scholarly journals Tobacco control within and beyond WHO MPOWER: outcomes from Taiwan SimSmoke

2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mattia Sanna ◽  
Wayne Gao ◽  
Ya-Wen Chiu ◽  
Hung-Yi Chiou ◽  
Yi-Hua Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tobacco Control ◽  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Retail Price ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
The Status ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Per Capita Consumption

IntroductionAdult smoking prevalence in Taiwan rapidly declined from 26.5% in 2005 to 20.0% in 2015. Nevertheless, future projections on smoking-attributable deaths and current per capita consumption do not paint an equally bright picture.MethodsWe used SimSmoke, a tobacco control simulation model to assess the impact of tax increases and other policies by predicting past and projecting over future decades smoking rates and smoking-attributable mortality.ResultsThe model accurately depicts the decline in smoking prevalence observed in Taiwan from 2000 to 2015. Nonetheless, under the ‘status quo’ scenario, smoking-attributable mortality is projected to continue growing, peaking at 26 602 annual deaths in 2039 and cumulative deaths >1 million by 2044. By comparing projections with current policies with a counterfactual scenario based on the 2000 policy levels, SimSmoke estimates that tobacco control in Taiwan has been able to reduce smoking prevalence by 30% in 2015 with 450 000 fewer smoking-attributable deaths by 2060. Modified scenarios show that doubling the retail price of cigarettes and fully implementing the remaining MPOWER measures would avert approximately 45 000 lives by 2040 and 130 000 by 2060.ConclusionsTobacco will be a leading cause of death in Taiwan for the coming decades, showing yet again the long-term consequences of smoking on public health. The MPOWER package, even if adopted at the highest level with a large tax increase, is unlikely to reduce smoking prevalence to the endgame goal of 5% in the next five decades.

FCTC Ratification, Smoking Prevalence and GDP per Capita : Lesson Learn for Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdillah Ahsan ◽  
Rifai Afin ◽  
Nadira Amalia ◽  
Martha Hindriyani ◽  
Ardhini Risfa Jacinda
Keyword(s):  
Tobacco Control ◽  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Tobacco Industry ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background The stagnated tobacco control progress in Indonesia needs to be accelerated through a more comprehensive implementation of Framework Convention of Tobacco Control (FCTC) measurement. Nevertheless, the tobacco industry argument concerning the negative economic impacts of tobacco control still hinders the government to ratify or even sign the FCTC, which has been ratified by more than 180 countries. This study aims to bring the empirical evidence on the tobacco industry argument concerning FCTC. This study applied two stage least square estimation strategy to unbalanced panel data at country level. On the first stage we estimate the impact FCTC ratification on smoking activity, and on the second step, estimating the influence of smoking activities on macroeconomic performance.Results The result of this study shows that FCTC ratification is negatively related to a country’s smoking prevalence, in which the ratifying party of FCTC has lower smoking prevalence. Moreover, country who ratifies FCTC longer is also associated with lower smoking prevalence. Whereas FCTC ratification is beneficial in reducing smoking prevalence, the declining smoking prevalence is not related to the decline in GDP per capita.Conclusions The result of this study shows the decrease in smoking prevalence has nothing to do with the macroeconomic indicator. Hence, FCTC ratification, which is an important driver for tobacco control actions acceleration, should not be seen as a backfire to the economy. Instead, FCTC ratification could be mutually beneficial for the health and economic aspects as it provides comprehensive guidance and protocols by taking into account the well-being states of both aspects.

scholarly journals Potential deaths averted in USA by replacing cigarettes with e-cigarettes

2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
David T Levy ◽  
Ron Borland ◽  
Eric N Lindblom ◽  
Maciej L Goniewicz ◽  
Rafael Meza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tobacco Control ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Cigarette Use ◽  
Average Life Expectancy ◽  
Premature Deaths ◽  
Life Years ◽  
The Status ◽  
Pessimistic Scenario ◽  
Life Years Lost ◽  
The Impact

IntroductionUS tobacco control policies to reduce cigarette use have been effective, but their impact has been relatively slow. This study considers a strategy of switching cigarette smokers to e-cigarette use (‘vaping’) in the USA to accelerate tobacco control progress.MethodsA Status Quo Scenario, developed to project smoking rates and health outcomes in the absence of vaping, is compared with Substitution models, whereby cigarette use is largely replaced by vaping over a 10-year period. We test an Optimistic and a Pessimistic Scenario, differing in terms of the relative harms of e-cigarettes compared with cigarettes and the impact on overall initiation, cessation and switching. Projected mortality outcomes by age and sex under the Status Quo and E-Cigarette Substitution Scenarios are compared from 2016 to 2100 to determine public health impacts.FindingsCompared with the Status Quo, replacement of cigarette by e-cigarette use over a 10-year period yields 6.6 million fewer premature deaths with 86.7 million fewer life years lost in the Optimistic Scenario. Under the Pessimistic Scenario, 1.6 million premature deaths are averted with 20.8 million fewer life years lost. The largest gains are among younger cohorts, with a 0.5 gain in average life expectancy projected for the age 15 years cohort in 2016.ConclusionsThe tobacco control community has been divided regarding the role of e-cigarettes in tobacco control. Our projections show that a strategy of replacing cigarette smoking with vaping would yield substantial life year gains, even under pessimistic assumptions regarding cessation, initiation and relative harm.

The Quantification of Structural Reforms in OECD Countries

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Balázs Égert ◽  
Peter Gal
Keyword(s):  
Product Market ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Market Regulation ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Product Market Regulation ◽  
The Impact

This chapter describes and discusses a new supply-side framework that quantifies the impact of structural reforms on per capita income in OECD countries. It presents the overall macroeconomic impacts of reforms by aggregating over the effects on physical capital, employment, and productivity through a production function. On the basis of reforms defined as observed changes in policies, the chapter finds that product market regulation has the largest overall single policy impact five years after the reforms. But the combined impact of all labour market policies is considerably larger than that of product market regulation. The paper also shows that policy impacts can differ at different horizons. The overall long-term effects on GDP per capita of policies transiting through capital deepening can be considerably larger than the five- to ten-year impacts. By contrast, the long-term impact of policies coming only via the employment rate channel materializes at a shorter horizon.

Pandora's Box: Reviewing the Composition of the UN Security Council in the Light of British and French Experience 1945–1963

1997 ◽  
Vol 66 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 273-300 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Security Council ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Short Term ◽  
French Experience ◽  
Un Security Council ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Foreign Ministries

AbstractThis article aims to throw a light on the problems relating to the proposed enlargement of the composition of the UN Security Council at present by studying the creation of four non-permanent seats in the Security Council in 1963 from the British and the French perspectives. The examination is based on the author's research of original documents in the archives of the British and French foreign ministries and upon information provided to the author by British, French and Finnish diplomats. The author concludes that, as between 1946 and 1963, British and French short term interests are still best served by maintaining the status quo in the Security Council. However, in a long term perspective it is not clear where the interests of these two States lie.

Temporal changes in an alligator snapping turtle (Macrochelys temminckii) population

2013 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mitchell B. East ◽  
J. Daren Riedle ◽  
Day B. Ligon
Keyword(s):  
Management Practices ◽  
Unknown Origin ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Macrochelys Temminckii ◽  
The Status ◽  
Management Recommendations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Term Monitoring ◽  
Term Data

Context Monitoring populations of long-lived species requires continuous long-term efforts. This is especially applicable for species that have experienced declines range-wide. Aims Our study assessed the current status of a population of wild Macrochelys temminckii and compared the present results to those from a survey conducted nearly a decade ago. Methods Trapping in 2010–2011 was conducted on two creeks within the refuge, during the months of May–July. Capture data were compared with data collected by similar methods in 1997–2001. Key results The population structure of M. temminckii was dominated by juveniles, with few large adults or small juveniles detected and a missing size class was evident. Retrospective analysis of 1997–2001 data revealed that the population was likely to be in decline even then, despite high capture rates. Conclusions The M. temminckii population showed significant declines that indicated that the population had experienced stressors of unknown origin. The status of M. temminckii at the refuge is concerning, given the protection afforded this remnant population. Implications Short-term data from 1997–2001 indicated a healthy M. temminckii population, whereas longer-term data showed that the population has declined, resulting in significant demographic changes. Continued monitoring will be necessary to develop management recommendations and track the impact of implemented management practices. Longer-term monitoring of long-lived vertebrates is required to identify population trends.

scholarly journals Bodily abjection and the politics of resistance in Tom Paulin’s Greek tragedies

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabelle Torrance
Keyword(s):  
Open Channel ◽  
Radical Change ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
The Political ◽  
Northern Irish ◽  
The Status ◽  
Politics Of Resistance ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Political Groups ◽  
Political Actions

Abstract Tom Paulin’s Greek tragedies present extremes of bodily abjection in order to service of a politics of resistance that is tied, in each case, to the political context of the drama’s production. The Riot Act (1984), Seize the Fire (1989), and Medea (2010), share a focus on the degradation of oppressed political groups and feature characters who destabilize the status quo. Yet the impact of disruptive political actions is not ultimately made clear. We are left wondering at the conclusion of each tragedy if the momentous acts of defiance we have witnessed have any power to create systemic change within politically rigged systems. The two 1980s plays are discussed together and form a sequence, with The Riot Act overtly addressing the Northern Irish conflict and Seize the Fire encompassing a broader sweep of oppressive regimes. The politics of discrimination in Medea are illuminated by comparison with similar themes in Paulin’s Love’s Bonfire (2010). Unlike other Northern Irish adaptations of Greek tragedy, Paulin’s dramas, arrested in their political moments, present little hope for the immediate future. Yet in asking us to consider if individual sacrifice is enough to achieve radical change they maintain an open channel for political discourse.

scholarly journals The Impact and Empirical Analysis of the Development Level of E-commerce Industry on China’s Export Trade

2021 ◽  
Vol 235 ◽  
pp. 02046
Author(s):  
Chun Feng ◽  
Fei Lei ◽  
Zhijun Luo
Keyword(s):  
High Efficiency ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Export Trade ◽  
Empirical Methods ◽  
Existing Problems ◽  
Development Level ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Impact

With its advantages of low cost and high efficiency, e-commerce is not only favored by ordinary consumers, but also effectively promotes SMEs to find business opportunities and win the market. This article starts with the development scale of China’s e-commerce industry and the status quo of export trade, and measures the overall index of China’s e-commerce industry development level from 2008 to 2018 through empirical methods to analyze its impact on China’s export trade. The results show that the development level of the e-commerce industry has a significant positive impact on China’s export trade. Finally, it analyzes the existing problems in the development of China’s e-commerce industry.

scholarly journals Imaginary Worlds: The Status of Simulation Modeling in Claims for Cost-Effectiveness In Diabetes Mellitus

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul C Langley ◽  
Taeho Greg Rhee
Keyword(s):  
Diabetes Mellitus ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Simulation Modeling ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Status ◽  
The Impact

Over the past 20 years a number of simulations or models have been developed as a basis for tracking and evaluating the impact of pharmacological and other interventions in type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus. These models have typically tracked the natural course of these diseases generating long-term composite claims for cost-effectiveness. These claims can extend over the lifetime of the modeled patient cohort. Set against the standards of normal science, however, these claims lack credibility. The claims presented are all too often either immune to failure or are presented in a form that is non-testable. As such they fail to meet the key experimental requirements of falsification and replication. Unfortunately, there is a continuing belief that long-term or lifetime models are essential to decision-making. This is misplaced. The purpose of this review is to argue that there is a pressing need to reconsider the needs of health system decision makers and focus on modeled or simulated claims that are meaningful, testable, reportable and replicable in evaluating interventions in diabetes mellitus.   Type: Commentary

scholarly journals Pedagogy of the Black academic

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (22) ◽  
pp. 2423-2424
Author(s):  
Glenn E. Simmons
Keyword(s):  
Personal Experience ◽  
Positive Change ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Current State ◽  
Single Person ◽  
The Status ◽  
Black Man ◽  
Social Upheaval ◽  
The Impact

I am just starting my career as a cancer biologist, but I have always been a Black man in America. This means that I have always inhabited a world that generally disregarded my existence in some form or another. It is June 17th, 2020 and protests have been happening for weeks since the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis. The current state of America may be uneasy for some, but for many Americans, the looming threat of exclusion and violence has been an unwelcome companion since birth. This letter is not about a single person, but the Black academic’s experience of race inside and outside of the academy during a time of social upheaval. I have trained in a variety of institutions, big and small, and all the while acutely aware of the impact of my Blackness on my science. The intent of the following is to provoke the reader to reflect on how we as a nation can move toward radically positive change and not incremental adjustments to the status quo. The views expressed are my own and are the result of years of personal experience observing the anti-Black standard in America.

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