On Managing Variable Marine Fisheries

1987 ◽  
Vol 44 (7) ◽  
pp. 1370-1375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wayne M. Getz ◽  
Robert C. Francis ◽  
Gordon L. Swartzman

Marine fisheries are difficult to manage because they are highly variable; yet the stock must be protected from over exploitation and possible collapse. Here we demonstrate that the most important source of uncertainty in estimating long-term productivity of a fishery is the degree of density dependence in the stock–recruitment relationship and not the environmental factors that influence annual recruitment rates. We evaluate the performance of three harvest policies in managing dynamically contrasting fisheries and conclude that close to maximum expected sustainable yield can be obtained by policies that have very different implications for short-term yields. In stochastic fisheries, the variability inherent in the stock can be ignored in determining optimal effort levels or it can be transferred into the fishery by allowing yield and effort levels to vary considerably. Thus it is relatively easy for the manager to ensure long-term maximization of yield. The hard problem is finding a suitable compromise between short-term stability of the fishery and long-term viability of the stock.

mSystems ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Giulia T. Uhr ◽  
Lenka Dohnalová ◽  
Christoph A. Thaiss

ABSTRACT The intestinal microbiota contains trillions of commensal microorganisms that shape multiple aspects of host physiology and disease. In contrast to the host’s genome, the microbiome is amenable to change over the course of an organism’s lifetime, providing an opportunity to therapeutically modulate the microbiome’s impact on human pathophysiology. In this Perspective, we highlight environmental factors that regulate the temporal dynamics of the intestinal microbiome, with a particular focus on the different time scales at which they act. We propose that the identification of transient and intermediate states of microbiome responses to perturbations is essential for understanding the rules that govern the behavior of this ecosystem. The delineation of microbiome dynamics is also helpful for distinguishing cause and effect in microbiome responses to environmental stimuli. Understanding the dimension of time in host-microbiome interactions is therefore critical for therapeutic strategies that aim at short-term or long-term engineering of the intestinal microbial community.


2006 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 149-159 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle W. Shertzer ◽  
Michael H. Prager

Abstract Shertzer, K. W., and Prager, M. H. 2007. Delay in fishery management: diminished yield, longer rebuilding, and increased probability of stock collapse. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 64: 149–159. When a stock is depleted, catch reductions are in order, but typically they are implemented only after considerable delay. Delay occurs because fishery management is political, and stricter management, which involves short-term economic loss, is unpopular. Informed of stock decline, managers often hesitate, perhaps pondering the uncertainty of scientific advice, perhaps hoping that a good year class will render action moot. However, management delay itself can have significant costs, when it exacerbates stock decline. To examine the biological consequences of delay, we simulated a spectrum of fisheries under various degrees of delay in management. Increased delay required larger catch reductions, for more years, to recover benchmark stock status (here, spawning-stock biomass at maximum sustainable yield). Management delay caused stock collapse most often under two conditions: (1) when the stock–recruitment relationship was depensatory, or (2) when catchability, unknown to the assessment, was density-dependent and fishing took juveniles. In contrast, prompt management resulted in quicker recoveries and higher cumulative yields from simulated fisheries. Benefits to stock biomass and fishery yield can be high from implementing management promptly.


1993 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 589 ◽  
Author(s):  
N Caputi

The fundamental biological issue for fisheries management is undoubtedly the prevention of recruitment overfishing, i.e. to prevent the spawning stock from being depleted by fishing to a level where it significantly reduces the abundance of recruits. However, for many important fisheries, particularly crustacean fisheries, the stock-recruitment relationship (SRR) is not known. In many cases, research on recruitment has concentrated on short-term studies of recruitment processes to the exclusion of research into the SRR which requires development of long term databases. This paper examines techniques required to model the SRR, using case studies from Western Australian crustacean fisheries. Outlines of potential problems such as errors and biases in the measurement of stock and recruitment indices, the time series nature of the data, and lack of stationarity in the data, are given with possible solutions. Environmental effects, which can greatly influence the abundance of recruits, may need to be determined before the underlying SRR can be seen. Some of the advantages and possible disadvantages of incorporating environmental variables in the SRR are examined. A thorough assessment of SRRs also involves a study of the impact of fishing on the stock and the effect of stochastic variation using simulations. The evaluation of the SRR requires a multi-disciplinary approach which includes the fields of biology, environment, economics, population dynamics and statistics.


Author(s):  
M. Mashuri ◽  
R. Rahman

The aging process of asphalt in the pavement layers of asphalt concrete road occurs when mixing in the Asphalt Mixing Plant and during the road service period. The asphalt aging process when mixing is called short-term aging and aging during the road service period is called long-term aging. AC - WC mixture is a wear layer and it is on the top layer of the surface which allows characteristics change that are influenced by several environmental factors (air, temperature and sunlight). This study aims to know the effect of asphalt aging on the characteristics of AC - WC mixture with Marshall method on some asphalt content  that are 4.5%, 5.0%, 5.5%, 6.0%, 6, 5% and 7.0%. For testing on short-term aging (Short - Term Oven Aging, STOA) is by testing the mixture specimen AC - WC at 135o C before solidified for 4 hours and for long-term aging (Long - Term Oven Aging, LTOA) was carried out by testing the mixture specimen AC - WC at 85o C for 2 - 5 days. The results of this study found that asphalt aging had an effect on the characteristics of AC - WC mixture. Values of density, VFB, stability, flow tend to decrease with age. While VIM and VMA values tend to increase with age. Aging caused the mixture to became more rigid.


Author(s):  
Daniel D. Hutto ◽  
Erik Myin

Chapter 2 introduces REC’s Equal Partner Principle, according to which invoking neural, bodily, and environmental factors all make equally important contributions when it comes to explaining cognitive activity. In line with that principle, it is made clear how REC can accept that cognitive capacities depend on structural changes that occur inside organisms and their brains, without understanding such changes in information processing and representationalist terms. This chapter explicates the Hard Problem of Content, aka the HPC, as basis for a compelling argument for REC. The HPC is a seemingly intractable theoretical puzzle for defenders of unrestricted CIC. A straight solution to the HPC requires explaining how it is possible to get from informational foundations that are noncontentful to a theory of mental content using only the resources of a respectable explanatory naturalism that calls on the resources of the hard sciences. It is revealed how the need to deal with the HPC can be avoided by adopting REC’s revolutionary take on basic cognition, and why going this way has advantages over other possible ways of handling the HPC.


2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 253-259
Author(s):  
Rahman Shiri ◽  
Aapo Hiilamo ◽  
Olli Pietiläinen ◽  
Minna Mänty ◽  
Ossi Rahkonen ◽  
...  

Abstract Background We determined whether favourable changes in physical workload and environmental factors reduce sickness absence (SA) days using observational cohort data as a pseudo-experiment. Methods The data from the Finnish Helsinki Health Study included three cohorts of employees of the City of Helsinki [2000/2002–07 (N = 2927), 2007–12 (N = 1686) and 2012–17 (N = 1118), altogether 5731 observations]. First, we estimated the propensity score of favourable changes (reduction in exposures) in physical workload and environmental factors during each 5-year follow-up period on the baseline survey characteristics using logistic regression. Second, we created and stabilized inverse probability of treatment weights for each participant using the propensity scores. Lastly, we used generalized linear model and fitted negative binomial regression models for over-dispersed count data to estimate whether the favourable changes decrease the risk of short-term (1–3 days), intermediate-term (4–14 days) and long-term (>14 days) SA using employer’s register data. Results During a 5-year follow-up, 11% of the participants had favourable changes in physical workload factors, 13% in environmental factors and 8% in both factors. The incidence of short-term, intermediate-term and long-term SA were lower in employees with favourable workplace changes compared with those without such changes. The reductions were largest for long-term SA. Reporting favourable changes in both workload and environmental factors reduced the number of SA days by 41% within 1 year after the changes and by 32% within 2 years after the changes. Conclusion This pseudo-experimental study suggests that improving physical working conditions reduces SA.


2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (4) ◽  
pp. 1296-1305 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rob van Gemert ◽  
Ken H Andersen

Abstract Currently applied fisheries models and stock assessments rely on the assumption that density-dependent regulation only affects processes early in life, as described by stock–recruitment relationships. However, many fish stocks also experience density-dependent processes late in life, such as density-dependent adult growth. Theoretical studies have found that, for stocks which experience strong late-in-life density dependence, maximum sustainable yield (MSY) is obtained with a small fishery size-at-entry that also targets juveniles. This goes against common fisheries advice, which dictates that primarily adults should be fished. This study aims to examine whether the strength of density-dependent growth in actual fish stocks is sufficiently strong to reduce optimal fishery size-at-entry to below size-at-maturity. A size-structured model is fitted to three stocks that have shown indications of late-in-life density-dependent growth: North Sea plaice (Pleuronectes platessa), Northeast Atlantic (NEA) mackerel (Scomber scombrus), and Baltic sprat (Sprattus sprattus balticus). For all stocks, the model predicts exploitation at MSY with a large size-at-entry into the fishery, indicating that late-in-life density dependence in fish stocks is generally not strong enough to warrant the targeting of juveniles. This result lends credibility to the practise of predominantly targeting adults in spite of the presence of late-in-life density-dependent growth.


1992 ◽  
Vol 65 (3) ◽  
pp. 601-659 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan G. Veirh

Abstract For any specific tire use condition, treadwear performance is influenced by three main factor categories: (1), tire construction; (2), tread materials; and (3), environmental and vehicle use conditions. Tire construction factors are—generic type (bias, belted-bias, radial), tread pattern groove void level, and geometric shape, i.e., aspect ratio. The relative importance of nominal variations in each of these factors for treadwear performance is 100, 46, and 39, respectively. Performance improves for a change from bias to radial; high to low groove void; and high to low aspect ratio. The combined influence of generic type, aspect ratio, and other internal construction features (e.g., belt stiffness) can be described by one parameter, the ratio of the treadband edgewise bending stiffness, KBo and the carcass (spring) stiffness, Kc. Treadlife is a direct linear function of this ratio. Treadwear compound or material performance is a function of the rubber glass-transition temperature (weighted avg. for blends), and the degree of reinforcement which is dictated by the carbon-black structure, surface area, and surface chemistry, in addition to the amount of black in the compound. The effect of each of these is a complex function of (i), the severity of tire use (e.g., cornering intensities) and (ii), the long term (seasonal) and short term (daily) environmental factors of pavement microtexture (0.01 mm scale) and ambient temperature. Precipitation directly influences microtexture level through a chemical etching of the pavement aggregate particles. Increased Tg and carbon-black reinforcement can improve or degrade treadwear performance depending on the external factors of pavement microtexture and ambient temperature and also on the general severity of tire use. Treadwear performance is also influenced by the degradation characteristics of the tread compound. Degradation propensity is influenced by crosslink structure and general susceptibility to oxidation. High wear rates are encountered for compounds cured with high-sulfur cure systems (high crosslink polysulfide content) and with low levels of antioxidant. Substantial evidence exists to support a “two-mechanism” theory of rubber abrasion. Mechanism 1 is predominant when the rubber tread element experiences highly elastic surface deformations induced by frictional contact with the pavement asperities. Rubber particles are removed by a tear-tensile rupture process. Mechanism 2 is predominant when the rubber experiences a plastic or rigid body type of contact with the pavement asperities. This contact exists on a smaller scale (reduced deformation domain) and particles are removed by an abrasive-cutting action. Mechanism 1 is called “E-Wear”; Mechanism 2 is called “P-Wear”. E-wear is favored by high temperatures, low microtexture pavements, soft (low Tg) compounds with low reinforcement levels. P-wear is favored by high microtexture, low ambient temperatures, hard (high Tg) compounds with high levels of reinforcement. The confusing treadwear performance frequently encountered for compounds—when tested at different locations, at different times, with substantial treadwear index changes, and outright reversals—can be rationally explained on the basis of a shift of the predominant mechanism. These shifts are due to changes in the environmental factors and tire-use severity as tires are tested at different locations over varying seasonal periods. Microtexture follows a seasonal cyclic pattern; high in winter and low in summer. Ambient temperature follows an opposite cyclic pattern. Short term changes (daily ) in both microtexture and temperature occur within the long-term seasonal periods. These changes have to be accommodated in interpreting treadwear performance.


2016 ◽  
Vol 39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary C. Potter

AbstractRapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) of words or pictured scenes provides evidence for a large-capacity conceptual short-term memory (CSTM) that momentarily provides rich associated material from long-term memory, permitting rapid chunking (Potter 1993; 2009; 2012). In perception of scenes as well as language comprehension, we make use of knowledge that briefly exceeds the supposed limits of working memory.


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