PREDICTING US 2001 RECESSION, COMPOSITE LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS, STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND MONETARY POLICY

2006 ◽  
Vol 51 (03) ◽  
pp. 343-363
Author(s):  
MEHDI MOSTAGHIMI
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Structural Change ◽  
Bayesian Models ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Statistical Decision ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Political Events ◽  
The Us ◽  
Leading Economic Indicators ◽  
Year 2000

In an attempt to predict a peak in the US economy using a classical statistical decision methodology and a Bayesian methodology and using the 1996 revised composite leading economic indicators (CLI), it is learned that the Bayesian models have generally outperformed the classical statistical ones and, among the Bayesian models, the two using two and three consecutive CLI growth rates are superior in reliability and in accuracy. These two models, however, failed to correctly predict the 2001 recession. In investigating the reasons behind their failures, we learned that: (1) if the concurrent data for the economic structure of 1983–1999 are used for the prediction, they have also been able to predict the 2001 recession correctly, but their overall reliability is not as strong as before; (2) given the overwhelming weight of the monetary policy tools in the CLI-1996 design and the combination of the economic and political events in the year 2000, the less than expected effectiveness of the monetary policy since 2001 has contributed to this failure; and (3) a possible structural change in the US economy since 2000 has also contributed to this prediction failure.

CHALLENGES OF DEVELOPMENT OF AN ANTI-CRISIS STRATEGY TO OVERCOME THE CORONOVIRUS PANDEMIC AND ITS CONSEQUENCES

2020 ◽  
pp. 68-83
Author(s):  
Elena Lutskaya ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Global Markets ◽  
Federal Reserve System ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Reserve System

The article examines the views of Western researchers on overcoming the COVID-19 crisis and its consequences. The main focus is on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve system - the most developed financial system that affects both the US economy and global markets.

scholarly journals Kuznets meets Lucas: structural change and human capital

2018 ◽  
Vol 71 (4) ◽  
pp. 848-873
Author(s):  
Edgar Cruz
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Structural Change ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Human Capital Accumulation ◽  
Relative Prices ◽  
Services Sector ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Balanced Growth Path ◽  
Cross Country

Abstract This paper develops a multi-sector growth model with human capital accumulation. In this model, human capital induces structural change through two channels: changes in relative prices and changes in the investment rate of physical and human capital. We show that the specifications of the model give rise to a generalized balanced growth path (GBGP). Furthermore, We show that the model is consistent with (i) the decline in agriculture, (ii) the hump-shaped of manufacturing, (iii) the rise of the services sector, and (iv) the path of human capital accumulation in the US economy during the 20th century. Given the findings, We outline that imbalances between physical and human capital contribute to explain cross-country differences in the pace of structural change.

scholarly journals The Federal Reserve Banks New Monetary Policy Tool

2012 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 533
Author(s):  
David Gordon
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Federal Reserve Bank ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Policy Tool ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
The Us ◽  
Demand Deposit

The Federal Reserve Bank (FED) plays a vital role in the US economy. The roles and functions of the Fed are discussed here. This paper also offers an explanation of the traditional tools the Fed uses to conduct monetary policy. Open market operations are explained. The important role of the discount rate is discussed. The legally required reserve ratios are also explored. This author believes that the Fed has recently created a new tool. This tool is the payment of interest on demand deposit accounts at the Fed. This new tool is explained and its ramifications explored. The functions of monetary policy are also expanded upon in this paper.

scholarly journals Fiscal Foundations of Inflation: Imperfect Knowledge

2018 ◽  
Vol 108 (9) ◽  
pp. 2551-2589 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Eusepi ◽  
Bruce Preston
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Wealth Effects ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Ricardian Equivalence ◽  
The Public ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Imperfect Knowledge ◽  
Consumption Demand

This paper proposes a theory of the fiscal foundations of inflation based on imperfect knowledge and learning. Because imperfect knowledge breaks Ricardian equivalence, the scale and composition of the public debt matter for inflation. High and moderate duration debt generates wealth effects on consumption demand that impairs the intertemporal substitution channel of monetary policy: aggressive monetary policy is required to anchor inflation expectations. Counterfactual experiments conducted in an estimated model reveal that the US economy would have been substantially more volatile over the Great Inflation and Great Moderation periods if US debt levels had been those observed in Italy or Japan. (JEL D84, E31, E32, E52, E62, H63)

scholarly journals FINANCIAL SECTOR INTERCONNECTEDNESS AND MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 1074-1101
Author(s):  
Alessandro Barattieri ◽  
Maya Eden ◽  
Dalibor Stevanovic
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
The United States ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregression ◽  
Net Worth ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Using Data

We present a stylized model that illustrates how interbank trading can reduce the sensitivity of lending to entrepreneurs' net worth, thus affecting the transmission mechanism of monetary policy through the credit channel. We build a model-consistent measure of interconnectedness and document that, in the United States, this measure has increased substantially during the period 1952–2016. Finally, interacting the measure of interconnectedness in a structural vector autoregression and a factor-augmented vector autoregression for the US economy, we find that the impulse responses of several real and financial variables to monetary policy shocks are dampened as interconnectedness increases. We confirm the same result using data from 10 Euro area countries for the period 1999–2016.

scholarly journals The Aftermath of the Tariff War on China

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 22
Author(s):  
Nicholas Bitar
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Shed Light ◽  
Trump Administration

Will the US sustain its economy after the tariff war with China, or will the economy regress? This paper offers a conceptual framework, based on the tenets of New-Keynesian theory, to answer this question. I anticipate that the tariff will have a positive effect on the GDP of the US economy in the short run while prices will rise. When adding the most recent reforms of interest cut by the Fed to 1.75% in September (2019) the model concludes a better outcome. Followed by an expansionary monetary policy by reducing the interest rate, the aftermath of the tariff war on China seems to have a positive impact on the US income and productivity. Obviously, some critics to the Trump Administration indeed shed light on the curtailed global and US social welfare that is caused by the inflationary effect of the tariff war, in addition to the deteriorating conditions for some trading sectors in the US which would certainly lead to unemployment. But the benefits to the US economy that are translated by the New-Keynesian theoretical framework show a positive impact on US production, employment, and GDP.

scholarly journals Welfare-Based Monetary Policy Rules in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Us Economy

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel Juillard ◽  
Philippe Karam ◽  
Douglas Laxton ◽  
Paolo A. Pesenti
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Policy Rules ◽  
Monetary Policy Rules ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us

Section II. Prospects for North America and Japan

1998 ◽  
Vol 166 ◽  
pp. 35-43
Author(s):  
Nigel Pain
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Financial Conditions ◽  
External Demand ◽  
The Us ◽  
Year 2000 ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Economic Outlook

The US economy continued to expand strongly in the first half of this year. GDP rose by 2 per cent compared to the latter half of last year, broadly in line with the pace of growth observed throughout 1997. The unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since 1970, with private sector demand continuing to reflect the impact of the sustained appreciation in equity prices since 1994. We expect GDP growth to be a little under 3½ per cent this year. Recent events have sharply changed the short-term economic outlook for the coming months. Growth is now projected to slow significantly, with domestic demand pressures easing and external demand remaining weak. The correction in equity prices and the tighter financial conditions facing many companies should begin to exert a significant drag on economic growth, in spite of likely further relaxation in the stance of monetary policy. GDP is expected to rise by around 1½ per cent both in 1999 and in the year 2000. If credit market conditions were to tighten further, or asset prices to show a renewed decline, then the economy could well move close to outright recession by the end of next year.

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