culture ◽  
Children’S Exposure ◽  
Central Claim

This paper investigates the high-earning children's series, A Series of Unfortunate Events, in relation to the skills young people require to survive and thrive in what Ulrich Beck calls risk society. Children's textual culture has been traditionally informed by assumptions about childhood happiness and the need to reassure young readers that the world is safe. The genre is consequently vexed by adult anxiety about children's exposure to certain kinds of knowledge. This paper discusses the implications of the representation of adversity in the Lemony Snicket series via its subversions of the conventions of children's fiction and metafictional strategies. Its central claim is that the self-consciousness or self-reflexivity of A Series of Unfortunate Events} models one of the forms of reflexivity children need to be resilient in the face of adversity and to empower them to undertake the biographical project risk society requires of them.

Persons in a World of Things

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan L. Mittleman
Keyword(s):  
Explanatory Power ◽  
The World ◽  
The Face ◽  
Classic Essay

This chapter focuses on the reality of persons in a world of things. It begins and ends with some relevant views drawn from the Jewish philosophers Buber (1878–1965), Heschel (1907–72), and Joseph B. Soloveitchik (1903–93). Framed by the Jewish concerns, it turns to a philosophical exploration of human personhood. The chapter begins by consiering Sellars's classic essay on the scientific and manifest images of “man-in-the-world.” Sellars shows how urgent and difficult it is to sustain a recognizable image of ourselves as persons in the face of scientism. With additional help from Nagel and Kant, it argues that persons cannot be conceptually scanted in a world of things. Notwithstanding the explanatory power of science, there is more to life than explanation. Explanation of what we are needs supplementing by a conception of who we are, how we should live, and why we matter. Those are questions to which Jewish sources can speak.

Too WEIRD, Too Fast: Preprints about COVID-19 in the Psychological Sciences

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arathy Puthillam
Keyword(s):  
Overwhelming Majority ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Face ◽  
Conducting Research ◽  
Psychological Studies

That American and European participants are overrepresented in psychological studies has been previously established. In addition, researchers also often tend to be similarly homogenous. This continues to be alarming, especially given that this research is being used to inform policies across the world. In the face of a global pandemic where behavioral scientists propose solutions, we ask who is conducting research and on what samples. Forty papers on COVID-19 published in PsyArxiV were analyzed; the nationalities of the authors and the samples they recruited were assessed. Findings suggest that an overwhelming majority of the samples recruited were from the US and the authors were based in US and German institutions. Next, men constituted a large proportion of primary and sole authors. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Aplikasi Kuartu Berbasis Android Sebagai Media Pertukaran Informasi Kartu Nama

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-32
Author(s):  
Nandi Syukri ◽  
Eko Budi Setiawan
Keyword(s):  
Mobile Devices ◽  
Information Exchange ◽  
Smart Phone ◽  
Black Box ◽  
Qr Code ◽  
Business Card ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
The World ◽  
The Face ◽  
Index Terms

Business Card is the most efficient, effective and appropriate tool for every business men no matter they are owners, employees, more over marketers to provide information about their businesses. Unfortunately, it is very difficult to bring and manage business card in large numbers also to remember the face of the business card owner. A Business Card application need to be built to solve all those issues mentioned above. The Application or software must be run in media which can be accessed anywhere and anytime such as smart phone. Kuartu is as business card application run in mobile devices. Kuartu is developed using object base modeling for mobile sub system. The platform of the mobile sub system is android, as it is the most widely used platform in the world. The Kuartu application utilizing NFC and QR Code technology to support the business card information exchange and the Chatting feature for communication. Based on the experiment and test using black box methodology, it can be concluded that Kuartu application makes business card owner to communicate each other easily, business card always carried, easy to manage the cards and information of the business card owner can be easily obtained. Index Terms— Business Card, Android, Kuartu, NFC, QrCode, Chatting.

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