Allee effects and compensatory population dynamics within a stock complex

2000 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
pp. 513-517 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth T Frank ◽  
David Brickman
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Simulation Model ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Complex Structure ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Allee Effects ◽  
Biophysical Modeling ◽  
Aggregated Data ◽  
Apparent Prevalence ◽  
Spawning Stock

Sparked by the observation that (i) many collapsed stocks have failed to recover despite the apparent prevalence of compensatory population dynamics and (ii) many stocks have a complex structure, we devised a simulation model illustrating that the underlying behavior of substocks is masked when the data are aggregated and evaluated at the scale of the management unit. The model consisted of several substocks within a stock complex, each having its own stock and recruitment (S-R) relationship with Allee effects. Incorporation of Allee effects into the S-R relationship was achieved by specifying a critical spawning stock biomass threshold below which no recruitment occurred. The simulation model revealed that it was possible for the aggregate S-R relationship to appear compensatory, even though no substock exhibited this behavior. If the conclusions we draw from our modeling are correct, biological reference points developed from aggregated data from multiple substocks and used in conventional fisheries management and stock assessment models are likely to be inaccurate and possibly nonconservative. More research in support of the delineation of substock structure, biophysical modeling, and metapopulation theory is advocated.

Incorporating habitat preference into the stock assessment and management of blue marlin (Makaira nigricans) in the Pacific Ocean

2012 ◽  
Vol 63 (7) ◽  
pp. 565 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nan-Jay Su ◽  
Chi-Lu Sun ◽  
André E. Punt ◽  
Su-Zan Yeh ◽  
Gerard DiNardo
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Habitat Preference ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Ecosystem Approach ◽  
Maximum Sustainable Yield ◽  
Blue Marlin ◽  
Makaira Nigricans ◽  
Biological Variables ◽  
Population Dynamics Model ◽  
Spawning Stock

Stock assessments that include a spatial component or relate population dynamics to environmental conditions can be considered one way of implementing an ecosystem approach to fisheries. A spatially-structured population dynamics model that takes account of habitat preference is developed and then applied to Pacific blue marlin (Makaira nigricans), as they prefer certain habitats and migrate seasonally. The model is fitted to fishery catch-rate and size data, along with information on the relative density of the population over space derived from a habitat preference model fitted to oceanographic and biological variables. Results show that blue marlin are more abundant in tropical waters, and females account for most of the biomass. Assessments that allow for environmental factors, movement dynamics and sexual dimorphism indicate that this population is in an over-exploited state, with current spawning stock biomass below the level corresponding to maximum sustainable yield (SMSY) and current fishing mortality exceeding that needed to achieve MSY (FMSY). A risk analysis based on samples from a Bayesian posterior distribution suggests that the population will remain above SMSY after 20 years if exploitation rates are below the level corresponding to FMSY.

Recruitment variation in abalone: Its importance to fisheries management

1995 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 555 ◽  
Author(s):  
PE McShane
Keyword(s):  
Egg Production ◽  
Field Experiments ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
High Fecundity ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Recruitment Failure ◽  
Spawning Stock ◽  
Stock Recruitment ◽  
Many Sources

Recruitment failure has been implicated in the decline of several abalone fisheries. Traditionally, fisheries scientists invoke theoretical stock-recruitment relationships to predict trends in abundance of an exploited stock under various harvest regimes. The empirical evidence in support of a positive relationship between spawning stock and recruits is not strong. A further problem in interpretation of such relationships is that both 'stock' and 'recruitment' have various definitions in fisheries and ecological literature. The definition of a stock for abalone is not clear. As emphasized in this review, which considers each stage in the life history of abalone, the abundance of spawners is one of many sources of variation in recruitment. The evidence for invertebrates, particularly those with high fecundity, is that recruitment varies independently of the abundance of spawners. This is also the case for abalone, where recruits have been measured as the density of immediate post-settlement individuals, juveniles, or as adults entering the exploitable stock. A problem with stock-recruitment hypotheses is that they have intuitive appeal. It is considered 'dangerous' to manage fisheries under the assumption that a reduction in the number of spawners by fishing will not affect recruitment. Such danger to abalone stocks has been more recently assessed by egg-per-recruit analyses, whereby various harvest strategies are examined relative to reference points for egg production. These studies are reviewed and assessed relative to the often conflicting aims of managers and scientists. This review of studies of recruitment variation in abalone emphasizes the need for a more rigorous, autecological approach to stock assessment in which field experiments are conducted over realistic spatial and temporal scales, permitting robust testing of hypotheses.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the robustness of maximum sustainable yield based management strategies to variations in carrying capacity or migration pattern of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus)

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (5) ◽  
pp. 837-847 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurence T Kell ◽  
Jean-Marc Fromentin
Keyword(s):  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Management Strategy ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Maximum Sustainable Yield ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Sustainable Yield ◽  
Size Limit ◽  
Atlantic Bluefin Tuna ◽  
Spawning Stock

In this study, we examine the performances of current stock assessment methods with respect to their ability to (i) provide estimates of maximum sustainable yield (MSY), FMSY, and BMSY and (ii) assess stock status and exploitation level relative to MSY targets. The robustness of the current International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT) management strategy is then evaluated with respect to uncertainty about the true population dynamics and contrasted with a simpler management strategy based solely on a size limit. Reference points are more robust to dynamic uncertainty than the estimates of absolute values and trends in F and spawning stock biomass. However, their performances depend on the underlying dynamics (they perform better when fluctuations come from changes in the carrying capacity than migration) and on when they are implemented relative to the intrinsic cycle of the population. Reference points based on F were less biased and more precise than those based on biomass and (or) yield. Although F0.1 appeared to be the best proxy for FMSY, it cannot indicate past and current levels of exploitation relative to FMSY when there is uncertainty about the dynamics. Finally, the F0.1 management strategy of ICCAT performed only slightly better than a simpler strategy based on size limit and led to lower catch levels.

scholarly journals Population dynamics and stock assessment of grey sharpnose shark Rhizoprionodon oligolinx Springer, 1964 (Chondrichthyes: Carcharhinidae) from the north-west coast of India

2017 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
G. B. Purushottama ◽  
Gyanaranjan Dash ◽  
Thakur Das ◽  
K. V. Akhilesh ◽  
Shoba Joe Kizhakudan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Total Mortality ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
Stock Biomass ◽  
Spawning Stock ◽  
Yield Per Recruit ◽  
Peak Phase

The life history and exploitation parameters of Rhizoprionodon oligolinx Springer, 1964 were assessed using commercial landing data of 2012-2015 from Mumbai waters of India to understand the population dynamics and stock status of the species. The average annual landing of the species was estimated to be 383 t, which formed about 9.1% of the total shark landings of Maharashtra. L∞, K and t0 estimated were 97.1 cm, 0.47 yr-1 and -0.79 yr respectively. Total mortality (Z), fishing mortality (F) and natural mortality (M) rates were estimated as 2.16 yr-1, 1.48 yr-1 and 0.69 yr-1 respectively. The length at capture (L50), length at female maturity (Lm50) and male maturity (Lm50) were estimated as 49.7, 62.3 and 59.5 cm respectively, which indicated that most of the sharks entered peak phase of exploitation before attaining sexual maturity. Length-weight relationship indicated allometric growth (b>3) for the species. The species was found to be a continuous breeder and showed peak recruitment during April. The current exploitation rate (Ecur) was found to be 0.68, which is lower than Emax estimated for the species using Beverton and Holt yield per recruit analysis. Thompson and Bell prediction model showed that at current exploitation level, the biomass (B) has reduced to 32% of virgin biomass (B0) where as, the spawning stock biomass (SSB) has reduced to 16% of the virgin spawning stock biomass (SSB0). Hence the exploitation level for the species should be reduced by 40% that will ensure the availability of SSB at a relatively safer 30% level to rebuild the stock for long term sustainability of the resource.

scholarly journals The advantage of explicitly incorporating predation mortality into age-structured stock assessment models: an application for Atlantic mackerel

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (3) ◽  
pp. 445-454 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Moustahfid ◽  
J. S. Link ◽  
W. J. Overholtz ◽  
M. C. Tyrrell
Keyword(s):  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Fish Predation ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Atlantic Mackerel ◽  
Predation Mortality ◽  
Spawning Stock ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
The Impact

AbstractMoustahfid, H., Link, J. S., Overholtz, W. J., and Tyrrell, M. C. 2009. The advantage of explicitly incorporating predation mortality into age-structured stock assessment models: an application for Atlantic mackerel. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 445–454. An age-structured assessment programme (ASAP) that explicitly incorporates predation mortality was applied to Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) in the Northwest Atlantic. Predatory removals were modelled in the same manner as fishing mortality, with a comparable set of time-series, to produce estimates of predation mortality at age and for each year. Results from the analysis showed that incorporating predation into a mackerel stock assessment model notably altered model outputs. When excluding explicitly modelled rates of predation, the model underestimated the magnitude and uncertainty in spawning-stock biomass (SSB) and recruitment. Further, the rates of predation mortality varied across time and were higher for younger fish. Predation mortality was higher than fishing mortality for fish aged 1 year, approximately equal for 2-year-olds, and lower for older fish (3 years and older). Biological reference points for Atlantic mackerel differed considerably when predation mortality was included. For example, SSBMSY was more than twice as high in the model where predation was incorporated than in the fisheries-only model. Although there are several caveats to the predation model outputs, chief of which is that the estimates are conservative because some mackerel predators were excluded, the results demonstrate the feasibility of executing such an approach with an extant tool. The approach presented here ultimately has the advantage of detecting, and upon detection parsing out, the impact of predators relative to fisheries and has the potential to provide useful information to those interested in small pelagic fish and their associated fisheries.

scholarly journals Maturity and growth population dynamics of Norway pout (Trisopterus esmarkii) in the North Sea, Skagerrak, and Kattegat

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (9) ◽  
pp. 1899-1914 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gwladys Lambert ◽  
J. Rasmus Nielsen ◽  
Lena I. Larsen ◽  
Henrik Sparholt
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Commercial Catch ◽  
The North ◽  
Stock Biomass ◽  
Spawning Stock ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Immature Fish

Abstract Lambert, G., Nielsen, J. R., Larsen, L. I., and Sparholt, H. 2009. Maturity and growth population dynamics of Norway pout (Trisopterus esmarkii) in the North Sea, Skagerrak, and Kattegat. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1899–1914. The population dynamics of the Norway pout stock in the North Sea are investigated by statistical analyses, and GIS of ICES International Bottom Trawl Surveys (IBTS) and Danish commercial catch data from 1983 to 2006. The stock spawns mainly around mid-February along the northeastern English and Scottish coasts and between Shetland and Norway. Sex ratios indicate that males, which mature younger than females (age-at-50%-maturity, respectively, 1.2 and 1.5 years), migrate out of the Skagerrak–Kattegat to the spawning grounds before females. There is a decrease in the 2+-group maturity ratios as well as in weight and female length from before to after spawning. The results indicate spawning mortality. Only some 20% of the 1-group reaches maturity in the first quarter, which is higher than assumed in the stock assessment. Although the maturity ogives are variable over time, this difference should be taken into account when estimating spawning-stock biomass in routine assessments. Growth is also variable, with a tendency for male maximum length to be smaller than that of females, and immature fish to be smaller than mature ones in each age group. The juvenile growth rate is higher when the stock density is low and results in a reduced age-at-50%-maturity. Besides these intraspecific patterns, the growth rates show interspecific links to stock sizes of the important predators: cod, haddock, and whiting.

scholarly journals From model-based prescriptive advice to indicator-based interactive advice

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (4) ◽  
pp. 768-774 ◽  
Author(s):  
Verena M. Trenkel ◽  
Marie-Joëlle Rochet ◽  
Benoît Mesnil
Keyword(s):  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Alternative Form ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Management Actions ◽  
Management Objectives ◽  
Spawning Stock ◽  
Management Advice ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Prescriptive Advice

Abstract Trenkel, V. M., Rochet, M-J., and Mesnil, B. 2007. From model-based prescriptive advice to indicator-based interactive advice. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 64: 768–774. Traditional advice for fisheries management, especially in the ICES world, focuses on short-term stock projections relative to reference points. Primarily, two numbers, spawning-stock biomass and fishing mortality rate, are considered in the advice, although a range of biological processes are included in the stock assessment models. We propose an alternative form of final advice that would not rely on stock predictions and only two numbers, but on a suite of indicators that are combined to provide stock assessment and management advice. For a single stock, the approach consists of monitoring a set of indicators of population state and fishing pressure. Stock reference status at some time in the past is assessed, based on these indicators and/or other available information. Changes in indicator values after this reference time are then estimated, interpreted, and finally combined into a diagnostic that highlights possible causes of the changes observed. After considering management objectives, appropriate management actions can then be proposed. The proposed approach is illustrated for anglerfish stocks in the Celtic Sea and the Bay of Biscay.

scholarly journals Population dynamics of an invasive species Carassius auratus in the Shatt Al-Arab River, Iraq

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 384-389
Author(s):  
Abdullah N. Abood ◽  
Abdul-Razak M. Mohamed
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Carassius Auratus ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Growth Parameters ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Relative Yield ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Fish Length ◽  
Exploitation Rate ◽  
Precautionary Measures

The population dynamics of the crucian carp, Carassius auratus in the Shatt Al-Arab River, Iraq was studied from November 2015 to October 2016 with monthly samples collected by different fishing gears. The FAO-ICLARM Stock Assessment Tool (FiSAT II) software was used for the mathematical analysis. Length-weight relationship was calculated as W= 0.0149L3.065 for fish length 4.6 to 26.8 cm. Growth parameters L∞, K and Ø were computed as 29.1 cm, 0.51 and 2.635. The total (Z), natural (M) and fishing (F) mortalities were 2.69, 1.09 and 1.60, respectively. Exploitation rate (E) was 0.59. Length at first capture (Lc) was found to be 10.04 cm. C. auratus displayed one main pulse of annual recruitment. The relative yield per recruit analysis revealed that the exploitation rate (E) of C. auratus was higher than the biological target reference points E0.1 and equivalent to Emax. It could be concluded that the C. auratus stock in the Shatt Al-Arab River is operating nearby the exploited situation and needs some precautionary measures to avoid the overexploitation by activating the national law of fishing, exploiting and protecting aquatic resources, in particular preventing illegal fishing methods and follow up the execution of the closed season to prevent the decline of our fish resources.

scholarly journals Choosing the observational likelihood in state-space stock assessment models

2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (5) ◽  
pp. 779-789 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoffer Moesgaard Albertsen ◽  
Anders Nielsen ◽  
Uffe Høgsbro Thygesen
Keyword(s):  
State Space ◽  
Stock Assessment ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Model Fit ◽  
Total Allowable Catch ◽  
Stock Biomass ◽  
Spawning Stock ◽  
Using Data

Data used in stock assessment models result from combinations of biological, ecological, fishery, and sampling processes. Since different types of errors propagate through these processes, it can be difficult to identify a particular family of distributions for modelling errors on observations a priori. By implementing several observational likelihoods, modelling both numbers- and proportions-at-age, in an age-based state-space stock assessment model, we compare the model fit for each choice of likelihood along with the implications for spawning stock biomass and mean fishing mortality. We propose using AIC intervals based on fitting the full observational model for comparing different observational likelihoods. Using data from four stocks, we show that the model fit is improved by modelling the correlation of observations within years. However, the best choice of observational likelihood differs for different stocks, and the choice is important for the short-term conclusions drawn from the assessment model; in particular, the choice can influence total allowable catch advise based on reference points.

scholarly journals The influence of density in population dynamics with strong and weak Allee effect

2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamrun Nahar Keya ◽  
Md. Kamrujjaman ◽  
Md. Shafiqul Islam
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Allee Effect ◽  
Global Bifurcation ◽  
Reaction Diffusion ◽  
Logistic Growth ◽  
Allee Effects ◽  
Reaction Diffusion Model ◽  
Positive Steady States ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn this paper, we consider a reaction–diffusion model in population dynamics and study the impact of different types of Allee effects with logistic growth in the heterogeneous closed region. For strong Allee effects, usually, species unconditionally die out and an extinction-survival situation occurs when the effect is weak according to the resource and sparse functions. In particular, we study the impact of the multiplicative Allee effect in classical diffusion when the sparsity is either positive or negative. Negative sparsity implies a weak Allee effect, and the population survives in some domain and diverges otherwise. Positive sparsity gives a strong Allee effect, and the population extinct without any condition. The influence of Allee effects on the existence and persistence of positive steady states as well as global bifurcation diagrams is presented. The method of sub-super solutions is used for analyzing equations. The stability conditions and the region of positive solutions (multiple solutions may exist) are presented. When the diffusion is absent, we consider the model with and without harvesting, which are initial value problems (IVPs) and study the local stability analysis and present bifurcation analysis. We present a number of numerical examples to verify analytical results.

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