Overview of the International Crown Fire Modelling Experiment (ICFME)

2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (8) ◽  
pp. 1543-1547 ◽  
Author(s):  
B J Stocks ◽  
M E Alexander ◽  
R A Lanoville
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Western World ◽  
Crown Fire ◽  
Forest Research ◽  
Fire Propagation ◽  
Fire Modelling ◽  
Crown Fires ◽  
The Us ◽  
Modelling Experiment

The International Crown Fire Modelling Experiment (ICFME), carried out between 1995 and 2001 in Canada's Northwest Territories, involved 18 experimental high-intensity crown fires, with more than 100 participants representing 30 organizations from 14 countries. ICFME has provided valuable new data and insights into the nature and characteristics of crowning forest fires, which will assist in addressing fire management problems and opportunities affecting both people and ecosystems in future decades. ICFME evolved as the result of a number of converging issues: the recognition that the US and Canada could not continue separate approaches to fire behaviour model development, the opening of Russia to the western world, increased communication, and the formation of international associations to facilitate collaboration. While the initial impetus for ICFME was the desire to improve the physical modeling of crown fire propagation and spread, the project also created the opportunity to examine many other aspects and impacts of crown fires. This special issue of the Canadian Journal of Forest Research devoted to ICFME is intended to summarize most of the major research results from the project.

Crown fire behaviour in a northern jack pine – black spruce forest

2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (8) ◽  
pp. 1548-1560 ◽  
Author(s):  
B J Stocks ◽  
M E Alexander ◽  
B M Wotton ◽  
C N Stefner ◽  
M D Flannigan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Black Spruce ◽  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Crown Fire ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Fire Modelling ◽  
Crown Fires ◽  
Floor Layer ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
High Degree

This paper reports on the behaviour of 10 experimental crown fires conducted between 1997 and 2000 during the International Crown Fire Modelling Experiment (ICFME) in Canada's Northwest Territories. The primary goal of ICFME was a replicated series of high-intensity crown fires designed to validate and improve existing theoretical and empirical models of crown fire behaviour. Fire behaviour characteristics were typical for fully developed boreal forest crown fires, with fires advancing at 15–70 m/min, consuming significant quantities of fuel (2.8–5.5 kg/m2) and releasing vast amounts of thermal heat energy. The resulting flame fronts commonly extended 25–40 m above the ground with head fire intensities up to 90 000 kW/m. Depth of burn ranged from 1.4–3.6 cm, representing a 25%–65% reduction in the thickness of the forest floor layer. Most of the smaller diameter (<3.0 cm) woody surface fuels were consumed, along with a significant proportion of the larger downed woody material. A high degree of fuel consumption occurred in the understory and overstory canopy with very little material less than 1.0 cm in diameter remaining. The documentation of fire behaviour, fire danger, and fire weather conditions carried out during ICFME permitted the evaluation of several empirically based North American fire behaviour prediction systems and models.

A radiation-driven model for crown fire spread

2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (8) ◽  
pp. 1588-1599 ◽  
Author(s):  
B W Butler ◽  
M A Finney ◽  
P L Andrews ◽  
F A Albini
Keyword(s):  
Closed Form ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Radiant Energy ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Crown Fire ◽  
Spread Rate ◽  
Fire Modelling ◽  
Crown Fires ◽  
Environment Variables ◽  
Fire Front

A numerical model for the prediction of the spread rate and intensity of forest crown fires has been developed. The model is the culmination of over 20 years of previously reported fire modeling research and experiments; however, it is only recently that it has been formulated in a closed form that permits a priori prediction of crown fire spread rates. This study presents a brief review of the development and structure of the model followed by a discussion of recent modifications made to formulate a fully predictive model. The model is based on the assumption that radiant energy transfer dominates energy exchange between the fire and unignited fuel with provisions for convective cooling of the fuels ahead of the fire front. Model predictions are compared against measured spread rates of selected experimental fires conducted during the International Crown Fire Modelling Experiment. Results of the comparison indicate that the closed form of the model accurately predicts the relative response of fire spread rate to fuel and environment variables but overpredicts the magnitude of fire spread rates.

World Economy: Prospects and Barriers for Recovery

2012 ◽  
pp. 61-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ershov
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Western World ◽  
Short Time Period ◽  
Market Segments ◽  
Junk Bonds ◽  
The Past ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Us ◽  
Global Liquidity ◽  
Short Time

According to the latest forecasts, it will take 10 years for the world economy to get back to “decent shape”. Some more critical estimates suggest that the whole western world will have a “colossal mess” within the next 5–10 years. Regulators of some major countries significantly and over a short time‑period changed their forecasts for the worse which means that uncertainty in the outlook for the future persists. Indeed, the intensive anti‑crisis measures have reduced the severity of the past problems, however the problems themselves have not disappeared. Moreover, some of them have become more intense — the eurocrisis, excessive debts, global liquidity glut against the backdrop of its deficit in some of market segments. As was the case prior to the crisis, derivatives and high‑risk operations with “junk” bonds grow; budget problems — “fiscal cliff” in the US — and other problems worsen. All of the above forces the regulators to take unprecedented (in their scope and nature) steps. Will they be able to tackle the problems which emerge?

scholarly journals Improved Automated Detection of Subpixel-Scale Inundation—Revised Dynamic Surface Water Extent (DSWE) Partial Surface Water Tests

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 374 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Jones
Keyword(s):  
Surface Water ◽  
Mixture Models ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Depth Estimation ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Commission Error ◽  
Dynamic Surface ◽  
In Situ Data ◽  
The Us ◽  
Spectral Mixture

In order to produce useful hydrologic and aquatic habitat data from the Landsat system, the U.S. Geological Survey has developed the “Dynamic Surface Water Extent” (DSWE) Landsat Science Product. DSWE will provide long-term, high-temporal resolution data on variations in inundation extent. The model used to generate DSWE is composed of five decision-rule based tests that do not require scene-based training. To allow its general application, required inputs are limited to the Landsat at-surface reflectance product and a digital elevation model. Unlike other Landsat-based water products, DSWE includes pixels that are only partially covered by water to increase inundation dynamics information content. Previously published DSWE model development included one wetland-focused test developed through visual inspection of field-collected Everglades spectra. A comparison of that test’s output against Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) in situ data confirmed the expectation that omission errors were a prime source of inaccuracy in vegetated environments. Further evaluation exposed a tendency toward commission error in coniferous forests. Improvements to the subpixel level “partial surface water” (PSW) component of DSWE was the focus of this research. Spectral mixture models were created from a variety of laboratory and image-derived endmembers. Based on the mixture modeling, a more “aggressive” PSW rule improved accuracy in herbaceous wetlands and reduced errors of commission elsewhere, while a second “conservative” test provides an alternative when commission errors must be minimized. Replication of the EDEN-based experiments using the revised PSW tests yielded a statistically significant increase in mean overall agreement (4%, p = 0.01, n = 50) and a statistically significant decrease (11%, p = 0.009, n = 50) in mean errors of omission. Because the developed spectral mixture models included image-derived vegetation endmembers and laboratory spectra for soil groups found across the US, simulations suggest where the revised DSWE PSW tests perform as they do in the Everglades and where they may prove problematic. Visual comparison of DSWE outputs with an unusual variety of coincidently collected images for locations spread throughout the US support conclusions drawn from Everglades quantitative analyses and highlight DSWE PSW component strengths and weaknesses.

Is the firearm epidemic in the US getting worse?

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
D Tedesco ◽  
K Y C Adja ◽  
F Rallo ◽  
C Reno ◽  
M P Fantini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Suicide Attempts ◽  
National Level ◽  
Gun Violence ◽  
Public Health Issue ◽  
Western World ◽  
Diagnostic Code ◽  
The Us ◽  
Icd 10 ◽  
Ed Visits ◽  
Annual Decline

Abstract Background The US is the least regulated firearm market in the Western world and firearm violence is a major public health issue. Firearms account for 40,000 deaths in the US annually, which is higher than other high-income countries. Although most of the gun-related deaths in the US are the result of suicide attempts and self-inflicted injuries, nearly 40% of them come from accidents, assaults, or police intervention. Methods We measured the number of non-self-inflicted firearm-related ED visits, by including patients discharged with diagnostic ICD-9-CM (ICD-10 for 2016) codes of accidents, assaults or legal intervention resulting in firearm injuries between 2006-2016. We used data from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUPnet). From the CDC Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research we obtained data on non-suicidal firearm-related deaths over the period 2006-2017. To identify the cause of death we used the ICD-10 codes. Temporal changes of rates of ED visits and deaths were evaluated using Joinpoint Software. Results In 2006 there were a total of 79,998 ED visits with a diagnostic code of firearm-related injury, and this number showed a non-significant 2.7% annual decline between 2006-2013 (p = 0.06) followed by a significant 19.4% annual increase between 2013-2016 (p &lt; 0.05), resulting in 111.305 visits in 2016. The number of non-suicidal firearm-related deaths showed a significant 2.2% annual decline between 2006-2014 (p &lt; 0.05), followed by a significant 10.3% APC (p &lt; 0.05) between 2014-2017. Conclusions Data showed steady rates until 2013 and a striking increasing trend starting from 2013. Firearm-related deaths followed the same trends. Our data show that in the last four detectable years there has been a new concerning wave of gun violence and consequently a higher number of fatalities. Analysis limitations: we used national-level aggregate data and coding accuracy may be not consistent nationwide. Key messages In the last four detectable years there has been a new concerning wave of gun violence and consequently a higher number of fatalities nationwide. The US firearm related deaths epidemic urges for new policies and preventive measures, such as stricter background checks and restrictions on guns ownership.

Experimental assessment of the influence of radiant heat transfer on the transition of a crown fire to settlements

2021 ◽  
pp. 19-26
Author(s):  
Николай Петрович Копылов ◽  
Елена Юрьевна Сушкина ◽  
Александр Евгеньевич Кузнецов ◽  
Виктория Ивановна Новикова
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flow ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Fire Resistance ◽  
Fire Protection ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Radiant Heat ◽  
Radiant Heat Transfer ◽  
Crown Fire ◽  
Fire Front ◽  
The Impact

Проведены экспериментальные исследования влияния лучистого теплообмена на переход верхового лесного пожара на постройки IV и V степеней огнестойкости. Лесной верховой пожар моделировался горением штабеля древесины с интенсивностью тепловыделения, близкой к интенсивности при реальных пожарах. Получена зависимость изменения плотности теплового потока от расстояния до кромки горения. Экспериментально определены температура воздуха с подветренной стороны пожара и плотность выпадения искр в зависимости от расстояния. Проверена эффективность защиты растворами ретардантов деревянных строений от возгорания при лучистом теплообмене между факелом пламени пожара и объектом защиты. Crown fires are the main threat of the combustion transfer from the forest to objects located in it. Fire services dealing with forest fires face the problem how to protect these objects from forest fires. It is proposed to treat the object with retardant solutions before a forest fire approaches. To assess the effectiveness of such tactics for fire protection of objects when exposed to a heat flow from the combustion front there were carried out experiments on large-scale crown fire models. A crown fire is simulated with a pile of wood with a heat release rate of ≈ 13 MW m. The wind is generated by fans, its speed is close to the speed at which a forest fire occurs. Measurements of the heat flux density, medium temperature, and the density of sparks falling downwind of the fire front at different distances and heights were carried out. Calculations were carried out to assess the impact of heat flow on buildings of IV-V degrees of fire resistance. The results obtained are compared with experimental data and they are in good agreement. There have been determined the distances from the fire front at which the fire protection with retardant solutions is effective for structures of IV-V fire resistance degrees at radiant heat exchange.

A brief history of Pakistan–USSR bilateral relations 1947–1991

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (01) ◽  
pp. 171-181
Author(s):  
Muhammad Naveed Ul Hasan Shah ◽  
Muhammad Irfan Mahsud ◽  
Azadar Ali Hamza
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Western World ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Bilateral Relations ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
History Of ◽  
Soviet Invasion ◽  
The Persian Gulf

Pakistan, since 1947 remains under the umbrella of US, as a result, relations of Pakistan were not smooth with anti US states including USSR. The US was to increase its role in the region in order to make secure the largest petroleum reserves in the Persian Gulf. Pakistan’s alignment with the western world was mainly to counter possible Indian aggression, not to lessen the Soviet influence in the region, but the approach was more or less thwarting Soviet interests in the region. Over 3 million Afghan refugees had travelled to Pakistan in the 1st year of Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. The main objective of the USA during the initial stages of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was primarily to ensure that the Soviet exercise would be a costly one. The United States of America supported Afghan militants with the help of Pakistan to organize them against the USSR. A general perception is that US did not want to be directly involved to thwart the Soviet invasion; rather USA handed over the operational aspect of the program to the Pakistan. The Pakistan was in charge of providing the funds and weapons to the mujahedin and setting up training camps. The US remained indecisive over the next course of action in Afghanistan and the Pakistan took the opportunity to carry out its own agenda in Afghanistan to promote their national interests.

The Prosthetic Fantasies and Fallacies of Claude Wheeler

2020 ◽  
pp. 176-205
Author(s):  
Aaron Shaheen
Keyword(s):  
Western World ◽  
Spiritual Renewal ◽  
Italian Futurism ◽  
Prosthetic Limbs ◽  
The Us ◽  
Spiritual Wholeness ◽  
One Of Ours

The chapter frames Willa Cather’s 1922 novel One of Ours within the context of the US government’s concern about wartime production’s depletion of American forests. Government rehabilitationists and foresters alike sought to place disabled soldiers in forestry-related vocations, which would provide employment and spiritual renewal in nature. These concerns mirror those of Cather’s protagonist Claude Wheeler, who suffers a spiritual amputation at age five when his father cuts down a tree with which Claude had developed an Emersonian kinship. In war he finds spiritual wholeness by offering himself as the prosthetic limbs for those intellectually and artistically superior individuals whom the war has physically and spiritually amputated. Claude’s wholeness comes, ironically, in seeing himself as the trees being cut down for the matériel needed to win the war and civilization to the western world. This self-conceptualization puts him in close company with Italian Futurism, which praises both human mechanization and violence.

Remembering France's glory, securing Europe in the age of Trump

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-44
Author(s):  
Alexandra Gheciu
Keyword(s):  
International Order ◽  
Western World ◽  
Far Right ◽  
National Leader ◽  
The Core ◽  
Political Forces ◽  
The Us ◽  
French Foreign Policy ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Do So

AbstractThese days, when we hear the slogan ‘let's make our country great again’ we almost automatically assume the state concerned is the US, and the leader uttering the slogan is President Trump. This article invites readers to explore the discourse and practices through which another national leader is seeking to restore his country's ‘greatness’ and promote national and international security. The leader concerned is France's Emmanuel Macron. Why focus on the French president? Because since his election he has become the most dynamic European leader, on a mission to enhance France's international stature, and to do so via a broader process of protecting and empowering the EU. More broadly, France stands out as a country whose political leadership has long been committed to the goal of playing a global role. As Pernille Rieker reminds us, ‘Since 1945, French foreign policy has been dominated by the explicit ambition of restoring the country's greatness [la grandeur de la France], justified in terms of French exceptionalism’.1Macron has cast his vision of national/European greatness, security, and international order in opposition to the isolationist, rigidly nationalist visions articulated by his domestic opponents and, internationally, by President Trump. In his view, France and Europe can only be secure if they defeat the illiberal ideas advocated by the increasingly vocal political forces, particularly far-right movements, seeking to undermine the core values and multilateral principles of the post-1945 international order. Under these circumstances, an analysis of Macron's policies and practices of grandeur can help us gain a better understanding of the competition between liberal and illiberal worldviews – a competition that is increasingly pronounced within the Western world.

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