scholarly journals Assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) on the dynamics of COVID-19: A mathematical modelling study of the case of Ethiopia

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. e0259874
Author(s):  
Bedilu Alamirie Ejigu ◽  
Manalebish Debalike Asfaw ◽  
Lisa Cavalerie ◽  
Tilahun Abebaw ◽  
Mark Nanyingi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health System ◽  
System Capacity ◽  
World Health ◽  
Rural Populations ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020 and by November 14, 2020 there were 53.3M confirmed cases and 1.3M reported deaths in the world. In the same period, Ethiopia reported 102K cases and 1.5K deaths. Effective public health preparedness and response to COVID-19 requires timely projections of the time and size of the peak of the outbreak. Currently, Ethiopia under the COVAX facility has begun vaccinating high risk populations but due to vaccine supply shortages and the absence of an effective treatment, the implementation of NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions), like hand washing, wearing face coverings or social distancing, still remain the most effective methods of controlling the pandemic as recommended by WHO. This study proposes a modified Susceptible Exposed Infected and Recovered (SEIR) model to predict the number of COVID-19 cases at different stages of the disease under the implementation of NPIs at different adherence levels in both urban and rural settings of Ethiopia. To estimate the number of cases and their peak time, 30 different scenarios were simulated. The results indicated that the peak time of the pandemic is different in urban and rural populations of Ethiopia. In the urban population, under moderate implementation of three NPIs the pandemic will be expected to reach its peak in December, 2020 with 147,972 cases, of which 18,100 are symptomatic and 957 will require admission to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Among the implemented NPIs, increasing the coverage of wearing masks by 10% could reduce the number of new cases on average by one-fifth in urban-populations. Varying the coverage of wearing masks in rural populations minimally reduces the number of cases. In conclusion, the models indicate that the projected number of hospital cases during the peak time is higher than the Ethiopian health system capacity. To contain symptomatic and ICU cases within the health system capacity, the government should pay attention to the strict implementation of the existing NPIs or impose additional public health measures.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) on the dynamics of COVID-19: A mathematical modelling study in the case of Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bedilu Alamirie Ejigu ◽  
Manalebish Debalike Asfaw ◽  
Lisa Cavalerie ◽  
Tilahun Abebaw ◽  
Mark Nanyingi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health System ◽  
System Capacity ◽  
World Health ◽  
Rural Populations ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractThe World Health Organisation (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020 and by November 14, 2020 there were 53.3M confirmed cases and 1.3M reported deaths in the world. In the same period, Ethiopia reported 102K cases and 1.5K deaths. Effective public health preparedness and response to COVID-19 requires timely projections of the time and size of the peak of the outbreak. Currently, in the absence of vaccine or effective treatment, the implementation of NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions), like hand washing, wearing face coverings or social distancing, is recommended by WHO to bring the pandemic under control. This study proposes a modified Susceptible Exposed Infected and Recovered (SEIR) model to predict the number of COVID-19 cases at different stages of the disease under the implementation of NPIs with different adherence levels in both urban and rural settings of Ethiopia. To estimate the number of cases and their peak time, 30 different scenarios were simulated. The results reveal that the peak time of the pandemic is different in urban and rural populations of Ethiopia. In the urban population, under moderate implementation of three NPIs the pandemic will be expected to reach its peak in December, 2020 with 147,972 cases, of which 18,100 are symptomatic and 957 will require admission to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Among the implemented NPIs, increasing the coverage of wearing masks by 10% could reduce the number of new cases on average by one-fifth in urban-populations. Varying the coverage of wearing masks in rural populations minimally reduces the number of cases. In conclusion, the projection result reveals that the projected number of hospital cases is higher than the Ethiopian health system capacity during the peak time. To contain symptomatic and ICU cases within health system capacity, the government should give attention to the strict implementation of the existing NPIs or impose additional public health measures.

scholarly journals The Contribution of Public Health Investments to the Economic Growth of Cameroon

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ismaila Amadu ◽  
Ngoe Fritz Eseokwea ◽  
Marcel Ngambi
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Health Care ◽  
Health Care Services ◽  
Health Spending ◽  
World Health ◽  
Quality Health Care ◽  
Health Investments ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government

The goal of this paper is to determine the contribution of public health investments to the economic growth of Cameroon. The study used the human capital model of Lucas (1988) within the framework of endogenous growth theories. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was employed in the estimations procedure using the World Development Indicators (WDI, 2013) data from the World Bank over the period spanning from 1988 to 2013.The findings show that government health expenditures contribute to economic growth only in the long run. From our results, we recommend that: first, the government should increase health spending to 10 or 15 percent of its GDP as initially suggested by the African Union and the World Health Organization respectively; second, government should enhance the provision of health care services by the private sector by putting in place incitation measures; third, competitive awards should be granted to those health units that render quality health care services.Int. J. Soc. Sc. Manage. Vol. 4, Issue-1: 12-21

scholarly journals Heterogeneity of the COVID-19 epidemic in Australia: What can we learn from it?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiuli Chen ◽  
Yibeltal Assefa
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
System Capacity ◽  
World Health ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
South Wales ◽  
The World ◽  
Effective Community ◽  
One Year ◽  
Health Organization

Abstract It has been more than one year since the World Health Organization declared the pandemic of COVID-19. Countries around the world are still struggling to control their epidemics. Australia has shown its resilience in the fight against the epidemic by providing a comprehensive response involving the whole-of-government and whole-of-society. Despite the overall successful national response, the epidemic in Australia has been heterogeneous across states. We conducted a mixed-methods study to analyze the epidemic and explain the variable manifestation of the epidemic across states in Australia. Most of the COVID-19 cases and deaths were in Victoria and New South Wales states due to differences in governance of the epidemic and public health responses (quarantine and contact tracing) among states. Countries could learn not only from Australia’s overall successful response, through good governance, effective community participation, adequate public health and health system capacity and multisectoral actions, but also from the heterogeneity of the epidemic among states. Successful response to epidemics in countries with a decentralized administration requires multi-level governance with alignment and harmonization of the response.

scholarly journals 3.E. Workshop: The Role of Digital Public Health in the European Climate Pact and Green deal

2021 ◽  
Vol 31 (Supplement_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Digital Health ◽  
Digital Systems ◽  
World Health ◽  
Director General ◽  
European Climate ◽  
The World ◽  
Climate Crisis ◽  
The Impact

Abstract   Europe is facing two major structural changes: the climate crisis, having a significant impact on public health, and digitalization of the economy, that could play a role in mitigating climate change and its impacts on public health. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected our lives in many ways including how we see public health, the climate change and has created the conditions for the almost exponential growth for telemedicine and digitalization in healthcare. Underlining that the world is facing an increasing innovation and integration of digital tools to address public health and environmental problems, as the UN Secretary-General and the Director-General of the World Health Organization both declared that we are currently fighting a climate “pandemic” in the same way as we are fighting COVID-19. Digital solutions have been implemented to address COVID-19 and impacted by reducing CO2 emissions and improving quality of life. Digital systems, including Artificial Intelligence, robots and drones, are now changing the paradigm of public health and environment management. Due to the complex nature of the information ecosystem our societies and communities live in, a digital public health approach can be managed to reduce harm to individual, community and population health, support social cohesion and trust in emergency response and interventions to deal with climate change. Digital health could, within 10 years establish a new paradigm in public and environmental health. Public health professionals need urgently to tackle digital health to bridge the gap with others areas of healthcare. During the COVID-19 crisis, national public health authorities have been challenged in the way they communicate with the public, engage with communities in collecting data to improve response, providing the scientific evidence, the day-to-day facts and figures. Likewise, The European Climate Pact provides a space for collectively develop and implement climate solutions. The Climate Pact is an open, inclusive and evolving initiative for climate action through an online platform and citizen dialogues and exchanges, it will foster the link between the digital and green transition. This workshop aims to share the experiences of digital public health interventions with significant impact on climate change mitigation during the pandemic. It will be organised as a round table, starting by setting the scene with an introduction to key digital health concepts and challenges. Each speaker will give a short pitch on how they have experienced the challenge of using digital systems in public health and how they approached its management during the crisis. This will be followed by a panel discussion. Participants will have ample time to ask questions to the panellists. The workshop will end with a summary of a selection of tools participants can use in their own environmental management activities and key take home messages from the panellist will be provided as a conclusion. Key messages Digital Public Health has been establishing evidence on interventions with significant effects on reducing the impact of climate crisis. A Partnership is needed across the health system and society to manage this crisis. European Green Deal and Climate Pact could be used as a roadmap in digital public health.

scholarly journals The implementation of policies and the impact of handling Covid-19 originating from the World Health Organization's Point of View

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-30
Author(s):  
Pham Hoang
Keyword(s):  
Policy Implementation ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
World Health ◽  
Government Decision ◽  
The World ◽  
Response Measures ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Economic And Social Impacts

The purpose of this article is to describe the capacity and role of WHO in dealing with the spread of COVID-19 and to discuss in-depth articles at the stages of policy implementation that specifically discuss the WHO protocol that is applied in dealing with the spread of Covid-19. The implementation of the policy to handle the spread of COVID-19 considers various aspects not only health but also the economic and social impacts resulting from government decision making. In addition, response measures are implemented through the Acceleration of COVID-19 Handling task which is part of the formation of structures, structure is one of the aspects that are considered in Edward III's implementation theory besides communication, resources and disposition because the presence of a structure helps implement policies has a significant effect. on policy implementation. The support of all elements of the government, the private sector in compliance with government and WHO instructions, especially regarding social distancing and physical distancing, will have a big impact in preventing the spread of COVID-19.

scholarly journals The relationship of urbanization with the formation and implementation of public health policy in Ukraine

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (12) ◽  
pp. 59-69
Author(s):  
О. І. Деміхов
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Policy ◽  
Public Health Policy ◽  
Healthy Lifestyle ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
World Health ◽  
Motor Vehicles ◽  
Industrial Emissions ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of the research is to study and find out the modern foreign technologies of public health policy in the context of the impact of urbanization processes, to explore the possibilities of implementation of best practices in Ukraine.Materials. Peculiarities of public health policy implementation in developed countries in the context of population density increase and agglomeration expansion are described in the article. The study is based on the analysis of statistics, publications in the media and scientific articles. The comparative statistical analysis of the countries of the world on the incidence of the incidence of different species and the correlation of these processes with the urbanization dynamics is made in the article. Expert assessments of UN and World Health Organization experts on processes of concentration of population around the world, deterioration of living conditions, quality of health, morbidity and appropriate prevention, promotion of healthy lifestyle and quality control of goods, works and services for the population are given in the article. Particular emphasis is placed on the environmental problems of densely populated areas, including through the proliferation of motor vehicles, substandard housing and uncontrolled industrial emissions. The connection of the dynamics of urbanization with the increase of the sedentary lifestyle of the citizens is also described. The urban way of life is assessed as requiring immediate influence by public health policy makers. The current experience of foreign public administration and public policy entities on a proactive approach to shaping the concept of public health in the context of urban transformation in society can be used in Ukraine. Practical results of the work of state institutions in developed countries should be implemented in Ukraine. Conclusions. On the example of the positive experience of the capitalist countries of the world, the further directions of the development of public health policy in Ukraine in the conditions of deepening urbanization processes are clearly defined.

scholarly journals Trachoma Prevalence After Discontinuation of Mass Azithromycin Distribution

2020 ◽  
Vol 221 (Supplement_5) ◽  
pp. S519-S524
Author(s):  
William Godwin ◽  
Joaquin M Prada ◽  
Paul Emerson ◽  
P J Hooper ◽  
Ana Bakhtiari ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
World Health ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Program Cycle ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Oral Azithromycin

Abstract Background As the World Health Organization seeks to eliminate trachoma by 2020, countries are beginning to control the transmission of trachomatous inflammation–follicular (TF) and discontinue mass drug administration (MDA) with oral azithromycin. We evaluated the effect of MDA discontinuation on TF1–9 prevalence at the district level. Methods We extracted from the available data districts with an impact survey at the end of their program cycle that initiated discontinuation of MDA (TF1–9 prevalence <5%), followed by a surveillance survey conducted to determine whether TF1–9 prevalence remained below the 5% threshold, warranting discontinuation of MDA. Two independent analyses were performed, 1 regression based and 1 simulation based, that assessed the change in TF1–9 from the impact survey to the surveillance survey. Results Of the 220 districts included, TF1–9 prevalence increased to >5% from impact to surveillance survey in 9% of districts. Regression analysis indicated that impact survey TF1–9 prevalence was a significant predictor of surveillance survey TF1–9 prevalence. The proportion of simulations with >5% TF1–9 prevalence in the surveillance survey was 2%, assuming the survey was conducted 4 years after MDA. Conclusion An increase in TF1–9 prevalence may represent disease resurgence but could also be due to measurement error. Improved diagnostic tests are crucial to elimination of TF1–9 as a public health problem.

Analysis of the Challenges and Problems in the Development of Public Health System in Beijing, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayan Mao ◽  
Cordia Chu ◽  
Yujie Yang ◽  
Yueli Meng ◽  
Wuqi Qiu
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health System ◽  
Public Health System ◽  
Municipal Government ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
System Capacity ◽  
Health Staff ◽  
The Public ◽  
Information Strategies ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background: To discern the main problems of Beijing’s public health service system, in order to provide suggestions to modernize the public health system and to enforce the implementation of the “Health Beijing 2030” plan. Methods: We carried out a quantitative study mostly based on interviews. There are over 40 directors and scholars who came from public health institutions and government sectors or organization that related to the public health work in Beijing were interviewed. The interview records were summary analyzed on key issues in accordance with the interview outline. Results: The challenges for the system include the change of structure of the population, the impact of the changing spectrum of diseases and changing environmental factors, and macro-institutional changes. The main problems include structure of the public health system, capacity of public health staff, systems for information management and legal framework for public health. On this basis, several relevant policy recommendations are put forward. Conclusion: To improve the public health system, the Beijing municipal government should design and construction of a system planning and perfecting their investment mechanism on public health. Stability of personnel and encouragement of innovation in scientific research and reliable health information strategies are also urgent needed.

scholarly journals Impact of lockdown measures in abating the COVID-19 pandemic: Lessons from India’s phased approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
R Singh ◽  
K Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Public ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) constituted a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on 30 January 2020 and characterized the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) as a pandemic on 11 March 2020. India enacted such measures early on for effective mitigation and suppression to reduce community transmission, including an onerous national lockdown. The impact of the health system governance is quite apparent among all stakeholders including the public in such emergency contexts. Methods We compiled the daily data on the number of COVID-19 cases, recoveries and deaths from January 30th until June 16th, 2020. Different stages were categorized from post PHEIC declaration (pre-lockdown) phase to lockdown phases and unlocking phase as implemented. The several measures adopted by the national government were structured in four broad categories as Governance and socioeconomic, travel restrictions, lockdown and public health measures. These measures were compared during each phase. Results It was revealed that while the cases are rising the phased restrictions has helped in delaying the peak and remarkably interrupted the rate of transmission. The national average doubling rate was 3 days at the beginning which improved to 22 days. The basic reproduction number remained close to 1 during the last week of lockdown. However, the initial interruption of needed aid and technical support had negative social and economic impacts on the affected population. Conclusions As the situation abates following the measures adopted by the government, an articulate strategy of unlocking through increased testing and prompt isolation needs to be developed for more effective reduction and protecting the livelihoods allowing to further relax the lockdown measures. Key messages There is need for the local government to consider a strategic easing of the lockdown for protecting the rights of the most affected population. As the transmission rates are low, the easing of lockdown can be benefited from improved testing and prompt isolation.

scholarly journals Smallpox in the Post-Eradication Era

Viruses ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hermann Meyer ◽  
Rosina Ehmann ◽  
Geoffrey L. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Health Benefit ◽  
World Health Organisation ◽  
World Health ◽  
Viral Spread ◽  
The World ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Impact

Widespread vaccination programmes led to the global eradication of smallpox, which was certified by the World Health Organisation (WHO), and, since 1978, there has been no case of smallpox anywhere in the world. However, the viable variola virus (VARV), the causative agent of smallpox, is still kept in two maximum security laboratories in Russia and the USA. Despite the eradication of the disease smallpox, clandestine stocks of VARV may exist. In a rapidly changing world, the impact of an intentional VARV release in the human population would nowadays result in a public health emergency of global concern: vaccination programmes were abolished, the percentage of immunosuppressed individuals in the human population is higher, and an increased intercontinental air travel allows for the rapid viral spread of diseases around the world. The WHO has authorised the temporary retention of VARV to enable essential research for public health benefit to take place. This work aims to develop diagnostic tests, antiviral drugs, and safer vaccines. Advances in synthetic biology have made it possible to produce infectious poxvirus particles from chemicals in vitro so that it is now possible to reconstruct VARV. The status of smallpox in the post-eradication era is reviewed.

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