Progressive failure of the Carsington Dam: a numerical study

The mechanism of progressive failure is well understood as one which involves nonuniform straining of a strain-weakening material. Traditional limit equilibrium analysis cannot be used alone to obtain a rational solution for progressive failure problems because the deformation of the structure must be taken into account in the analysis. The failure of the Carsington Dam during construction in 1984 has been attributed to progressive failure of the underlying yellow clay and the dam core materials. The dam was monitored extensively prior to failure, and an elaborate geotechnical investigation was undertaken after failure. The limit equilibrium analysis indicated that the factors of safety were over 1.4 using peak strength of intact clay material or 1.2 based on reduced strength accounting for preshearing of the yellow clay layer. Factors of safety were found to be less than unity if residual strengths were used. The actual factor of safety at failure was, of course, equal to one. By using the finite element analysis with strain-weakening models, the extent and degree of weakening along the potential slip surface were calculated. The calculated shear strength was then used in the limit equilibrium analysis, and the factor of safety was found to be 1.05, which is very close to the actual value of 1.0. More importantly, the mechanism of failure and the initiation and propagation of the shear zones were captured in the finite element analysis. It was also found that accounting explicitly for pore-water pressure effects using the effective stress approach in the finite element and limit equilibrium analyses provides more realistic simulations of the failure process of the structure than analyses based on total stresses. Key words : progressive failure, strain softening, finite element analysis, dams.