Evaluating fire management effectiveness with a burn probability model in Daxing’anling, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 50 (7) ◽  
pp. 670-679
Author(s):  
Xiaorui Tian ◽  
Wenbin Cui ◽  
Lifu Shu
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forests ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Forest Landscape ◽  
Financial Investment ◽  
Burn Probability ◽  
Base Scenario ◽  
Bp Model

Fire is an important disturbance agent in the boreal forests of China. The aggressive fire suppression policy of China since 1988 has resulted in a large financial investment in support of fire brigade capabilities and the maintenance of fire management infrastructure. We developed a spatially explicit burn probability (BP) model to evaluate the effectiveness of improved fire management in Daxing’anling, China. The BP model can emulate the burn probability of the forest landscape by simulating daily wildfire occurrences, spread, and suppression for simulated years. Two scenarios were used for fire simulations in this study. The base scenario used the infrastructure data and parameters of fire suppression capability from the 1968–1987 period, and the intensive scenario used the data and parameters from the 1988–2012 period. The simulated annual burned areas for 1968–2012 showed a fluctuating trend similar to the historical fire records. Compared with the base scenario, the burn probability decreased by 73.6% under the intensive scenario, which suggests that improved fire management could significantly reduce the burn probability. This study shows that the BP model can model the effects of fire management activities on the forest landscape level and evaluate the effectiveness of fire management strategies or management measures.

Changing fuel management strategies - The challenge of meeting new information and analysis needs

2001 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan G. Conard ◽  
Timothy Hartzell ◽  
Michael W. Hilbruner ◽  
G. Thomas Zimmerman
Keyword(s):  
Fire Management ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Fuel Management ◽  
Burned Areas ◽  
Ecological Principles ◽  
In Fire

This paper was presented at the conference ‘Integrating spatial technologies and ecological principles for a new age in fire management’, Boise, Idaho, USA, June 1999 ‘The earth, born in fire, baptized by lightning since before life"s beginning, has been and is a fire planet.’ E.V. Komarek Attitudes and policies concerning wildland fire, fire use, and fire management have changed greatly since early European settlers arrived in North America. Active suppression of wildfires accelerated early in the 20th Century, and areas burned dropped dramatically. In recent years, burned areas and cost of fires have begun to increase, in part due to fuel buildups resulting from fire suppression. The importance of fire as an ecosystem process is also being increasingly recognized. These factors are leading to changes in Federal agency fire and fuels management policies, including increased emphasis on use of prescribed fire and other treatments to reduce fuel loads and fire hazard. Changing fire management strategies have highlighted the need for better information and improved risk analysis techniques for setting regional and national priorities, and for monitoring and evaluating the ecological, economic, and social effects and tradeoffs of fuel management treatments and wildfires. The US Department of Interior and USDA Forest Service began the Joint Fire Science Program in 1998 to provide a sound scientific basis for implementing and evaluating fuel management activities. Development of remote sensing and GIS tools will play a key role in enabling land managers to evaluate hazards, monitor changes, and reduce risks to the environment and the public from wildland fires.

scholarly journals Using the Landsat Burned Area Products to Derive Fire History Relevant for Fire Management and Conservation in the State of Florida, Southeastern USA

Fire ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 26
Author(s):  
Casey Teske ◽  
Melanie K. Vanderhoof ◽  
Todd J. Hawbaker ◽  
Joe Noble ◽  
John Kevin Hiers
Keyword(s):  
Prescribed Fire ◽  
Spatial Data ◽  
Fire History ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Behavior ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Behavior Modeling ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Burned Areas ◽  
Burn Probability

Development of comprehensive spatially explicit fire occurrence data remains one of the most critical needs for fire managers globally, and especially for conservation across the southeastern United States. Not only are many endangered species and ecosystems in that region reliant on frequent fire, but fire risk analysis, prescribed fire planning, and fire behavior modeling are sensitive to fire history due to the long growing season and high vegetation productivity. Spatial data that map burned areas over time provide critical information for evaluating management successes. However, existing fire data have undocumented shortcomings that limit their use when detailing the effectiveness of fire management at state and regional scales. Here, we assessed information in existing fire datasets for Florida and the Landsat Burned Area products based on input from the fire management community. We considered the potential of different datasets to track the spatial extents of fires and derive fire history metrics (e.g., time since last burn, fire frequency, and seasonality). We found that burned areas generated by applying a 90% threshold to the Landsat burn probability product matched patterns recorded and observed by fire managers at three pilot areas. We then created fire history metrics for the entire state from the modified Landsat Burned Area product. Finally, to show their potential application for conservation management, we compared fire history metrics across ownerships for natural pinelands, where prescribed fire is frequently applied. Implications of this effort include increased awareness around conservation and fire management planning efforts and an extension of derivative products regionally or globally.

scholarly journals Focus Group as a tool for a participatory construction and development of Integrated Fire Management strategies

2020 ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Carolina Costa Rodrigues ◽  
Wanderley Jorge Da Silveira Junior ◽  
Aloysio Souza De Moura ◽  
Mariana Caroline Moreira Morelli ◽  
Marco Aurélio Leite Fontes
Keyword(s):  
Focus Group ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Management Strategies

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scholarly journals Landscape Approach towards Integrated Conservation and Use of Primeval Forests: The Transboundary Kovda River Catchment in Russia and Finland

Land ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Per Angelstam ◽  
Michael Manton ◽  
Taras Yamelynets ◽  
Ole Sørensen ◽  
Svetlana Kondrateva (Stepanova)
Keyword(s):  
Rural Development ◽  
Cultural Heritage ◽  
Boreal Forests ◽  
Forest Canopy ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Forest Landscape ◽  
Landscape Approach ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Landscape Governance ◽  
The North

Regional clear-felling of naturally dynamic boreal forests has left remote forest landscapes in northern Europe with challenges regarding rural development based on wood mining. However, biodiversity conservation with higher levels of ambition than what is possible in regions with a long forest history, and cultural heritage, offer opportunities for developing new value chains that support rural development. We explored the opportunities for pro-active integrated spatial planning based on: (i) landscapes’ natural and cultural heritage values in the transboundary Kovda River catchment in Russia and Finland; (ii) forest canopy loss as a threat; and (iii) private, public and civil sector stakeholders’ views on the use and non-use values at local to international levels. After a 50-year history of wood mining in Russia, the remaining primeval forest and cultural heritage remnants are located along the pre-1940 Finnish-Russian border. Forest canopy loss was higher in Finland (0.42%/year) than in Russia (0.09%/year), and decreased from the south to the north in both countries. The spatial scales of stakeholders’ use of forest landscapes ranged from stand-scale to the entire catchment of Kovda River in Russia and Finland (~2,600,000 ha). We stress the need to develop an integrated landscape approach that includes: (i) forest landscape goods; (ii) other ecosystem services and values found in intact forest landscapes; and (iii) adaptive local and regional forest landscape governance. Transboundary collaboration offers opportunities for effective knowledge production and learning.

scholarly journals An Overview of The Efficacy of Vegetation Management Alternatives for Conifer Regeneration in Boreal Forests

2011 ◽  
Vol 87 (02) ◽  
pp. 175-200 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Wiensczyk ◽  
Kathie Swift ◽  
Andrée Morneault ◽  
Nelson Thiffault ◽  
Kandyd Szuba ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Treatment Efficacy ◽  
Boreal Forests ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Vegetation Management ◽  
Thermal Treatments ◽  
Mechanical Site Preparation ◽  
Cover Cropping ◽  
Broad Array ◽  
Physical Treatments ◽  
Management Alternatives

In this paper, we discuss the broad array of treatments that could be used to control competitive vegetation in conifer plantations in the boreal forests of Canada. We present vegetation management alternatives screened based on their treatment efficacy, which we defined as their ability to (a) control competitive vegetation and (b) not cause undue damage to conifer seedlings. The treatments reviewed range from pre-harvest (preventative) to post-plant release (reactive) treatments, and are organized into five categories: (i) silvicultural and harvest systems, (ii) physical treatments such as mechanical site preparation, cutting, girdling and mulching; (iii) thermal treatments such as prescribed fire and steaming; (iv) cultural treatments such as seedling culture, cover cropping, and grazing; and (v) chemical and biological spray treatments. We based our assessment of treatment efficacy on previous reviews, expert opinion, and published literature. We conclude on the need to further assess the effectiveness of forest vegetation management strategies in the context of multi-purpose plantations that consider ecological, social and silvicultural objectives.

scholarly journals Effects of policy change on wildland fire management strategies: evidence for a paradigm shift in the western US?

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (10) ◽  
pp. 857 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesse D. Young ◽  
Alexander M. Evans ◽  
Jose M. Iniguez ◽  
Andrea Thode ◽  
Marc D. Meyer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fire Management ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
The United States ◽  
Management Policy ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Western Us ◽  
Strategic Options ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Wildland Fire Management

In 2009, new guidance for wildland fire management in the United States expanded the range of strategic options for managers working to reduce the threat of high-severity wildland fire, improve forest health and respond to a changing climate. Markedly, the new guidance provided greater flexibility to manage wildland fires to meet multiple resource objectives. We use Incident Status Summary reports to understand how wildland fire management strategies have differed across the western US in recent years and how management has changed since the 2009 Guidance for Implementation of Federal Wildland Fire Management Policy. When controlling for confounding variation, we found the 2009 Policy Guidance along with other concurrent advances in fire management motivated an estimated 27 to 73% increase in the number of fires managed with expanded strategic options, with only limited evidence of an increase in size or annual area burned. Fire weather captured a manager’s intent and allocation of fire management resources relative to burning conditions, where a manager’s desire and ability to suppress is either complemented by fire weather, at odds with fire weather, or put aside due to other priorities. We highlight opportunities to expand the use of strategic options in fire-adapted forests to improve fuel heterogeneity.

scholarly journals Identifying Forest Fire Driving Factors and Related Impacts in China Using Random Forest Algorithm

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 507
Author(s):  
Wenyuan Ma ◽  
Zhongke Feng ◽  
Zhuxin Cheng ◽  
Shilin Chen ◽  
Fengge Wang
Keyword(s):  
Random Forest ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Driving Factors ◽  
Socioeconomic Variables ◽  
Forest Fire Management ◽  
Geographical Regions

Reasonable forest fire management measures can effectively reduce the losses caused by forest fires and forest fire driving factors and their impacts are important aspects that should be considered in forest fire management. We used the random forest model and MODIS Global Fire Atlas dataset (2010~2016) to analyse the impacts of climate, topographic, vegetation and socioeconomic variables on forest fire occurrence in six geographical regions in China. The results show clear regional differences in the forest fire driving factors and their impacts in China. Climate variables are the forest fire driving factors in all regions of China, vegetation variable is the forest fire driving factor in all other regions except the Northwest region and topographic variables and socioeconomic variables are only the driving factors of forest fires in a few regions (Northwest and Southwest regions). The model predictive capability is good: the AUC values are between 0.830 and 0.975, and the prediction accuracy is between 70.0% and 91.4%. High fire hazard areas are concentrated in the Northeast region, Southwest region and East China region. This research will aid in providing a national-scale understanding of forest fire driving factors and fire hazard distribution in China and help policymakers to design fire management strategies to reduce potential fire hazards.

From fire suppression to fire management: Advances and resistances to changes in fire policy in the savannas of Brazil and Venezuela

2018 ◽  
Vol 185 (1) ◽  
pp. 10-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ludivine Eloy ◽  
Bibiana A. Bilbao ◽  
Jayalaxshmi Mistry ◽  
Isabel B. Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
Fire Management ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Fire Policy ◽  
In Fire

Effective fire suppression in boreal forests

2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 772-786 ◽  
Author(s):  
S G Cumming
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forests ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Fire History ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Operational Effectiveness ◽  
Logistic Regression Models ◽  
Area Burned ◽  
Large Fires ◽  
Northeastern Alberta

Fire suppression is (functionally) effective insofar as it reduces area burned. In North American boreal forests, fire regimes and historical records are such that this effect cannot be detected or estimated directly. I present an indirect approach, proceeding from the practice of initial attack (IA), which is intended to limit the proportion of "large" fires. I analysed IA's (operational) effectiveness by a controlled retrospective study of fire-history data for an approximately 86 000 km2 region of boreal forest in northeastern Alberta, Canada, from 1968 to 1998 (31 years). Over this interval, various improvements to IA practice, including a 1983 change in management strategy, created a natural experiment. I tested the results with multiple logistic regression models of the annual probabilities of a fire becoming larger than 3 and 200 ha. Annual fire counts (Nt) were a surrogate for fire weather and peak daily counts within years (arrival load). Measured by odds ratios, mean IA effectiveness against 3- and 200-ha fires increased in 1983 by factors of 2.02 (95% CI = 1.70–2.40) and 2.41 (95% CI = 1.69–3.45), respectively. Prior to 1983, the functional response to Nt was consistent with saturation of IA capacity at high arrival loads. From 1983–1998, effectiveness was independent of Nt. I introduce the proportional reduction in area burned (impact) as a measure of functional effectiveness and state conditions under which it can be estimated from the regression models. Over 1983–1998, if suppressed and actual fires were comparable, relative IA impact ([Formula: see text]) was 0.58 (95% CI = 0.34–0.74) and area burned was reduced by 457 500 ha. If fires larger than 1 × 105, 1 × 104, or 1 × 103 ha are assumed to be unpreventable, [Formula: see text] declines to 0.46, 025, or 0.08, respectively, but there is no evidence this is the case.

Linking tree rings, summer aridity, and regional fire data: an example from the boreal forests of the Komi Republic, East European Russia

2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (11) ◽  
pp. 2327-2339 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Drobyshev ◽  
Mats Niklasson
Keyword(s):  
Tree Ring ◽  
Boreal Forests ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Siberian Larch ◽  
Komi Republic ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
Fire Activity

To evaluate the potential use of tree-ring data as a proxy for fire activity at the scale of a large boreal region, we analyzed a set of regional tree-ring chronologies of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica L.), a spatially implicit annual fire record, and monthly climate data for the Komi Republic for the period 1950–1990. In most years, annually burned area was below 0.001% of the republic's forested area and reached up to 0.7% during fire-prone years. Principal components (PC) of summer aridity resolved 64.2% of the annual variation in the number of fires, 12.2% in the average fire size, and 59.2% in the annually burned area. In turn, tree-ring PCs explained 65.2% of variation in fire-related weather PCs. Dendrochronological reconstruction of the annual number of fires and of the log-transformed annually burned area predicted 27.0% and 40.1% of the high-frequency variance of these variables, respectively. Coefficient of efficiency, a measure of reconstruction usefulness, reached 0.081 (number of fires) and 0.315 (annual area burned), supporting the obtained index as a realistic proxy for regional fire activity. Decadal variation in coefficient of efficiency values suggested improved monitoring accuracy since 1960 and more effective fire suppression during the last studied decade (1980–1990).

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