Improving a pest management tool for scenario analysis of economic populations of Globodera pallida

Summary Globodera pallida is the most damaging pest of potato in the UK. This work underpins enhancement of a well-established, web-based scenario analysis tool for its management by recommending additions and modifications of its required inputs and a change in the basis of yield loss estimates. The required annual decline rate of the dormant egg population is determined at the individual field sample level to help define the required rotation length by comparing the viable egg content of recovered cysts to that of newly formed cysts for the same projected area. The mean annual decline was 20.4 ± 1.4% but ranged from 4.0 to 39.7% annum−1 at the field level. Further changes were based on meta-analysis of previous field trials. Spring rainfall in the region where a field is located and cultivar tolerance influence yield loss. Tolerance has proved difficult to define for many UK potato cultivars in field trials but uncertainty can be avoided without detriment by replacing it with determinacy integers. They are already determined to support optimisation of nitrogen application rates. Multiple linear regression estimates that loss caused by pre-plant populations of up to 20 viable eggs (g soil)−1 varies from ca 0.2 to 2.0% (viable egg)−1 (g soil)−1 depending on cultivar determinacy and spring rainfall. Reliability of the outcomes from scenario analysis requires validation in field trials with population densities over which planting is advisable.

Emphysema-Predominant COPD Had a Greater 5-Year Mortality and a Worse Annual Decline in Lung Function Than Airway Obstruction-Predominant COPD or Asthma at Initial Same Degree of Airflow Obstruction

Background and Objectives: We studied whether the extent of exertional oxygen desaturation and emphysema could cause greater mortality in COPD and asthma independent of airflow obstruction. Materials and Methods: We performed a 5-year longitudinal observational study in COPD and asthma patients who matched for airflow obstruction severity. All subjects performed a 6-min walk test (6MWT) and high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) and followed spirometry and oxygen saturation (SpO2) during the 6MWT every 3–6 months. Overall survival was recorded. Cumulative survival curves were performed according to the Kaplan–Meier method and compared with the log-rank test. Results: The COPD group had higher emphysema scores, higher Δinspiratory capacities (ICs) and lower SpO2 during the 6MWT, which showed a greater yearly decline in FEV1 (40.6 mL) and forced vital capacity (FVC) (28 mL) than the asthma group (FEV1, 9.6 mL; FVC, 1.2 mL; p < 0.05). The emphysema-predominant COPD group had an accelerated annual decline in lung function and worse survival. The nadir SpO2 ≤ 80% and a higher emphysema score were the strong risk factors for mortality in COPD patients. Conclusions: The greater structural changes with a higher emphysema score and greater desaturation during the 6MWT in COPD may contribute to worse yearly decline in FEV1 and higher five-year mortality than in asthma patients with a similar airflow obstruction. The lowest SpO2 ≤ 80% during the 6MWT and emphysema-predominant COPD were the strong independent factors for mortality in chronic obstructive airway disease patients.

Trends, causes and solutions of maternal mortality in Jinan, China: the epidemiology of the MMR in 1991–2020

Background China was one of the few countries to achieve the Millennium Development Goals 5. China had taken many effective measures to reduce maternal mortality ratio (MMR) and has achieved encouraging progress. These measures were worth sharing for other countries to reduce the MMR, but the introduction of these measures from the national perspective was too grand, and the measures implemented in a city and the results achieved were more valuable. However, there were few studies on the prevalence and trends of prolonged maternal mortality in a city. In this study, we mainly introduced the prevalence of the MMR in Jinan,China from 1991 to 2020, analyzed the causes of trends and put forward some solutions to the difficulty existing in the process of reducing the MMR,hoping to serve as a model for some developing cities to reduce MMR. Methods We collected maternal mortality data from paper records, electronic files and network platforms. The time trend of MMR was tested by Cochran-Armitage Test (CAT). We divided the study period into three stages with 10 years as a stage and the Chi-square test or Fisher’s exact test was used to test the difference in MMR of different periods. Results From 1991 to 2020, We counted 1,804,162 live births and 323 maternal deaths, and the MMR was 17.93 per 100,000 live births. The MMR declined from 44.06 per 100,000 live births in 1991 to 5.94 per 100,000 live births in 2020, with a total decline of 86.52% and an annual decline of 2.89%. The MMR declined by 88.54% in rural areas, with an average annual decline 2.95%, faster than that in urban areas (82.06, 2.73%). From 1991 to 2020, the top five causes of maternal deaths were obstetric haemorrhage (4.55 per 100,000 live births), amniotic fluid embolism (3.27 per 100,000 live births), pregnancy-induced hypertension (2.61 per 100,000 live births), heart disease (2.33 per 100,000 live births) and other medical complications (2.05 per 100,000 live births). Postpartum hemorrhage, amniotic fluid embolism, pregnancy-induced hypertension showed a downward trend (P < 0.05) and other medical complications showed an upward trend (P < 0.05). Conclusions Subsidy for hospitalized delivery of rural women, free prenatal check-ups for pregnant women and rapid referral system between hospitals have contributed to reducing MMR in Jinan. However, it was still necessary to strengthen the treatment of obstetric hemorrhage by ensuring blood supply, reduce the MMR due to medical complications by improving the skills of obstetricians to deal with medical diseases, and reduce the MMR by strengthening the allocation of emergency equipment in county hospitals and the skills training of doctors.

Utilization and Expenditures of Vertebral Augmentation Continue to Decline: An Analysis in Fee-For-Service (FFS) Recipients from 2009 to 2018

BACKGROUND: Despite the high prevalence of vertebral compression fractures (VCFs) associated with refractory pain, deformity, or progressive neurological symptoms, minimally invasive vertebral augmentation procedures, including vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty, have been declining in their relative utilization, along with expenditures. OBJECTIVES: This investigation was undertaken to assess utilization and expenditures for vertebral augmentation procedures, including vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty, in the fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare population from 2009 to 2018. STUDY DESIGN: The present study was designed to assess utilization and expenditures in all settings, for all providers in the FFS Medicare population from 2009 to 2018 in the United States. In this manuscript: • A patient was described as receiving vertebral augmentation over the course of the year. • An episode was considered as one treatment per region per day utilizing primary codes only. • Services or procedures were considered to be procedures including multiple levels. A standard 5% national sample of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) physician outpatient billing claims data for those enrolled in the FFS Medicare program from 2009 to 2018 was utilized. All the expenditures were presented with allowed costs and adjusted for inflation to 2018 US dollars. RESULTS: In 2009, there were 76,860 episodes of vertebral augmentation with a rate of 168 per 100,000 Medicare population, which declined to 58,760, or 99 per 100,000 population for a total decline of 41%, or an annual rate of decline of 5.7% per 100,000 Medicare population. Vertebroplasty interventions declined more dramatically than kyphoplasty from 2009. Total episodes of vertebroplasty were 27,380 with an annual rate of 60 per 100,000 Medicare population, decreasing to 9,240, or 16 per 100,000 Medicare population, a 66% decline in episodes and a 74% decline in overall rate with an annual decline of 11.4% and 13.9%. In contrast, kyphoplasty interventions were 49,480, for a rate per 100,000 population of 108 in 2009 compared to 49,520 in 2018 with a rate of 83, for a decrease of 23% and 2.9% annual decrease. Evaluation of expenditures showed a net decrease of $30,102,809, or 8%, from $378,758,311 in 2009 to $348,655,502 in 2018. However, inflation-adjusted expenditures decreased overall by 21% and 3% annually from $443,147,324 in 2009 to $345,655,502 in 2018. In addition, inflation-adjusted total expenditures per 100,000 Medicare population decreased from $967,549 to $584,992, for an overall decrease of 40%, or an annual decrease of 5%. Per patient expenditures decreased 2% overall with 0% decrease per year. LIMITATIONS: Vertebral augmentation procedures were assessed only in the FFS Medicare service population. This excluded over 30% of the Medicare population, which is enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows a significant decline in relative utilization patterns of vertebroplasty and kyphoplasty procedures, along with reductions in overall expenditures. The inflation-adjusted total expenditures of kyphoplasty and vertebroplasty decreased 21% with an annual decline of 3%. The inflation-adjusted expenditures per 100,000 of Medicare population decreased 40% overall and 5% per year. In addition, vertebroplasty has seen substantial declines in utilization and expenditure patterns compared to kyphoplasty procedures, which showed trends of decline. KEY WORDS: Osteoporosis, osteoporotic compression fracture, vertebroplasty, kyphoplasty, vertebral augmentation, expenditures, inflation-adjusted, utilization

Temporal Trends in the Severity and Mortality of Neonatal Hypoxic-Ischemic Encephalopathy in the Era of Hypothermia

<b><i>Introduction:</i></b> There is a paucity of studies examining temporal trends in the incidence and mortality of moderate-to-severe hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) during the last decade of therapeutic hypothermia (TH). <b><i>Methods:</i></b> Multicenter cross-sectional study of all infants ≥35 weeks gestational age diagnosed with moderate-to-severe HIE within 6 h of birth in an extensive region of Spain between 2011 and 2019, in order to detect trend changes over time in the (1) annual incidence, (2) severity of neurological and systemic organ involvement, and (3) neonatal death from HIE. <b><i>Results:</i></b> Annual incidence rate of moderate-to-severe HIE was 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.7–0.97) per 1,000 births, without trend changes over time (<i>p</i> = 0.8), although the proportion of severe HIE infants showed an average annual decline of 0.86 points (95% CI 0.75–0.98). There were 102 (70%) infants diagnosed with moderate HIE and 44 (30%) with severe HIE. TH was offered to 139/146 (95%) infants. Infants with clinical and/or electrical seizures showed a decreasing trend from 56 to 28% (<i>p</i> = 0.006). Mortality showed a nonstatistically significant decline (<i>p</i> = 0.4), and the severity of systemic damage showed no changes (<i>p</i> = 0.3). Obstetric characteristics remained unchanged, while higher perinatal pH values (<i>p</i> = 0.03) and Apgar scores (<i>p</i> = 0.05), and less need for resuscitation (<i>p</i> = 0.07), were found over time. <b><i>Conclusion:</i></b> The annual incidence of moderate-to-severe HIE has stabilized at around 1 per 1,000 births, with a temporal trend toward a decrease in severe HIE infants and a slight decline of mortality. No association was found between temporal trends and changes in perinatal/obstetric characteristics over time.

Declining risk of ischemic heart disease over time in rheumatoid arthritis: 1821 patients from 1972 to 2017.

Objectives: To evaluate trends of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and ischemic heart disease (IHD) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients compared with the general population over time. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 1821 RA patients diagnosed from 1972 to 2013. The total population of the same county (Hordaland, Norway) and time period was used for comparison. Information on AMI and IHD events was obtained from hospital patient administrative systems or cardiovascular registries. We estimated incidence rates and standardized event ratios (SER) compared with the general population by Poisson regression.Results: There was an average annual decline of 1.6% in age- and sex-adjusted AMI incidence rates from 1972 to 2017 (incidence rate ratio 0.984, 95% CI 0.971–0.998). Excess events in RA patients compared with the general population declined on average 1.3% per year for AMI and 2.3% for IHD from 1972 to 2014. The total RA cohort had 49% (SER 1.49, 95% CI 1.30–1.69) more AMI events and 63% (SER 1.63, 95% CI 1.52–1.74) more IHD events compared with the general population. There were no significant excess AMI and IHD events for RA patients diagnosed after 1998 compared with the general population.Conclusion: Incidence rates and excess events of AMI and IHD in RA patients declined from 1972 to 2017. There were no excess AMI or IHD events in RA patients diagnosed after 1998 compared with the general population.

Association of blood pressure after peritoneal dialysis initiation with the decline rate of residual kidney function in newly-initiated peritoneal dialysis patients

Background Lower blood pressure (BP) levels are linked to a slower decline of kidney function in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) without kidney replacement therapy. However, there are limited data on this relation in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Here we evaluated the association of BP levels with the decline of residual kidney function (RKF) in a retrospective cohort study. Methods We enrolled 228 patients whose PD was initiated between 1998 and 2014. RKF was measured as the average of creatinine and urea clearance in 24-hr urine collections. We calculated the annual decline rate of RKF by determining the regression line for individual patients. RKF is thought to decline exponentially, and thus we also calculated the annual decline rate of logarithmic scale of RKF (log RKF). We categorized the patients’ BP levels at 3 months after PD initiation (BP3M) into four groups (Optimal, Normal & High normal, Grade 1 hypertension, Grade 2 & 3 hypertension) according to the 2018 European Society of Cardiology and European Society of Hypertension Guidelines for the management of arterial hypertension. Results The unadjusted, age- and sex-adjusted, and multivariable-adjusted decline rate of RKF and log RKF decreased significantly with higher BP3M levels (P for trend <0.01). Compared to those of the Optimal group, the multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence interval) for the faster side of the median decline rate of RKF and log RKF were 4.04 (1.24–13.2) and 5.50 (1.58–19.2) in the Grade 2 and 3 hypertension group, respectively (p<0.05). Conclusions Higher BP levels after PD initiation are associated with a faster decline in RKF among PD patients.

Long-term effect of alpha-1-antitrypsin augmentation therapy on the decline of FEV1 in deficient patients: an analysis of the AIR database

BackgroundPatients with ZZ (Glu342Lys) alpha-1-antitrypsin deficiency (ZZ-AATD) who received augmentation therapy with alpha-1-antitrypsin (AAT) in randomised controlled trials over 2–3 years, failed to show a significant reduction of the annual decline of FEV1.MethodsTo compare the trajectory of FEV1 change during 4 or more years in ZZ-AATD patients with emphysema receiving or not receiving intravenous augmentation therapy, a retrospective analysis of FEV1 values entered in the Alpha-1 International Registry (AIR) of ZZ-AATD patients from five different European countries: Germany, UK, Spain, Italy and The Netherlands was performed. The post-bronchodilator FEV1%predicted values for baseline and follow-up over time from patients were analysed using linear mixed effects models.ResultsData of 374 patients were analysed: 246 untreated and 128 treated with intravenous AAT augmentation therapy. The mean follow-up duration of the untreated group was 8.60 (sd±3.34) years and 8.59 (±2.62) years for the treated group. The mixed effects model analysis showed a mean FEV1 decline of −0.931% predicted per year (95% confidence interval −1.144 to −0.718) in the untreated group and a decline of −1.016% predicted per year (−1.319 to −0.7145) in the treated group. The likelihood ratio test showed no difference between the two groups (p=0.71).ConclusionIn our study population, we could not detect a significant difference in the annual decline of FEV1 by AAT augmentation treatment over an average period of 8.6 years. Other approaches are needed to validate any benefit of augmentation therapy.

Among respiratory symptoms, wheeze associates most strongly with impaired lung function in adults with asthma: a long-term prospective cohort study

BackgroundAsthma is a common disease and a major public health concern. Respiratory symptoms are related to its prognosis, which in turn associates with lung function. Still this association on a long-term basis is not entirely understood.AimTo study the association of the type and number of respiratory symptoms with FEV1 and FEV1 decline in women and men with asthma.MethodA population-based cohort of adults with asthma was examined at study entry between 1986 and 2001 and at follow-up between 2012 and 2014, and n=977 had valid measurements of FEV1 on both occasions. Data regarding respiratory symptoms at study entry (recurrent wheeze, dyspnoea, longstanding cough and productive cough) were analysed in relation to FEV1 and annual decline in FEV1, both unadjusted and adjusted for other potentially associated factors by linear regression.ResultsFor both sexes recurrent wheeze and dyspnoea were associated with lower FEV1 at study entry and follow-up, while productive cough was associated with lower FEV1 only at follow-up. No associations were found between the type of symptoms and annual decline in FEV1. In adjusted analyses, the association between recurrent wheeze and lower FEV1 both at study entry and follow-up remained significant among women. Also, the association between a higher number of symptoms with lower FEV1 both at study entry and follow-up were present for both sexes and remained after adjustment.ConclusionsParticularly recurrent wheeze and a higher number of respiratory symptoms may predict lower lung function also in the long run among women and men with asthma.